Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

The second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is the first since April last year to have the Coalition in front – albeit just barely.

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention for the News Corp tabloids – the first such poll since May – confirms the impress of ReachTEL in recording a relatively modest bounce to the Coalition, who nonetheless peak their noses in front by 51-49 on two-party preferred. That makes this the first poll since a Newspoll in early April 2014 to have the Coalition in front. The primary vote numbers are Coalition 44%, Labor 36%, Greens 11% and Palmer United 2%.

Again, this tepid result on voting intention is defied by an overwhelming lead for Malcolm Turnbull over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, in this case of 51-20. The poll also puts Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison head-to-head for preferred Treasurer, with Morrison prevailing by 41% to 16%, leaving 43% uncommitted. There is further salt for Hockey’s wounds in a finding that 48% believed Tony Abbott should have sacked him as Treasurer, with only 23% disagreeing.

The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1224. As best as I’m aware, it will have encompassed live interview polling together with online and automated phone polling, and included a small sub-sample of mobile phones. The Newspoll series conducted by Galaxy for The Australian involves only online polling and automated phone polling to landlines.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,308 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 67
1 2 3 … 67

  1. Pyne Bishop Morrison Turnbull etc dont need to worry about any vengeful action from Abbott, According to all the scribes, Abbott isnt like that. Phew. That is a relief. 😀

  2. Notwithstanding the general irrelevance of trigger bills in a campaign, I doubt Turnbull will want a DD on Abbott legislation. He will believe in himself and believe that the longer he has the better he can do. I very much doubt he’ll go early.

  3. Lizie – was Coorey saying that News attacked those journalists publicly, or behind the scenes?

    How can they possibly make Pyne Minister for Defence. What a conflict of interest. Won’t that piss them off in Victoria and WA.

  4. According to Senator Fierranti Wells, she is happy that Turnbull will keep Abbott’s policy to have a plebiscite on SSM until after next election. I was under impression that Turnbull was considering having it at the election.

  5. The faceless men who stalked Abbott

    [Flying from Adelaide to Canberra early Monday morning aboard the VIP jet, Tony Abbott had no idea it would be his last day as prime minister.

    Neither was he aware he could have been gone already. Sources have confirmed to The Australian Financial Review that the plot to remove Abbott had been ready for several days. Indeed, it was intended to be sprung on Wednesday last week.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/ambush-the-faceless-men-who-stalked-abbott-and-made-turnbull-king-20150916-gjoj7h?stb=twt#ixzz3m2OUYhAH
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  6. victoria

    no, Turnbull has apparently gone for the worst option, and handed Labor the ‘save money, vote for us’ election slogan.

  8. Zoomster

    The plebiscite is unnecessary, but if you are going to do it, it makes sense to do it at the same time as election, surely it makes more sense and less costly all round. Turnbull is a f wit

  9. [As I said yesterday 50/50 is probably a fair place to start.]

    You would my dear friend, I would have thought after the same instability as labor, but with a much much worse Government and much much worse treasurer Labor should be starting 80:20 ahead … but you can’t always get what you want, and as Abbott so clearly demonstrates voters get the Government they deserve 🙂 They clearly deserved very very bad gubermint.

  10. [Turnbull is a f wit]

    Turnbull is the PM and like Abbott nothing else matters, nothing matters at all, the needle returns to the start of the song and we all go around like before; but we’ll all be poorly governed tonight and poorly led tomorrow ….

  11. In general, I agree with the long term prognosis that has been advanced. But I think the Bludgertariat has been a bit excitable over the first days of the Returnbull.

    The idea that MT would walk into his first QT, ditch half a dozen policies and burn off the Abbott cabinet is a wishful fantasy. Of course he is emphasising continuity of policy, for both internal and public consumption. His task is to start from this position and gradually shift the government over the next few months. This will be an enormous challenge for all the reasons discussed, and I doubt he will be more than partially successful at best. But the yardstick is where he is by the end of the year, not now – coming in and just announcing his final position would be a recipe for failure.

    It’s a tough line to walk, as we know from the Ruddslaying. There has to be an acknowledgment of problem – else why would the leader be ditched – but also a claim that the government is good – else why should they be supported?

