The first opinion poll of the Malcolm Turnbull era is a ReachTEL survey of 3278 respondents conducted for the Seven Network last night, and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is at the milder end of what I would have expected from the Turnbull bounce. It compares with leads to Labor of 53-47 in the last two polls under Tony Abbott. The primary votes are Coalition 43.3% (up 3.0%), Labor 35.9% (down 1.6%) and Greens 11.9% (down 1.5%). However, Malcolm Turnbull records a clear 61.9-38.1 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Shorten had consistently strong leads over Tony Abbott in this particular series – of 57.9-42.1 at the most recent poll on August 28. Shorten’s rating on the five-point satisfaction scale has also taken a hit, with his combined good plus very good rating down 4.6% to 18.9%, satisfactory steady on 32.5%, and poor plus very poor up 4.6% to 48.7%. Respondents were asked to rate “the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister” rather than Malcolm Turnbull, and it found little change in his ratings at 27.8% for very good or good, 18.8% for satisfactory, and 53.4% for poor or very poor.
Also today, Roy Morgan unloaded its final tranche of polling conducted over the weekend, departing from its normal routine of accumulating two weekends of polling before publishing a combined a result. This poll also does not feature the usual SMS component, consisting purely of face-to-face polling, for a sample of 826 compared with its usual 3000-plus. Labor’s primary vote was up a point on the previous Morgan poll to 36.5%, with the Coalition down 1.5% to 35%, and the Greens down half-a-point to a still-imposing 16%. Labor’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences blew out from 55-45 to 57-43, and rose from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate on the sidebar has been updated with the latest Essential and Morgan results to produce a concluding result for Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. This records a 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred compared with last week, and credits Labor with single gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Western Australia. There were, however, no new results on the leadership ratings.
Also of note: the Australian Electoral Commission published draft boundaries on Friday for a redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory’s two seats. This is chiefly notable for proposing that the electorate of Fraser, held for Labor by Andrew Leigh, be renamed Fenner, in honour of virologist Professor Frank Fenner. The rationale is that the name Fraser should be freed up for use in the next redistribution in Victoria, in honour of the late Malcolm Fraser. More substantively, the redistribution proposes the transfer of the city centre and the southern parts of Turner and Braddon immediately to the north, together with Reid and Campbell to the east. This involves the transfer of around 10,000 voters from Fraser to Canberra (which is held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann), leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.
lizzie @37,
Turnbull ripped into labor and Shorten over Chafta more than once over the last two days.
Once again I think he is locked in to the Abbott / Robb approach of no change.
If he does shift then every argument put forward by Robb and the Libs over the past weeks will be shot down in flames.
I would be surprised if Turnbull does shift at all
Once again I think he is caught.
Just my take anyway.
Cheers.
Oops
I see Toolman now has a new boyfriend. Didn’t take long to get over his loss.
Did anyone else notice that their ABC show the question from Shorten and the response from Turnbull, plus an unbalanced add-on from Bishop, was totally content free. In other words the policy content of the question and answer was completely absent from the news – only the theatre was worth reporting.
Give me The Project.
We all know uhlmann is married to a labor MP, but that does not mean he needs to be so biased to the liberal party in his coverage to come across as a decent bloke. He will be entirely excused if he was just balanced as all journalists should be. He is behaving more like a commentator than a journalist regrettably, the ABC should sack him if they are running short on revenue as they seem to be.
There needs to be an ABC bias investigation into Chris Uhlmanns efforts this week.
[30
ShowsOn
he is going to come across as a complete phony at election time.]
…or, in fact, will be seen for what he is…
TPOF
Agree the Project
Wow. You would have expected Labors lead of 53-47 to be at least reversed to a 53-47 lead to the coalition. But no, only 50-50 , and especially in the initial honeymoon moments. Not a good start for turnbull at all. I predicted it would eventually backfire. I am being proven right.
Let me see if I have this right. GST. All goes to the states. The Libs were talking about increasing it to 15% to replace the education and health cuts that never happened because the money wasn’t there to begin with.
