ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new poll from ReachTEL is their third in a month to show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that a ReachTEL poll on the Seven Network records Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, which is unchanged on ReachTEL polls conducted on both July 30 and August 6. Seven also reported that Bill Shorten was favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister by 55-45 among men, compared with 56.0-44.0 in the previous ReachTEL poll, and 61-39 among women, effectively unchanged on the last poll’s result of 60.8-39.2. That appears to be all the information Seven provided, but hopefully the ReachTEL site will have full results soon.

UPDATE: Full results here. The primary votes are 40.3% for the Coalition (down 0.3%), 37.5% for Labor (down 0.5%), 13.4% for the Greens (up 0.5%) and 1.3% for Palmer United (down 0.1%), with the bracketed comparisons referring to the July 30 poll for Seven rather than the August 6 one for Fairfax.

The poll provides more evidence of an improvement in Bill Shorten’s standing, his good-plus-very good rating up from 19.6% to 23.4%, with poor-plus-very poor down from 45.9% to to 44.0%. Tony Abbott’s numbers are little changed at 26.0% (down 0.8%) and 53.8% (up 0.8%). Bill Shorten’s overall lead as preferred prime minister is 57.9-42.1, up from 55.1-44.9.

A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull on 43.5%, Julie Bishop on 22.8%, Tony Abbott on 21.4% and Scott Morrison on 12.4%. The last such question by ReachTEL was in its April 23 poll, but the results are not comparable as Joe Hockey has been dropped from the options list and replaced by Scott Morrison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,496 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 50
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  1. NSW trying some one-upmanship, but had to retract.

    [The Abbott government is under pressure to explain why the Australian Border Force ruined a complex police-led operation in Melbourne by implying people would be randomly stopped for visa checks, prompting a public backlash and forcing the event to be cancelled.
    …

    It did not say if the Border Force planned to conduct similar operations in future, in Melbourne, Sydney or elsewhere.

    NSW Police Minister Troy Grant was asked if Sydney could expect to host such joint operations in future. He said the Border Force “already engages in NSW … so it’s just Victoria catching up”.

    After the operation was cancelled, Mr Grant’s office clarified that he was referring only to joint raids of premises such as brothels that have been carried out by NSW police and immigration officials for many years.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-border-force-farce-leaves-tony-abbott-under-fire-20150828-gjab4y.html#ixzz3k68PBrnX

  2. Those who overstay their visa in Australia?
    1. UK passport holders
    2. USA passport holders
    According to ABC drive time radio today.

  3. [For the Abbott government, which has lately elevated “community safety” to holy trinity status along with jobs and growth, the overreach of the Australian Border Force’s adolescent excursion into police-state theatrics, could be seen as the natural extension of Coalition rhetoric.

    Government insiders in unrelated portfolios were aghast on Friday amid suspicions of a “gung ho” culture fostered among immigration and border staff by their ex-detective minister, Peter Dutton.

    Whether that’s fair or not is hard to say. One however, noted the hamfisted operation was not the kind of thing that would have happened under Scott Morrison, who despite his hardline reputation, had kept his officials on a tight leash, and remained keenly attuned to the politics of his beat.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/border-force-police-action-operation-fortitude-a-case-of-uniformed-insanity-20150828-gja7i5.html#ixzz3k69PqZWm
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  4. [Those who overstay their visa in Australia?
    1. UK passport holders
    2. USA passport holders
    According to ABC drive time radio today.]

    I remember reading that a few years ago now on the Immigration Dept website. Obviously not much has changed since then.

  5. [One however, noted the hamfisted operation was not the kind of thing that would have happened under Scott Morrison, who despite his hardline reputation, had kept his officials on a tight leash, and remained keenly attuned to the politics of his beat.]

    Not buying this. Why is there this tendency to report Morrison as being some sort of political mastermind?

  6. So if 55-45 of men prefer Bill Shorten to Tony Abbott,and 61-39 of women prefer Bill Shorten to Tony Abbott, would that mean the overall PPM ratings would be about 58-42 to Bill Shorten?

  8. William:

    Btw I thought your article in today’s Crikey was interesting. I can’t wait until the election night for Canning voters!

  11. [Why is there this tendency to report Morrison as being some sort of political mastermind?]

    Because it’s finally dawning that he’s the heir apparent? MT has always been offered as the likely Abbott replacement, but that’s looking less and less likely, even more so since the leadership coup that went nowhere.

  14. [One however, noted the hamfisted operation was not the kind of thing that would have happened under Scott Morrison, who despite his hardline reputation, had kept his officials on a tight leash, and remained keenly attuned to the politics of his beat.

    Not buying this. Why is there this tendency to report Morrison as being some sort of political mastermind?]

    Nup, I don’t buy it either.
    Morrissons media confected reputation for efficiemcy is en

  19. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m2 minutes ago

    #ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader (L/NP Voters): Abbott 45.4 (+2.9) Turnbull 24.6 (0.0) Bishop 16.2 (-3.4) #auspol

    So they sticking with Abbott!

  20. I suggest there’s a gap between Peter Dutton-style incompetent fascist moron and “political mastermind” into which Scott Morrison, and pretty much any other politician, would fall.