    ATM the public has a strong opinion about MT (largely, but not wholly positive). This can – and I think will – change, but it won’t be on the basis of statements made in QT. It will be in tesponse to events and new legislation under MT.

    A number of people have commented on the longer-term nature of ALP’s strategy and the failure of the press to understand that. Exactly the same can be said about Turnbull’s long term strategy and comments here. (Again I very much doubt this strategy will be successful – but I observe that it is over the next few months that it will be measured, not the first few days.)

  12. Kevin 1-7

    It was public enough for PB to be aware of what they were doing. Coorey implied that, inter alia, News simply refuted any criticism of Abbott by publishing contra articles from their own pet journos, cheered every ‘decision’ made by Abbott, and attacked the credibility of Fairfax. There was a hint that reports sent up from the press gallery would be ‘adjusted’ in favour of the Coal. None of this would be a surprise to PB.

  14. Hadley may give ScoMo a footrub me thinks

    [Samantha Maiden
    1h1 hour ago
    Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden
    PUT ON YOUR HARDHATS, #popyourcollar & set your alarms. IT’S ON 9:20 am RAY HADLEY V Scott Morrison]

  17. Martin #61 agree. But I have to say it has been more interesting the last few days not having to agree with most PB’ers for a change.

  20. [ handed Labor the ‘save money, vote for us’ election slogan]

    I think the ALP needs to be very careful here. I suspect the ‘no plebiscites’ and ‘voting is a waste of money’ lines might prove considerably less appealing than some think.

  21. Morning all.

    A contest at last, poll-wise. But I do not see the public debate switching to policy somehow. It’ll all be about Turnbull’s popularity and how unpopular Shorten is.

  22. victoria

    Thanks for the AFR link, (unpaywalled). That gives the mechanics, Waleed gives the philosophy.

    Wyatt Roy definitely sees himself as the future of the Liberal Party.

  25. fess

    [about Turnbull’s popularity and how unpopular Shorten is]
    That will be the essence of Tony Jones attacks on Shorten in QandA on Monday night. Betcha!

  26. [The idea that MT would walk into his first QT, ditch half a dozen policies and burn off the Abbott cabinet is a wishful fantasy. Of course he is emphasising continuity of policy, for both internal and public consumption. His task is to start from this position and gradually shift the government over the next few months. This will be an enormous challenge for all the reasons discussed, and I doubt he will be more than partially successful at best. But the yardstick is where he is by the end of the year, not now – coming in and just announcing his final position would be a recipe for failure.]

    And? It’s not my job, or the Opposition’s job, to wait patiently while the Libs get this done on their own time, if they feel like it. What’s the point of Turnbull if things haven’t changed?

  27. Fess

    No idea, but fourcorners will be all about him on Monday

    [“The King is dead, long live the King” Senator Eric Abetz, Government Leader in the Senate

    As Federal Opposition leader, Tony Abbott led the charge against Labor, relentlessly exploiting the division and chaos which plagued the Rudd and Gillard governments. He successfully defined the ALP as a party of backroom plotters, who callously ditched a first term Prime Minister when the opinion polls became dire.]

  31. [Turnbull had been telling a number of his colleagues the week before that he believed he had the numbers. None of those colleagues had told Abbott.

    Turnbull had told Bishop the same thing, last Friday. She was in Sydney hosting talks with Korean foreign and defence ministers. He was in Melbourne, visiting Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in his electorate, a trip teed up some months earlier.

    The pair spoke on the phone and had what sources have described as an “abstract’’ conversation. Nothing was directly put about a challenge. Bishop simply didn’t believe Turnbull had the numbers. Regardless, she urged him not to do anything that could impact on tomorrow’s Canning by-election, then only eight days away.]

  36. Martin B,

    I think you misrepresent the feeling about Malcolm. It’s not that no one here understands the position he faces, just that out amongst the wider electorate they won’t understand nor care. No doubt Turnbull thinks he can navigate this problem. But there are massive risks for him and every small move towards the centre will be opposed by his right flank. The longer each move takes, and the smaller the move, them more likely it is that those who currently have high hopes for Turnbull will start to feel like they’ve been betrayed ‘again’.

