Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A return to the norm after a somewhat surprising result last week from Essential Research, which also finds the Liberal Party perceived as much further to the right than Labor is to the left, and the ABC’s Q&A program to be a lot more popular than Tony Abbott.

After an anomalous drop to 51-49 last week, the Labor two-party lead in the Essential Research rolling average is back to 52-48 this week, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one), 11% for the Greens (up one) and 2% for Palmer United (up one). Further questions find the Liberal Party rated too right wing by 34%, too left wing by 7% and about right by 26%, whereas only 20% think Labor too left wing compared with 16% for too right wing, and 28% about right. The poll also features an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which finds the Coalition improving from a low point when the question was last asked in February, with the biggest movement in education, health, environment and climate change, generally smaller ones in its economic areas of strength, and no movement on national security and asylum seekers. A question on the ABC’s Q&A program finds is to be considerably more popular than its critics in the government, with 46% rating it good and 11% poor (including 37% and 23% among Coalition voters). After given a precis of the two parties’ National Broadband Network policies, 38% favoured Labor’s and 29% the government’s. On the economy, 35% rate it as headed in the right direction against 41% for the wrong direction, essentially unchanged on May.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

794 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Nope, they couldn’t hedge.

    There’s not enough size in the market to do it. Yes, you can transact CDS on banks, but not in the size necessary to hedge the Commonwealth Govenrment’s exposure.

  2. [ and the ABC’s Q&A program to be a lot more popular than Tony Abbott. ]

    An obnoxious skin disease is more popular than Tony Abbott. 🙁

  3. To the gov that RC is good use of tax payer money, thinks that Nauru probe is waste of money:

    newmatilda ‏@newmatilda 6m6 minutes ago

    Govt That Brought U Wind Farm-Halal Inquiries Rejects New Nauru Probe As Waste Of Money http://bit.ly/1KZn7iB

  4. Dateline Canberra February 2017

    [It’s actually the key to better business, more honest business and a better, more honest Liberal party,” Mr Shorten said.]

  5. [The Australian Border Force removed about 30 detainees from the Maribyrnong Detention Centre in a raid early on Friday that a witness described as “brutal and intimidating”.

    A refugee advocate speculated the raid was undertaken to make way for any visa defaulters nabbed in the Melbourne CBD in the infamously cancelled Operation Fortitude.

    But that claim was emphatically denied by an Immigration Department spokesman who said the operation was a routine search for unauthorised and illicit contraband.

    “The Department can confirm a number of detainees were recently transferred within the detention network, as part of a pre-planned move,” said the spokesman.

    “The searches conducted at the MIDC on Friday were not linked to the transfers. For operational and security reasons we cannot comment further.”

    According to one source, a team of up to 70 officers from the ABF, its dog squad and Serco Emergency Response Team swooped on the centre at 2.30am.

    They are believed to have woken the detainees, handcuffed them and put them on buses bound for chartered flights.

    The raid followed “success of Operation Safe Centres in March earlier this year” and was conducted to ensure the “safety and good order of our Immigration Detention facilities centres, while identifying detainees who are doing the wrong thing”, he said.

    However, a source told Fairfax Media the officers found only “two glass smoking pipes”, “Iphones” and “trolleys upon trolleys of extra linen” and extra mattresses that the detainees had amassed during their stay at the centre.

    “No drugs were found,” he said.

    “In a search lasting all day, almost 80 officers searching 90 detainees and all they find is a tattoo gun and a couple of glass bongs?”

    “It was an overkill.”]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/treated-like-dogs-australian-border-force-raids-maribyrnong-detention-centre-20150831-gjc7j8.html#ixzz3kSwqwonb
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  6. zoidlord – not to mention $55 million to ex-Khmer Rogue cadres to take 4 refugees. (still no sign of murdoch media deciding this was a ye another massive blunder by an incompetent minister in an incompetent government. Tele is yet to superimpose morrison, dutton and abbott’s heads onto Khmer Rogue cadres’ bodies).

  7. [You know you’ve crossed a pretty thick line when you’re coping decency lectures from Sandilands.]

    or where sandilands sounds like the smarter and less arrogant tool in the conversation.

  8. For all those peanuts out in voter land who think this lot are the best economic managers(pay walled):

    [There is a debt emergency! All hands to debt panic stations! Except, as freelance journalist Alan Austin explains, Australia’s debt has risen the most under this very government.

    Clearly the greatest borrowing in recent years has been by the Abbott government, which has added a whopping $111.36 billion in just two years.]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/09/01/australia%E2%80%99s-government-debt-look-over-there-bill-shorten/

  9. Kevin or William

    I would be interested to know if in your experience the apparent propensity for over 60s to vote for the LNP is common to all pollsters (I assume it is)?

  10. Here’s a question for Bludgers, during a heated discussion about Heydon & TURC last night my dear old mum piped up & accused the unions of striking on the wharves during WW2 thus blocking vital supply to our troops. Is that so?

