The Australian today brings us the second Newspoll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership, and it’s a soft result for the Coalition, who led 51-49 in the previous poll but are now level with Labor. Despite a strong result for Turnbull personally – his approval is up eight points to 50% with disapproval up one to 25%, as the initially uncommitted respondents jump off the fence – there is no meaningful change on voting intention, with the Coalition primary vote down one to 43%, Labor steady on 35% and the Greens up one to 12%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are likewise effectively unchanged at 28% approval and 53% disapproval, both representing a one-point drop on the previous fortnight. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 55-21 to 57-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1631, by automated phone and online polling. The poll also finds 62% saying the Liberals did the right thing in replacing Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull, with only 27% opposed. The breakdowns by party support are 56-36 among Coalition voters, 71-22 among Labor voters and 82-11 among Greens supporters. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1631.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in favour of Labor, as a particularly strong result for the Coalition two weeks ago washes out of the system. The Coalition’s lead is now at 51-49, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other findings show remarkably little opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has 49% approval and 16% disapproval, notwithstanding that 57% expect multi-national companies to benefit compared with only 32% for Australian workers and 31% for small businesses, and 62% saying they oppose allowing foreign companies to sue the Australian government for changes that cost them money, versus only 15% in support. A question of privatisation of various services finds across-the-board opposition, which is strongest for primary schools (25% approve, 58% disapprove) and weakest for public transport (37% approve, 47% disapprove). Regarding the threat of terrorism, an overwhelming 75% said the threat in Australia had increased in recent years compared with a mere 1% for decreased, and 20% for “stayed about the same”. Forty-five per cent said Australia’s participation in air strikes in Syria would make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 13% for more safe.
Good evening all,
A quick question without notice.
Can anyone either tell me what transpired at TURC today as there seems to be nothing at Fairfax or Murdoch sites or point me in the right direction to find out what went on?
Thanks in advance.
Cheers.
GG
I’m not in Burns any more so I haven’t been in the communities for a few years.
Labor voters relieved with the change to Malcolm. Lib voters mot so much.
Diogs,
Sorry, I thought you’d seen the card in action first hand.
Agree with the need to try different solutions in a controlled environment.
I have, close up, read my comment.
Nart Man
[However, it’s easily rorted – if you have an working family member/friend/partner you simply let them buy their shopping on the card and hand you back the cash equivalent. ]
Doesn’t the card have a name on it?
Michelle Gratten’s take on Turbull’s tax arrangements.
https://theconversation.com/turnbull-says-he-pays-his-full-tax-as-labor-pursues-his-investments-49148
Coles/Woolies etc don;t ask for additional proof – nor do other outlets. it just wouldn’t function if this was made an condition as the folks forced to use it don’t always have such[photo] ID.
Diogenes@1505
What if it did? Would the checkout person know the user? Also, the card owner could use it to buy groceries on behalf of someone else and then get the cash.
I see no way of stopping loopholes.
Diogenes,
I foresee the card being fine tuned with photo ID though, but even then, does a Coles Checkout person want to play enforcer – not to mention you can self-serve anyway. Policing the rorting would be impossible.
I have never understood why politicians propose stupid ‘solutions’ to ‘problems’, solutions which are never going to work. Every time they come up with something, I think ‘Well, it’s easy to get around that, just…’ and if I can think of a workaround with just a few moments of thought, most other people in Oz can think of it too.
The card to be used only for groceries and not for alcohol is easily sidestepped, as has been shown here.
The whole business of ISP businesses keeping tabs on the metadata of their customers is easily got around with a VPN. I checked with my VPN supplier, Witopia, and they say that they are not an ISP, and in any case are not an Australian company. They keep no permanent records, and are not subject to the proposed laws. My data tunnels through my ISP as encrypted data, is untraceable and unreadable by them, and resurfaces in any continent, and is routed from there. And I can watch youtube clips that are not available in Oz, since youtube thinks I am calling from Dallas, Texas.
I could go on, Abbott and Hockey come to mind, but you get the picture. Why do politicians think they can make water flow uphill? Are they really that stupid?
Beats me.
Yep, bemused is on it.
This card will though be forced on ALL Welfare recipients one day. Disability Pensioners Et al.
Nart Man,
I’d suspect the Government will audit the use of the card and if found to be rorted, then access through the machine processing the transaction will be denied.
