ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new poll from ReachTEL is their third in a month to show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that a ReachTEL poll on the Seven Network records Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, which is unchanged on ReachTEL polls conducted on both July 30 and August 6. Seven also reported that Bill Shorten was favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister by 55-45 among men, compared with 56.0-44.0 in the previous ReachTEL poll, and 61-39 among women, effectively unchanged on the last poll’s result of 60.8-39.2. That appears to be all the information Seven provided, but hopefully the ReachTEL site will have full results soon.

UPDATE: Full results here. The primary votes are 40.3% for the Coalition (down 0.3%), 37.5% for Labor (down 0.5%), 13.4% for the Greens (up 0.5%) and 1.3% for Palmer United (down 0.1%), with the bracketed comparisons referring to the July 30 poll for Seven rather than the August 6 one for Fairfax.

The poll provides more evidence of an improvement in Bill Shorten’s standing, his good-plus-very good rating up from 19.6% to 23.4%, with poor-plus-very poor down from 45.9% to to 44.0%. Tony Abbott’s numbers are little changed at 26.0% (down 0.8%) and 53.8% (up 0.8%). Bill Shorten’s overall lead as preferred prime minister is 57.9-42.1, up from 55.1-44.9.

A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull on 43.5%, Julie Bishop on 22.8%, Tony Abbott on 21.4% and Scott Morrison on 12.4%. The last such question by ReachTEL was in its April 23 poll, but the results are not comparable as Joe Hockey has been dropped from the options list and replaced by Scott Morrison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,496 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Jack a Randa, tiny bit more of a look; and this exchange in the HCA special leave application in the Duncan case:

    [HAYNE J: I understand what you say about that, and all this proceeds on the assumption that the Ebner test is to be applied to somebody not exercising judicial power, but conducting a statutory inquisition.
    MR HUTLEY: That has been common ground – – –
    HAYNE J: I understand that is common ground.
    MR HUTLEY: – – – but that has not been dealt with, your Honour. That has been accepted – – –
    HAYNE J: I understand that, but I would have thought the applicability of that test was itself a matter for debate.
    MR HUTLEY: If so, your Honour, that debate has not taken place – – –
    HAYNE J: I understand that.
    MR HUTLEY: – – – and that itself is an important question.
    HAYNE J: If any other test is to be applied, it would be less rigorous.]

  2. Lizzie

    Yes and there isn’t a reason why unions couldn’t do that, but and I know it was more than likely for 4corners benefit but they showed him walking into 7-11 stores and talking to staff whilst covering their identities.

  3. Bemused

    [One of the advantages of using cccp is that you never see this strange italics phenomenon.]

    can you install that voodoo code on an iPad?

  4. Government dumps bank deposit tax:

    [But Prime Minister Tony Abbott said his Government had consulted the banking sector and decided the tax would not begin as planned in January.

    “The last way to make our banks strong, the last way to protect depositors is to hit banks with more taxes,” he said.

    “That’s the Labor way, it’s not the Coalition way. So, Labor’s bank deposit tax is dead.”]

  5. Afternoon all. I had to laugh at Dutton’s comment about a Fairfax (and the ABC) “jihad” against the government. ROTFL 🙂
    [Does anyone else remember Dutton’s outrage over News trying to bring the previous Labor Government down? Neither can I.]
    Indeed. I also do not recall Dutton complaining about the Fairfax media’s quite vigorous pursuit over corruption of both Craig Thomson and Eddie Obeid, both cases having a great deal to do with the subsequent electoral defeat of both the NSW State Labor government and the Federal Labor government.

    So Dutton is not only shooting the messenger, he is calling the messenger a terrorist.

  6. @ltep/2458

    This shows that Coalition Party supports big business, by not taxing companies, but taxing consumers with GST and other taxes (such as Online Tax).

  7. sprocket_@2457


    One of the advantages of using cccp is that you never see this strange italics phenomenon.

    can you install that voodoo code on an iPad?

    Not as far as I am aware.
    A question best addressed to Musrum and if the answer is ‘no’, then perhaps he might consider and iPad version.

  8. Abbott just announced axing a bank deposit tax which doesnt exist.

    And its not in Labor’s platform. But that hasnt stopped him from blaming Labor.

    Lying is in his DNA

  9. “…more taxes…That’s the Labor way, it’s not the Coalition way. So, Labor’s bank deposit tax is dead.”

    Right, Tony… Because your Government never implemented any new taxes, didn’t it?

  10. Maybe Dutton’s deciding to jump-the-shark on reporting of his monumental blunder over Operation Fortitude was to hide this fact: Joe Hockey will soon become the Trillion Dollar (Debt) Man.

    On current trend we will pass the Trillion dollar foreign debt mark in the September Quarter, which will be reported by ABS in early December. Well done Joe, you have earned the title! Both government debt and foreign debt are now rising faster under the Liberals than the average for when Labor was in office.

  11. Socrates at 2460

    Seems that Pete the Plod has a very short memory. I’m sure the boot was on the other foot a couple of years ago.

    As for suggesting that Fairfax & the ABC are running a jihad against the government, its just another case of LNP overreach & very vety silly.

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 12:56 pm | Permalink
    SHEA – How many 7/11 employees would actually belong to the union? Why are unions responsible for people who don’t join?]

    Yep, good question, [the first one, the second is more academic] exactly my point. Probably none I would guess and that would be pretty typical of franchise employment.