  21. Glenn Stevens said some fatuous things at the National “Reform” Summit. Bill Mitchell offers a perceptive rejoinder:

    If one doesn’t agree with this ‘free market, light regulation, growth oriented vision’ where governments aim to run fiscal surpluses but avoid discussing “when will we get back to surplus” and, instead, concentrate on getting “more growth”, then one is unreasonable.

    There is no mention as to whether the pursuit of fiscal surpluses itself is a ‘reasonable’ goal for any currency-issuing government to pursue, however, that pursuit is framed. It is just taken as gospel that it is a reasonable goal and that the public just needs that pursuit to be framed differently because then we will accept austerity as good.

    The unwillingness of these elites to engage in conversations about what a fiscal balance actually means is telling.

    They want to suppress a broader understanding of the monetary system and, certainly, do not want the general public to appreciate the capacities that a currency monopoly that most national governments possess have to advance public purpose and welfare.

    They know that if we all understood that the unemployment rate, for example, is a policy choice and that a currency-issuing government could virtually immediately eliminate it through clever public sector job creation, then the wage suppression function of mass joblessness would be lost and real wages would have to grow more in line with productivity.

    That would deprive the elites of the ‘gold mine’ where they can get workers to put in more “work effort” for less real wages growth – which has the consequence of redistributing the growing pie increasingly towards profits.

    After all, the financial markets, which largely do nothing productive to advance societal well-being, need the largesse redistributed through real wage suppression, for their gambling chips!

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31687

  23. Nicholas

    I see you have re-posted that ignorant rubbish from Mitchell.

    His comments indicate to me that he doesn’t really know what he is talking about, for example his comments on the financial markets show that he hasn’t got his head around what there role is.

    The role is to bring savers of funds and the users of funds together to then produce something which hopefully is productive.

    Not sure what elites he says are not serious about talking about the budget, the people at the forum are not the elites, they were a collection of senior public servants, policy advocates and senior business people.

  24. William #20

    [I suggest there’s a gap between Peter Dutton-style incompetent fascist moron and “political mastermind” into which Scott Morrison, and pretty much any other politician, would fall.]

    Unless your name is Joe Hockey.

  26. It’s nice that the majority of the dwindling numbers of Liberal voters still want Tony Abbott – No wonder they live in an echo chamber!!

  28. Tony Windsor retweeted
    Fiona Katauskas ‏@FionaKatauskas 3h3 hours ago

    BREAKING: IT”S ALL THE PRESS RELEASE’S FAULT! “@beneltham: You don’t say ”

  29. Re Operation Fortitude: Anyone being asked to “show their papers” should say they’ll only to do after Tony Abbott shows his…

  30. Scott “let’s get a political advantage by demonising drowned AS” Morrison as next in line for the LNP leadership?

    They’ve got to have rocks in their heads.

    Oh, wait . . .

  32. Bahaha:

    Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 8m8 minutes ago Werris Creek, New South Wales

    It would be a good idea if Border Force gathered some intelligence

  34. Lol!
    check out how many retweets

    [James Massola
    James Massola – Verified account ‏@jamesmassola

    A Liberal texts me: “We are cleaning up our self-inflicted f@@k-ups much faster now. Normally that would have taken a week! High five!”
    9:57 PM – 27 Aug 2015
    476 RETWEETS344 FAVORITES]

  35. Mr C&D demographic ‏@MrCsandDs 2h2 hours ago

    Peter Dutton has refused an interview with the ABC stating “it’s an operational matter”. Not a joke. He actually said that.
    #duttmentum

    lol

  36. And this earlier today from Herald Sun journo

    [Rob Harris
    Rob Harris – Verified account ‏@rharris334

    Melbourne seems to have out Melbourned itself.
    9:45 PM – 27 Aug 2015
    51 RETWEETS76 FAVORITES]

  37. Obviously there have been a lot of boats slip through which we haven’t been told about and now they need to find the passengers on land..

  38. The weekly security announcement is going well. Last week; we are going to invade Syria (to wedge labor); this week; we are going to make those Melbourne people “who don’t us” show their papers.

  39. [A Liberal texts me: “We are cleaning up our self-inflicted f@@k-ups much faster now. Normally that would have taken a week! High five!”]

    Wonder if that was Ewen Jones. 😀

  42. Fess @ 4

    [Those who overstay their visa in Australia?
    1. UK passport holders
    2. USA passport holders
    According to ABC drive time radio today.]

    That has been the case for years and years. But its very misleading, because the numbers of visitors from the USA and the UK far exceeds visitors from every other country.

    It’s a bit like buying a lottery ticket in Lottery B because there are twice as many prizes as Lottery A, while ignoring the fact that there are fifty times more tickets sold for Lottery B.

  43. [Peter Dutton has refused an interview with the ABC stating “it’s an operational matter”. Not a joke. He actually said that.
    #duttmentum]
    Er, not any more Mr Potato Head!

  46. BK @ 43

    So the Minister refuses to be accountable for the conduct of the organisations he is responsible for. Standard operating procedure for this cluster!@# of a government.

  50. [Laura Tingle
    Laura Tingle – Verified account ‏@latingle

    Look at it this way… we all needed a good laugh this week #BorderForce
    10:08 PM – 27 Aug 2015
    153 RETWEETS190 FAVORITES]

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