The first opinion poll of the Malcolm Turnbull era is a ReachTEL survey of 3278 respondents conducted for the Seven Network last night, and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is at the milder end of what I would have expected from the Turnbull bounce. It compares with leads to Labor of 53-47 in the last two polls under Tony Abbott. The primary votes are Coalition 43.3% (up 3.0%), Labor 35.9% (down 1.6%) and Greens 11.9% (down 1.5%). However, Malcolm Turnbull records a clear 61.9-38.1 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Shorten had consistently strong leads over Tony Abbott in this particular series – of 57.9-42.1 at the most recent poll on August 28. Shorten’s rating on the five-point satisfaction scale has also taken a hit, with his combined good plus very good rating down 4.6% to 18.9%, satisfactory steady on 32.5%, and poor plus very poor up 4.6% to 48.7%. Respondents were asked to rate “the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister” rather than Malcolm Turnbull, and it found little change in his ratings at 27.8% for very good or good, 18.8% for satisfactory, and 53.4% for poor or very poor.
Also today, Roy Morgan unloaded its final tranche of polling conducted over the weekend, departing from its normal routine of accumulating two weekends of polling before publishing a combined a result. This poll also does not feature the usual SMS component, consisting purely of face-to-face polling, for a sample of 826 compared with its usual 3000-plus. Labor’s primary vote was up a point on the previous Morgan poll to 36.5%, with the Coalition down 1.5% to 35%, and the Greens down half-a-point to a still-imposing 16%. Labor’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences blew out from 55-45 to 57-43, and rose from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate on the sidebar has been updated with the latest Essential and Morgan results to produce a concluding result for Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. This records a 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred compared with last week, and credits Labor with single gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Western Australia. There were, however, no new results on the leadership ratings.
Also of note: the Australian Electoral Commission published draft boundaries on Friday for a redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory’s two seats. This is chiefly notable for proposing that the electorate of Fraser, held for Labor by Andrew Leigh, be renamed Fenner, in honour of virologist Professor Frank Fenner. The rationale is that the name Fraser should be freed up for use in the next redistribution in Victoria, in honour of the late Malcolm Fraser. More substantively, the redistribution proposes the transfer of the city centre and the southern parts of Turner and Braddon immediately to the north, together with Reid and Campbell to the east. This involves the transfer of around 10,000 voters from Fraser to Canberra (which is held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann), leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.
Charlie Edwards @81,
Agreed.
Game on for sure.
Labor has the advantage however.
Turnbull is locked in to the Abbott policies. He sold his soul to get the leadership.
Whatever new policy he comes up with has to pass the conservative approval test.
On the other hand Labor has a pretty blank canvas to work with.
Policy outlines on climate policy etc etc for sure but plenty of blank canvas for them to work with and detail out over the coming weeks and months.
Higher education policy to come shortly for one.
I am pretty confident actually for the coming months policy wise for labor.
The Tories refuse to admit their policies are shit labor has yet to fully present theirs.
Turnbull is severely confined with what he can do labor has plenty of scope.
Exciting times ahead and I think the times will be good for labor.
Cheers.
briefly at 90
I hope so too but having gotten rid of Abbott means the election will now be fought differently & hopefully will bring out the best in terms of ideas. Changing the battle does not mean there will not be a fight but there will now be a different fight requiring a little more finesse.
Abbott was an easy target in the end & he simply imploded after some good work by the Opposition. A change of tactics will be required though to deal with Turnbull but I don’t doubt that Shorten, if he’s good enough will formulate & prosecute strong policy.
I think this is now a period to look forward to & the best way to defeat Turnbull is through the prosecution of good policy while hoping that Turnbull’s ego will cause its own inevitable problems.
Labor will win the next election.
Pretty soon, it will become obvious that Turnbott stands for the same things that Abbott represented. As well, Turnbott will have to wear the odium of having toppled an elected PM. He will be seen as instability and treachery…as expedience and vanity. A pretender.
citizen
[ An arms maker in Florida is engraving Christian symbols on its assault rifles, in a marketing ploy denounced by a Muslim group as fomenting “hatred, division and violence”.
The Crusader assault rifle is inscribed with the cross of the Knights Templar, a religious order that fought in the Crusades, and a psalm from the Bible — features that its maker, Spike’s Tactical, says are intended to keep the weapons out of Muslim hands.