    Everything is fluid. I’m certainly not saying Labor still has the election in the bag. Merely that anyone saying Turnbull has is getting way ahead of themselves at this stage.

  37. [During a debate on ABC radio with Labor candidate Matt Keogh yesterday, Mr Hastie — a former captain in the Special Air Service Regiment — repeated his suggestion troops in combat had been let down by Labor.

    “I have worked overseas under Labor governments and you would have heard in my State conference speech that I said overseas I didn’t feel that Labor had our backs,” Mr Hastie said.

    Mr Keogh pushed back, saying while he respected Mr Hastie’s military service, he was out of line to suggest Labor had not offered all the support it could to those fighting.

    “Andrew seems to have now a few times had a dig at Labor governments’ support for our armed forces,” he said.

    “I think it’s terrible that those sorts of things are being made a political football in this election.”]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/29561256/hastie-attacks-labor-over-digger-support/

  38. mimhof @ 76 “What the point of Turnbull if things haven’t changed?” I suggest simply that the purpose exists in the graph at the left hand top of this page. The further that blue line is above the red line the more an abnormal selection of the population, selected by an abnormal sub set of the population keep there long term jobs.

    Always follow the money

  39. Gary @ 50

    [To those suggesting Shorten should go get over it. He’s staying. The government will live or die by what they say and do, not by what Shorten says or does. It has been that way since Moses was a boy.]

    Bears repeating.

    Also, for all the relief of most of Australia that Abbott has gone, the guarantee that Shorten will remain in charge to the following election if elected PM will win votes at the next election. Shorten is already playing this for all it’s worth.

  40. victoria
    Posted Friday, September 18, 2015 at 8:00 am | PERMALINK
    I like the majority of Oz is relieved that Abbott was dumped. He truly was a wrecker and needed to be cut down. The fact that the Libs stuck with him from 2009 to 2015, says a lot about them too.

    —agreed this takes gloss of turnbull entirely – some here wrote him off ages ago – careerism first – he would have had more integrity and perhaps leverage by resigning ministry in protest some time ago – yes we are pleased abbott’s gone but party that put him in is still there

  41. [I think the ALP needs to be very careful here. I suspect the ‘no plebiscites’ and ‘voting is a waste of money’ lines might prove considerably less appealing than some think.]

    Agree with you here though. The attack should be to ask what else we might have plebiscites for. It’s a no brainer with public confidence in politicians so low that they’ll say if you turkeys are going to keep getting it wrong give us a say.

    So Labor only has to point out that there are many many other issues where people of good conscience disagree strongly (that’s the ‘justification’ for a plebiscite after all), so why can’t we have a plebiscite on cutting $80 billion out of schools and hospitals? Why can’t we have a plebiscite for higher education changes that will lead to $100k degrees? Why can’t we have a plebiscite for an ETS v Direct Action?

    Just keep hammering Turnbull on that one question. If it’s good enough to have a plebiscite for this one issue, why not all these others? He’ll tie himself in knots trying to barrister his way out. The answer from Labor will be isn’t it simply a case that you only want a plebiscite when you are proposing something the hard right opposes? All these other things the hard right don’t want a plebiscite over because they want them but know that the Australian people don’t want a bar of your cuts to education and health, they don’t want a bar of your university changes, they don’t want a bar of your pension changes, they don’t want a bar of your climate inaction.

    That’s the way to show up Malcolm as a fake and get the focus on the policies not the personality.

  42. davidwh
    In many ways this change is a big downer for me and maybe for you if you delve deeper. Whilst I am immensely relieved that TA has gone, the change to MT doesnt immediately resolve the core problems in our political system. We have talked ‘shake up’ before; the Greens are not capable of it under the current guise, Clive couldnt hold it together long enough to shake it up and MT seems to be unable to shake it up for now. Maybe if he gets a big win at the next election and the small l’s take control of your party then…. but maybe he just doesnt have it in him. I feel it will have to come from an opposition using radical political reform as a platform to actually make a difference.

    There is another positive of the removal of TA. It shows the power still lies in the members of parliament elected by their constituents (in this case the members of the Liberal Party). This is where the power of parliament AND political parties should be. Other external powers (including political party factions and voting rules) still need to be reduced.

