Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll by Galaxy lands well in line with the broader trend in pointing to a formidable swing of 8% to Labor.

Today’s Sunday Mail in Queensland publishes federal voting intention figures from the Galaxy poll that produced the state results you can read about in the post immediately below this one. The federal results are broadly similar to the state ones, and likewise in alignment with the current Queensland reading of BludgerTrack, in crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, which represents an 8% swing compared with the 2013 election result. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (compared with 45.7% in 2013), 37% for Labor (29.8%), 10% for the Greens (6.2%) and 3% for Palmer United (11.0%). The poll also provides a second encouraging personal result for Bill Shorten following his improved rating in last weekend’s Ipsos poll, with 40% rating him the federal leader with the “best plan for Queensland” compared with 34% for Tony Abbott – a question that produced a 42-40 split in favour of Abbott when last posed in the wake of the budget in May. The poll had a sample of 800 respondents, and was presumably conducted late in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,060 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  1. Does the fact that the poll was done at both the state and federal level at the same time influence the results? I would expect that asking somebody about both at the same time would tend to make them more likely to answer the same for both.

  2. Would this indicate that most of that evaporating Palmer vote has gone straight to Labor, or is it a case of “shifting windows”? Or is that just imposible to determine?

  3. [Would this indicate that most of that evaporating Palmer vote has gone straight to Labor, or is it a case of “shifting windows”? Or is that just imposible to determine?]
    Not a shifting window. Palmer and his populist position is difficult to place on a left-right spectrum. Note an increase also in the Greens.
    I think there has always been a significant inherent populist/non major political party section in the voter population which can be captured by the right person at the right time. Whilst it is probably a mildly right wing conservative group, it is more attracted to a populist/independent anti-establishment line rather than a particular spot in the political spectrum. Look at the rise and fall of Palmer, Pauline Hanson and one Nation, Joh BP and his Nationals, Peter Beattie and his large Labor majorities, evergreen independent Bob Katter.

    It looks like the big swing is on in Queensland and I don’t see any hope of Abbott resisting it unless Shorten is shown covered in NSW origin jersey and paint.

  4. Re Canning and Solar Power

    (I posted the link below on the Canning thread a few days ago)

    [While Tony Abbott was in South Australia assuring the state’s Party faithful that his 2030 emissions target was both economically and environmentally responsible, an interesting thing was happening over in the nation’s west. In the Western Australian electorate of Canning – a marginal seat incorporating south-east metropolitan Perth and rural areas in the east and south – the Australian Solar Council launched its latest campaign, on the weekend, urging constituents to “vote solar” in the upcoming by-election.

    The ASC’s plan is to capitalise on the fact that, according to council analysis, 50 per cent of Canning homes have either solar PV or solar hot water on their roofs.]

  5. Just been away for a glorious week in Fiji (youse really should go there) – balmy days, glorious dawns, spectacular sunsets, snorkeling, sleeping, reading books, doing absolutely nothing (and not feeling guilty about it), coral reefs, giant manta rays doing loop-the-lopps right next to you, fantastic staff, a truly inspirational polyglot mix of all the nations’ young (and young at heart).

    And absolutely no news from Australia, especially where Abbott was concerned. It kinda puts The Wrecker’s Way into perspective: he’s a pimple on a pumpkin.

    I also won the International Coconut Chucking Test, on behalf of Australia beating out France, Germany, Israel, New zealand, England, Wales, Canada, America, Denmark and Italy with a masterful exercise of my famous “Round The Corner Lob” (it’s all in the wrist), leading these young whippersnappers to have a new-found respect for both their elders and Aussies-In-General.

    Cunningly, I used the “Reverse Sledge”… barracking for everyone else, encouraging excellence in Coconut Chucking, even selflessly showing them my technique… they were all so touched they couldn’t bring themselves to defeat such a nice guy. Works every time.

    When I returned, a little old lady from Queensland in the airport shuttle van, down to see her rellies in Sydney, started telling me about some things that had been going on with Abbott during the past week. She was 100% spot-on, as I have since found from my catch-up reading.

    It’s always nice to know that despite my not being here to write stinging diatribes against the Coalition, they’ve stuck to form and done the damage all by themselves anyway. It’s a relief to know I can go away for a week and Abbott will pick up the ball for me anyway, and run with it.

    The Reality TV Show continues unabated: biased judges (so biased they don’t know they’re biased (according to Ackland, Heydon’s own prediction of how he would behave), flags flying with ex-SAS Liberal candidates accusing Labor on non-existent vilification of them, readings of the Riot Act to Ministers (who then riot anyway), bad viewer-voting by way of terrible polls, and otherwise nothing happening policy-wize.

    All that strutting, all those flags, the slogans and the intimidation, the kangaroo courts, the lies and the sledging for nothing. We’ve had to put up with this jerk for two years and he’s accomplished absolutely eff-all for all the money and misery. He’s stuffed-up this job just like he’s stuffed up everything else he’s ever done or been given responsibility for: the inveterate loser that he is, and always will be.

