Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.
The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.
An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).
Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.
The only argument for an increased GST that I’ve seen that carries any weight is that it falls on multinational corporates who are engaging in profit-shifting.
Other than that it is anti-consumption and moreover regressive.
Don’t forget one of the stimulus measures employed in many European countries post-GFC was to cut sale/value-added/goods and services taxes.
If you want to raise more tax or cut expenditures, look to make those changes targeted.
For example, if you lose your job and go on the dole after working hard and almost saving a deposit for a house (of say $100k), then you cannot claim the dole until you spend most of it. However, if you just bought the house before you are laid off, or you’ve owned it for a while, you can claim the dole, even though you now also have capital appreciation working for you.
Many have identified similar situations that commonly arise regarding pensions for retirees.
Is that fair? Principle place of residence exemptions crop up all over our tax laws, but anyone who owns (or has substantially paid off the mortgage for) their home is wealthy by pretty much any absolute measure.
Wealth is where taxes should be targeted.
confessions at 1135
[Haven’t seen 730, but it sounds as if Morrison had a difficult interview.]
Sales could hardly get a word in edgewise. ScoMo did it all to himself. High projectile verbal diarrhoea.
Steve777
[
I can’t reveal the deficit – it’s an operational matter.]
Or just declare all the minus signs an “operational matter” and claim total triumph over the “debt and deficit disaster”.
Greensborough Growler @1128
I have another course of frogshit for your delectation…
I suspect our situations are similar (my business has a small number of large sales, and no GST exempt sales etc), but we are not typical (or at least not the mean case)
MYOB recently did a survey (obviously they are an interested party), but they found SMEs spend an average of two weeks per year in GST compliance, with 75% of the work undertaken by owners / directors (so consider the opportunity cost etc). Also it seems compliance in New Zealand is about half the cost of compliance in Australia
http://myob.com.au/myob/news-1258090872838?articleId=1424555402840
Player One@1126
How do you find the administrative costs?
In my experience they are trivial if you are at all organised.
Let me try that again…
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141124-1t3j0.html?selectedImage=0
Final scheduled spam run for:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/poll-roundup-turnbull-shift-puts.html
Poll Roundup: Turnbull Shift Puts Coalition Back In Front
2PP 51.3 to Coalition (+4.9)
Also in the sidebar I have a Not-A-Poll asking readers which polls they think are most reliable.
TPOF:
Rambling away like that isn’t necessary a good thing I guess.
Cer white
[i am not really into economics]
Earlier today you were giving us a lecture on how important the abolition of Sunday penalty rates was to the economy and the competitiveness of small business
Bit of consistency please.
Apropos of not much, I see the LNP has invested in a more eloquent troll.
I guess that’s a reflection on the leader.
With GST the compliance cost is not an issue; a red herring.
When a considerable portion of your costs is labor you really notice it; you GST bill is large even before you make a profit.
The solution is to import; you pay 10% import duty (which is fair enough) but labour costs are a lot lower on imported item.
Hasn’t anyone noticed economies with GST or a value added tax shed manufacturing.
frednk@1147
That is just bizarre.
You charge GST at 10% on your sales so you collect it from the customer.
You remit to the ATO the GST you have collected minus any credits for GST you paid on inputs.
Couldn’t be simpler.
Mark kenny reflects on Peta Credlin
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/not-governing-fighting-peta-credlins-role-in-tony-abbotts-collapse-20150923-gjt2ve.html
@Ross: Talking about competitiveness in business and how penalty rates apply CAN be, but isn’t necessarily, related to the formal field of Economics.
[Hasn’t anyone noticed economies with GST or a value added tax shed manufacturing.]
Can’t say I had; will look it up. Very interesting observation.
confessions @ 1158
‘rambling away’ are not the words I’d use. Wait till you see it.
[@Ross: Talking about competitiveness in business and how penalty rates apply CAN be, but isn’t necessarily, related to the formal field of Economics.]
Tell that to Jean Tirole.
TPOF@1166
Sales was laughing at him at one stage.
bemused
Yes I can see that point of view too; unfortuantly the 10% is a cost to the consumer they don’t care about how the price of the item came to be. Those putting the item together do.
Libertarian Unionist @1151
I think you are probably right about the external effect.
