BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

Further improvement for Bill Shorten in this week’s aggregated poll readings, but some of the gloss has come off the sizeable lead Labor opened up last week on voting intention.

Another bad Newspoll this week has kept the pressure on Tony Abbott, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has taken some of the edge off the formidable lead Labor opened up last week, thanks to softer results from Roy Morgan and Essential Research. The 0.7% shift on two-party preferred results in five seats changing hands on the seat projection, including one in every state except Western Australia. Despite that, the leadership ratings record further improvement for Bill Shorten, since Newspoll is the only one of the three to have provided a new result. Shorten has now opened up a small but clear lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, and there has been a solid uptick in his net approval rating while Tony Abbott continues to flounder.

Further:

• Keep an eye on this post for all your Canning by-election news needs, including a fresh batch of snippets posted just now, and a fairly intensive account of yesterday’s slightly perplexing ReachTEL result.

• Tasmanian Labor Senator Lisa Singh has been dumped to a theoretically unwinnable fourth position on the party’s Senate ticket, behind incumbents Anne Urquhart of the Left and Helen Polley of the Right, and – most contentiously – non-incumbent John Short, state secretary of the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who is set to take third place. The elevation of Short ahead of a factionally unaligned woman front-bencher (Singh is shadow parliamentary secretary for the environment, climate change and water) has not been well-received, but Bill Shorten says he will not seek to have the decision overturned by the party’s national executive. It’s worth noting, albeit just barely, that Tasmania is the state where it is least implausible that below-the-line voters might trump the order of the party-mandated Senate ticket, owing to the smaller number of candidates and voters’ familiarity with choosing between party candidates under the Hare-Clark system in state elections. This was known to happen in Tasmania in the decade after the present Senate electoral system was introduced in 1949, but it hasn’t come anywhere near occurring since the above-the-line voting option was introduced in 1984. The below-the-line voting rate was 10.34% in Tasmania at the 2013 election, compared with 3.51% nationally.

• The Greens in South Australia have suffered the embarrassment of having candidate interview reports for its Senate preselection leaked to the media. The contents suggest that the front-runner for a preselection to be determined on September 6 is Robert Simms, an Adelaide City councillor who was rated as “highly recommended” owing to a “combination of experience, vision and political skills”. Bension Siebert of InDaily reports that the remaining contenders were ranked into two categories, the more flattering of which was headed “competent”. This included “former Greens state parliamentary candidate Matthew Carey, state Hindmarsh Greens branch convenor Rebecca Galdies, and former federal Greens candidate and environmental lawyer Ruth Beach”. Then came “needs further development”, which applied to Sam Taylor, media adviser to state upper house MP Mark Parnell, and Adelaide Hills councillor Lynton Vonow. The report was the work of a panel including Mark Parnell and three other figures in the state party.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that Jo Chapley, in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets, has “firmed as a Labor frontrunner to take on Christopher Pyne in Sturt”. However, the report also says that “other party figures are reluctant to push her for the Sturt pre-selection unless they can guarantee a lavish warchest from Labor’s national head office to run a genuine ‘marginal-seat-style’ campaign”.

• Steve Georganas has been confirmed as Labor candidate for the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until his defeat at the hands of current Liberal member Matt Williams in 2013, after the withdrawal of his sole preselection rival, Delia Brennan.

• My recent paywalled contributions to Crikey offer an account of the recent recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, and early impressions of the Western Australian federal redistribution (despite what the headline says).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,385 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. pedant

    [Nothing infuriates me more than when somebody stuffs up and then says to us: it’s your fault, it’s your misunderstanding.]

    Plodvlieg is a clown who has been promoted way beyond his competence due to ideological zeal.

    He also lied about it being a low level employee. It was the Victorian regional commander.

  2. Mexican,

    That’s what I’m trying to say. The economy can grow quite quickly in GDP (P) terms and still feel crap.

    The way GDP measures exports means that a quite strong GDP (P) is inevitable.

  3. victoria #1348
    Thanks, I suppose that’s probably the only comments we’ll get from Labor, seeing as Operation Fortitude has already been cancelled.

  4. RA:

    From the ABF website:

    [The Australian Border Force is responsible for the protection of Australia’s border in partnership with a range of intelligence, law enforcement and other agencies. Our mission is to protect our border and manage the movement of people and goods across it and, by doing so, we aim to make Australia safer and more prosperous.]