    Franchisees are able to get around union involvement, hire ‘vulnerable’ workers – ‘kids’ in particular – minimise union membership by on-site pressure and then impose, by ‘agreement’, wages and conditions on their workers that are below par because they fall under the minimum staff number requirement that allows regulatory bodies and unions to be automatically involved.
    For unions to be involved requires an active assertive stance by an individual worker where such action could lead to loss of job etc and itself has a prerequisite that the worker is informed of their [minimised] rights which they almost certainly initially lack.
    The odds are heavily stacked against the workers and getting unions involved.

  13. So, Abbott forgoes another $2bn, and he’s going to shower us with tax cuts at the next election. Meanwhile, the national debt keeps piling on.

  14. Just saw Dutton being interviewed on TV. He stated one of the achievements his government has achieved is laying down Labor’s debt.

    You can see on his face he realised he made a mistake just after he said it and was open to challenge, but the interviewer let it go. Pity.

  15. Zoidy

    Bank Transaction tax is unnecessary, the GST was designed to replace it. There are plenty of other potential areas for tax changes.

  16. Charlie Edwards

    Yes that was why I thought Dutton’s remarks were so funny. He has been shown to have a glass chin. Meanwhile he still has not explained why his hand-picked Border Force Chief said he had not received the Friday press-release when he later had to admit that he had. Who was lying: Quadvleig or Dutton?

    BTW interesting that both Dutton and Dyson Heydon do not read their email. What a coincidence!

  17. the australian and herald sun on-line editions gives NO coverage to Cambodian $55M stuff up. can you imagine their coverage had this been labor’s mess? we’d have had days of it.

    & dutton has the thinness of skin/thickness of skull to call ‘media bias’.

  18. [2477

    Bank Transaction tax is unnecessary]

    The now-scrapped tax was not a tax on transactions. It was a tax on deposits. In fact it should be imposed on borrowers. The banks – and their borrowers – are direct beneficiaries of the Commonwealth’s guarantee of their liabilities. This both reduces bank funding costs and increases the ease of access to wholesale funding. The Commonwealth confers this advantage on the finance sector and accepts an absolutely enormous contingent liability as a result. That is, taxpayers who do not borrow are guaranteeing the stability of those who borrow. The guarantee should not exist. But since it does, it should be paid for. As a general rule a commercial guarantor will take a margin on any exposure. The Commonwealth should be collecting such a margin.

  19. [the australian and herald sun on-line editions gives NO coverage to Cambodian $55M stuff up. can you imagine their coverage had this been labor’s mess? we’d have had days of it.]

    We don’t have to imagine it. We got it with the “Timor” and “Malaysian” “solutions”.

  20. who will be the first witness as the Unions RC to claim to not read emails and to have not opened the attachment? or to claim to be ‘notorious’ in the union movement for not keeping good paperwork/accounts (being notorious for not doing something is a viable defence apparently)

  21. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@2417

    SHEA – How many 7/11 employees would actually belong to the union? Why are unions responsible for people who don’t join?

    You don’t always catch me harping for unions, but as a non-union employee, I think I’m rather thankful for the bargaining they’ve done in my workplace on behalf of every worker, union member or otherwise.

  22. Socrates at 2478

    “BTW interesting that both Dutton and Dyson Heydon do not read their email. What a coincidence!”

    Beginning to wonder if its a matter of can’t rather than don’t, either way it is incompetent.

    I note too that Dutton didn’t mention Fairfax a couple of months ago demanding Shorten’s resignation followed by a week-long attempt to detail his supposed crimes. Despite highlighting Abbott’s numerous failings, I don’t recall Fairfax calling for Abbott’s resignation.

  23. Yes BB – and in those instances we didn’t even pay ex-genocidal cadres a cent.

    the tele would have superimposed shorten and marles heads onto a Khmer Rouge group photo with Pol Pot by now. (The tele is also silent on this – but is doing big articles on the 15 year anniversary of the SKAF rapes – which I think fueled sydney’s anti-muslim xenophobia leading up to Tampa and to this day – hence the tele banging that drum again).

  24. Itep, I could ask which day’s hearing of which Duncan case (there have been so many lately) but since Isbester was a judgment of 5 of the HCA judges handed down on 10th June and since they said (4 of them jointly with Gageler J agreeing) that the principles apply to other kinds of decision and other kinds of decision-makers (though maybe on some slightly graduated scale), I don’t think it matters what Hayne J said in argument some time earlier.

  25. [Millennial
    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 1:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Darn #2438

    How did you calculate that?]


    As I said I am no expert, but my back of the envelope calculation was:

    Labor primary 38%
    Greens – 80% of primary 11% = 8.8%
    Palmer plus others – 42% of of primary 12% = 5%
    Total 51.8%

    I suspect the percentage of greens preferences, based on the last election, should have been a bit higher, perhaps 83%, which would lift the Labor 2pp to 52.1. I also believe the percentage at the next election for both greens and others, including Palmer, will be considerably higher than in 2013.

  26. The solution to all of the Liberal (sic) party problems is obvious. Renew the Q&A ban until Fairfax and BorderFarce are both moved to the ABC news and current affairs division. It worked so well the first time.

  27. Ullmann ABC News tonight, you are an unmitigated Dick HEAD… you look back a& pick,pick,pick & wet YOU are responsible for Not commenting at the time.

    You are part of the problem & never the solution.

    Stop tying to build yourself up by showing the faults of others!!

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