A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention for the News Corp tabloids – the first such poll since May – confirms the impress of ReachTEL in recording a relatively modest bounce to the Coalition, who nonetheless peak their noses in front by 51-49 on two-party preferred. That makes this the first poll since a Newspoll in early April 2014 to have the Coalition in front. The primary vote numbers are Coalition 44%, Labor 36%, Greens 11% and Palmer United 2%.
Again, this tepid result on voting intention is defied by an overwhelming lead for Malcolm Turnbull over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, in this case of 51-20. The poll also puts Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison head-to-head for preferred Treasurer, with Morrison prevailing by 41% to 16%, leaving 43% uncommitted. There is further salt for Hockey’s wounds in a finding that 48% believed Tony Abbott should have sacked him as Treasurer, with only 23% disagreeing.
The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1224. As best as I’m aware, it will have encompassed live interview polling together with online and automated phone polling, and included a small sub-sample of mobile phones. The Newspoll series conducted by Galaxy for The Australian involves only online polling and automated phone polling to landlines.
zoomster and victoria
Turnbull has been very careful in his language regarding the marriage equality plebiscite. He has made it clear that he is supporting the determined government position of a vote some time after the next election because it is the government position.
But, in doing so, he has played up the Cabinet decision position. That means that Cabinet is perfectly free to revisit the decision made under Abbott but that is the government policy until it does.
Turnbull won’t revisit the free vote question, because that was decided by the party rooms and, in any case, the numbers show that it would be too close a thing on the floor of Parliament to make the risk worthwhile for him.
However, I have no doubt that he will revisit it in HIS new cabinet, where it will be decided to hold a plebiscite at the next election. I expect this outcome because anything else would be both political and financial madness, which could be easily exploited by Labor.
The public want this off the agenda and everyone, except the deeply committed opponents of same sex marriage, recognises it is inevitable, even if they don’t like it themselves. A plebiscite before the election could not be justified on the grounds of cost, but one at the election fits with the silly rhetoric about this being too important to be left to the politicians, while being the cheapest option of a public opinion poll. It will also lock in both parties in the new parliament regardless of the election outcome.
If the LNP supports lifting the GST to 15 percent, the ALP should say, let’s have a plebiscite on it!
Ray Hadley wants Morrison to swear his statements on a Bible, which is supposed to be in the Canberra studio for him but isn’t there. Morrison is offended that Hadley would bring his religion into a political discussion.
Just read Waleed Aly’s article.
Interestingly the LNP could go the way of the Republicans in the USA. It will be worth watching all the preselection battles for numerous seats before the next election but also for the one after to see which way the selection war trends – more to the right neocon types or back towards Malcolm’s ‘true liberals’.
TPOF
As i reported earlier, Senator Fierranti Wells made a point of stating that she was very pleased that Turnbull is sticking to Abbott’s policy to hold plebiscite “after” the next election
Lizzie
In the RN interview, Coorey said more than that News were going for Fairfax.
IMHO the most significant thing he said was that whilst there were many News journos who were preferenced by Abbott as leak recipients ( this was just the way the cookie crumbles “they get the leaks and good on em”), there were other News journos who were out and out defenders of Abbott to the extent they were in effect arms of the government.
He was clearly referring to Devine, Albrechtsen, Bolt, Akerman, etc etc. This group Coorey obviously has no respect for.
[So while I am very happy Abbott is gone I am under no illusions the problems within the Libs have been solved.]
And the other mob too. They made a start I guess.
The two leaders could work cooperatively to introduce real reforms in a whole range of issue including election funding…and agree to not try to make political gain out of each others internal party reforms.
Oh, there my pig arriving to fly me to a work site. Later peeps.
TPOF
Do you know what the position is, when a ‘foreigner’ marries an Australian resident (but not a citizen AFAIK).
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/17/peter-dutton-to-personally-consider-case-of-woman-facing-deportation-to-iran
ratsak@97
Good post. I think people generally underestimate Shorten’s capabilities, and they certainly over-estimate Malcontent’s.
It took guts, brains and nous to bring down Abbott, and I agree that the best (and possibly only) way to do it was by not attacking him directly, but just letting him flail wildly until his unhingement became too much even for to his own supporters to ignore.
Yes, Mal was a Rhodes scholar … but we have incontrovertible evidence that brains was never a requirement for these scholarships.