But I think the main (currently theoretical) argument in favour of GST is that (with ubiquitous computerization) the rate could be adjusted overnight (perhaps by the RBA or some similar body) thereby achieving an adjustment of the rate at which the government extracts (and destroy) private reserves with more or less immediate effect. Remember that in the Australian economy taxes are a tool for implementing policy rather than a financing mechanism, and daily (or weekly) GST adjustment would provide a (fiscal) policy tool with far smaller latency than almost anything (as quick or quicker than “going off the Gold standard” when that was in vogue).
@Libertarian: For all practical purposes, people with basic business knowledge don’t regard themselves as an expert in Economics. There is some crossover, sure, but the gotcha arguments put forward by those who don’t really have anything meaningful to say is incredibly stupid and brings down the level of meaningful debate.
Business profit is measured through the profit and loss account and providing the business is properly accounting for GST then it is not reflected in the P&L. That is GST has no effect on profit.
GST added to revenue is collected from customers. GST paid in expenses is treated as an input credit and deducted from the GST collected from customers and the net difference remitted to the ATO.
If a business pays more GST to supliers than it collects from customers the difference is paid by the ATO back to the business.
The only effect on business is cash flow timing depending on how quick customers pay as compared to how quick the business pays suppliers.
It’s really simple 🙂
Cer White
Nice try.
I think it was Briefly who gave us an explanation of why Australian small business was not competitive and how it had nothing to do with penalty rates.
He knows what he is talking about.
An increase in the GST rate will have little or no impact on a business other than the cash flow timing impact.
frednk@1169
Yes, the consumer pays it.
So where is your problem?
E. G. Theodore,
I hadn’t heard of that justification of the GST, and TBH I’m not convinced on it, but feel free to try to convince me.
My first thought is that once you start changing the rate of GST around too often you’ll run into a time-consistency problem and induce all sorts of weird tax-avoiding behaviour. For example, I think coupons and IOUs would flourish while people waited for the GST rate to come back down.
@Ross: Nice try what? I was talking about a basic business principle that I have discussed with small business owners on the ground, I don’t believe I, or others, need to have a Masters in Economics to discuss whether it affects Small Businesses need to compete.
I also don’t believe I need to be 100% correct to actually have an opinion on the matter. A lot of people talk about how Liberal supporters shut down debate, but I think you’re providing a pretty decent demonstration that it’s not just the Liberal base who engages in such behaviour.
[
davidwh
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 9:08 pm | Permalink
Business profit is measured through the profit and loss account and providing the business is properly accounting for GST then it is not reflected in the P&L. That is GST has no effect on profit.
GST added to revenue is collected from customers. GST paid in expenses is treated as an input credit and deducted from the GST collected from customers and the net difference remitted to the ATO.
]
And how pray tell does the net difference come about; what is the net difference covering?
victoria:
This from Kenny:
[Abbott was never going to let Credlin down, just as he would stand by Joe Hockey.
Knowing this made it all the more important for her to act. If she had not recognised this harsh truth by the end of last year, then she was no adviser at all. In any case, the February leadership meltdown sans-challenger, made what was implicit, undeniably explicit.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/not-governing-fighting-peta-credlins-role-in-tony-abbotts-collapse-20150923-gjt2ve.html#ixzz3mYiwrhtw
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
In short, Abbott the loyal-to-the-end good guy, Credlin the dead weight excess baggage problem child.
Why would Credlin leave of her own volition when Abbott couldn’t exercise his authority and sack her? As usual it’s the excuse-making for Abbott IMO.
ScoMo with Leigh Sales tonight
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4318562.htm
Libertarian Unionist
A bartering economy is the solution to a high GST rate if your aim is to avoid tax.
Am I right in thinking that Morrison’s statement that we have a spending problem and not a revenue problem are exactly the same words used by Hockey both in Opposition and in the early days of Government? The more things change the more they stay the same
[@Libertarian: For all practical purposes, people with basic business knowledge don’t regard themselves as an expert in Economics. There is some crossover, sure, but the gotcha arguments put forward by those who don’t really have anything meaningful to say is incredibly stupid and brings down the level of meaningful debate.]
From what I’ve seen, the complaints about penalty rates are coming from players in domestic industries that do not face international competition – mainly retail and hospitality.