    The journos have found their spines, and even they are saying it’s a matter of “when”, not “if”. Business is in despair (that is if they aren’t digging holes or burning fossil fuels). The people are openly heckling and cat-calling this failure of a man. He’s still the joke he was born to be, unable to get anywhere without a Dyson Heydon to recommend him for a scholarship, a Sir Tristan Antico to get him a job where he caused an “all-out” strike within weeks, a Rupert Murdoch to promote him and puff him up into a hero, a General (or a Lieutenant in a pinch) to shed some jingoistic light on him, the better to bask in its reflection.

    What we need now is for someone in the Libs to do the right thing, step up and take the cretin on. Only then is there even a small chance that the process of rot and wrecking might be slowed.

    Anyone got the guts?

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    George Brandis is going to have a third crack at getting his increased “divorce tax” through the Senate.
    Hastie is bringing out the “best” in th4 Liberals.
    It would appear that Mark Latham has now completed his loss of the plot.
    Born to rule?
    Are there ulterior motives in the planned $20m upgrade to Parliament House surveillance security?
    Paul Malone says Abbott shouldn’t be campaigning on jobs and growth.
    A bit of fun here with the “Snoutie Awards”.
    Bob Ellis has gathered himself up to write of the 38 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    The Victorian Liberals want to “move on” and stop the public blame game.
    Peter Wicks explains the botched TURC smear job on Julia Gillard.,8085

  7. [So now it’s just the NSW bogan belt that’s holding out …

    We’ll soon see whether a whiff of Abbott inspired unemployment changes their view.]
    If this incident is widely reported as an example of Abbott’s vision of the future, even the thickest of coal voters will abandon them.

    [Casual staff at Capalaba Sports Club given 72 hours to sign contracts that eliminated all penalty rates]
    [A BRISBANE company has sacked workers who have refused to sign last-minute contracts that cut all penalty rates. ]

    [Hospitality X enforced the new industrial agreement allowing Capalaba Sports Club general manager Nigel de Ryck to state “no staff were sacked by the club”.

    “The club puts the highest value on its employees’ welfare and has confirmed that all of Hospitality X’s workers are on contracts that are fair and meet all relevant regulations,” Mr de Ryck said.]

    [Capalaba Sports Club told a meeting of casual staff in May that they would be shifted to an “external workforce management company” called Hospitality X.

    The company, based in Melbourne, provided staff with a new industrial agreement stripping all penalty rate entitlements – staff were given just 72 hours to read and agree to the terms or risk losing their jobs.]
    Note the gutless manipulation by management of a community organisation employer.

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Stephen Koukoulas advises people to be careful of what they wish for in the Canning by-election.
    The Senate’s Nauru inquiry could be our Abu Ghraib moment.
    Peter FitzSimons and his weekly column.
    Transfield’s relationship with offshore processing is losing them their investors.
    Charles Waterstreet gets plenty off his chest in this entertaining contribution.

  9. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Andrew Dyson has Abbott on the Coaler Coaster.

    A lovely one from Ron Tandberg!

    John Spooner disinters B A Santamaria.

    Cruel work from John Shakespeare.

    Pat Campbell has some fun with George’s metadata.

    Alan Moir with the forlorn hope of Joe Hockey.

  10. “@edhusicMP: On @ABCNews24 #WeekendBreakfast at 8.10am with @abcAndrewG and @MiriamCorowa talking all things #auspol”

  11. I didn’t know Tony had said this yesterday.

    [‏@ABCNews24 · 20 hours ago
    PM Tony Abbott: Australian coal is much better for the environment than the dirty alternative from another country ]

  12. [Kellie Mayo ‏@KelMayo 11h11 hours ago
    Great #insiders tmrw: guest @JulieBishopMP + panel @KarenMMiddleton @MikeSeccombe & GHenderson #auspoI 9am @ABCTV ]

    Looks riveting!

  13. I’m surprised he hasn’t said the coal they dig out of the ground now is cleaner than the coal they dug out of the ground under Labor

    or has he?

  14. “@ABCNews24: Ed Husic: We will remain critical of the Royal Commission into Trade Unions #turc #DysonHeydon #auspol”

    “@ABCNews24: Ed Husic: We’ve said we’ve got zero tolerance on any criminal activity by employers or unions #turc #DysonHeydon #auspol”

    “@ABCNews24: Ed Husic: We have asked for a formal briefing on the request for Australian bombing raids in #Syria #auspol #Daesh”

  15. What a circus south of the border

    [State Opposition Leader Matthew Guy has moved to quell ongoing fury over the Victorian Liberals’ financial scandal, urging members not to play the “blame game” or allow the party to be defined by the multimillion-dollar fraud.
    Days after Spring Street was rocked by news that former Liberal state director Damien Mantach had siphoned at least $1.5 million from the Victorian branch, Mr Guy has privately told his party it had to move on – without embarking on a witch hunt to single out who was most responsible.
    The Opposition Leader made his comments during an often heated three-hour crisis meeting with the rank-and-file at Liberal Party headquarters on Friday night, where tensions flared over the fact that Mr Mantach was able to spend four years embezzling money for his personal use without anyone noticing.
    And by Saturday, the financial scandal had deepened, with political donors expressing anger at the Liberals’ handling of the issue, and some senior figures calling on party elder David Kemp – who was president at the time Mr Mantach was hired by the Victorian branch – to provide an explanation of the recruitment process.

