The BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves half a point in favour of the Coalition this week, which is presumably to do with those long lost 50-50 results fading out of the system, because there was no real movement from either Essential Research and Roy Morgan this week. With this they chalk up another two on the seat projection – one in Queensland, and one in Western Australia – and surpass their currently parliamentary tally of 90 seats. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
A beefy selection of preselection news this week:
• With its preselections to be determined next weekend, Labor’s struggling Western Australian operation is undergoing an imbroglio encompassing two of its three sitting members, and its yet-to-be-determined candidate for the state’s most marginal Liberal seat. Gary Gray, who has held the seat of Brand since 2007, has been refusing to sign a pledge that binds nominating candidates to the state platform and state conference as well as their national equivalents, and commits them to “obey the directions” of the state secretary in campaigning for their prospective office. As far as I can tell, fealty to the state platform is a not unusual feature of pledges required by Labor’s state branches, but it is generally phrased it in a way that places a higher premium on caucus solidarity. However, obedience of the state secretary appears to be peculiar to the Western Australian branch. The pledge is not new, but Gray objected to signing it on this occasion because the state platform opposes uranium mining and coal seam gas development, and struck out the offending sections on submitting his form. Consequently, the state party administration ruled the applications inadmissible. Complicating the matter is that Perth MP Alannah MacTiernan likewise made amendments to the pledge on her nomination form. Gray is taking his stand in the face of a united front of Left unions who want him to make way in Brand for Adam Woodage, described by Andrew Probyn of The West Australian as “a 28-year-old fly-in, fly out electrician on the Gorgon project”. However, the party’s national executive, including its most powerful representative of the Left, Anthony Albanese, is having none of it. As well as ordering the state branch to accept the nominations, invoking legal advice that the state pledge is inconsistent with national party rules, it has made clear it will intervene on Gray’s behalf if the matter is pursued any further.
• The Left unions in Western Australia have also irritated the party’s national heavyweights in pushing for Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang to take the nomination for the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-west. This would involve the defeat of Labor’s Right-backed candidate for September’s Canning by-election, Matt Keogh, and the wastage of a lot of effort the party put into promoting him to voters in Armadale, which stands to be transferred from Canning to the new seat. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports there are “expectations” within the party that the national executive will also intervene here if Keogh is not selected.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the New South Wales draft redistribution has resulted in two Labor heavyweights eyeing off neighbouring seats. One is Anthony Albanese, who is said to be looking at moving south from Grayndler to Barton. Barton was gained for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Nick Varvaris, but the new boundaries turn a 0.3% Liberal margin into a notional Labor margin of 7.5% by detaching Liberal-voting Sans Souci and adding southern Marrickville from Grayndler. Albanese’s exit would present a golden opportunity to the Greens, who now dominate the area at state level but have never looked like overcoming Albanese’s personal vote federally. Heath Aston of Fairfax reports Jim Casey, state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, is seeking Greens preselection for the seat. Bruce Knobloch, said to be aligned with Senator Lee Rhiannon and her hard Left tendency, reportedly had designs on the Grayndler preselection but will now seek to run in Sydney, which would pit him against Tanya Plibersek.
• At the other end of town, Chris Bowen is reportedly looking at moving on from his western Sydney seat of McMahon, where the loss of the Labor stronghold of Fairfield has cut his margin from 5.4% to 2.1%. Fairfield is set to be transferred to Fowler, which is held for Labor by the rather lower-profile figure of Chris Hayes. However, Hayes is reportedly reluctant to make way for Bowen.
• The Liberals in South Australia have preselected Nicolle Flint, a former columnist for The Advertiser, to succeed Andrew Southcott as their candidate for Boothby when he retires at the next election. Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser reports Flint has “worked as an adviser to state and federal Liberal leaders as well as the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry”. There were six nominees for the preselection, of whom Flint’s most fancied rival was Carolyn Habib, a youth worker and former Marion councillor who ran unsuccessfully in the marginal seat of Elder at last year’s state election.
Truffles has given is nothing at all as yet.
lizzie@49
I think that is pretty much what he intends to do.
Sound good saying nothing.
Why in dog’s name does Truffles have the political capital to be so frickin crap
Victoria
Senator Richard Di Natalie was on 702 this morning. He said basically what we here have been saying. That is why change prime ministers if you are not going to change the country.
He used climate change policy as his example of no change.
MT did flare up defensively when tax avoidance aka minimisation was mentioned.