    Protecting Australia’s border by raiding brothels and stopping and searching pedestrians in Melbourne’s CBD. :/

  5. ABF seems more about fostering fear and alarm than anything else.

    [Australia adopts a whole-of-government approach to its national security. Australia is a free, prosperous and harmonious society. However, it is also these aspects of our society that terrorists and violent extremists seek to harm. The threat to Australia and Australians from terrorists and violent extremists is both real and growing.

    Similarly, geopolitical events, ranging from instability and conflict, through to global health crises, can lead to failed states or major armed conflict. These events create both direct and indirect security challenges to Australia, including fostering terrorism, population displacement and the irregular movement of people.

    Continuing to secure our borders, while enabling the seamless legitimate movement of people and goods, will be essential to ensuring Australia remains a prosperous society.]

    http://www.border.gov.au/australian-border-force-abf/protecting

  6. In the U.K they randomly check people on the street to see if they have overstayed their visas.

    Saw it on one of those border protection shows on the Tellie… and YES they did catch some overstayers.

  7. Watching the Drum

    O’Neill is such an idiot. He is appalled by the idea of an operation that will check people’s visas at random and is equally appalled that the operation is not going ahead because of the public backlash.

  8. Truffles may able his nobbling/wrecking of the NBN . This time for the bush.

    There’s that term “Rolls Royce ” again when he criticizes an aspect of Labor’s NBN. Fair enough to Truffles. We peasants only deserve clapped out old bombs. Besides as your mate HoJo said us po’ folk don’t drive much.

    [The NBN satellite Malcolm Turnbull never wanted prepares for liftoff

    In 34 days and counting, Australia is set to blast a satellite weighing as much as an elephant one-tenth of the way to the moon.

    Its name is Sky Muster, it’s worth about half-a-billion dollars, and there’s a slim – but very real – chance it could be blown to smithereens before it’s even left the Earth’s atmosphere.

    In Opposition, Turnbull called Labor’s satellite plan, first conceived in 2012 under then Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, a “Rolls-Royce” communications system.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/the-satellite-malcolm-turnbull-never-wanted-prepares-for-liftoff-20150825-gj7t3j.html

  9. O’Neill is what happens when you bring in an ignorant blockhead from overseas. We don’t need to import ignorant blockheads. We have Ray Hadley already.

  10. TBA

    I haven’t seen the numbers recently, but last time I saw official data the most likely person to be a visa overstayer was a middleaged, white, Brit.

    Now, do you think that’s who the ABF would have been targetting?

  11. My Brother in law and nephew are flying from Newcastle to Melbourne next weekend.
    I wonder if the plane will Land at Albury so the Black shirts can check passengers visas.

  12. Is this dinkum and for today?
    I ask cos it seems to have elicited zero attention.
    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m1 minute ago

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0) #auspol]

  13. TrueBlueAussie – the UK also had a simple parliamentary vote on same-sex marriage. You’re rather cherry-picking what you think Australia should emulate aren’t you?

  14. True Blue

    It is possible to station immigration officials at Dover and check people as they cross the channel but that is different than stopping people in the Melbourne CBD, very few if anyone would be walking around with their visa papers on them.

  15. Jimmy

    Yet I think its fair to say that the current state government is performing better than the Bracks government was going into 2002

  16. [In the U.K they randomly check people on the street to see if they have overstayed their visas.]

    Not if they’re obeying the law.

    [Before seeking to question someone, an IO [immigration officer] will need to have information in his possession which suggests that the person may be of immigration interest (that is there are doubts about that person’s leave status).]

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2013/08/02/comment-ukba-spot-checks-are-an-abuse-of-power-but-you-can-s

  17. The facists have a problem; Australians do not carry their papers with them and it would seem they are not keen on the idea.

  18. Those who overstay their visa in Australia?

    1. UK passport holders
    2. USA passport holders

    According to ABC drive time radio today.

  19. NSW trying some one-upmanship, but had to retract.

    [The Abbott government is under pressure to explain why the Australian Border Force ruined a complex police-led operation in Melbourne by implying people would be randomly stopped for visa checks, prompting a public backlash and forcing the event to be cancelled.

    It did not say if the Border Force planned to conduct similar operations in future, in Melbourne, Sydney or elsewhere.

    NSW Police Minister Troy Grant was asked if Sydney could expect to host such joint operations in future. He said the Border Force “already engages in NSW … so it’s just Victoria catching up”.