You cannot talk about competition in these industries and then say the penalty rates are the problem, when they apply system-wide. How much manufacturing for export is done on Sundays?
The main problem facing the economy is a lack of demand, which equates to a lack of income, and for which abolishing penalty rates will do nothing to correct.
[Stephen Spencer
Stephen Spencer – @sspencer_63
That ScoMo interview was as bad as Abbott’s last one on #abc730 Embarrassing.
2:55 AM – 23 Sep 2015
25 RETWEETS17 FAVORITES]
A wheel fell off govt tonite ..Morrison is incompotent at economics and public speaking ..he rattled off jargon he just learned like average undergrad. Yuk.
The net difference is the difference between what you collect and what you pay. Simple example.
You sell $100 worth of widgets and add on $10 GST.
You pay a supplier $88 for widget parts which includes $8 GST.
Your P&L shows sales of $100 and costs of $80 with a profit of $20.
Your Balance Sheet GST clearing account has $10 credit from the sales nvpice and $8 debit from the supplier invoice. The $2 balance is paid to the ATO and the clearing account is cleared to zero.
It really is that simple.
The first step to balancing the budget is to reintroduce the emission trading scheme it increases revenue, direct action increases the budget spend resulting in the need for additional revenue.
As somone said; if you want to increase revenue tax somthing that you don’t want.
Is Morrison being set up to fail? Has Turnbull given him a poisoned chalice?
[
davidwh
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 9:21 pm | Permalink
The net difference is the difference between what you collect and what you pay. Simple example.
You sell $100 worth of widgets and add on $10 GST.
You pay a supplier $88 for widget parts which includes $8 GST.
Your P&L shows sales of $100 and costs of $80 with a profit of $20.
Your Balance Sheet GST clearing account has $10 credit from the sales nvpice and $8 debit from the supplier invoice. The $2 balance is paid to the ATO and the clearing account is cleared to zero.
It really is that simple.
]
Great little business there; no labour costs to generate the sale. I’ve never been so lucky.
Looks like instead of action-man, we have disloyalty and disunity:
ABC Current Affairs @amworldtodaypm 1m1 minute ago
Lib MP @SharmanStone hits back at #Credlin & says during #Abbott govt ‘Women felt alienated’ http://ab.co/1YBMp0f
Actually you should have two clearing accounts but the effect is the same.
I am also (proudly) not an economist. The arguments for a GST are, relative to other taxes:
It is hard to avoid
It doesn’t distort behavior
It is efficient to collect
However I never really believed the argument that a budding entrepreneur is discouraged from growing their business because of high marginal rates.
No one likes having to pay extra tax after the event because you earned more than expected but it doesn’t mean the nexf year you change your behavior.
There may be a case for increasing the GST but only after many other measures (capital gains, super concessions, etc) have been implemented.
Fess
Shorten was asked about Credlin today and his response was excellent. Wtte That the new PM and his cabinet, many of whom were part of the previous cabinet, carry responsbility for every decision made and to put it on Credlin is a copout
While discussing the Tax issue, we should be focusing on more on profit shifting before we do anything with the GST.
The 7-Eleven is the latest prime example.
frednk@1189
It does not matter if your costs are labour or anything else.
victoria:
That is a good response.
[
John Reidy
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 9:25 pm | Permalink
I am also (proudly) not an economist. The arguments for a GST are, relative to other taxes:
It is hard to avoid
It doesn’t distort behavior
It is efficient to collect
]
John I am trying to point out it does distort behaviour; you aim for David’s nice little business; no labour costs.
frednk@1197
Rubbish.
Fred if you want to complicate it then if there was $40 of the costs for labor on which GST doesn’t apply and $44 from suppliers which includes $4 of GST then the P&L is still the same $100 revenue $80 expenses and $20 profit.
The GST clearing account changes because you still collect $10 from your customers but only pay $4 to your suppliers and therefore have to pay $6 to the ATO:
But hour profit and cash flow is the same.
Vic
[Shorten was asked about Credlin today and his response was excellent. Wtte That the new PM and his cabinet, many of whom were part of the previous cabinet, carry responsbility for every decision made and to put it on Credlin is a copout]
Is he trying to recruit her?