After a few slightly wobbly results, a Tasmanian state polling series has support for Will Hodgman’s Liberal government back near the levels of its 2014 election landslide.
The latest quarterly poll of state voting intention in Tasmania from EMRS records a big shift to the Liberals since the previous poll, with their primary vote up eight points to 48%, while Labor is down four to 25% and the Greens are down one to 20%. Will Hodgman’s lead over Labor’s Bryan Green as preferred premier has likewise blown out from 49-21 to 56-19. The poll was conducted by telephone from a sample of 1000 respondents from last Sunday to Thursday.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/11/emrs-liberals-rebound-with-abbott-dead.html
EMRS: Liberals Rebound With Abbott Dead Weight Gone
I am interpreting 14-7-4 as the most likely state distribution based on this poll, with 13-8-4 second most likely.
My state aggregate is at 13-8-4 with 13-9-3 next most likely.
29 FP for the ALP was bad – 25% is diabolical. It’s unfortunate the LNP can’t preference the ALP to cut the Greens off at the knees.
Compact Crank. Labor not infrequently does preference the Libs over the Greens but, given that we in Tassie have proportional representation and are not allowed to hand out how to vote cards, this doesn’t mean all that much.
FWIW, I would observe that, from my relatively right of centre point of view, the Tassie Greens are far less obnoxious than their mainland counterparts, being predominantly environmentalists and not especially socialist. Labor, on the other hand, is dominated by the industrial left faction tied to the AMWU and CFMEU. In state elections, I generally put them behind the other two parties.
Yay! Continuing strong results for the Greens. I’m just loving the leadership of Cassy O’Connor, never felt better represented by a politician in my life.
Another piece on this poll:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/11/how-bad-is-bryan-greens-rating.html
How Bad Is Bryan Green’s Rating?