Tony Abbott fights for his political life for the second time this year, as Malcolm Turnbull makes his move.
Malcolm Turnbull, with Julie Bishop in tow, has reportedly met with the Prime Minister to request a leadership ballot. With only the weekly Essential Research looming in the way of federal opinion polling this week, that seems as good an excuse as any to launch a new thread.
UPDATE (Two minutes later): Malcolm Turnbull has resigned from cabinet.
UPDATE 2 (10pm): Turnbull 54, Abbott 44.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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What about the stalking horse Barnaby for PM. 🙂
I suspect Turnbull will be a far more effective PM than he was an Opposition leader. He has far more staffing support, no need to go groping around for Godwin Grech leaks, a far better pedestal from which to project his undeniable intellect and gravitas.
Shorten’s task just got infinitely more difficult.
mikehilliard
[ Will Margie take him back now she’s lost Kirraibilli? ]
Hadn’t thought of that! Let’s all spare a thought for the biggest loser in all this … Margie!
I wonder about the plebiscite? And if it goes ahead will Malcolm put it at the same time as next election?
Player
I can’t imagine Ford bothered moving in….
Rejoice Australia, for wicked Tony is nearly dead!
I suppose it goes without saying but 2GB has GONE BALLISTIC.
Callers are phoning in, unanimously panning Turnbull, what he backstabber etc. etc.
Also saying how wonderful Tony Abbott is, what a great effort he’s made to successfully rescue the economy (apparently the “Budget Emergency” is now a myth, now that Tony’s fixed it) etc. etc.
I swear I had smoke coming out of my car radio.
Ben Fordham (admittedly a lightweight) posited that this means the end of the Canning by-election for the Libs.
But of course Canning was only ever a test of Abbott’s leadership. Without Abbott it’ll mean very little, personally (except perhaps as an epilogue to his two disastrous years), and absolutely nothing at all as far as parliamentary numbers are concerned. So losing it is irrelevant.
Having said that, I’m glad I’m not Hastie. Then again, if Turnbull wins, maybe they’ll get a boost!
Again Bludgeroonies, just WONDERFUL to listen to 2GB in full melt-down, including the interview with Kennett (who pulled no punches re. Turnbull’s “Machiavellian” tactics in resigning, forgetting perhaps that this is EXACTLY what Abbott did to Turnbull in 2009).
The only hope for the Libs is for this to be a clean challenge, no muddied waters with a second challenger. Mind you, who would get in the way of Turnbull now?
rummel@191
Nice to see you keep your ‘record’ intact of very poor calls.
Keep them coming.
BK
[Posted Monday, September 14, 2015 at 4:35 pm | PERMALINK
sprocket_
I’m surprised the bookies didn’t recognise the virtues of George Christensen. Oh wait . . . .]
i thought you would see the $251 on offer for Sophie as value. They could parachute her in like Campbell Newman
“Half term tony – worst PM is history” will be a fitting epitaph to this terrible period in our political history.
part of me hopes that this will see aust politics come back to the centre and a more mature and forward-thinking era.
a bigger part of me wants to see it rip the LNP to shreds and result in a split – and one way or the other, I think that is where it will head if turnbull wins and then goes on to win an election. if he loses the election, the hard right will firm their grip on the LNP, if he wins they will scheme against him.
I think turnbull realises this is his only shot at getting to be PM, even if only for months.
if he wins tunrbull will go to the polls asap to cash in on the 10% swing he will get for not being abbott or shorten.
Let’s hope abbott makes this a bloodbath.
Six months on from Abbott’s March undertaking it’s the Ides of September.
[Basically my response is a two word slogan
Good Riddance
I know I should have made it a three word slogan.]
BLOODY Good Riddance?
Sorry if someone has already said this. While all this was happening I was getting a massage. Woo hoo! 😀
[Graeme Morris: the polls forced this.]
Australia: incompetence forced this.
Re Alias @148: He did far, far more than the usual template of simply announcing a challenge. He tore shreds off Abbott. He couldn’t get the devastating critique out of his mouth fast enough.
I was surprised at the speech. You’re right, six years of frustration and pent-up rage.
Popcorn prices will always be higher under a coalition Government!
If the Liberals fall in behind Turnbull, he will be an immense force in politics, very able to rally a huge section of voters from the centre. But what are the chances of that, after this?
[If the Liberals fall in behind Turnbull, he will be an immense force in politics, very able to rally a huge section of voters from the centre. But what are the chances of that, after this?]
I wonder if Abbott will spill the leadership, refuse to run, then endorse ScoMo?
rummel
Perhaps Barnaby will do a Steven Bradbury ? 😀
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYUjmEH9NNk
Will Turnbull end the secrecy of Operation Stop the Boats?
Canning swing may be under double digit now to hazard a guess.
Today is a good day for Australia, even if we have to (temporarily) put up with the Turncoat.
The second of the rotten apples that soured Australian politics for so long has finally gone. Time to rebuild our political traditions – such as ministerial responsibility – and re-invigorate our public institutions – such as the ABC and the CSIRO.
I hope Abbott at least has the grace to resign from parliament altogether.
zoomster@177, guytaur@178 and others
What we know from history is that the voters are generally inclined to give a new government at least two terms.
They even produced a very close result for Labor in 2010 (close enough for Gillard to form minority government) when they replaced the still quite popular Rudd with Gillard, and then the wheels fell off during the campaign due to treacherous leaks, “moving forward”, “real Julia”, etc, etc.
Likewise, Howard fell over the line in 1998 after a pretty disastrous first term for him.
