Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition

Two new polls show little sign of slackening in the momentum to Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition now enjoying landslide-winning leads.

The latest monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll is a chilling result for Labor, recording a 56-44 lead for the Coalition from primary votes of Coalition 48% (up three), Labor 29% (down one) and Greens 13% (down one). I presume the two-party figure to be based on previous election preferences, though Fairfax can be a bit inconsistent on this score. The leads for the Coalition in last month’s poll were 54-46 on respondent-allocated and 53-47 on previous election (UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald reports the respondent-allocated result in the latest poll was 57-43). On personal ratings, Turnbull is up a point to a stratospheric 69%, with approval down one to 16%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 29% and up one to 57%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 67-21 to 69-18. The Fairfax-Ipsos poll is conducted Thursday to Saturday by landline and mobile phone from a sample of around 1400. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.

The Ipsos result finally brings another pollster into line with Roy Morgan, whose fortnightly result today maintained recent form in recording a big lead to the Coalition. Primary votes were Coalition 46% (down one), Labor 28% (down half) and Greens 14.5% (steady). Two-party preferred results were 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 56.5-43.5), and 55-45 on previous election preferences (steady). This poll series combines face-to-face and SMS polling conducted over two weekends, in this case from a sample of 3167.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is still at 52-48 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). Also featured is a semi-regular question on “party attributes”, the main change on a year ago being that the Liberal Party is more likely to be seen as divided (up ten to 56%), but with a better team of leaders (up ten to 48%). Respondents were asked to nominate the three most important election issues from a list, the biggest movement since the previous such question in April 2014 being a rise in “security and the war on terrorism” from 5% to 17%. A question on the government’s toughness on asylum seekers produces broadly similar results to April, with too tough up three to 25%, too soft up two to 29%, and just right down three to 31%. Fifty-four per cent support offshore detention of asylum seekers, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,335 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. shellbell

    [William Street, that “boulevard” which separates the CBD from Kings Cross]

    I used to stay in a hotel there often in the 90’s for work.

    The guy with the axe randomly attacking people put me off the place.

  2. Breaking my own rule, cc you really are an ignorant tossed who seems to revel in your ignorance.

    Forget India, I have visited fairly isolated villages in Myanmar where the villagers have relatively cheap solar panels connected to batteries sufficient to power satellite TVs and other devices that they might need.
    Coal and the infrastructure that goes with it is a complete joke in these situations. These people might lack your largely wasted level of education, but they leave you for dust as far as intelligence is concerned.

  3. billie@1188

    Bemused, The CSIRO climate modelling shows that in some parts of Australia the number of days over 35 degrees is expected to double or triple by 2050.

    By contrast in the 1900s the Wimmera had 5 days over 35 degrees each summer

    In your younger days houses would be shaded by trees, a well placed large tree can shield a house from the summer afternoon sun and houses relied on cross ventilation. Apartment dwellers who open their windows hear their neighbours TV programs but get limited breezes if the buildings are too close together

    Yes, I don’t dispute any of that.

    It is getting more frequent, but as yet the temperatures are still within the past extremes. Wait till they start regularly going higher!

  4. [“@nswpolice: #Darlinghurst building search ongoing. Improtant: There is no evidence this is a terrorism-related incident]

    The media will be disappointed.

  5. daretotread

    When a state governor Indian PM Modi put a heavy emphasis on providing villages with electricity by way of solar and bioenergy that was produced by the locals.

  6. Agence France-Presse now reports two people arrested in the St-Denis raid.

    The information from Paris now is coming thick and fast, and it is advisable to treat numbers of dead, injured and arrested as provisional until this can be properly confirmed.

  7. Le Monde and other French media say they have confirmation from police and judicial sources that three of the people targeted in the police operation are dead, including a woman who blew herself up with an explosive belt.

    The Guardian has not yet been able to verify this independently.

  8. Poroti

    Absolutely.

