Newspoll: 50-50

The second Newspoll since the leadership change delivers Malcolm Turnbull a strong result on personal approval, but an unexpectedly weak one on voting intention.

The Australian today brings us the second Newspoll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership, and it’s a soft result for the Coalition, who led 51-49 in the previous poll but are now level with Labor. Despite a strong result for Turnbull personally – his approval is up eight points to 50% with disapproval up one to 25%, as the initially uncommitted respondents jump off the fence – there is no meaningful change on voting intention, with the Coalition primary vote down one to 43%, Labor steady on 35% and the Greens up one to 12%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are likewise effectively unchanged at 28% approval and 53% disapproval, both representing a one-point drop on the previous fortnight. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 55-21 to 57-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1631, by automated phone and online polling. The poll also finds 62% saying the Liberals did the right thing in replacing Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull, with only 27% opposed. The breakdowns by party support are 56-36 among Coalition voters, 71-22 among Labor voters and 82-11 among Greens supporters. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1631.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in favour of Labor, as a particularly strong result for the Coalition two weeks ago washes out of the system. The Coalition’s lead is now at 51-49, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other findings show remarkably little opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has 49% approval and 16% disapproval, notwithstanding that 57% expect multi-national companies to benefit compared with only 32% for Australian workers and 31% for small businesses, and 62% saying they oppose allowing foreign companies to sue the Australian government for changes that cost them money, versus only 15% in support. A question of privatisation of various services finds across-the-board opposition, which is strongest for primary schools (25% approve, 58% disapprove) and weakest for public transport (37% approve, 47% disapprove). Regarding the threat of terrorism, an overwhelming 75% said the threat in Australia had increased in recent years compared with a mere 1% for decreased, and 20% for “stayed about the same”. Forty-five per cent said Australia’s participation in air strikes in Syria would make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 13% for more safe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  6. AFP getting it’s tax dollars for next budget:

    abc730 ‏@abc730 3m3 minutes ago

    “The problem (with terrorism) is getting worse for Australia not better,” says @AFPCommissioner. #abc730

  7. [abc730 ‏@abc730 3m3 minutes ago

    “The problem (with terrorism) is getting worse for Australia not better,” says @AFPCommissioner. #abc730
    ]
    Perhaps he should resign then and let someone competent take over.

  13. zoidy,

    Yes, I know how much you like to watch. It’s all you’ve got.

    You’re not an action man are you? Whining and whingeing as a substitute for doing.

    What a dreary poster you are.

  16. zoidy,

    With you, truth is always rare.

    In fact, you wouldn’t recognise the truth if Nicky, the jackass bit you on the ass.

  24. Jolyon Wagg @ 1089, and Kevin Bonham subsequently, re the “Cube Rule”.

    This seems to have been first put forward by Major P A MacMahon, though some work much earlier by I J Bienayme and Francis Ysidro Edgeworth pointed in a similar direction. The main modern reference is M G Kendall and Alan Stuart, “The Law of the Cubic Proportion in Election Results”, British Journal of Sociology, vol. 1, 1950, pp. 183-96. A more recent detailed study of the Cube Law can be found in G Gudgin and P J Taylor, “Seats, Votes, and the Spatial Organisation of Elections”, Pion, London, 1979, chapter 3 of which is entitled “Explaining the Cube Law”.

  25. adrian

    [
    If there’s a worse show on TV than How Not To Behave, I’ve yet to see it.]
    You’ll have to wait until they bring out the TV series “Poll Bludger the Rudd Gillard War ” 🙂

  31. I think Turnbull’s cavalier approach to his tax obligations is beyond immoral, even if it’s perfectly legal, but this line of attack for Labor is not smart.

    Painting Turnbull as a rich guy is not going to cut much ice. Australians want competence, business savvy, good management, economic brains – all the more so after this period of chaos and instability stretching from Rudd to the demise of Abbott.

    Broadly in a very different context, this is one reason Trump is doing so well in the United States. Rich equals savvy equals good management equals lack of government waste and so forth.

    Labor cannot afford to be dragged the debate down into what the public will perceive as the gutter, especially when the person is question is so vastly popular across the political spectrum.

  32. Jolyon Wagg @ 1478: My pleasure. I saw that Kevin Bonham earlier characterised the Cube Law as an empirical one, not backed by mathematical theory. That’s true as far as its origins go, but various efforts have been made by mathematicians to produce models which would generate a cubic seats-votes relationship. For example see Henri Theil, “The Cube Law Revisited”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 65, No. 331 (Sep., 1970), pp. 1213-1219.

    I used to try to keep up to date with this literature, but have been a bit slack recently. There are usually some new ideas put forward every few years.

  33. ALIAS – I was waiting for your to arrive. I think you’re right. Prince Mal’s presentational skills mean it doesn’t matter how much money he thieves from the public purse. No-one will care. Indeed, the plebs will feel flattered that the debonair prince of con-men has deigned to rob them.

  34. Nonsense.

    To expose a tax minimiser who wants to rip off penalty from Joe Struggling Public is never going to harm the whistle blower.

  35. [Broadly in a very different context, this is one reason Trump is doing so well in the United States. Rich equals savvy equals good management equals lack of government waste and so forth.]

    Our culture is shifting and complex but we cut down tall poppies more than we worship them. Howard is the definitive short poppy. Turnbull and Rudd have a lot in common. If labor doesn’t explicitly stand for fairness in this election Australia should elect Turnbull

  37. Labor should be careful how it handles the Turnbull tax issue. Simply because Labor’s not meant to win against him.
    They’ll be portrayed as going for gutter politics when the time for that sort of thing has (conveniently) passed.

  38. The welfare card trial gets up

    [The Senate has cleared the way for the Turnbull government to proceed with the trial of its cashless welfare card designed to restrict access to alcohol and gambling.]

  39. alias

    Where it will bite is when Turnbull + Scrott start saying us lot have to pay more and cuts to services. Services paid for by tax payers.

    Trump is doing well by being an anti politician. He will crash and burn.

  44. AussieAchmed

    [
    The market will flooded with welfare cards selling for between 25c to 50c on the dollar]
    In the NT a barter system developed to get around it . Buy x on the card and swap for y grog.

  48. The market will flooded with welfare cards selling for between 25c to 50c on the dollar

    I don’t see that here in The Alice where the cards been in use for 2 years or so now.
    However, it’s easily rorted – if you have an working family member/friend/partner you simply let them buy their shopping on the card and hand you back the cash equivalent.

    This happens here now, I know of 3 people doing said with working friends of mine.

    Sadly though, the local Sunday markets where, fresh, home grown veggies are sold as well as baked goods are out of the equation.

  50. Diogs,

    Sorry, I thought you’d seen the card in action first hand.

    Agree with the need to try different solutions in a controlled environment.

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