“We wanted to make sure we built a weapon that would never be able to be used by Muslim terrorists to kill innocent people or advance their radical agenda,” company spokesman Ben Thomas said. ]
Unless someone thinks to use a file or engraving tool to remove the engraving, the same way you typically remove serial numbers.
Nah! Them damned muzzies are too thick to think of that, surely?
If, with Turnbull being made PM, there is a side effect of renewed optimism and interest in the political process, and assuming it’s not focused specifically on his person, Labor might find they now get a better reaction (that is not instantly dismissive, jaded or cynical) to stepping up their efforts to reach out and constructively engage with the Australian people.
Charlie Edwards@81
Given subsequent info, it is fair to say that they might have just found a useful idiot on the other team, in whose interests it now is to maximise Labor’s vote.
Tones ain’t hanging around for the good of the parliament, party, or his humble sense of noblesse oblige.
Doyley at 100
Agreed, all good points.
I still can’t wipe the smile off my face at the defeat of Abbott. This is not only a great scalp for Shorten but I really think that in so doing he has done the country a considerable service from which we will all benefit.
[Yes, it’s the television equivalent of The Australian.]
Radio National, in particular RN Breakfast being the audio version of the Oz was the reason I stopped listening. If I want to know what’s on the front page of the Oz I’ll seek it out myself.
[This is not only a great scalp for Shorten but I really think that in so doing he has done the country a considerable service from which we will all benefit.]
Same here. And as I said earlier, the sigh of relief of many people I’ve come into contact with the last couple of days, has been palpable.
[…in whose interests…]
That would be the idiot’s interests, of course. 😉
fess
when The Oz went behind the paywall, there was a few days following when the ABC news reports totally changed — then obviously someone went out and bought them a subscription.
Charlie @106,
Yes, a win win all round.
Cheers and on that note a good night to all. Off to see ” Me, Earl and the dying girl ” for the second time.
confessions
[ Radio National, in particular RN Breakfast being the audio version of the Oz was the reason I stopped listening. ]
Agreed – Fran Kelly is the female equivalent of Toolman. It’s almost obscene to watch or listen to them drool over their pin-up boys.
If I was the LNP I would have hoped for a lot better than 50/50. In fact, I’d be pretty upset. Early days, but definitely smiling about this.
zoomster:
Actually that doe trigger a vague memory for me.
PO:
I don’t think FKelly’s reporting is as bad as Uhlmann’s has become of late, it was more the editorial direction of program guests interviewed and focus of reporting that mirrored what was on the Oz front page.
John Black usually pops up every so often and makes some pronouncement about demographic/social trends and gets it totally wrong. Moving on…
From the SMH Facebook page:
[The Sydney Morning Herald – smh.com.au
5 mins ·
Comment: There are whispers that SA senator Cory Bernardi is supposedly threatening to leave the Liberal Party to form his own more stridently right-wing party, writes The Andrew P Street.]
‘Whispers’ being from Ray Hadley or Andrew Bolt maybe?
When is Bernardi’s next pre-selection?
I’m sure his loyalty principles will be driven by that.
confessions
[ I don’t think FKelly’s reporting is as bad as Uhlmann’s has become of late, it was more the editorial direction of program guests interviewed and focus of reporting that mirrored what was on the Oz front page. ]
I’ll have to take your word for that. After a couple of instances of disgraceful Fran Kelly bias, I now won’t listen to her. Or Toolman either. Helps the blood pressure enormously!
117 – that was also mentioned on the project tonight. Hadley and Bolt might be the first to sign up methinks
Pricey said there were pretty toxic opinions from the ministers he spoke to, mainly about JBishop, Pyne and Morrison (who refused to run as deputy with Abbott).
So Abbott is staying on? Great, watch for rerun of Rudd/Gillard leaks.
50/50 is a fair starting point. From now it should be about policy, leadership and performance. An contest between the two. If the general consensus here is correct and nothing material changes with Coalition policy then Labor will win the next election.
I am prepared to be a little patient and see how things develop from here.
@davidwh/123
Turnbull is already doing non-policy, non-leadership and non-performance.
Turnbull quoted Mao Tse tung today when he was greeting the Womens Ashes team before going into bat for the far right in question time.
TPOF
No worries. I Would have liked your perspective on the comments by Steve Price. He was pretty pissed off with the state of affairs in Canberra
GG:
He was re-elected for a second term in 2013. So words of defection come cheap.
Fess
I had a feeling Abbott would be a no show again today
Diogs,
Winners are grinners!
Losers can please themselves.
fess,
So, he’s got 5 years unless there is aDD.
