ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new poll from ReachTEL is their third in a month to show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that a ReachTEL poll on the Seven Network records Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, which is unchanged on ReachTEL polls conducted on both July 30 and August 6. Seven also reported that Bill Shorten was favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister by 55-45 among men, compared with 56.0-44.0 in the previous ReachTEL poll, and 61-39 among women, effectively unchanged on the last poll’s result of 60.8-39.2. That appears to be all the information Seven provided, but hopefully the ReachTEL site will have full results soon.

UPDATE: Full results here. The primary votes are 40.3% for the Coalition (down 0.3%), 37.5% for Labor (down 0.5%), 13.4% for the Greens (up 0.5%) and 1.3% for Palmer United (down 0.1%), with the bracketed comparisons referring to the July 30 poll for Seven rather than the August 6 one for Fairfax.

The poll provides more evidence of an improvement in Bill Shorten’s standing, his good-plus-very good rating up from 19.6% to 23.4%, with poor-plus-very poor down from 45.9% to to 44.0%. Tony Abbott’s numbers are little changed at 26.0% (down 0.8%) and 53.8% (up 0.8%). Bill Shorten’s overall lead as preferred prime minister is 57.9-42.1, up from 55.1-44.9.

A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull on 43.5%, Julie Bishop on 22.8%, Tony Abbott on 21.4% and Scott Morrison on 12.4%. The last such question by ReachTEL was in its April 23 poll, but the results are not comparable as Joe Hockey has been dropped from the options list and replaced by Scott Morrison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,496 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [If it is a secret one wonders why he makes such a public comment on it. Don’t you just stamp it confidential without such hyperbolic description? And if it is so explosive, why has nothing been done about it for 9 months?”]
    The time is not right yet. It will become more appropriate once an election date is set.

  2. GG

    [Does anyone else remember Dutton’s outrage over News trying to bring the previous Labor Government down? Neither can I.]

    He thought News dressing up Labor politicians in Nazi uniforms was a compliment.

  3. [Imagine if 7-11 employees had unions!]

    Where was the Shoppies union in all of the 7-11 business – seemingly too busy playing right wing power politics in the ALP and not enough time looking after the rights of those they should be recruiting and protecting.

  4. beemer

    Yes, that reticence is a large part of why we don’t think they’ll be cutting just yet.

    Of course, as the new regulations bite and the amount of investor credit flowing aroudn the market falls, house prices will have a lot of pressure taken out of them and suddenly the strongest part of the economy doesn’t look as strong any more….

  5. Best tack ALP can take is the “they can give it out but they can’t take it”

    Glass jaws are not a quality Australian culture favours

  6. Whilst I’d like to blame the Shoppies Union for not looking after the 7-11 employees the reality is that doing so is an extremely hard task and deliberately made even harder by the COALition with their restrictions on access to work sites for union investigators.
    Franchise sites, in their various forms, are not easily accessed by unions because the individual franchisee, not the overarching company, can contract out it’s own set of workers without the parent company officially being involved and unless there is a strong worker the chances of union involvement is minimised down to a near zero level.
    There have been cases where union investigators have covertly interviewed workers, established abuses of those workers, those abuses have been verified yet the unionists face legal penalties for illegally entering the work site.

  7. Sabra Lane on 7:30 ought to be congratulated for keeping her cool when she was interviewing Peter Dutton last night. Not even a pretence of wanting to answer a question. He is seriously the great mystery of Australian politics – how someone of obviously limited political skills and brain power should have got so far.

  8. Shea

    Please, how hard is it too walk into a 7-11 store, if the advocate could do it then why couldn’t the union.

    The excuses offered by unions is a large part of why so many Australians don’t join as they see unions as lazy and selective on what they do yet charge large fees.

  9. mexicanbeemer@2405

    Sachin

    Maybe they did but the union was unable or unwilling to do anything, unions can be lazy.

    The relevant union was probably SDA and they would have had to join.

    SDA is not noted for being militant or pro-active.

  10. [Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 11:54 am | PERMALINK
    2364
    mexicanbeemer

    If I had to say anything positive about this government

    -The medical research fund

    Let’s wait and see the details & practice of that non-peer reviewed scheme, shall we.

    My bet is that it will be nothing more than a huge slush fund for the government to curry favour with the spivocracy, and the end result will be that we throw away billions and our solid reputation for genuinely useful medical research will go down the toilet.]

    I have always believed that was just a stunt to placate the plebs over the multi billion dollar cut to health and the attacks on Medicare.

  11. Thanks TPOF and Itep. Thanks to TPOF in particular for wading though Heydon’s looooong self-justification – saved me the pain.

    But I think His Commish-ship should have taken account of the fact that while binding “ratios” (yes pedant, “rationes”) can be found in cases and must be followed if they’re from a higher court, a ratio is often expressed in general language and it’s the way that it’s been applied to the facts of several cases that fleshes it out (think “reasonable foreseeability” and the way that the HCA keeps saying negligence must be decided on a “case by case” basis.

    And in Isbister, having said all that general stuff about the strictness varing from case to case, the Court still applied the rule extremely strictly to a dog-licensing case. I would have thought Ms Hughes’s position was almost ok, but they said she should have disqualified herself. [For those who don’t have the ALJR which Heydon and TPOF cited lying on the coffee table, Isbister is at http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2015/20.html%5D

    With apologies to Ms Isbister and other dog-lovers, I kinda think that a case involving possible findings of allegedly-widespread corrupt conduct in the building and other industries would attract an even-stricter application of the test than a case about dog-licensing. As I also think Heydon’s position was almost ok, the case-by-case application of the test would suggest he’s a goner if the case is taken to the HCA.

  12. Amazing, calling a press conference to tell us that something not legislated, wont be.

    Gosh this government is a ball of activity.

  13. Maybe the shoppies union wasn’t interested in 7-11 stores because the workers aren’t catholic or white and each store employs a handful of people

  14. Raising the debt level is probably all part of the grand masterplan, so that it’ll get to a stage where it is so bad the government will be forced to face up to the problem.

    Then of course it will be the fault of the Senate, the ALP and the unions. The idea will be too put so much pressure on the ALP and the Senate that they will be forced to pass all the deeply unpopular measures that this government is ideologically welded to.

    Of course they couldn’t give a flying fark about the effect of this on the average Australian.(i/)

  15. [Unions can take that attitude but again that is an excuse for doing nothing.]

    You’re assuming they did nothing.

    Retail (and hospitality) workers are notoriously hard to recruit. I say this as a past Qld LHMU shop floor delegate.

  16. Mex 2425

    Not sure of the efficacy of the statement but I heard Dave Oliver yesterday saying the 7/11 issue would not have occured if Unions were allowed to undertake spot checks without warning on businesses & their wage books as they had been able to do in the past.

  17. LU

    Yes I am presuming that based on the 4 corners story appears to have been broken by an advocate, it is possible that he was from or indirectly associated with the union, that kind of thing wasn’t disclosed.

  18. BK at 2415

    These numbers along with The Kouk’s gross debt numbers today are terrible by any metric. Amazing though that even in today’s Essential poll that most folk polled still think the LNP are still best at managing the economy. More work needs to be done to break open this myth.

  19. mexicanbeemer@2437

    LU

    Yes I am presuming that based on the 4 corners story appears to have been broken by an advocate, it is possible that he was from or indirectly associated with the union, that kind of thing wasn’t disclosed.

    The program described him as a “consumer advocate”.

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