Just listened to BCassidy. In a nutshell. Truffles and Co moving along nicely. Shorten and Labor not so much
[Sound good saying nothing.]
Needs to work on the “sound good” 🙂 He spent a lot of time waffling about the “Australian ethos of egalitarianism” and then defended family trusts.
victoria@53
Few listeners will be as critical as you and other PBers.
He is sounding what most perceive as “Prime Ministerial”, being all calm and reassuring and not alarming the punters.
He is creating the much derided “vibe”.
Guytaur
So far the msm are giving Turnbull and co an easy ride. Reminds me of when the 2014 budget was brought down. The msm did their best to support it and were surprised that the electorate turned on the govt. Unless and until the polls change in the negative for Turnbull, they will continue on their merry way
bemused
The “vibe” only works when you have real policies people like. So far no change means the “vibe” won’t save them.
victoria
Yes I agree. The narrative has been chosen and stuff reality.
guytaur
If Labor was the one offering “tax reform” in the way Turnbull is now doing, they would be crucified. Yet as bemused said Turnbull has the “vibe”. What a farce
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@arusbridger: Surveillance bill as big a threat to security as to individual liberty Brilliant, by @simonjenkins4 https://t.co/MHfpj7NoyM
If there is no shift in the polls in the next month, Turnbull and co will see it as a green light to proceed with GST increase
guytaur@60
There will be platitudes aplenty when the time comes.
An I don’t think too many voters have a check list of policies they tick off. They end up voting on overall ‘impression’ or ‘vibe’ that has been created by a campaign and the lead up.
victoria@62
He is also tackling some things head on, like the old ‘rule in – rule out’ game so beloved by journalists. He is pushing back and saying he won’t play that.
bemused
The “vibe” narrative strategy will fail at Paris. The international media will not toe the line regarding the “vibe” on climate change.
[Just listened to BCassidy. In a nutshell. Truffles and Co moving along nicely. Shorten and Labor not so much]
I don’t think he was that kind. He did complain that Turnbull isn’t saying much, and then hoped Morrison will add some flesh “later today”. He said words are important and the words Turnbull use are better than the ones Abbott was using.
In a nutshell: “All talk and no action.”
Question
Fair point. But BCassidy gives me the pips. If this were a Labor PM, he would have been far more critical
[He is also tackling some things head on, like the old ‘rule in – rule out’ game so beloved by journalists. He is pushing back and saying he won’t play that.]
True, but conjecture can become difficult to manage.
The game doesn’t start until they announce a GST for the next election (or retreat and say “sorry, we wuz just messin with your heads’). Then we’ll see how reassuring old Malcolm is. As mumbles pointed out recently, Howard and Rudd were soaring high for a while – then they made a few slips and down they went. People are still giving Gekko time to show his policies and the fact that he’s tamed the right wing in his party.
Guytaur@67,
The media (and officials/delegates) at Paris will just see Turnbull as an Abbott extension. Malcolm will be miffed when Canada’s Trudeau get all the attention.
Andrew Elder’s latest:
http://www.andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/11/ecco-journo.html
[Australian political journalism is abysmal. Very Serious Journalists tell us that deeply inadequate politicians really do have the answers for our country, Light Bright and Trite ones insist that they’re not so bad against all the evidence, and then they all unite to describe the inevitable demise not as an indictment on their experience and judgment, but as fickleness and ingratitude on our part.]
guytaur@67
We shall see.
Turnbull will do his best to tap dance around anything unfavourable.
Don’t get me wrong Vic, I think Turnbull is getting an easy ride, but I don’t think it will last forever, especially if he keeps waffling, it will just piss the pundits off.
victoria
If Labor was pushing for a higher GST I am confident we would be seeing the sort of stories generated by the “carbon tax” and it’s effect on electricity prices etc. Pensioners having to huddle around a 60 watt light bulb for warmth as they ate their tin of dog food.
@ItStopsWithMe: New report to be released today: Freedom from Discrimination, explores the lived experience of racism in Australia: https://t.co/wPeUNrVyCb
[44.@GeorgeBludger: Labor doesn’t need to run the GST scare campaign because the electorate is already scared]
That is odd I would have said the electorate is in love with Malcolm and largely have already factored in the GST rise and it was those still invested in repeating the same GST scare (this time it’ll work for sure mate) for the third time that were panicking
Victoria at 53
It is simply that he is not Abbott.