  44. Greens Adam Bandt’s interview on ABC RN Breakfast this morning:
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/adam-bandt-on-turnbulls-new-leadership/6785780
    [Earlier this week when Malcolm Turnbull became Australia’s 29th prime minister, he announced that there has never been a more exciting time to be alive—and that Australia is a strong country with great potential.

    As optimistic as the new Prime Minister is, The Greens have accused Malcolm Turnbull of caving into what they call the dinosaurs of the party—following the announcement that he supports the Government’s existing positions on climate change and same sex marriage.

    Greens Treasury Spokesman and Federal Member for Melbourne, Adam Bandt, joins Fran Kelly on RN Breakfast.]

  45. BK
    [huge collective sigh of relief]
    Oh yes. And doesnt it feel good.

    I forced myself to watch Kitchen Cabinet with MT in the days after the spill. The first 10 minutes reminded me of why I dislike Annabel Crabb and Tony Abbott (because MT is so different to him). The next 10 minutes reminded me of why I dislike Malcolm Turnbull.

    I think The Katering Show should get politicians in. It would me much better than Crabb.

  47. And referring back to the last thread especially TPOF’s comments about Shorten…

    Whilst we all knew for a long long time that Abbott was a walking disaster and would eventually bring himself undone, I think it’s too easy to assume that the Labor leader had no part to play.

    I, and I suspect many many left supporters would have been going at Abbott hammer and tong from day 1. The man is such an idiot and such a complete failure that the temptation to go to town on every single piece of idiocy would have been too great. The pickings would have been far too rich to pass over.

    I think the fact Shorten mostly stepped back and let Abbott blow himself up largely explains his low satisfaction ratings.

    But in hindsight I think Shorten’s was the smarter strategy and had he gone all out it could very well have backfired. Abbott was never effective other than when he had something to fight against. You can see by all the attempts to up the FUD on death cults and security that he was searching for a wedge, something he could use to fire up people and get them doubting Shorten. Instead Labor simple stayed out of the fight. That left lots of leftists dismayed, but they never doubted Shorten was better than Abbott. The centre though never had any reason to question if Shorten would make them less safe and so the focus stayed on Abbott. And Abbott was always going to fall apart if the focus was on him.

    I don’t know if Shorten is flexible enough to recalibrate his strategy to Turnbull, but early signs I think are good, and his whole career is one of a guy who ends up with the wins. The rules makes his position rock solid so it is going to be Turnbull v Shorten unless Malcolm flames out. It’s certainly much more interesting than wondering how Abbott was going to embarrass himself and all of us next.

  48. Turnbull has some bumpy roads ahead of him.

    He has a reshuffle that will create a number of dissatisfied members, there is a MYEFO in December which won’t be nice and will take a lot of explaining, and a budget to deliver in May next year with falling terms of trade and the likely bite of large numbers of car workers going out of employment; and all the time looking over his shoulder at the rather large pack of snarling rabid conservatives in his cabinet and backbench determined to make sure he does not deviate from the Abbott ideological agenda.

    There is plenty of scope hor his calm, measured front to come unstuck.

    I certainly don’t want the LNP back in charge, am still not fully sold on the ALP’s ability to sell their policies so would be happy with a minority ALP Govt. with a few good independents (Tony W for one, also Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie and a couple of others) and Greens to ginger things up a bit.

  49. Martin B
    [I think the ALP needs to be very careful here. I suspect the ‘no plebiscites’ and ‘voting is a waste of money’ lines might prove considerably less appealing than some think. ]

    I don’t think cost is ever a good reason not to have an election. People complain about the cost of a by-election when a member retires and even when parliament has to sit for an unscheduled day. Whatever the arguments for and against a plebiscite, cost shouldn’t enter into it. Our democratic processes cost what they cost.

  50. Simon #92 I agree. I posted yesterday that the Coalition needed/needs a period in opposition to re-build and re-boot. It should have happened after 2007 but the events of June 2010 interfered with what was required.

    So while I am very happy Abbott is gone I am under no illusions the problems within the Libs have been solved.

Comments Page 2 of 67
1 2 3 … 67

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *