The first opinion poll of the Malcolm Turnbull era is a ReachTEL survey of 3278 respondents conducted for the Seven Network last night, and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is at the milder end of what I would have expected from the Turnbull bounce. It compares with leads to Labor of 53-47 in the last two polls under Tony Abbott. The primary votes are Coalition 43.3% (up 3.0%), Labor 35.9% (down 1.6%) and Greens 11.9% (down 1.5%). However, Malcolm Turnbull records a clear 61.9-38.1 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Shorten had consistently strong leads over Tony Abbott in this particular series – of 57.9-42.1 at the most recent poll on August 28. Shorten’s rating on the five-point satisfaction scale has also taken a hit, with his combined good plus very good rating down 4.6% to 18.9%, satisfactory steady on 32.5%, and poor plus very poor up 4.6% to 48.7%. Respondents were asked to rate “the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister” rather than Malcolm Turnbull, and it found little change in his ratings at 27.8% for very good or good, 18.8% for satisfactory, and 53.4% for poor or very poor.
Also today, Roy Morgan unloaded its final tranche of polling conducted over the weekend, departing from its normal routine of accumulating two weekends of polling before publishing a combined a result. This poll also does not feature the usual SMS component, consisting purely of face-to-face polling, for a sample of 826 compared with its usual 3000-plus. Labor’s primary vote was up a point on the previous Morgan poll to 36.5%, with the Coalition down 1.5% to 35%, and the Greens down half-a-point to a still-imposing 16%. Labor’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences blew out from 55-45 to 57-43, and rose from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate on the sidebar has been updated with the latest Essential and Morgan results to produce a concluding result for Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. This records a 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred compared with last week, and credits Labor with single gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Western Australia. There were, however, no new results on the leadership ratings.
Also of note: the Australian Electoral Commission published draft boundaries on Friday for a redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory’s two seats. This is chiefly notable for proposing that the electorate of Fraser, held for Labor by Andrew Leigh, be renamed Fenner, in honour of virologist Professor Frank Fenner. The rationale is that the name Fraser should be freed up for use in the next redistribution in Victoria, in honour of the late Malcolm Fraser. More substantively, the redistribution proposes the transfer of the city centre and the southern parts of Turner and Braddon immediately to the north, together with Reid and Campbell to the east. This involves the transfer of around 10,000 voters from Fraser to Canberra (which is held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann), leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.
@K17/149
I don’t think they can solve that contradiction without apologizing to Labor for screwing them up.
K!&,
Turnbull will be keeping his powder dry atm. But, the poll flounce tonight tells you his ascension may not be the panacea that the Libs are seeking.
Add to that the disgruntled opponents and a new mandate might be his only hope for clean air.
An early poll to establish a mandate while he’s got a chance is a real option. Cory might have to form his new Party ex being a Senator.
[Here’s yet another epiphany/insight to the Abbott Government understanding of 50% of the population.]
Yet Abbott’s sooky absence from QT two days in a row is okay?
K17:
Actually when you think about it, perhaps a modest poll bounce is the best outcome for the coalition as it may give them pause for thought before rushing to the polls.
It remains my view that going to an election early would be a mistake. They need time to ‘grow’ MT and his new ministry into their jobs and into the public view.
[“My intention is to remain in the Parliament,” Mr Abbott said.
“It’s been a tumultuous week and I now intend to spend some time with my family to think about the future.”
Influential minister Scott Morrison voted for Mr Abbott in the leadership ballot, even showing Cabinet colleague Kevin Andrews his ballot paper.]
ScoMo controls 15 votes. 14 voted for TurnCoat, 1 (ScoMo) voted for Abbott. Machiavellian.
As for the Lying Friar, well why not suck on the taxpayers teat for a bit longer, and “not snipe”.
From the last thread:
As I see it there is a MYEFO to come soon and it won’t be pretty. Also those 44 votes against MT are all strong, strictly, conservatives; and many of them will still be sitting around the cabinet table.
Given that MT has stated he is a collegiate type of person he will have very little room to move on many issues that matter to the voting public.
Who was it that said ‘Life is not meant to be easy’ ?
Same old new taxes, same old policies, just a different spot for a salesman:
Anthony B, @swearyanthony 8m8 minutes ago
er. it appears Treasury have AGD-level knowledge of the internet. worrying.
RE: Online Tax.
confessions – I think you’re right. His best chance is to put some runs on the board (which he won’t do!)
I don’t know who publishes this but given the current situation it gave me a bloody good laugh
http://morningmail.org/turnbull-terrible/
Is this why new PMs get a honeymoon? Because our public broadcaster goes wall to wall positive for a bit?
The last few days have reflected terribly on the ABC.
What are the chances Tone hanging around will cost the libs 0.5 to 1 per cent at the next election just because of the potential for instability. People are so, so sick of that.
Lol – you lot need new talking points. Lots more ” Shorten has no plan” stories coming right up. labor has had its mid-term lead , now we return to normal programming chaps!
K17
I bet Abbott doesn’t stand at the next election.
So coalition trend continues of never being infront in a poll.
I’m curious if the Bludgertariat can inform me on this.
Is there any policy position that the PM held prior to his ascension, that he has NOT rolled over to the RWNJobbie element of the LNP about over the last couple of days??
I find it curious. Before the next election, his position is pretty safe. They are not going to roll another leader before they go to an election, and the RWNJ voters may not hand the Libs their first preference at an election under Mal, but the vast majority of them will still preference the LNP over the ALP.
So, surely now is the time to assert himself as leader and differentiate himself over things like SSM at least? Take some positions on policy that are actually what he has always claimed to espouse regardless of how they piss off a vocal minority in the Libs and make them wear it.
Its AFTER the next election (if the Libs win) that Turnbull becomes actually becomes vulnerable to the same RWNJobbies who screwed him as LOTO from destabilizing to get their boy Morrison in place. But he’s actually pretty much invulnerable to them at the moment ( despite all the hyperventilation ) unless they really want to run dead at the 2016 election.
Looks to me that he has a time window in which to grow a spine and that he’s not a well tailored but empty suit. But that “somewhat” closes after the election.
Exit ICSID @no2iia 1h1 hour ago
Spoiler:
upcoming EU press release to re-brand #ISDS as “ICS” (Investment Court System)
to get rid of the “four letter word”
#CETA #TTIP
DIOG – You may be right. But he knows nothing else. Without political conflict he is a totally empty man.
” ” Shorten has no plan” ”
At the very least Shorten has the plan that Abbott me-tood to get himself elected in 2013 before Abbott went nuts
161
Edwina StJohn
The Liberals have been pressed by Labor and their own complete ineptitude into dumping their PM. This is just the beginning. Labor will very easily win the next election.
I’ve just seen the ABC news tonight. Yes the reports were cheering of Turnbull, but what I took note of is Abbott being depicted as a massive failure on Indonesia. He has no real record of achievement at all to speak of.
What a dunce!
[Lots more ” Shorten has no plan” stories coming right up]
All interviewing people who have No EFFING Idea. Like you.
[162
Diogenes
K17
I bet Abbott doesn’t stand at the next election.]
Abbott will maintain the (entirely vain) hope that the Liberals will appeal to him to return to the leadership in time for the next election. Every time Turnbott makes an error, no matter how minor, mutters and whispers will be raised….Turnbott has been dumped once. The Liberal right will be planning to do it again.
[“Show us then.
Simple.”]
Better late then never… here goes…
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbotts-about-face-on-surplus-guarantee-20130127-2dfn9.html
“Mr Hockey told the National Press Club last year: ‘‘Based on the numbers presented last Tuesday night we will achieve a surplus in our first year in office and we will achieve a surplus for every year of our first term.’’
Now the bit the left leaves is the bit about proising a budget surplus in the first year. The bit they ALWAYS remove is the QUALIFYING Bit “Based on the Numbers” and as we all now know… Labor cooked the budget books so the numbers were horse radish.
[“I’ve just seen the ABC news tonight. Yes the reports were cheering of Turnbull, but what I took note of is Abbott being depicted as a massive failure on Indonesia. He has no real record of achievement at all to speak of.”]
He turned back Indonesian vessels illegally entering our waters without but a peep.
Labor reckoned they were going to declare was on us.
Also regarding the spying saga… pretty sure that was by one Kevin Rudd PM from memory, had nothing to do with Abbott.
confessions
[Abbott being depicted as a massive failure on Indonesia.]
How nice of them to wait until now to tell us rather than when he was actually trashing the relationship. It was news back then,
[ Better late then never… here goes…
http://www.smh… ]
Quoting Jihadists now eh
[172
TrueBlueAussie]
This is rubbish. When Labor left office public finances were in good shape despite the efforts of the LNP to talk the economy down.
The LNP record on the economy is very poor…unemployment is up, growth is falling, incomes are falling, public debt is climbing, the currency is much lower…everything that was predicted about LNP mismanagement of the economy is coming to pass.
There is no chance…just absolutely no chance….that the LNP will ever get the budget back into shape because they do not do strong public finance, they do not do fiscal reform and they cannot run the economy.
Abbott need the MONEY
He will stay on
Might be time for Bowen to be removed too! Don’t think labor needs a wayne swan clone shadowing treasury do they ?
Andrew Robb just showed what a complete hypocrite he is on the 7:30 report. According to him the Liberals sacking a first term PM is “different” to Labor because there was a lead up to it.