The last time a first term government lost at the Federal level was during an unprecedented global depression in which employment, house prices and people’s bank deposits all evaporated.
Shorten was therefore gunning for a more or less unprecedented result. And this was despite the fact that he is not popular with or trusted by most of the electorate (even a lot of Labor voters) and is also a bit of a charisma-free zone. But he was looking highly likely to win simply because Abbott was that bad.
If Abbott is gone, and is replaced by Turnbull, who is not that good but is certainly not anywhere near the Abbott zone of badness, and will be doing everything he possibly can to get away from it.
So, as far as I am concerned, we are now back in situation normal, where it is well-nigh impossible for Federal oppositions to win back government after one term.
If Turnbull wins, then Labor’s only hope, under any leader, is if the Liberals are unable to paper over the cracks between the rightists and the moderates for the period up to the election. But, if he truly has the numbers, then Turnbull must have already gained the support of a fair swag of rightists.
Of course, if Abbott somehow hangs on, we are in a completely different situation. Labor will be jumping for joy.
Will be interesting to see how Labor plays the backstabbing angle, given they are not cleanskins.
two-thirds term Tony
How interesting that Gary Sparrow returned just last night
Did he know something was up, maybe he was in Turnbull’s office
BK – I’m being a real pedant, but the Ides of September are the 13th. “In March July October May the Nones fall on the seventh day” (and not the 5th, so the Ides fall on the 15th not the 13th. I sort of remember thsoi from Latin?Roman History.
If it is a straight fight between Tony and Malcolm, anyone game to guess the numbers???
Or will Tony pull out, and let Morrison run?
I agree with you Player One.
Not seeing a lot of Abbott supporters coming out and making statements of support
My wife just offered peanuts in the absence of a supply of popcorn.
When does Abbott get his Prime Ministerial pension rights?
[David Speers of Sky reports that Tony Abbott called in his most loyal supporters Eric Abetz, Mathias Cormann and Kevin Andrews to consult and prepare for his campaign.]
Wow, Tones really is done.
Baba
I am of the view that every election is an everest to win especially from opposition in the first term.
The fact we have come to the point where its serious to talk about a Labor victory tells how badly this government has done.
I don’t think that will change very quickly when Labor can run the LNP lines against Turnbull that were used against Labor. Plus the competence over NBN and Grech.
Turning those polls around will be a massive effort for them. They will get back some of the LNP voters close to rusted on who moved to Labor.
Getting the swinging voters a whole other story and it will really be a fight to get their vote. Its going to be like a second term election not a first.
BB – apparently it ramps up at 2 years – and he was sworn in on Sep 18th 2013
meher
All I’ve said is that Labor is ready for Turnbull.
That’s different to saying it’s a lay down misere.
However, I don’t think history is any guide here.
Hopefully Abbott goes today or tomorrow. It will make a Labor win next year less likely, but Tony Abbott is the most dangerous and incompetent Prime Minister we’ve had in a long, long time, possibly ever. He is a clown and a fool, a malevolent one at that. For Australia’s sake, he’s got to go.
So, Abbott doesn’t get to live in the Lodge. He doesn’t make his second anniversary as PM (which would be next Friday).
So, the shortest book in the world? “Suppository of Wisdom: the Achievements of the Abbott Government”. Or maybe : “Shirtfront: the Wit and Wisdom if Tony Abbott”
BB – so he will have to wait until he knifes Turnbull for a second time.
[When does Abbott get his Prime Ministerial pension rights?]
Hopefully the day after he’s dumped.
AA@228: According to Uhlmann, the ministers have all clammed up. No doubt, they are waiting to work out who is supporting whom.
They’ve just got to resolve to act. But things must be pretty complex behind the scenes. Eg, where does Loughnane stand on this?
I think will we see a “gentler” more bipartisan Parliament.
I wonder how long it will be until TrueBlueTroll and assorted other Lieberal supporters rewrite history to cast this as “inevitable” and proclaim their support for Turnbull all along?
BB
I read somewhere that due for PM pension rights at end of week.
Btw what did Jeff Kennett say?
Corbyn, Trump, Sanders and now #It’sOn – what a rocking three months in politics.
The Tories in Canada getting rolled would be the icing on the cake.
So, TPOF, ya reckon Labor can win in 2016 now? Or are the polls more a reflection of personal dislike for Abbott than any reflection on the public’s part about the Liberals dangerous ideology?
Guytaur – What about the tradie voter who thought the sun shone out of Tone’s behind? They will be rightly skeptical of a toff like Turnbull. I have a deep antipathy to Turnbull, which colours my views, but it will be interesting to see where we are after the sugar hit. What will Malcolm’s views be on the ETS, Gonski, Chinese Labour, etc etc.
Matt,
Eurasia has ALWAYS been at war with Eastasia.. 🙂
So if Abbott goes tomorrow, then no pension for Tony. You little bewdy!
199
All the PMs who were not PMs after 1927 when it was completed probably did not spend much time there.
At least on of the ALP PMs after it was build did not stay there because they have been a fervent critic of its cost.
Bushfire Bill
Please please please please let the pension rights kick in tomorrow. Just to be safe the day after just in case there is some funny rule about a change over .
guytaur@232: I know I am alone on here, but I do not expect NBN to be a big vote-determiner at the next election. Just as it wasn’t in the 2013 election.
It is probably worth Labor reminding everyone of Grech, but he’s a long way back in the past, almost as far back as Shorten’s alleged misdemeanours as AWU leader.