The first opinion poll of the Malcolm Turnbull era is a ReachTEL survey of 3278 respondents conducted for the Seven Network last night, and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is at the milder end of what I would have expected from the Turnbull bounce. It compares with leads to Labor of 53-47 in the last two polls under Tony Abbott. The primary votes are Coalition 43.3% (up 3.0%), Labor 35.9% (down 1.6%) and Greens 11.9% (down 1.5%). However, Malcolm Turnbull records a clear 61.9-38.1 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Shorten had consistently strong leads over Tony Abbott in this particular series – of 57.9-42.1 at the most recent poll on August 28. Shorten’s rating on the five-point satisfaction scale has also taken a hit, with his combined good plus very good rating down 4.6% to 18.9%, satisfactory steady on 32.5%, and poor plus very poor up 4.6% to 48.7%. Respondents were asked to rate “the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister” rather than Malcolm Turnbull, and it found little change in his ratings at 27.8% for very good or good, 18.8% for satisfactory, and 53.4% for poor or very poor.
Also today, Roy Morgan unloaded its final tranche of polling conducted over the weekend, departing from its normal routine of accumulating two weekends of polling before publishing a combined a result. This poll also does not feature the usual SMS component, consisting purely of face-to-face polling, for a sample of 826 compared with its usual 3000-plus. Labor’s primary vote was up a point on the previous Morgan poll to 36.5%, with the Coalition down 1.5% to 35%, and the Greens down half-a-point to a still-imposing 16%. Labor’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences blew out from 55-45 to 57-43, and rose from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate on the sidebar has been updated with the latest Essential and Morgan results to produce a concluding result for Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. This records a 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred compared with last week, and credits Labor with single gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Western Australia. There were, however, no new results on the leadership ratings.
Also of note: the Australian Electoral Commission published draft boundaries on Friday for a redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory’s two seats. This is chiefly notable for proposing that the electorate of Fraser, held for Labor by Andrew Leigh, be renamed Fenner, in honour of virologist Professor Frank Fenner. The rationale is that the name Fraser should be freed up for use in the next redistribution in Victoria, in honour of the late Malcolm Fraser. More substantively, the redistribution proposes the transfer of the city centre and the southern parts of Turner and Braddon immediately to the north, together with Reid and Campbell to the east. This involves the transfer of around 10,000 voters from Fraser to Canberra (which is held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann), leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.
@188 – I’ll tell you something… I actually agree with you.
Swan should have walked and given a fresh voice a chance in 2016 and Abbott should leave too.
…his pension is bigger than his annual salary, so he’s financially better off retiring.
[ Get a grip………… ]
ESJ has a firm grip….on himself.
Hyperbowl with gramma briefly, priceless !
Zoidlord from a while ago. I think Turnbull deserves more than three days before we make final judgements on how his term as PM plays out.
#givejoeago
Turnbull is good for Labor, it will shift the view to policy, with Turnbull rusted onto all of Abbott’s failed policy
Even worse as Turnbull has sold his arse to the Country Party & Liberal Christians, all to buy their support
Scott showing his vote to Andrews proves an anti Abbott deal was done… it won’t hold & Scott will try & knife Mal
The joy of it
[“Tba everybody knows swannie plans to hang around until he avenges himself on Shorten.”]
The Worlds Greatest Treasurer…
and not a single job offer from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan or Macquarie.
What Gives?!
Trolls are out in force tonight. I will just jump out and wait for tomorrow for BludgerTrack (and BK)
Steve Price on the Project tonight. Check him out at the 6 minute mark
http://tenplay.com.au/channel-ten/the-project/2015/9/16
[What Gives?]
He wants to remain in parliament. Hell, is that too hard to work out?
There has been a fair amount of exaggerated rhetoric today. Times they are a changing.
TBA
and not a single job offer from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan or Macquarie
All it proves is he didn’t sellout while in office like all the previous Liberal hacks Howard & Costello.
Corruption thy name is Liberal, can’t wait to see Tony get a seat on some coal mining board.
[“He wants to remain in parliament. Hell, is that too hard to work out?”]
Playing bejeweled on his iPad?
What a fulfilling job.
@210 – Not really that much of a change, really lol
[ There has been a fair amount of exaggerated rhetoric today. ]
And a lot of panic by the trolls.
I think the 50-50 poll has spooked them. If this is as good as it gets, then Turncoat is toast.
TBI – Nice to see you so chuffed about PM MT
Obviously the stabbing was worth it hey TBI? A nice little 50/50.
Price is just an enabler who fits in with the conga line of arseholes that the Project gives airtime to as its guests: Vizard, Gatto, Craig Thomson, Bolt,
ESJ – All that bloodshed for only 50/50. You’ll be crying yourself to sleep tonight.
shellbell
Steve Price’s wife is Greg Hunt’s COS. He would know what is going on with the libs. He is very pessimistic. As I am not a Liberal supporter, it is music to my ears
[The Worlds Greatest Treasurer…
and not a single job offer from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan or Macquarie.
What Gives?!]
During the GFC, in stark contrast to his international counterparts, he didn’t give money to the banks; he gave it to the people.
The people spent it, the economy tunneled through a financial squeeze, and the edifice of monetarist theory was struck a blow.
Bankers’ ideology hasn’t allowed them to see the verisimilitude of their model of the world. The pain of their cognitive dissonance won’t allow them to offer someone like Swann anything.