@ABCNews24: Stevens: The overall number of job vacancies in the #economy has been increasing #auspol http://t.co/RuxFuR86M6
“@latikambourke: Do Abbott’s peeps bleating about disloyalty think Fmr PM acted the same by throwing Joe & Julie under a bus in offering ScoMo their jobs.”
Martin B @ 61
[ATM the public has a strong opinion about MT (largely, but not wholly positive). This can – and I think will – change, but it won’t be on the basis of statements made in QT. It will be in tesponse to events and new legislation under MT.]
I agree. However, Shorten and Labor’s strategy in QT does have a point. And that is to nail Turnbull as hard as possible to the policies that he will want to turn around, making that effort even more difficult and dangerous for him. There is no free ride in politics, unless you are Tony Abbott. And even that comes to a crashing end when a monkey is in the driver’s seat.
“@latikambourke: Scott Morrison on Treasury role says the only person who offered me that job ‘before the ballot’ was Tony Abbott. @smh @theage”
[Also, for all the relief of most of Australia that Abbott has gone, the guarantee that Shorten will remain in charge to the following election if elected PM will win votes at the next election. Shorten is already playing this for all it’s worth.]
If Labor don’t play ads highlighting their changed rules that secure an ALP PM but that the Liberal Right and Nats hate Turnbull and so who will you end up with as PM Morrison? Bishop? Hockey? Dutton? then they really won’t deserve to win. Unity and stability is a trump in Labor’s hand now. I expect them to play it.
boolean
[It will be worth watching all the preselection battles for numerous seats before the next election]
damn tootin’. I feel like joining the Liberal party just to watch, but I have enough birdies in that nest.
victoria @ 68
[Goodness me I didnt realise that qanda on Monday has only Bill Shorten as guest!]
I’d love to know when Shorten agreed to do that.
The sigh of relief as Abbott was deposed was like a gale in Newtown….
I think as everybody gets over that initial impression and sees that Turnbull will not change anything substantial, that the polls will return to the ALP.
Turnbull’s success depends on how he can corral the RWNJ (right wing nut jobs) such as Hadley, Jones and Bolt and their fellow travellers in parliament. If they stay quiet, he has a chance. If not he will be white anted by the Righties for the next year..
Abbott’s already said he won’t be destructive…when has he ever told the truth?
There could possibly be a new Right wing party on the horizon. I hope so, then they can be reduced to the nonentity they deserve to be…
psyclaw
Yes, thanks for the added details. I was half asleep and hoped someone else had heard the ‘arm of the government’ thing. We also have hints today that the bureaucracy has become more politicised under Abbott (no surprise).
Perhaps PB could stop tarring all journos with the same brush now 🙂
On the equal marriage plebiscite I think Turnbull is working round to having it at the same time as the election.
It gets it done and so gains him public support even from those that oppose equal marriage.
It means that support marriage equality vote Labor cannot be used.
With the official support of Labor for marriage equality having the LNP have a “conscience” position on ME takes a lot the hysteria against taken out of the debate. Note that is not all the hysteria.
That has to be win win for him. Staying with the current policy is lose lose for him and he knows it.
Those after the election comments are more for the right wing ears than anyone else. This means if he is forced to do it after the election he will follow the Shorten prescription and promise within 100 days to neutralise ME as a damaging election issue.
[It’s not my job, or the Opposition’s job, to wait patiently while the Libs get this done on their own time, if they feel like it.]
I’m just trying to understand the political dynamic at the moment. I understand not everyone comes here for analysis.
[What’s the point of Turnbull if things haven’t changed?]
[It’s not that no one here understands the position he faces, just that out amongst the wider electorate they won’t understand nor care]
My point here is that in the wider electorate, the judgement about whether things have changed under MT will be based on where he is at in a few months not what he said in QT in week 1, and that because he is emphasising coninuity of policy on SSM and CC now does not mean that he won’t have tried to shift policy in these areas over that time.
[Abbott’s already said he won’t be destructive…when has he ever told the truth?]
Abbott is not a liar. He is a bullshitter.
As Harry Frankfurt said, a liar is someone who knows what is the truth and what he is saying isnt true. A bullshitter doesnt care if what he says is true or false and doesnt care what the truth is.
qanda will almost certainly follow up Bill with Malcolm a week or two later. Unlike Abbott, Turnbull will accept.
[Labor’s objective of taking the paint off the popular Turnbull is uncannily similar.
More than merely wedging him between his conservative party and his liberal positions on climate, marriage equality, the republic and women, its attack seeks to show Turnbull as hyper-ambitious and ready to abandon such values in his quest for the prime ministership.