    Read more:
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  16. Bushfire of the Tropics,

    Welcome back to the Big Brother house. I was wondering where the BB excoriation of Dyson was this last week, but it seems you had better things to do than commentate on the latest ‘highlights’. Much more productive too I suspect.

  17. Morning all. BB i was interested in this comment:
    [And absolutely no news from Australia, especially where Abbott was concerned. It kinda puts The Wrecker’s Way into perspective: he’s a pimple on a pumpkin.]
    You are dead right. There is no news to report. I have commented myself lately that policy development in the Abbott government has come to s grinding halt. There is not even talk about new policy ideas, whether social or economic. They are in electoral survival mode already, with another full year to go.

    Gillard complained that she could not get clean air to mount a policy debate on the carbon tax etc. But Abbott does not even try. He hardly ever holds press conferences, just photo ops with a few short words. Then the minders usher him out. Other ministers respond to scandals, defend Bishop or Heydon, but new policy ideas? Nope. They have ceased to govern, with a third of their term still to go.

    Abbott’s government is not only the least competent in my lifetime, but the laziest.

  18. sceptic

    Thanks. Almost unbelievable unless seen.

    I saw a tweet suggesting that Hastie is dissing solar energy. If true, no wonder Tony wants him as his new bestie.

  19. Paul Kelly has stated just now that there is no doubt at all that we will be bombing in Syria.

    Says that Abbott requested the Americans to request Australia to bomb Syria.

    Says there is a domestic political side to this activity.

    Says that Abbott wants to use the issue to wedge Labor on domestic politics.

    Does not bat an eyelid at the new normal: we bomb a country to do a wedge.

    So much for

  20. [I saw a tweet suggesting that Hastie is dissing solar energy. ]

    That’s the problem with importing an outsider as the candidate. He wouldn’t be aware that the Barnett govt’s cuts to solar rebates for households was very unpopular with voters.

  21. PvO and Kelly going flat out to keep the Hastie’s ChopperGate going.

    They do not want to talk about the maniac in the room.

  22. confessions

    There were no smears. It was straight reporting of a military investigation into possible war crimes by Australian troops under Hastie’s direct command.

  23. Pompous Paul Kelly is outing Abbott’s militaristic gambit.

    [@35bobjones: #AustralianAgenda @vanOnselenP Paul Kelly just said he has no doubt that @TonyAbbottMHR orchestrated Syria involvement with USA]

  24. [It was straight reporting of a military investigation into possible war crimes by Australian troops under Hastie’s direct command.]

    And quite legitimate that it is reported given Hastie is shoving his military career down voters’ throats.

  25. In terms of news about Abbott, Abbott’s basic problem is that dismantling Government programs, except for those that support crony capitalists and rural socialists, leaves him with symbolic issues to do.

    As if our six jets bombing Syria will make a skerrick of substantive difference to the eventual regional outcomes in the ME!

    This is why we are talking about Hastie as a military symbol and not about the policies that Hastie espouses.

  26. Mutilating hands from dead bodies is Frankenstein horror theme.

    Yet this Captain led his troops to a culture that thought that was ok.

  27. One suggestion on Canning – as well as solar power, Abbott’s policy not to fund public transport does the electorate few favours. Cannng is growing and has increasing traffic congestion. The Perth Mandurah rail line gave the area a huge boost. Rail services to Armidale are far from ideal but Abbott has no intention of contributing any funds to improving them.

  28. guytaur @ 41

    You do realise that the PMO seeded the media with this story to elicit the kind of comment you made?

    Their somewhat cynical view is that if the Australian public is not up in arms about the casual culture of rape of asylum seekers we have placed on Nauru, they are never going to be bothered about chopping off a hand of a vicious Taliban killer for identification purposes.

  29. Unbelievably, multiple reports now emerging of Abbott cynically warmongering to “wedge Labor”. This is high wire stuff from a deeply unpopular man, especially coming from Rupert’s gravitas guru.

    [@BenOquist: Paul Kelly reveals that Abbott has orchestrated the request from US for Syria military assistance to – in part – wedge Labor @SkyNewsAust]

    Which is an example of the devious ruthlessness of the U.S. Citizen. He know s the flag and militarisation of things is Abbott’s sole remaining sweet spot. So if he needs to be blasted out, attack his sole remaining strength.

  30. [@BenOquist: Paul Kelly reveals that Abbott has orchestrated the request from US for Syria military assistance to – in part – wedge Labor @SkyNewsAust]

    Sending troops off to war solely to wedge your political opponents is hardly the action of having the army’s back.

  31. Sprocket

    I find the whole idea of Abbott seeking to get involved in a war to wedge Labor very believable. As if sending 300 troops to Iraq would do anything other than make Australia a target for extremists? That would barely be enough men to defend their own air base. All the various factions in the civil war have armies in the tens of thousands. Over 60,000 Australians served in Vietnam, and even then we only defended one province.

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