BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Coalition

The Coalition has moved still further ahead in the regularly weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: post-redistribution preselection friction for Labor in both New South Wales and Western Australia.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves half a point in favour of the Coalition this week, which is presumably to do with those long lost 50-50 results fading out of the system, because there was no real movement from either Essential Research and Roy Morgan this week. With this they chalk up another two on the seat projection – one in Queensland, and one in Western Australia – and surpass their currently parliamentary tally of 90 seats. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

A beefy selection of preselection news this week:

• With its preselections to be determined next weekend, Labor’s struggling Western Australian operation is undergoing an imbroglio encompassing two of its three sitting members, and its yet-to-be-determined candidate for the state’s most marginal Liberal seat. Gary Gray, who has held the seat of Brand since 2007, has been refusing to sign a pledge that binds nominating candidates to the state platform and state conference as well as their national equivalents, and commits them to “obey the directions” of the state secretary in campaigning for their prospective office. As far as I can tell, fealty to the state platform is a not unusual feature of pledges required by Labor’s state branches, but it is generally phrased it in a way that places a higher premium on caucus solidarity. However, obedience of the state secretary appears to be peculiar to the Western Australian branch. The pledge is not new, but Gray objected to signing it on this occasion because the state platform opposes uranium mining and coal seam gas development, and struck out the offending sections on submitting his form. Consequently, the state party administration ruled the applications inadmissible. Complicating the matter is that Perth MP Alannah MacTiernan likewise made amendments to the pledge on her nomination form. Gray is taking his stand in the face of a united front of Left unions who want him to make way in Brand for Adam Woodage, described by Andrew Probyn of The West Australian as “a 28-year-old fly-in, fly out electrician on the Gorgon project”. However, the party’s national executive, including its most powerful representative of the Left, Anthony Albanese, is having none of it. As well as ordering the state branch to accept the nominations, invoking legal advice that the state pledge is inconsistent with national party rules, it has made clear it will intervene on Gray’s behalf if the matter is pursued any further.

• The Left unions in Western Australia have also irritated the party’s national heavyweights in pushing for Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang to take the nomination for the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-west. This would involve the defeat of Labor’s Right-backed candidate for September’s Canning by-election, Matt Keogh, and the wastage of a lot of effort the party put into promoting him to voters in Armadale, which stands to be transferred from Canning to the new seat. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports there are “expectations” within the party that the national executive will also intervene here if Keogh is not selected.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the New South Wales draft redistribution has resulted in two Labor heavyweights eyeing off neighbouring seats. One is Anthony Albanese, who is said to be looking at moving south from Grayndler to Barton. Barton was gained for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Nick Varvaris, but the new boundaries turn a 0.3% Liberal margin into a notional Labor margin of 7.5% by detaching Liberal-voting Sans Souci and adding southern Marrickville from Grayndler. Albanese’s exit would present a golden opportunity to the Greens, who now dominate the area at state level but have never looked like overcoming Albanese’s personal vote federally. Heath Aston of Fairfax reports Jim Casey, state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, is seeking Greens preselection for the seat. Bruce Knobloch, said to be aligned with Senator Lee Rhiannon and her hard Left tendency, reportedly had designs on the Grayndler preselection but will now seek to run in Sydney, which would pit him against Tanya Plibersek.

• At the other end of town, Chris Bowen is reportedly looking at moving on from his western Sydney seat of McMahon, where the loss of the Labor stronghold of Fairfield has cut his margin from 5.4% to 2.1%. Fairfield is set to be transferred to Fowler, which is held for Labor by the rather lower-profile figure of Chris Hayes. However, Hayes is reportedly reluctant to make way for Bowen.

• The Liberals in South Australia have preselected Nicolle Flint, a former columnist for The Advertiser, to succeed Andrew Southcott as their candidate for Boothby when he retires at the next election. Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser reports Flint has “worked as an adviser to state and federal Liberal leaders as well as the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry”. There were six nominees for the preselection, of whom Flint’s most fancied rival was Carolyn Habib, a youth worker and former Marion councillor who ran unsuccessfully in the marginal seat of Elder at last year’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,492 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Coalition”

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  1. Airlines@2420: the faction that put Joe Bullock into the Senate was the Left faction. It was through a deal to get some left nonentity into State parliament. I think they assumed that Labor would still win two seats in WA. Or perhaps they didn’t give much of a toss about Ms Pratt. Anyway, you should take it up with them.

  2. [I see it as another miss. Crabb’s an easy target. As he said, he has the perfect right not to watch. Maybe he needs to exercise that more often.]

    Don’t really understand this anti-Elderism, except that it seems to be de rigeur – since yesterday when William made some unwholesome and rather indiscreet comments – to declare Elder infra dig for all thinking PBers.

    GG is, of course, always the first to cast stones. But youse knew that.

  3. [“TBA – not even Bolt referred to Chegani as violent or unsavoury. That was you alone, and that marks you out as particularly cretinous.”]