  11. [accused the unions of striking on the wharves during WW2 thus blocking vital supply to our troops.]

    The government has forgiven Japan for the atrocities and the current PM has commented on the bravery of the Japanese soldiers so it’s about time your mum forgave the unions.

  12. [ mikehilliard

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Here’s a question for Bludgers, during a heated discussion about Heydon & TURC last night my dear old mum piped up & accused the unions of striking on the wharves during WW2 thus blocking vital supply to our troops. Is that so?

    ]

    One opinion :

    Australia’s Secret (And Unhistorical) War

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-11/stanley-australias-secret-and-unhistorical-war/5960090

  13. mh

    [Here’s a question for Bludgers, during a heated discussion about Heydon & TURC last night my dear old mum piped up & accused the unions of striking on the wharves during WW2 thus blocking vital supply to our troops. Is that so?]

    There was a book published recently making that claim. Dunno if it’s true or not though.

  14. phoenix

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Here’s a question for Bludgers, during a heated discussion about Heydon & TURC last night my dear old mum piped up & accused the unions of striking on the wharves during WW2 thus blocking vital supply to our troops. Is that so?

    One opinion :

    Australia’s Secret (And Unhistorical) War

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-11/stanley-australias-secret-and-unhistorical-war/5960090

    Sorry for my bias – unlike Abbott and shonks – I TRUST the ABC

  15. Has I understand it, during the second world war the Warfies objected to iron being shipped to Japan as they feared it would be used for bomb making, I have never heard of them blocking supplies.

  16. phoenix #71
    Well, the author of that article is Peter Stanley, a Research Professor in the Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and Society at UNSW in Canberra, and his book Bad Characters: Sex, Crime, Mutiny, Murder and the Australian Imperial Force was awarded the Prime Minister’s Prize for Australian History in 2011.

    So I think you’re on safe ground there.

  17. [ mexicanbeemer

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Has I understand it, during the second world war the Warfies objected to iron being shipped to Japan as they feared it would be used for bomb making, I have never heard of them blocking supplies.

    ]

    I well remember my folks talking about ” PIG IRON BOB ”

    The wharfies who stopped ‘Pig Iron Bob’

    On 15 November 1938, 180 wharfies prevented pig iron being loaded onto ships bound for the Japanese war machine.

    http://workinglife.org.au/2013/11/22/the-wharfies-who-stopped-pig-iron-bob/

  18. Re Wartime wharves, there is the Colebatch book which won a literary award under the auspices of Gerard Henderson and caused Miranda Devine’s heart to flutter

  19. pheonix + others

    Thanks for that link, I’d forgotten about Abbott’s history prize. That must be where she heard about it because I can’t recall her ever mentioning it before.

    The other day I caught her watching the Bolt report with Henderson, she thinks he’s one of Australia’s finest journalists (Hendo that is).

  20. [ mikehilliard

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    pheonix + others

    Thanks for that link, I’d forgotten about Abbott’s history prize. That must be where she heard about it because I can’t recall her ever mentioning it before.

    The other day I caught her watching the Bolt report with Henderson, she thinks he’s one of Australia’s finest journalists (Hendo that is).

    ]

    Hi Mike – hope the links helped ….

    As for sorry – Sign at TBA’s United Patriots Front meeting ….

    – SORRY!- We Are Sold Out of 5XL Male T-Shirts!

  21. For the only time in my life, I agree with what Barnaby Joyce said about Depp’s poor dogs. (smuggled out of the plaNE in a handbag, I believe) And the way the said it.

    Actually, Joyce could have done better. A few well-placed f#$%%g b@$$%#rd P!ss off if you can’t respect our quarantine laws, you #&*hole would have improved it.

  22. Mike, it’s no secret (from anyone of my age whose memory is still working anyway) that in the early stages of WW2 the Commos (and therefore the WWF whom they led) opposed the war because Stalin and Hitler were nominal allies. Then on 22 June 1941 Germany invaded Poland on their way to Russia and the Comms were suddenly the most patriotic supporters of the war, and remained so to the end. Their capacity to believe one thing fervently because the Party said so, and then believe the reverse when the Party line changed, is well told in Frank Hardy’s And the Dead Are Many. It’s also part of what Orwell is referring to in 1984.

    The recent book, which I haven’t read, seems to say the WWF sabotaged the war effort all through the war, and the review, which I’ve glanced at, seems to say they did. Typical stupidly-ideological history war. Truth is in between.

  23. Every mans dream but not for this poor chap.

    This is very sad!

    [ROBERTO Esquivel Cabrera has just set a world record for having the longest penis.

    The 52-year-old Mexican measured in at a whopping 18.9 inches (48.2cm), with a tip circumference of 10 inches (25cm), at certification by World Record Academy officials yesterday.