By making Turnbull lock in positions, preferably in the negative, Labor’s aim is to either split him from his party base or, more likely, split him from his own reputation in middle Australia, creating a whole new tide of disappointment.
And with the help of Turnbull’s internal enemies on the right, it might even work.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-left-and-the-right-have-a-common-plan-get-malcolm-turnbull-20150917-gjouke.html#ixzz3m2iVL1hB
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook]
Oh God. I’m going to have to rethink my opinion on if Labor’s strategy is any good now that Kenny has come out and noted it exists and even suggested it might work. Why couldn’t he just say Turnbull for the win and leave me feeling confident?
booleanbach
Yes you are correct and such an appearance on QandA from Turnbull could well be the official end of any honeymoon period as the public see the reality of the policy front.
MartinB
[I think the ALP needs to be very careful here. I suspect the ‘no plebiscites’ and ‘voting is a waste of money’ lines might prove considerably less appealing than some think.]
It only has to appeal to the ones who want ME and want it ASAP. A plebescite provides them with no certainty, compared to Labor’s pledge to push forward with a definite vote.
In any election contest, locking in even 1% of the vote makes all the difference.
“Vote Labor and guarantee a vote in Parliament” versus “Vote Liberal and we’ll hold a plebescite later and perhaps if it goes in your favour we might then vote on the legislation”.
I can’t really argue with any of today’s posts. We really have to wait until the end of the honeymoon to see how things stand. I doubt there will be an early election, because Turnbull will want to lever off his honeymoon, nothing like good polls to tame the nut jobs.
I suspect a combination of his superciliousness ways, the right wing nut jobs, and axes to grind will eventually cause problems for Turnbull, but I have no idea on the timing.
He will be attacking the ALP in ways that don’t upset the nut jobs, and the ALP will be trying to dent the soft spot progressives have for him.
Abbott will now be remembered as Q and A’s “invisible PM”.
“@RNBreakfast: . @AdamBandt “if Malcolm Turnbull is right and innovation is our future.. we need to be boosting funding to ..science””
guytaur
And even having a Science Minister.
Hey BK
How are you? Surgery done?
guytaur
Yesterday I had a small carcinoma removed from my forehead – that went OK. It’s in two weeks’ time that I go in for the shoulder operation. That’s when the fun will start!
Now Hadley has called a 2GB employee at the Canberra studio to describe its contents to prove there was a Bible there on a bookshelf next to some papers that Morrison had seen and described while looking for the Bible that he claimed wasn’t there.
[Labor’s aim is to either split him from his party base or, more likely, split him from his own reputation in middle Australia, creating a whole new tide of disappointment.
And with the help of Turnbull’s internal enemies on the right, it might even work. – Kenny ]
I would have thought this is obvious, which is why I don’t understand people saying SSM is a waste of time for the ALP. It’s not the tally of votes the ALP are after, it’s Turnbull’s reputation as a moderate.
Could it be that the new leadership rules actually make it harder for a (let’s say hypothetical) Labor party that consisted of an effective shadow cabinet and a competent but less than rock-star popular leader to be elected?
That is, the election is now a critical timing point for any possible leadership change, and voters will know that if they prefer for example a second string Labor front bencher as leader, their only hope of changing leaders is to ensure at the ballot box that Labor don’t win?
I have been in favour of the leadership reforms but if this is a possibility they could be seen as vote distorting. Un-westminsterly so to speak.
TPOF
There was no reason for Malcolm himself not to say any of this. (There are diplomatic ways of saying “I’m locked into this position for now but watch this space” – and indeed, Labor has done so on a number of issues). Instead, what he said was that there will be a plebescite after the next election.
As I understand it, that’s part of his guarantee to get the Nationals on board, so I don’t think that he’s likely to change it.
Moreover, the party vote was pretty emphatic (and quite recent!). Explaining why a change of leader changed the way you voted wouldn’t be very easy for your average MP.
Changing a policy position like this one can only work if the leader steps up to the plate and basically says (as Abbott did on occasion) “Bugger you lot, this is the way it’s going to be.” If it’s the right decision, it will show up in the polls very quickly, and then give that leader even more authority to make similar shifts.
Persuading the party room to do something the party room doesn’t want to do – with the added problem that the Nats are unlikely to move at all on this – is a lot harder than just telling them.
[Damo
Posted Friday, September 18, 2015 at 5:14 am | PERMALINK
Just introducing myself been a long time reader but new to Posting Also would like to give this Blog a bit of balance as a long term non Labour Voter.