    He was charged with assault and given over a 12 month sentence for it… and you don’t get over 12 months for much these days.

    I guess in leftie lala land that means he wouldn’t hurt a fly. I mean seriously… you guys are laughable sometimes.

  4. [“I’ll have to say goodnight. TBA is unbearable with his lies and cruel distortions.”]

    Well he was charged… and convicted… of assaulting another detainee… and given over a 12 month sentence…

    Thems be Facts. I maybe an asshole, but at least I’m a factual asshole. What we often have here is alternative realitys to suit the agenda.

  6. BB,

    You’ve chucked plenty of yonnies yourself, comrade.

    It’s just you have very little self awareness and way too much Sydney talk back radio in your veins to notice your hypocrisy.

  9. [“Why don’t you go and poison some puppies?”]

    Why would I hurt puppies, they aren’t conceited like humans are.

    This story is that Grey Area we often here about. One side… will put this story as some poor refugee at no fault of his own was sent to CI, and based on your level of conspiracy theory, was sent mad, escaped and killed.

    Of course that excludes any of the back story at all, ignoring the court case, ignoring the assault.

    I would like to hear and see the person he assaulted to get a 12+ month prison sentence… that’s one hell of a beating for a first offence.

  10. [I would be surprised if the costs of Kitchen Cabinet would even pay for the cost of one person in a regional newsrooms.]

    Yes, it’s always a shame when cost rather than quality or relevance and diversity determines funding priorities.

    The Sydney centrism of our media marches on.

  11. I am quite happy to call it now: Turnbull’s GST campaign will fail. It will be carnage for the Coalition.

    All the other Turnbuo=ll brainstorms have died in a ditch. I don’t see why this one shouldn’t.

    Naturally it’ll take the media a while to get round to recognizing that Malcolm is attempting to put lipstick on a pig, but they’re known for their slow thinking. That’s not a real problem.

  13. Hey everyone getting outraged about TBA’s comments re the unfortunate Mr Chegani. It’s important to note that the withdrawal of his visa and his return to CI happened a while back, quite conceivably under Gillard and/or Rudd. And that Dutton had recently offered him the opportunity to reapply for refugee status.

    And, while a bleeding heart sort of website called “Refugee Action” claims he was unfairly convicted, he did get a 12 month sentence, which is a pretty hefty punishment by contemporary judicial standards, so his assault must have been reasonably serious.

    It sounded like he had pretty significant mental health issues, so – like his fellow Iranian Monis – he might have been a difficult both for the authorities and his own community to deal with. His psychosis might have been the result of the torture he claimed to have been subjected to, or it might have been pre-existent and the “torture” to which he was subjected was actually hospitalisation which he interpreted in his own way. As the Monis case showed, Iranian Government is quite happy for Australia to accept their nutters as migrants.

    I suspect that the guy was difficult to handle due to his mental health issues. A tragic case indeed, but we mustn’t rush to point the finger at anyone and not should the likes of Andrew Bolt (a sickening article) or, for that matter, TBA,

  14. [… based on your level of conspiracy theory, was sent mad, escaped and killed.]

    I wasn’t even talking about the dead refugee.

    I just think you’re a prick, TBI.

  15. mb @ 2436

    Whatever the issue of what happened under which regime, the Troll’s comments (when I look at them) are so utterly bitter-spirited it is hard to believe they are anything other than an attempt to get a rise out of us.

    There is a mean ugliness in the Troll’s posts that would not be out of place in an SS auxiliary unit charged with mass murdering people. If those posts are not deliberate trolling efforts, then the author is an utter misanthrope, such is the ugly, vile view of humanity they disclose.

  17. meher:

    As often is the nature of these cases, there is a lot more to the individual circumstances than is presented in media reportage.

  20. [I am quite happy to call it now: Turnbull’s GST campaign will fail. It will be carnage for the Coalition.]

    Yep. Fully agree. The media boosters can sneer about scare campaigns as much as they like, but people can do basic sums and they will be scared about the additional costs. As for comparisons with Howard’s introduction of the GST, there were serious reductions in what were very high income tax marginal rates kicking in quite early (compared to today).

    This time round, we already got the marginal rate cuts courtesy of John Howard and the Dutch Auction of the 2007 election campaign. There is a structural problem in that income tax rates, especially at higher levels, are too low – not too high.

    As for everything being on the table – not everything is on the table. Lowering the level at which the highest income tax margin comes in is not on the table – nor is increasing income tax rates. Wealth taxes are not on the table; nor is the reintroduction of death duties.

    The fact is that the only tax changes on the table are changes that the Coalition government and its wealthy backers will live with. Everything else is not only not on the table, it is not even in the room. In fact, it is buried in a deep grave under the house and covered with a slab of concrete.

  21. meher baba@2451

    Airlines@2420: the faction that put Joe Bullock into the Senate was the Left faction. It was through a deal to get some left nonentity into State parliament. I think they assumed that Labor would still win two seats in WA. Or perhaps they didn’t give much of a toss about Ms Pratt. Anyway, you should take it up with them.