To compensate for the GST increase, tax cuts and pension increases are provided. This reduces revenue to the Commonwealth. There is no saving to the Commonwealth in education or health because the money wasn’t there to begin with and was already factored into savings.
Is this more Hockeynomics?
Nationwide Marketing (?) in the field on NT issues, including voting intentions and generic stuff about how well we are traveling, and what is important.
There’s more truth with Heather from the Bachelor on the Project than there is on the ABC News now.
The polls are out already! They don’t let the grass grow. I guess we’ll see how things go in terms of a bounce over the next few weeks.
I was a meeting of older people today and the sigh of relief at ABbott’s removal was palpable when some old guy mentioned a new PM.
TPOF
Did you see the segment with Steve Price referred to by me earlier?
ABC journalist tonight said the government won’t hold much weight in the first couple of polls, probably because of the honeymoon period.
From previous thread:
[1179
adrian
“If we are to take Mr Abbott at his word – and why shouldn’t we? –
Chris Johnson
Canberra bureau chief”
It’s as though a cloud of extreme gullibility, naivete and stupidity descends on the commentariate when discussing Abbott.
Unbelievable.]
It’s a profession wide psychosis, with rare exception.
Victoria @ 64
No. Sorry. I only turned it over when I got sick of the ABC news, which was after I’d recovered from the Toolman and the anonymous producer that put together that ridiculously biased clip.
OMG really? What is the matter with these dinosaurs?!
[Possum @Pollytics 3h3 hours ago
Liberal Senator Ian Macdonald tells Senator Penny Wong to “learn to speak Australian” http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/09/16/15/51/learn-to-speak-australian-says- ]
And irony of ironies that MacDonald’s coalition colleague Barnaby purportedly speaks English, yet audiences could still benefit from subtitles whenever he appears on TV!
We have 12 months of TurnCoat to enjoy.
get used to it….
Hello Bludgers. First time poster, long time lurker. Some on here were earlier hypothesizing that the Nationals may have been aware that Libspill was on prior to it happening. Pretty sure that’s not the case. I had a phone call from one of the staffers for my local MP who was in a meeting with Warren Truss on Monday, when Barnaby Joyce interrupted saying he needed to speak to Truss immediately. Barely acknowledged the MP and ignored the staffer , which is apparently unusual for Barnaby. His face was a brighter shade of red than usual, and he was really agitated. so unless he’s a really good actor, I’d say Barnaby had just heard about it.
[ Chris Uhlmann
Updated 25 Jun 2010, 5:02pm
Kevin Rudd is the victim of a clinically planned and terrifyingly efficient political assassination. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-06-25/breaking-the-story-that-broke-kevin-pm/881566 ]
maybe he’s writing a similarly worded article right now for the events on monday. He might like to add how much more brutal mondays event was and how this assassinated PM hasn’t even been able to front question time since then
[There needs to be an ABC bias investigation into Chris Uhlmanns efforts this week.]
But he’s just, very enthusiastically obeying orders.
victoria:
And you were right this morning to wonder whether Abbott would be a show today.
It’s a really bad look for Abbott. He’d be forgiven for having a bit of a sulk, but this childish dummy spit is just ridiculous. It’s not as if he’s completely lost his income like many of those employed in now-abolished programs courtesy of his govt! Someone needs to take him to task over his self indulgence.
[Liberal Senator Ian Macdonald tells Senator Penny Wong to “learn to speak Australian”]
So, according to the Coalition, allowing cheap labour to enter Australia is racist because the deal is with China, but it is OK and definitely NOT racist to tell an Australian citizen of Chinese ethnicity to ‘speak Australian’.
I’m sure we’ll be seeing it shortly, paaptsef
[I’m sure we’ll be seeing it shortly, paaptsef]
We’ll see Abbott front in the reps before then.
Confessions, Abbott is a sook.
He should just announce he is resigning from Parliament now.
7.30: ‘Labor’s election hopes diving…’
Morgan..
[In mid-September L-NP support fell to 43% (down 2%) cf. ALP 57% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won easily.
Primary support for the ALP was up 1% to 36.5% while L-NP support had decreased to 35% (down 1.5%). Support for the Greens fell slightly to 16% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1.5% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 0.5% (down 1%), while Independents/ Others are at 10.5% (up 1.5%).