Am buoyed by Malcolm’s Rise in the Leadership of the Liberal Party as Tony Abbott was headed for a certain One-Term Government.
I think once the new Cabinet, Ministry and Policies are introduced the only way is up
Also the talk of a quick election is Not likely to happen Gillard almost Lost the last time it happened and Newman lost for going early There must be a very good reason for going early]
Welcome aboard Damo. I hope you will be more in the mould of Davidwh than the likes Of TBA in the approach you take. The former has proven himself to be an effective and well respected contributor in presenting the liberal perspective here while the latter is seen by most as nothing more than a provocative obnoxious troll.
Now that Abbott has gone I expect there will be much more scope for a genuine debate on policy. Hopefully we will see you making a thoughtful non confrontational contribution to that.
Victoria @ 105
Yes. Connie heard correctly. But while the decision to not have a free vote was a party decision, the decision to go to a plebiscite was a cabinet decision – and cabinets can change policy at will.
Given Connie’s political future under Turnbull, her reaction to Turnbull getting his cabinet to bring forward the plebiscite to coincide with the election will be the least of his worries.
Jon Faine once again repeats his belief that Shorten and Labor have been woeful in managing Turnbull this week
“@mscott: Monday night is going to be another big night of politics. The leadership coup on #4Corners. Bill Shorten on #qanda @ABCTV”
That was quick of 4C. Usually it takes them longer to get this stuff to air.
================
Good luck on the shoulder surgery of course glad so far so good
[If the LNP supports lifting the GST to 15 percent, the ALP should say, let’s have a plebiscite on it!]
Bingo! Every controversial position Turnbull proposes Shorten should just say put it to a plebiscite.
He can say it will cost almost nothing to add these questions at the election. What do you have against democracy Mr Turnbull?
Zoomster
Have you heard the latest on Vic politics. Matthew Guy has referred. The ALP rort saga to Vic Police this morning
lizzie at 108
Makes no difference whether the spouse is a citizen or permanent resident. The real issue is the status of the non-citizen spouse. In this case, it appears the problem is that she has legal basis to be here, and without that legal basis, she cannot be granted a spouse visa onshore. Only the Immigration Minister has the legal power to override that restriction.
Good luck BK, soon you will be all fixed up for retirement 🙂
Meredith Bergman is outlining the Labor position on 24 now
It is interesting to see the perspectives on here both progressive and conservative.
In terms of the ALP leadership, change is unlikely because Shorten is actually doing well. He is not the kind of loudmouth that Abbott was in opposition where he was all bluster with no substance (which his PMship confirmed).
I think we need to stop using Abbott’s opposition performance as the yardstick. The media dubbed him the most successful opposition leader ever so it appears it is now the template in their eyes. BUT IT ISN’T!
Like Abbott’s extremist PMship, his oppositionship was extreme. In fiction, I’d say it was melodrama. It worked in opposition because it was pure theatre … but ultimately it was useless because it laid impotent ground for his own PMship.
Shorten is a smart man. A very smart man. Where he lacks charisma to many, he makes up for it in smarts.
Turnbull has a great deal of charisma to many, but it is quite hollow from where I sit. He is too slick, too smug and being a successful businessman does NOT make a great politician because a country is:
a) not a business … it is NOT a for profit enterprise and
b) a business is not geared for any kind of welfare/egalitarian contemplation.
ratsak at 113
I suspect that Labor have those ads being prepared now. Along the lines of ‘You may vote for Malcolm, but who will you get after the election?’. ‘Our rules mean that the person you vote for is the person who stands before you at the next election for your judgement’.
Or words to that effect.
jenauthor
The way I saw it was that Abbott came across as a snake oil salesman.
Though maybe the snake oil salesman could have had better morality
[And even having a Science Minister.]
Tony Abbott could get the Ministry of Silly Walks.
@BevanShields: Audio of that amazing Hadley v Morrison interview http://t.co/EnvkBcraTt #auspol #libspill
[Andrew Landeryou
12m12 minutes ago
Andrew Landeryou @landeryou
Scott Morrison accusing Tony Abbott of disloyalty is just a little bit rich in the circumstances #auspol ScoMo leadership pretensions gawn]
Welcome Damo. I agree with some of what you said and hope the rest is possible. I’ll be happy if Turnbull can move the Libs more towards the centre. It will be an almost impossible task with the current make-up of the elected MP’s.