Nart Man
What do the people who get them think of it?
Greensborough Growler@1512
How would such an audit be conducted?
GG hows the art?
You could argue that it’s okay to not try and stop rorting the card. It is increasing the “cost” of buying alcohol and gambling (in terms of overall effort) and nudging people in the right direction.
Nart Man,
I’d suspect the Government will audit the use of the card and if found to be rorted, then access through the machine processing the transaction will be denied.
You can’t stop it, our Coles now has only 3 staffed checkouts, the self serve is the way to get out of the store.
This’s The Alice, try forcing people to use diminishing staffed checkouts in a town as big as Heidelberg [my home town] and you see the chaos that would ensue.
ESJ,
On full display today.
A comment in the Guardian which is quite fascinating (if true)
[Number of issues here.
1. Cayman Island Corporate tax ( if any ) has nothing to do with Australia
2. Any personal income generated by his overseas investments would be taxed at the Australian rate. What If the overseas corporate structure chooses NOT to declare a dividend?
What if it chooses to retain profits? No dividends=no income=no Australian tax for Turnbull and Co.
I think you will find that these entities are simply ”cash boxes” which Turnbull can access via loan repayments and drawdowns/loans. No tax on these!]
lol GG, picking on poor old zoidy – hardly a challenge for a man of your standards?
Diogenes@1505
My credit card has my name on it. Are you seriously suggesting that the checkout person checks to see that my name is the same as the name on the card?
Signatures the same. We don’t have signatures here any more, though they do in Europe. When I used my credit card in Europe a few months ago for a couple of months, the system can’t handle Australian PINs, so you sign.
I always signed with my initials, not my proper signature, and it was never ever checked. There are many stories of people going for years in such a system, signing with names like ‘Marilyn Munroe’ or ‘Mickey Mouse’ and I could have done the same.
Diogenes@1516
Dio, that is naive.
Nart can you pay car registration and rent on the welfare card
Can the card be used at Bunnings or Aldi
Nartman,
Yes, but those stores need the customers to buy from them. So, a suspension of being able to process the cards would probably focus the attention of management.
Of course, you need competition and alternatives to ensure the users get their supplies.
Diogenes,
Originally there was a fuss by most folks, although a lot of the elder women have told me they love it as it’s more difficult for family members with drinking problems to force them to hand over cash.
By my reckoning, it was about 6 months into the forced use that even the most hardcore drunks worked out how to get around it – it’s very very hard in the culture to say NO to a request of an family member.
I don’t know any non indigenous folks on the card, but they’d have even less problems rorting it.
ESJ,
He was just part of a job lot today.
When you have too many turnips, you just got to eat turnips some times.
[Dio, that is naive.]
Why? If you increase the “cost” of something, you reduce it happening.
Kids can’t buy cigarettes but they can get an adult to do it for them. The “cost” as in effort makes it much less likely to happen. Obviously it doesn’t stop it though.
Diogenes
[ nudging people in the right direction.]
And punching on the nose the majority that don’t need nudging.
1509
If lack of id checking at self-serve checkouts becomes an issue with the cards, the government might decide to make the retailers make their self-serve checkouts require staff assistance for checking these cards. This already happens if you are buying a knife in Victoria, even a blunt piece of cutlery.
TURC
Thiess management on the stand. MICHAEL FRANCIS CONNELL
Did you have any
43discussions at all about a proposal pursuant to which
44a payment would be made by the joint venture to the AWU of
45$100,000 a year?
46 A. No.
If sugar and yeast are able to be purchased on the card, it is essentially encouraging home brewing.
Nart Man@1517
And a very fine town it is, too!
Lovely scenery, wonderful people.
same witness
that I have been asking you about, namely, that there was
23some arrangement or understanding pursuant to which the
24cost of an organiser or more organisers would be defrayed?
25 A. You raised that with me in the private hearing. It’s
26 a piece of fiction, as far as I was concerned.
@GG/1468
No it’s you that likes the ass club.
@GG/1503
Which means bad news for ALP.
People ARE being taken advantage of though in a minority of cases.
Folks with alcoholism don’t care or check their Basics Card balance [you can do a balance check now at major outlets which sorted the initial problem of people buying food only to be told they don’t have sufficient money on the card] and sober/ruthless family will hold the card, know the PIN and mete out grog then say “sorry bruz, cards empty till next time now”
It’s sad, and I’ve knowledge of this in one case, so there’d be more.