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, September 12/13, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 826 Australian electors.]
So who is this former Labor Senator that Sales refers to?
[So who is this former Labor Senator that Sales refers to?]
John Black whoever he is.
Having lost its greatest asset (Abbott), its fair to say that the ALP again has a battle on its hands. A comfortable victory at the next election is no longer a certainty & I think a genuine battle is on the cards. Hopefully this will bring out the best in policy from both parties & a genuine contest of ideas.
Adrian, Surely! And of course in twelve months time there will be a commemorative service then later a documentary about it with “killing” in the title
72
confessions
Pride goeth before a fall, they say. In Abbott’s case, it cometh after too. His failures grow by the day.
TPOF. John Black perhaps.
[So, according to the Coalition, allowing cheap labour to enter Australia is racist because the deal is with China, but it is OK and definitely NOT racist to tell an Australian citizen of Chinese ethnicity to ‘speak Australian’.]
I’m reminded of a Bill Maher video in which he replays Sarah Palin whingeing about immigrants who arrive in the US but can’t speak American.
Who the F!@k is John Black?
Seriously, some nonentity from the 1980s who knows absolutely nothing about the current Labor Party is dredged up by the national broadcaster’s flagship current affairs program in order to support its groupthink presentation.
Looked up John Black – a one-term ALP Senator from Queensland….30 years ago. If that’s how Sales plans to boost her “partisan equivalency” ratings, she’s doing it wrong.
[Nine News Australia @9NewsAUS 49s50 seconds ago
#BREAKING: Dumped PM @TonyAbbottMHR says he intends to stay in Parliament. #LibSpill #9News ]
perfect.
adrian
[ 7.30: ‘Labor’s election hopes diving…’ ]
Why would anyone watch that dreck?
[81
Charlie Edwards
Having lost its greatest asset (Abbott), its fair to say that the ALP again has a battle on its hands. A comfortable victory at the next election is no longer a certainty & I think a genuine battle is on the cards. Hopefully this will bring out the best in policy from both parties & a genuine contest of ideas.]
Labor has had a great success and procured the sacking of the worst PM in modern memory. This does not change the battle, merely the line-up. Turnbott will fail. He is already failing. Labor’s success this week will pave the way for more.
I did some research on Black:
[Currently a guest commentator for the ABC and a columnist for The Australian.]
Columnist for The Australian. Says all you need to know.
[Seriously, some nonentity from the 1980s who knows absolutely nothing about the current Labor Party is dredged up by the national broadcaster’s flagship current affairs program in order to support its groupthink presentation.]
And obviously SFA about the free trade agreement.
Gary S:
I wonder if he will resign, or just wait until the election.
How perverted can the religious right get?
[An arms maker in Florida is engraving Christian symbols on its assault rifles, in a marketing ploy denounced by a Muslim group as fomenting “hatred, division and violence”.
The Crusader assault rifle is inscribed with the cross of the Knights Templar, a religious order that fought in the Crusades, and a psalm from the Bible — features that its maker, Spike’s Tactical, says are intended to keep the weapons out of Muslim hands.
“We wanted to make sure we built a weapon that would never be able to be used by Muslim terrorists to kill innocent people or advance their radical agenda,” company spokesman Ben Thomas said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-16/gun-maker-markets-christian-assault-rifles/6779362
[Nine News Australia @9NewsAUS 49s50 seconds ago
#BREAKING: Dumped PM @TonyAbbottMHR says he intends to stay in Parliament. #LibSpill #9News]
Oh well, that answers that question! 😆
Probably just to the next election…
[Why would anyone watch that dreck?]
Yes, it’s the television equivalent of The Australian.
[I did some research on Black:
Currently a guest commentator for the ABC and a columnist for The Australian.
Columnist for The Australian. Says all you need to know.]
But of course that didn’t get a mention.
adrian @ 97
As you can see from my post at 91, unsurprisingly, they share the same tame Labor bagger. Also going on about how much better the Labor Party of the 1980s and 1990s were. I was around then. I call bullshit.