    Coal fired electrity may be cheap and appropriate for large scale manufacturing, but in places where ther is no an existing grid, solar/wind/generators will work out cheaper.

  9. “@ellensandell: Good news! VicGov just withdrew $25m coal grant. They’re starting to feel pressure on coal! Well done to all who campaigned&helped it happen”

  10. It’s interesting how many different websites and broadcast outlets around the world have picked up Waleed Aly’s editorial about what ISIL wants us to do. I found this article about it on Vox, a superb website for explanatory journalism. I wonder how many times an article by Peter Brent, jumped-up tarot card reader and serial bore on the subject of incumbency, has been circulated this widely.

    http://www.vox.com/2015/11/17/9750504/paris-attacks-islamophobia-isis

  11. billie@1218

    Cow dung adds to air pollution. Villagers in Rajahstan cook on solar concentrators and use solar power to charge their mobile phones

    Please try to not upset Cranky with facts like those.

  12. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, November 18, 2015 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    Pell always looks very creepy to me I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could kick him.

    I am not sure. But I would like to test it out. ]

    I’ve just got hold of the following and haven’t started on it yet, but I wonder if Pope Francis regards Pell as one of the good guys in appointing him to re-organise Vatican finances?

    [ Merchants in the Temple: Inside Pope Francis’s Secret Battle Against Corruption in the Vatican By Gianluigi Nuzzi, read by P. J. Ochlan

    Unabridged edition 2015 | 8 hours and 8 mins | ISBN: 1427276196

    From a best-selling author with unprecedented access to Pope Francis, an investigative look at the recent financial scandals at the highest levels of the Vatican.

    A veritable war is waging in the church: On one side, there is Pope Francis’ strong message for one church of the poor and all; on the other there is the old Curia with its endless enemies and the old and new lobbies struggling to preserve their not-so-Christian privileges.

    The old guard do not back down; they are ready to use all means necessary to stay in control and continue the immoral way they conduct their business. They resist reforms sought by Pope Francis and seek to delegitimise their opponents, to isolate those who want to eliminate corruption.

    It’s a war that will determine the future of the church. And if he loses the battle against secular interests and blackmail, Pope Francis could resign, much like his predecessor.

    Based on confidential information – including top-secret documents from inside the Vatican and actual transcripts of Pope Francis’ admonishments to the papal court about the lack of financial oversight and responsibility – Merchants in the Temple illustrates all the undercover work conducted by the Pope since his election and shows the listener who his real enemies are.

    It reveals the instruments Francis is using to reform the Vatican and rid it, once and for all, of the overwhelming corruption traditionally encrusted in the Roman Catholic Church.

    Merchants in the Temple is a startling book that will shock every listener. It’s a story worthy of a Dan Brown novel, with its electrifying details of the trickery and scheming against the papacy – except that it is real. ]

  13. Who says there are only depressing stories in the news these days?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-18/damien-mantach-ex-liberal-charged-over-$1.5m-taken-from-party/6951592

    This one has it all – humour, poetic justice and no innocent victims. Lets all hope for a long trial 🙂

    So many suitable quotes:
    “No honour among thieves?”
    “You can’t govern the nation if you can’t govern yourselves.”
    “People in glass mansions shouldn’t throw stones.”
    “The rate of growth (in crime) will always be higher when the Liberal Party is in office.”
    “We just want to give people a chance to help themselves.”

  14. [I wonder how many times an article by Peter Brent, jumped-up tarot card reader and serial bore on the subject of incumbency, has been circulated this widely.]

    Probably not many. But why him in particular?

  15. William Bowe@1226

    I wonder how many times an article by Peter Brent, jumped-up tarot card reader and serial bore on the subject of incumbency, has been circulated this widely.


    Probably not many. But why him in particular?

    You want Nicholas to look closer to home? 😀

  16. [TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Wednesday, November 18, 2015 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    I’m sure these individuals wished the TURC never happened:]

    I hope I haven’t missed TBA and that its now passed his bed time.

