Tony Abbott fights for his political life for the second time this year, as Malcolm Turnbull makes his move.
Malcolm Turnbull, with Julie Bishop in tow, has reportedly met with the Prime Minister to request a leadership ballot. With only the weekly Essential Research looming in the way of federal opinion polling this week, that seems as good an excuse as any to launch a new thread.
UPDATE (Two minutes later): Malcolm Turnbull has resigned from cabinet.
UPDATE 2 (10pm): Turnbull 54, Abbott 44.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Wow its going to be a fun QandA!
A spate of anti Turnbull media releases arriving in my email account…Labor is more than ready for this.
zoomster
Do you think Turnbull will go early if he becomes PM
MT does a marvellous line in spin, but still adheres to the old policies, I fear.
ratsak
[The economy isn’t just going to miraculously turn around. And frankly Turnbull is better in the prospect than the eating.]
https://twitter.com/hashtag/libspill?src=tren&lang=en&lang=en
hahhahahahhaa tony abbott, didn’t last as long as either Rudd nor Gillard.
couldn’t happen to a more worthy bastard.
@149 – despite his smugness, PvO does actually know what he’s talking about.
I reckon Turnbull took 3 months to script that presser.
Let’s see how he goes speaking on his feet, off the cuff.
Spears: The Right have shifted to Turnbull
zoomster
Yes same with press gallery. I think all Labor MP’s just hit send all
Labor has been prepping for this since January.
guytaur
You took the words right out of my mouth 😆
I expect if Turnbull wins, the next polls will be in the Governments favour for about 6 months.
[A spate of anti Turnbull media releases arriving in my email account…Labor is more than ready for this.]
Are any of those pointing out the wrecking of the NBN, and for nothing?
Who will be new treasurer? Sco Mo?
JimmyDoyle@129
Great foresight from rummel –
[ rummel
Posted Monday, January 28, 2013 at 12:23 pm | Permalink
Abbott will turn out to be a great PM ]
Bahahahahahahahaha!!!
Turnbull will provide a short term hit to their poll numbers, but it won’t last.
Grahame Morrison is saying Turnbull will win
Uhlmann says Turnbull’s people saying they have the numbers.
Pyne counting, JBish and Morrison plus some right wingers minister
Graeme Morris: the polls forced this.
Thanks Graeme.
[Pent-up rage.]
Yes, that’s what I thought.
Will Abbott and Morrison be thinking “We should never have gone soft on refugees!”
Anyone who believes that Turnbull will be easy for Labor to beat is having themselves on.
[147
alias
Watching the re-run of Turnbull’s statement, it’s increasingly clear just how much animus there is in there. He did far, far more than the usual template of simply announcing a challenge.]
I think it was more about making a crystal clear case for change. Turnbull is trying to avoid the mistakes Labor made with Rudd.
@172 – that’s the issue. It’s not about the best challenge for us to beat. It’s about actually having effective government in this country.
Ha. http://libspill.com goes to Turnbull’s web site.
Sprocket
The feeling is its all over red rover as far as the numbers go.
Turnbull is many things but counting numbers in the party is one he is not stupid about. He had the numbers last time Abbott challenged him just illness hit one of his supporters at a last minute crucial time
cud chewer
I posted a spray from Michelle Rowlands on that subject earlier today –
the titles of the most recent ones I’ve received are:
– Malcolm Turnbull wholeheartedly and unreservedly supports Tony Abbott’s budgets
– Turnbull ruling out a challenge
– Julie Bishop on loyalty
baba
Saying Labor is ready for him is different to saying it will be easy.
Its a response to the doomsayers saying Shorten cannot win against Turnbull.
Agreed JimmyDoyle, there was a seasoned lawyer’s pitch to the jury, and a very powerful one at that, but I felt that in terms of the atmospherics, the body language, there was a distinct sense of carefully controlled but pent-up rage.
[Anyone who believes that Turnbull will be easy for Labor to beat is having themselves on.]
I will just be glad to get rid of that turkey as PM and hopeful that we will finally have a more effective government. Is it too much to hope there will be a renewed focus on policy?
[I’m putting good money on Turnbull having the numbers. An investment banker can count.]
Yes
“That’s one for you and two for me. One for you and two for me” and so on …
[Graeme Morris: the polls forced this.]
And what forced the polls you prat Morris?
ABC now polishing the turd….
“@AugustusBrown: Oh dear. ABC News 24 is already broadcasting an Abbott political memorial package.”
Sportsbet says its all over Red Rover
Applies to the leader of the Coalition (Liberals/Nationals/CLP/LNP) on polling day at the next federal election. Others available on request.
23:00 Coalition Leader at Federal Election Markets (1)
Malcolm Turnbull 1.10 Scott Morrison 5.00 Tony Abbott 6.00
Julie Bishop 11.00 Joe Hockey 16.00 Andrew Robb 26.00
Mal Brough 34.00 Greg Hunt 41.00 Christopher Pyne 41.00
Peter Dutton 51.00 Tony Smith 67.00 Sophie Mirabella 251.00
Bronwyn Bishop 251.00 Clive Palmer 501.00
Sadly unlike the Rudd /Gillard spills, I think the public will support this coup- everyone wants him Gorn
The cartoonists would have already done their contributions for tomorrow’s papers. Now they’ll have to get to work quickly!
So what can Abbott do now to delay, cheat and wreck?
meher
No one with half a brain would dismiss Turnbull as an easybeat. However, I hope he doesn’t continue the Abbott style of attacking Labor. It would be more useful to Australia if he would adopt a more negotiating tone than Tone so that some beneficial legislation could be passed, in the light of the economic problems Hockey has encouraged.
It’s taken two years, but Liberal MP’s have finally realised who the biggest “barnacle” on their ship’s hull is.
Dave.
Abbott will be a great PM at his second shot at it.
What will Tony do? Will he stay with his Fed Police mates? Will Margie take him back now she’s lost Kirraibilli?
[Lurking for a long time. This cannot happen now!!! We need the Mad Monk to stay for a while longer to ensure the complete destabilisation of the Liberals into its constitute un-electable sub groups.
No no no………..]
Welcome, but fear not. The chance of the Libs disintegrating is still very much alive.
Shorten and Labor only need to open up a crack in Turnbull. If they can do that you can put good money on the RWNJs opening up the crack into a gaping chasm. If Turnbull doesn’t establish a clear lead early then the disunity will grow and any small victories for Labor will be used by his internal enemies.
sprocket_
I’m surprised the bookies didn’t recognise the virtues of George Christensen. Oh wait . . . .
Paddy O
I think you are spot on!
Is anyone gonna stand up as an alternative conservative choice? ScoMo?
ABC24 has started the obituary for Abbott
Alias – I would be surprised if Malcolm Turnbull has ever appeared before a jury in his life.
I’m not sure that saying the last 2 years has been an unmitigated disaster is great politics either.
I wonder if Abbott is the only PM to have never spent even a single night in the Lodge?
Bill Shorten: “crap, now I need policies”.
Given he’s had time to stockpile zingers, expect a barrage of them now.