    Mr Cabrera had been hoping for recognition by Guinness World Records but had to settle for the less famous certifier after Guinness confirmed it had no category for penis size.

    The World Record Academy stepped in after Mr Cabrera shared his story with a local journalist in an interview that was picked up by the world press over the weekend.

    He told how his massive member had ruined his life, preventing him from having a relationship and even getting a job.

    “Look where it is, it goes far below the knees,” Mr Cabrera said.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/lifestyle/health/lonely-life-of-roberto-esquivel-cabrera-the-man-with-the-worlds-longest-penis/story-fnihoylo-1227506743937?sv=8245049bc0225015582b1028ad2bc908

  24. I wonder how many of those reporting sabotage by wharfies or other unions (e.g. industrial action, pilfering) would also mention some of the less productive activities within the military (pilfering and decisions based on pettiness, jealousy, ambition, incompetence, laziness) that did cost lives? It’s not without reason that acronyms such as FUBAR and SNAFU came from the military.

  25. It is important for policy elites to get their heads around this concept:

    we characterise the debt sales by the central bank as a monetary policy operation designed to provide interest-rate maintenance. This is in stark contrast to orthodox theory which asserts that debt-issuance is an aspect of fiscal policy and is required to finance deficit spending.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31711

  26. And Charlie, without having the expertise of Will or Kevin, I’ve read a lot of polls and yes, they all show the over-65s as a conservative bunch on everything – voting, monarchy, same-sex marriage, everything else. As a recently-over-75 (yes you can wish me happy birthday for last Friday), this distresses me – is my generation, who demonstrated against the Vietnam War, turning conservato-senile in their old age or do the rich and complacent just live longer?

    Considering the “baby boom” started in 1946, I think the pollsters should now break the categories at 70 rather than 65 so we can see whether the boomers who demonstrated for peace, adopted rock n roll, indulged in pre-marital sex more openly than any generation before, etc etc, have really turned into old Tories, or is it just that so far they’re outnumbered in the 65+ bracket by the 76+s? I HOPE it’s the latter, but further and finer research may tell us.

    And by the way, the terminology for my lot is “war babies”. Most of the Stones, Beatles and Animals were war babies, though Old Mr Watts is pre-war. If we don’t succumb to drugs or bullets, we live forever (though the polls seem to show some of us are turning conservative – ughhh!) That’s a sign of hardening of the arteries – that lot will DIE while the rest of us live on.

  27. Nicholas – I think you need to get your head around the fact that the RBA doesn’t issue debt. Nor does the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, the BoC or the RBNZ.

    The do however, stand ready to do almost infinite repo. So I’m really not sure what you’re trying to say.

  28. Mmmmm… bubonic plague

    [Untreated, up to 93 per cent of those infected will die. It’s a figure that makes ebola look lightweight. But timely treatment with modern antibiotics can bring the fatality rate down to about 16 per cent.

    So why is a disease associated with a bacteria carried by fleas on rats and mice producing such a startlingly high death rate in a First World nation like the United States?]

  29. Must go out for my regular evening bike-ride now. I don’t expect to live for ever without working at it. Mick dances across the stage, I push a pushie.

  30. Jack a Randa 89

    I agree with U re the over 65s being conservative in all things , although not as old as you (happy birthday for 28th mine was the 30th) I mix with mainly over 60s, have coffee with them etc and all with one exception vote in our seat for National Party. BUT TA,JH CP have changed them, some have already changed voting pattern (I believe them) say they can’t vote while TA etc are in charge, don’t like Shorten but will preference ALP after voting Green or whatever. Which is why I hope they keep Abbott as leader 😀 think and believe Pruneface HartsuykerMP is in for a shock in this seat

  31. This afternoon I had conversations with two old acquaintances who have voted Liberal forever. Both will not be voting for them this time but look like going for the Xenophon candidate. One of them has a long time friend who is the sister of a long serving state Liberal Minister and when the subject of Abbott came up she just about dropped out of her tree and said that the man was useless at everything and wasn’t a statesman’s bootlace!
    He’s poison out there.

  32. Jack A Randa at 89

    Thanks & happy birthday. Your observations mirror mine.

    My next point as you have alluded to is that it is unlikely that these folk always voted conservative earlier in their lives meaning they have become conservative as they have aged.

    I find this interesting in that it contrasts with many of my friends 50+ who often voted conservative earlier in life but who are now increasingly progressively minded & voting accordingly.

    This makes me wonder if the dividing line (blurred as it may be) is that those born before 1950 are becoming conservative (for whatever reason) but that baby boomers are growing increasingly progressive?

  33. I think you need to get your head around the fact that the RBA doesn’t issue debt

    Commonwealth Government Bonds are issued by the consolidated government (Treasury and the central bank). They are not necessary for government spending. Their function is to maintain the central bank’s overnight interest rate target, which could be achieved by other means.

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