“Perhaps they thought I was – you know, my support for him – I did strongly support him in February and I felt then that if we had moved at that stage, people hadn’t seen any leadup to it and that we would just look like revolving chairs, look like a clone of the Labor Party. I feel it’s quite different this time. There has been a leadup to it”
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4313914.htm
Except, TBA, Labor’s “cooked” figures were from the Treasury, and the only major changes two these estimates were subsequently caused by the Coalition giving money to the RBA (without any request from the RBA) and dumping several revenue sources.
@TBA/172
“prioritizing” just means cuts to somewhere else like welfare, education, health, infrastructure…
[173
TrueBlueAussie]
Australia now traffics humans into Indonesia and into captivity for political purposes. Australia is the regional tyrannical regime.
The pressure is now on Shorten.
There is no reason for Labor not to dump Shorten now anymore, and Shorten knows it.
No longer can people claim dumping Shorten is going back to the bad old days of Rudd/Gillard/Rudd because dumping leaders who are polling as badly as Shorten is seen now as usual as having cornflakes for breakfast.
Couple of bad newspolls and he’s done for I’m afraid.
Lol briefly – yet the alp endorsed offshore processing? Please explain!
Yes TBa – re shorten, it is the return of the news poll faction!
OT, but pretty freaky. 🙁
http://warisboring.com/articles/australias-lost-bid-for-the-bomb/
[ There is, however, one startling and little known postscript to Australia’s nuclear weapons journey.
Unlike the U.S. ballistic missile submarine fleet, the British nuclear deterrent has a curious twist in its command and control structure. Welded to the floor of the control room of each British missile submarine is a safe containing a document known as the “Letter of Last Resort.” The role of the letter is to provide orders to the commander of the submarine in the event the United Kingdom had been destroyed by a pre-emptive nuclear strike.
Little is known about the contents of the letters and no British prime minister has ever disclosed the specific orders.
A number of senior public servants have given some insight into the choices presented to each prime minister for the letters. In brief they were:
Try to identify the attackers and retaliate;
Do not use the weapons as causing further destruction would be pointless;
Place yourself under Canadian or Australian command.]
[There is no reason for Labor not to dump Shorten now anymore, and Shorten knows it.]
Except for one minor detail, the rules don’t allow it. Give it up.
[“Abbott need the MONEY
He will stay on”]
Like Wayne Swan who I saw the other day sitting in Parliament busy using twitter… OR… possibly playing Bejeweled… not too sure.
I mean seriously, what is this guy still doing there? He’s like the left over baked beans you’ve left in your fridge for too long and it’s gone all mouldy
Geez one 50/50 poll and the trolls assemble.
Too much info on your eating habits TBA
Tba everybody knows swannie plans to hang around until he avenges himself on Shorten.
Edwina StJohn 178#
Nah Chris Bowen has been one of Labor’s strongest performers. I’m not sure who you have been listening too, because no one in terms media commentators, party insiders, or colleagues have been complaining about Bowen.
I love the people in the comments. Turnbull is PM for two days and it’s ‘Labor should move Shorten’, ‘Labor should move Bowen’, ‘Labor should get rid of the rank file vote for leader’
Get a grip…………
184
Edwina StJohn
The LNP are the authors of national shame. They traffic humans. They keep refugees as political trophies. They have militarised the civil domain. They have repressed the legal rights of persons who have broken no laws and left them vulnerable to unchecked exploitation and abuse. The LNP are a corrupt, depraved, despotic and cowardly excuse for government.
[ Couple of bad newspolls and he’s done for I’m afraid ]
Give Joe a go!
Shorten appearing solo on Qanda next week
May this have originally been a chance to look prime ministerial following Canning?
There is no reason to dump Shorten and everyone knows it.
Turnbull is completely beatable, not easily, but he’s made a Faustian deal to get the leadership and left a mightily pissed-off bat***t wing of his party to watch.
The shine will come off, but we’ll have a contest.
More than anything else, we have to STOP this culture of binning leaders when things get tough. No reforms come without difficult or unpopular choices … and good leaders need to be able make them without fear. Abbott’s issue was, yet again, thinking he was John Howard, without realising that Howard was a better politician and communicator overall.
Rudd was binned for other reasons (many justified), but it was still a terrible idea as it led to this situation where leaders are disposable. It’s a bad idea and a dangerous one.
Love the hyperbowl briefly.
183
TrueBlueAussie
The pressure is actually on Turnbott to show he really means something…anything. He will find it hard to do this. He is, as the Lib-Right know, made of just one thing – an over-inflated sense of his own magnificence.
197
Edwina StJohn
I’ve been understating the degeneracy of the LNP…a condition that is essentially unbounded.