    After the operation was cancelled, Mr Grant’s office clarified that he was referring only to joint raids of premises such as brothels that have been carried out by NSW police and immigration officials for many years.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-border-force-farce-leaves-tony-abbott-under-fire-20150828-gjab4y.html#ixzz3k68PBrnX
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  20. Glenn Stevens said some fatuous things at the National “Reform” Summit. Bill Mitchell offers a perceptive rejoinder:

    If one doesn’t agree with this ‘free market, light regulation, growth oriented vision’ where governments aim to run fiscal surpluses but avoid discussing “when will we get back to surplus” and, instead, concentrate on getting “more growth”, then one is unreasonable.

    There is no mention as to whether the pursuit of fiscal surpluses itself is a ‘reasonable’ goal for any currency-issuing government to pursue, however, that pursuit is framed. It is just taken as gospel that it is a reasonable goal and that the public just needs that pursuit to be framed differently because then we will accept austerity as good.

    The unwillingness of these elites to engage in conversations about what a fiscal balance actually means is telling.

    They want to suppress a broader understanding of the monetary system and, certainly, do not want the general public to appreciate the capacities that a currency monopoly that most national governments possess have to advance public purpose and welfare.

    They know that if we all understood that the unemployment rate, for example, is a policy choice and that a currency-issuing government could virtually immediately eliminate it through clever public sector job creation, then the wage suppression function of mass joblessness would be lost and real wages would have to grow more in line with productivity.

    That would deprive the elites of the ‘gold mine’ where they can get workers to put in more “work effort” for less real wages growth – which has the consequence of redistributing the growing pie increasingly towards profits.

    After all, the financial markets, which largely do nothing productive to advance societal well-being, need the largesse redistributed through real wage suppression, for their gambling chips!

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31687

  21. Bill Mitchell appears ignorance of the role financial markets play.

    Their primary role is to allow capital to move around, this enables investors and business or an asset to come together.

    Sure there is a speculative element and its partly rigged but only in the sense that its rigged towards the bigger players.

  22. Re Operation Fortitude: Anyone being asked to “show their papers” should say they’ll only to do after Tony Abbott shows his…

  23. Re Border Farce, it reminded me of this well known Voltaire quote:

    [I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one: ‘O Lord make my enemies ridiculous.’ And God granted it.]

  24. [Dunkley is most definitely winnable. It is only held with a 5.5% margin, which is not far above La Trobe which is held by 4%. Labor is putting a lot of time, money and effort into Dunkley this time around.]

    Ye-es, but it’s also been a remarkably un-swingy seat. Apart from 2004, the Lib PV has varied by less than 3% in the last 20 years.

    But as I say, Abbott keeps at it like this and it will fall, no worries.

  25. confessions@959

    What if you’re an Australian citizen and are stopped? I don’t have a visa because I was born here. How would I prove my citizenship without having to carry around a birth certificate or passport?

    Is this really the country we’re becoming?!

    Write to your local Federal MP:

    [ Dear Mr Joyce

    I am very concerned about the reported intention of the Border Force to stop people at random and ask to see their visas.

    I am an Australian citizen, born in Brisbane Qld, and I do not normally carry my passport. I would normally carry my drivers licence, but I believe that there is no reason why I should be required to.

    I regard this as a very unwelcome invasion of not just my rights, but those of other citizens of Australia, and indeed visitors to our shores from NZ, USA, Europe, and elsewhere.

    This is a fascist development. Have we really got to the stage of the blackshirts demanding papers of everyone who crosses their path?

    I hope that you can make your coalition partners see sense.

    I look forward to your response.

    Yours Sincerely ]

  26. Guytaur@1040

    [@nickrirving: I’m a historian of protest and this may have just become the most effective protest I’ve ever seen. #BorderFarce https://t.co/ORXyVA6Zz3%5D

    This post comes long after your posting of this tweet, but I am very impressed with the protest in Melbourne today. I think it is up there with the stopping of the Mosley fascists in the East End of London in 1936: The Mosley fascists march on the East End

    I was really busy today, and only caught up with the news after 7pm. I was gobsmacked, and so glad to be able to go to Poll Bludger and see the day as it unfolded – the last time something like this happened in Oz was whe de Groot cut the ribbon to open the Sydney Harbour Bridge before Jack Lang could do it, in 1932.

    I thought Abbott had the capacity to do something like this, but thought that saner heads in the Liberal party would prevent it.

    Thank dog for the Australian people, who really do know when it is time to take the piss, and also do a very serious and effective protest.

  27. I guess “I don’t read me emails either, your Worship” is all these Trade Union officials need to say from now on.

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