Not that he’d want it – he’s for working people.
50/50 must be close to Turnbull’s best result
vic:
The Project video isn’t available in WA yet! WTF?
Esj at 136:
You haven’t slip slid away yet?
Your endorsement of former Sen John Black shames even you. Either that or you can explain his theory that Abbott’s ousting was a tactical fail by the ALP.
I mean I get how Black might think MT – mk2 (the one compromised by the rwnj colleagues he owes his allegiance to) would be harder to beat than Tony. But how on earth does Black work out Shorten or the ALP had any tactical control over the Libs?
hehehe
[Schadenfreudian Joy
Schadenfreudian Joy – @geeksrulz
Rumour Abbott, Bernardi, Sheridan planning to form a new party. – The Santamarias]
Turnbott has already made his first mistakes. The one that voters will notice is he hasn’t sacked anyone yet…and this means they will get a big increase in their pension entitlements.
So that’s it. Turnbott has used taxpayer money to buy his way into power.
Fess
What time is fhe Project usually shown in WA?
Poor old Joe looks like he’s been worked hard then chewed up and spat out then stomped on
[224
victoria
hehehe
Schadenfreudian Joy
Schadenfreudian Joy – @geeksrulz
Rumour Abbott, Bernardi, Sheridan planning to form a new party. – The Santamarias]
It will be a boy band
Briefly
Lol
[There is no reason for Labor not to dump Shorten now anymore, and Shorten knows it.]
One good reason is the people are sick of knifings by parties.
Another is it is too early to see how Shorten v Turnbull will turn out.
Another is that there is no obvious replacement.
If politics were a chess game, we’d have to say the Liberals just sacrificed their most powerful piece to try to save a pawn…gave up an Abbott for a Hastie.
Trolls weep
https://www.facebook.com/tanya.plibersek/videos/965924566801669/
vic:
No idea I don’t usually watch TV, but surely at 8pm it’s already been screened here.
Bizarre.
The pressure is now on Turnbull. No movement in the polls and they have disposed of a first term PM for what. With mass layoffs iminent in the car industry in 2016 I am not sure how many are going to be starting up IT companies to remploy these people. turnbull will be presiding over a recession which will be useful in an election year. I guess he and scomo will have a conversation with the electorate about that. No lecturing though.
[It will be a boy band]
A cappella: no backing.
[230
Diogenes]
The other reason is that Labor will win the next election with Shorten.
Bernardi has got the cushiest job in Australia. He can be a complete and utter dickhead yet sit in the Australian Parliament (no electoral responsibilities) and pick up a big pension. Captain Capitalism won’t risk any of that.
232
frednk
I luv Tanya!
I was expecting 48-52 to Coalition. Considering Coalition got 51-49 with their second budget’s minor bounce, 50-50 seems rather flat. It’s possible Turnbull may also eat into Green votes but they won’t stick around if he keeps Abbott’s policies.
Tanya nailed it.
Abbott light:
https://www.facebook.com/tanya.plibersek/videos/965924566801669/
This from a Mark Kenny article in the SMH:
[And unlike Labor’s travails when pro-Rudd or Gillard ministers quit in protest when there was change]
As far as I can recall, no pro-Rudd ministers quit when he was defeated in the 2010 spill. They were all quite happy to work with Julia Gillard, and she gave any with even the slightest competence the benefit of any doubt. Typical MSM bullshit masquerading as knowledge.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/reshuffle-blues-malcolm-turnbull-balances-merit-and-unity-20150916-gjo3yu.html
TPOF – I think most people count Tanner as a casualty of 2010.
[123
davidwh
50/50 is a fair starting point. ]
Yes it’s only one poll, but I would’ve expected the first poll post-leadership change to show The Liberals with a much greater lead. 50-50 is a very weak and disappointing result for Turnbull and the Libs, especially given that extraordinary 70-24 PPM result in Turnbull’s favour. That Morgan TPP shows that people did in fact react quickly to the leadership change, and this poll shows that there is healthy scepticism amongst voters about whether Turnbull becoming PM will lead to substantive change. I think Turnbull would have to disappointed with this result, but it is only one poll.
@Gorkay King
I was honestly expecting a lot more (temporary) damage to the Greens vote as some of the new small l liberals they attracted in Higgins and elsewhere flocked to Turnbull, but they barely dropped at all. We’ll have to see what the next polls say, but if Di Natale has locked in this much support already, I can’t wait to see what happens when he and his new corps of Senators hits the campaign trail and Turnbull begins to deflate.
cud chewer@20
Not nearly so fast if so. The deflation of the Rudd return bounce was accelerated by the election coming soon after it. Ditto with Howard’s S11 bounce in 2001.
So they turf out abbott for turnbull. Turnbull has kept all policies of Abbott yet according to the ABC he has delivered in spades. Style is clearly what matters.
Further to my point at 243 – this is the moment when voters are paying their closest attention to Turnbull. And it is at this very moment that Turnbull is squandering their goodwill by selling out to the right and sticking by Abbott’s toxic policies. Labor’s message that this is change of style only will resonate because it is in fact true. If Turnbull is not careful, voters will very quickly become disillusioned, just as they did with Gillard.
TAnner was a definite loss in 2010.
237
Bernardi has only been a Senator since 2006. He is thus covered by the Latham caused reforms and gets super contributions rather than a pension. He also gets a redundancy payment if he looses an election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Bernardi