    All of which serves to illustrate the stupidity and futility of the ‘games’ factions play.

  22. TPOF@2465: Perhaps it’s just that I am further to the right than most posters on here (albeit to the left of TBA and the handful of rusted/in Livs who visit from time to time), but I thought TBA had a point.

    People who jump quickly to a state of outrage about incidents such as this are choosing to close their ears to any possibility of a backstory.

    And, in this case, there seems to be a significant backstory. It was totally reasonable to point this out. And, at the risk of attracting abuse, I have to say that (and I’m sur William will back me up on this point), TBA isn’t noticeably more disrespectful to other posters than many left-oriented people who post regularly on PB. I can’t recall him/hercalling anyone else an “arsehole”, which is something that regularly happens to him/her. His/her main crime seems to be posting views which are contrary to the prevailing wisdom on this blog.

  23. [Why can’t we all play nice, and learn to respect each others points of view.]

    Because some points of view are so morally vacant and reprehensible that to respect them would give them a standing that is not warranted in a civilised society.

  24. [“I am quite happy to call it now: Turnbull’s GST campaign will fail.”]

    What GST campaign? There is no GST campaign

  25. mb @ 2472

    I’m very well aware of the possibility of a back story. And having worked in the Department of Immigration I’m well aware of how the bad bits are whitewashed out of stories of people because their advocates (and the press who want to run with simplistic ‘human interest’ stories) don’t want to convey any complexity that might confuse the average punter.

    However, someone has died in what appear to be quite distressing circumstances. And that person has died after being placed in detention by our government. And when our government places someone in detention – especially when the detention is administrative detention and not serving a criminal sentence- the government owes them a very high standard of duty of care. Precisely because that person does not have the freedoms to make their own decisions and do their own things.

    So, yes. There is a back story. Just like there is a criminal back story to the large number of criminal deportees held on Christmas Island pending deportation. And there is a lot of variety in that back story, although I find it hard to accept that someone who has been an Australian for almost all their lives can be permanently sent to another country just because we can do it.

    For my part, I do not indulge in the abusive language directed at TBA (although I did once and WB struck it out, sort of at my invitation). I do call he/she/it a Troll, because a Troll would fit the types of posts he/she/it makes here. Calling someone a Troll is labelling their behaviour (trolling), rather than the person themselves. The only alternative is an ugly misanthropy that goes beyond the normal confines of left and right. And that does go to the person.

    And I’m not particularly happy with a huge amount of the meanness of spirit that pervades those on the left – and sometimes in the middle. I can be pretty caustic, but I try not to be. Those who try to be are pretty much despised by me – although their freedom to post here, like my freedom to post here, is up to William and not me.

  26. TPOF

    [However, someone has died in what appear to be quite distressing circumstances. And that person has died after being placed in detention by our government. And when our government places someone in detention – especially when the detention is administrative detention and not serving a criminal sentence- the government owes them a very high standard of duty of care.]

    Exactly

  28. It is pretty common for someone in the community awaiting determination of a visa application who gets in trouble to be granted bail but then taken into detention.

  31. [ What GST campaign? There is no GST campaign ]

    O dogs…the blind trollbot speaketh!

    TBA, they have only been running one since they come to Govt in 2013, and crafted much of their 2014 budget to push it along.

    Strange that such a perspicacious sage as yourself hasn’t picked up on something they have been…well..so deviously subtle about? 🙂

  33. GG@2448

    Thanks …have been here a fair while – not as long as some…but some great brawls over the years, since Mammoths walked the earth in fact.

    One could almost say that some of the dinosaurs are still slugging it out here.

    Sigh…What ever happened to Frank?

  35. I agree with Crabbe up to a point. It is good to see humans being human. The question is where is the point?

    Avoiding Godwin’s Law, would Crabbe come at, say, a jolly old meal with a tasty dessert with Assad?

    After all, is he not human, and would it not be useful to gain insights about Mr Assad’s human motivations for what he does.

  37. Bushfire … You should try to catch tonights episode of Rise of the Machines on sbs featuring fascinating stuff on how lens and lighting systems are used to help pilots land on aircraft carriers

  38. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/harming-the-poor-through-higher-gst-inconceivable-malcolm-turnbull-declares-20151109-gkufp4.html

    reminds me of a story former secretary of state schultz told after the first Bush (dubya’s dad) presidency. when the Iraq Contra arms deals came to light, Bush answered questions by saying ‘It is inconceivable that we would sell arms to the Iran government’. afterwards schultz said ‘but you know we did’. to which Bush replied ‘I know. but it is inconceivable that we did.’

    I reckon Mal’s use of the word is similar.

  40. @2460

    Another way of looking at it.

    By spending a little money on cheap shows they can spend more money on the shows that matter.

    Cut the cheap show and you would have to replace it with a more expensive show.

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