    The ACT Director of Public Prosecutions plans to offer no evidence against the former rugby league player when his case returns to court on October 19.

    30 union reps recommended for charges, one has been cleared of the false charges, 29 left to be cleared through lack of evidence

    news.smh.com.au › Breaking News National

  17. I think the TURC report will end up suffering a similar fate to an average student’s thesis and will remain gathering dust in some damp and mouldy cellar.

  18. William
    tweet from yesterday
    [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits Nov 16 Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
    Earth to tweepland: most Australians would not even know who Waleed Aly is. (Can’t say the same about Hanson.)]

  19. [William Bowe

    Posted Wednesday, November 18, 2015 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    30 union reps recommended for charges, one has been cleared of the false charges …

    If you’re referring to John Setka]

    CFMEU organiser and former Canberra Raider John Lomax

  20. Feb 9, 2012 – Charges of assault and obstruction against CFMEU Assistant Secretary John Setka and former official Matt Hudson were thrown out

  21. dtt

    [ Coal might be cheap sometimes but remember you need to did it out of the ground and TRANSPORT it. The cost of transport alone is significant. ]

    The LCOE model “Levelized Cost of Energy” (which is what nearly everybody uses) takes all this into account. But even so, it typically overstate the true cost of coal for countries that already burn it, since all the necessary infrastructure has typically already been built.

    [ It is a combination of factors. As technology improves you will see the cost of solar and wind plummeting. Especially in poor rural communities, the cost of coal fires electricity is prohibitive, largely because of the cost of installing distribution mechanisms. ]

    Most models take this into account. Coal is still either cheaper, or just as cheap. This is what the models tell us.

    [ Take India for example. Many (possibly most) people do not have sewage or running water, so an electricty connection is low priority. Indeed connecting electricy to a footpath, or a peice of tin propped up by planks is difficult. For such a population solar devices are the go – radios, TVs, PCs, bicycles, pumps, even cooking appliances will be the future, not some 20th century electricity grid tachnology. ]

    Everything you say is true. Yet both India and China expect to burn more coal in future, not less. This point is usually ignored by people who expect new technology to solve our problems. It isn’t going to.

  22. One of you will no doubt rush to correct my delusions, but… What the hell is with the confected outrage over the comments made by the Grand Mufti of Australia? He seemed to be stating the bleeding obvious.

    I worry that we’re doomed to an eternal cycle of violence (a la Israel) if we’re never willing to acknowledge that we helped knock down the hornet nest and try not to do it again.

  23. Posted earlier more evidence that Turnbull’s government is no better than Abbott’s.

    If those “doctors’ wives” smell a rat Turnbull’s popularity will head south.

    [http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/18/coalition-unexpectedly-pushes-on-with-green-lawfare-legislation-plan?CMP=share_btn_tw]

  24. Dave at 1223

    I’m no great fan of the Catholic church but the current Pope seems to be decent. He’d better be careful therefore as history has not been good to do-gooders in the Vatican.
    More power to him I say.

  25. dave

    The Vatican is a nest of vipers, IMO.

    They led the protection racket that allowed pedos to keep going for decade, after decade, after decade.

  26. [If ever there was summer to bring in what new talent exists, this is it – but instead we are reselecting Shaun Marsh (ave 33) to play with his brother (ave 25).]

    Bit harsh on Shaun, since he got back into the team (2014) he has only had 16 innings including a century a 99 and two 50’s. He only had two innings against England. His average has been 37.33.

    Mitch’s test batting hs been awful, he was ridiculously under bowled in Perth unless they are nursing him to ensure the brothers can help the scorchers to their 3rd 20/20 win.

  27. MH @ 1241

    They have probably received inspiration from Samarco – wonderful exemplar of what happens when green and red tape suffocate free enterprise…

    Oh, wait…

  28. CE

    If the Pope were decent he would release all the documentation on the Australian RC’s pedophiles, on the priests and bishops, on who knew what, and on who covered what up, and when.

    Do not hold your breath.

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