Can afford to go Bolshie.
Interesting we only hear the truth from labor people like senator black post retirement. His assessment is rightly damning of shorten.
[Can afford to go Bolshie.]
Yep.
Turnbull is great. He will raise the level of political debate and deflate the Liberal party at the same time.
RSJ,
Me old soak! I thought you’d died and gone to wherever someone like yo is despatched.
Sinodinis was dealing truth daggers and he’s still a force (apparently).
Not that it will do any good but I just sent the following email the 7.30 show on ABC:
“I cannot believe the completely unprofessional political report you showed tonight.
Firstly after only 2 days you’ve written off the Labor Party’s chances at the next election. It like calling a football game after only a couple of minutes play. And you drag out some fossilised Labor Ex Senator who no one has heard of to attack the party. I like our new PM but even I don’t think the game is over.
But worst of all you allowed our Trade Minister live on TV to basically imply that a vote for Labor is a vote for drug pushers. You should be ashamed of yourselves for allowing Minister Robb to make claims implying Labor supports drug pushers. Clearly his intent was to link the Labor Party to drug pushers and you let him get away with it. Labor according to the ABC supports Unionists who support Bikies who support Drug Pushers. I hope they sue you.”
@EDJ/131
Is this the same Senator Black that chaired an inquiry into drugs in sport which has done nothing? Especially the recent essendon football club?
No doubt when you signed the note “peppy7” your note got the attention it rightly deserves.
Interesting
[Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has raised the prospect of the Turnbull government taking an increase in the goods and services tax to the next election.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-might-take-gst-hike-to-the-next-election-says-josh-frydenberg-20150916-gjnz42.html#ixzz3ltcfyloI
[But today Mr Abbott did take a call from US President Barack Obama who saluted him as “a good mate on so many issues”.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has also heard from Mr Abbott, who replied to a voice message from Mr Shorten late today.
Mr Abbott told Mr Shorten he was grateful for the Labor leader’s words about him in Parliament on Tuesday.
After Mr Abbott’s bitter departure speech on Tuesday and his refusal to mention Malcolm Turnbull in his final public words as prime minister, there was considerable speculation about his future.]
Link
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/dumped-pm-tony-abbott-says-he-intends-to-stay-in-parliament/story-fn5tas5k-1227530626071
Diogs,
Here’s the news.
The Libs were always going to take an increase in the GSt to the next election.
The counter balance is tax cuts.
You should pay more attention.
The Oz is working overtime to promote Turnbull as ‘anything but an elitist snob’:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-school-of-hard-knocks-taught-lessons-of-success/story-fn59niix-1227529221091?sv
Yep, the ABC news tonight was unashamedly partisan. A big banner with Malcolm Turnbull’s face and wtte of “Getting on with the job” (could have been a Liberal party election billboard!), followed by Jennet talking about how wonderfully well Turnbull had gone in QT, giving Labor a demmed good thrashing.
Got the ABC news at last in SA. Yer right, Chris has found love again. I reckon he’s a bit easy… A disgrace even for them, total biased shocker. We’ve learnt that Mr Turbull’s “explained away” all his contradictions so that’s that then. And he’s had a “win” by fronting up to sign some NDIS stuff? Presumably Labor opposed it?
But didn’t they give it to Abbott?! When even the ABC can work up the guts to run stories against you Tones you know you’re stuffed. Piss off.
z,
Glib gets you so far imho.
Edwina StJohn
Posted Wednesday, September 16, 2015 at 8:27 pm | Permalink
No doubt when you signed the note “peppy7″ your note got the attention it rightly deserves.”
Edwina, I wear your contempt like a badge of honour.
ESJ
Indeed. Truth is in the eye of the beholder. Show me anyone spouting “Truth”, – or worse, “Absolute Truth” and I will quietly say “Dangerous Liar”.
I am ready to admit that some truth exists – for trivial issues. However, “Error” is ninety times more common!
Here’s yet another epiphany/insight to the Abbott Government understanding of 50% of the population.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-and-new-mum-kelly-odwyer-told-to-express-more-breast-milk-to-avoid-missing-votes-in-the-chamber-20150916-gjnwwh.html
Zoilord – If I was Turnbull, I’d be so tempted to go early, because I think that was Rudd’s mistake. But Rudd was in a slightly different position. He had a track record (whatever it was). If Turnbull shoots off to the polls people will be rightly suspicious. I don’t know how the LNP resolves that contradiction.