Morgan has released its regular monthly SMS polling of state voting intention, which will be getting dedicated posts in future. The poll was conducted from Saturday to Monday, and the results for each of the states are summarised in turn:
New South Wales. The Coalition leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition, 25% for Labor and 17.5% for the Greens. This is the fifth Morgan poll since the March election, and no other pollsters have reported in this time. Labor’s result is the worst of the five, being 3.5% down on the last poll at the start of August, but it’s only made a one-point difference on two-party because it’s matched by a two-point increase for the Greens.
Victoria. Labor leads 57-43, after successive Morgan polls in late May, late July and early August had it at 56.5-43.5. This stability conceals steady movement away from the major parties on the primary vote, with Labor down 4.5% since the May poll to 39%, and the Coalition down 3% to 35.5%. The Greens have increased over each of the four polls from 12.5% to 16.5%. The Victorian component of the poll had a sample of 1123. It is the eighth such poll since the election, and no other pollsters have reported in this time (UPDATE: I beg your pardon, there was this from Newspoll with thanks to Leroy Lynch).
Queensland. Labor is credited with a lead of 52-48, up from 51-49 in the early August poll, from primary votes of 38.5% for Labor (up 2.5%), 41.5% for the Liberal National Party (up 0.5%) and 12% for the Greens (down one). The two-party preferred appears to be based on previous election preferences, which is a very different approach from that taken by Galaxy, which combines preferences from the last three elections. Galaxy’s most recent poll of a fortnight ago thereby agreed Morgan’s two-party result, but did so on the basis of better primary vote numbers for Labor (40% to 39% for the LNP). Galaxy had a sample of 800, while Morgan’s latest was 877.
Western Australia. The major parties are tied on 50-50, after Labor led 51.5-48.5 in the early August poll, from primary votes of 42% for the Liberals and Nationals (up two), 34% for Labor (up one) and 15% for the Greens (down two from a particularly strong result last time). The only pollsters to report from Western Australia since the election have been Morgan and Newspoll, the latter of which had Labor leading 52-48 in its quarterly surveys for January-March and April-June. Morgan’s Western Australian samples are around 600.
South Australia. Very little change on the early August poll, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on two-party (down from 51-49) from primary votes of 39.5% for the Coalition (steady), 33.5% for Labor (down half) and 14% for the Greens (steady). The first four Morgan polls this year, from January through to April, gave Labor leads of between 51-49 and 54-46, whereas the four since have all been with 1% either way of 50-50. Morgan’s polling this term has differed sharply from Newspoll’s in that the latter has had others on 21% or 22%, whereas the last eight Morgan results have ranged from 10% to 13%. The April-June Newspoll was much stronger for Labor on two-party preferred, crediting them with a lead of 54-46. Morgan’s South Australian polls have samples of around 600.
Tasmania. Morgan’s Tasmanian results come from samples of between 300 to 400, and have consistently been weaker of the Liberals than seems plausible. The latest result has them down 6% to 38%, with Labor up 4.5% to 35.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 21.5%.