Diogenes@1527
In what way is the cost increased if a family member or friend or partner does it for you for free?
[However, it’s easily rorted – if you have an working family member/friend/partner you simply let them buy their shopping on the card and hand you back the cash equivalent.]
And if you give them a premium of, say, 10% for their trouble, that is just the cost of doing business, and getting the slab of beer you wanted. Easy peasy.
Chilling comment at Bolt’s blog.
Coup against Pope. Pope replaced by Tony Abbott.
[Can Pope stage a coup to replace the Pope?
How about replacing with Tony Abbott?
Peter of Sydney (Reply)
Wed 14 Oct 15 (02:09pm) ]
Banyule actually Don 😉
If lack of id checking at self-serve checkouts becomes an issue with the cards, the government might decide to make the retailers make their self-serve checkouts require staff assistance for checking these cards. This already happens if you are buying a knife in Victoria, even a blunt piece of cutlery.
Good in theory Tom, in practice, at a busy Coles on a Thursday/Friday night.. just won’t happen – the thought police cannot force Coles to put on more staff – great way to get more into the workforce though lol.
K17 #1519 under those circumstances I would expect that the non-arms length transaction would be deemed income and taxed or may even result in a Part IVA situation. No doubt in my mind any arrangement of that nature would be tax avoidance.
People have tried it through company structures and the loans are assessed by the ATO as “deemed dividends” and fully tradable.
More on the graph GG linked.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/westpac-consumer-sentiment-index-shows-coalition-voters-suddenly-gloomy-20151014-gk8z0s.html
[Westpac consumer sentiment index shows Coalition voters suddenly gloomy
October 14, 2015 – 9:02PM
Peter Martin
Economics Editor, The Age
It’s as if they have switched sides. Since the ascension of Malcolm Turnbull, it’s Coalition voters who have been feeling downbeat – the most downbeat since the election – and Labor voters who’ve been feeling better.
It’s usual for consumer confidence to change as soon as there’s change at the top. Usually what happens is that supporters of the party that lost become pessimistic and supporters of the party that won become optimistic and stay that way that way as long as their side is in power. Throughout the entire life of the Rudd and Gillard governments Labor voters were more optimistic that Coalition voters and stayed that way right through until the 2013 election when positions swapped.
Coalition voters have been clearly more optimistic than Labor voters in the Westpac Melbourne Institute survey ever since the election of Tony Abbott. Until now.
The October survey is the first since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. Confidence among Coalition voters dived from a clearly positive 105.9 points (on a scale where 100 means optimists and pessimists are evenly balanced) to 102.1, the lowest reading in the two-year history of the Coalition government.
It’s Labor voters who have had a surge of enthusiasm. Their confidence has surged from a deeply gloomy 86.7 to 93.3. It’s the second-highest reading in the life of the Coalition government.]
AussieA,
Thanks for the feedback re TURC.
Seems it did not follow the script. No surprise the MSM is quiet on the proceedings if it was all like that today.
Cheers.
Now they are saying property bloom has ended lol…
Coalition are economic genius, more like vandals.
boom*
Doyley
At the TURC Former Thiess John Holland human resources general manager Julian Rzesniowiecki,nhe man making the allegations about the $100,000 paid to the AWU, was questioned at length about his allegations.
He was taken through his diary notes of meetings, where the payments were never mentioned.
He was asked about other people he worked with on the project have denied his allegations.
He stuck to his guns. They are wrong, he said, he is right.
Sorry fully taxable.
poroti
[ nudging people in the right direction.
And punching on the nose the majority that don’t need nudging.]
Very true. And that’s what the trial has to decide; are the downsides more than the upsides.
My guess is that they aren’t but I’m happy for a trial to happen.
don
The “cost” of an object is much more than the price; the time and effort taken to buy it and consume it are also included.
You could just reduce the number of liquor stores or pokie machines and that would also increase the “cost”.
Tom the first and best
That was one of the problems in the NT. The cost to shops being able to run the system meant many small businesses could not afford to be part of it. A real problem in remote areas.
Nart Man@1539
Caught me there! It slipped my mind that there was a Heidelberg in Oz.
rossmcg,
Thanks for the info.
Interesting as it seems Thiess officials are all over the place.
He seems to be the only one claiming it actually happened. Not at all convincing.
Cheers.