Having seen the media continually ask us what Shorten stands for we are now supposed to content ourselves with the knowledge that Turnbull has the vibe.
This vibe?
http://youtu.be/Ccsdsy0FL9o
And as for his defence of family trusts, well I expect soon the pundits will be telling us it’s un-Australian not to have one
[6.MT did flare up defensively when tax avoidance aka minimisation was mentioned]
Excellent – can I have a show of hands of those who supported Turnbull dodging tax in the Caymans and having declared the labor attack failed.
Stay tuned clowns.
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[The game doesn’t start until they announce a GST for the next election (or retreat and say “sorry, we wuz just messin with your heads’). Then we’ll see how reassuring old Malcolm is.]
Anything would do me really… I’m getting bored 🙂
“@ABCNews24: There are severe #weather warnings in place for parts of New South Wales and Victoria. @BOM_au live on #abcnews24 in 5mins”
poroti
Yep. The msm shit me to no end
rossmcg@80
Yes, it is superficial and will have no impact here, but people do vote on ‘gut feeling’ or ‘vibe’ – call it what you like.
Very few vote on deep policy analysis.
Fess
Thanks for Elder’s latest. He nails it again. Our msm is frickin crap
[57
Question
Needs to work on the “sound good” 🙂 He spent a lot of time waffling about the “Australian ethos of egalitarianism” …]
This is a lot more than waffle.
Political allegiance is about the egalitarian sensibility…about who is best seen to embody it and be able to extend and adapt it.
Abbott’s unpopularity can be attributed, in large part, to his anti-egalitarian positions and an associated anti-modernism.
Egalitarian values (in their various incarnations) is where politics lives in this country. Whoever can claim to best exemplify these values – whoever can turn them into a lived reality for voters – gets to win elections.
To stand back a bit and muse, you can see Turnbull’s dilemma.
The public’s love affair with the Turnbull era has surely exceeded even his own expectations. It is quite staggering to consider that Bludgertrack is now more favourable to the Coalition than the 2013 result, delivered to them on a platter by Labor’s dysfunction.
So Turnbull, from the Coalition facing near certain electoral defeat just a couple of months ago, Turnbull is weighing up this breathtaking reversal of fortune (and no doubt getting just a little giddy) and being told he ought to seize the moment and do something substantial while the good times last.
Turnbull is also loving Shorten’s ineptitude, from floating irrelevancies like the 16-year-old voting age idea to awkward little jigs in the Pacific and ongoing messy questions about his union connections, we now have a mirror image of the Shorten-Abbott scenario. Shorten is Turnbull’s best friend just as Abbott was Turnbull’s.
So does he bite the bullet and go for the GST increase along with a far-reaching package of compensation for the worst off, and enticing income tax cuts for the rest? He would realise a lot of the shine would come off his honeymoon at the very moment he unveils such a plan.
However, having indicated the Goverment will run full term, he’s left with little choice. He can’t go into a Budget next year with the very weakened numbers they are now facing without some kind of a significant plan.
My guess is they will fine-tune the GST plan for several months and announce it in about March.
The msm reported Abbott and thegreat big new carbon tax ad nauseaum. Remembering there was compensation for middle and low income earners. Now we have an increase of a broad tax by 50% being put forward. Where are the headlines of gigantic huge tax etc?!
@StephenLongAus: The gathering financial storm is just one effect of corporate power unbound | George Monbiot https://t.co/w0nC73rkdx
Branch stacking WA style
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/30001800/gloves-come-off-in-fight-for-toohey/
The “vibe” may well end up being a tap dancer with a top hat and cane taxing the poor and cutting tax to the rich.
Bemused, I read a while ago about a study by a US political scientist who said that a lot of people take their guidance from people the know. E.g. someone in the family is told to pay a bit of attention (maybe because they seem the smartest) and tell everyone else what to do. Certainly, that’s not my experience. In my family, I assign that role to myself but nobody listens to me.
briefly,
You snipped my full quote. It is waffle if you defend family trusts in the very next breath.
Bowen Presser now
victoria at 90
I suspect we’re hoping for fairness where fairness doesn’t exist.
Smart family you’ve got K17
“@joeobrien24: Labor’s @Bowenchris media conf on @abcnews24 now. “It’s time for @TurnbullMalcolm to make some decisions”.”
Last night on LL Cassandra Goldie was saying there was no need for GST, and suggested other ways. She was given short shrift by the interviewer.