Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll by Galaxy lands well in line with the broader trend in pointing to a formidable swing of 8% to Labor.

Today’s Sunday Mail in Queensland publishes federal voting intention figures from the Galaxy poll that produced the state results you can read about in the post immediately below this one. The federal results are broadly similar to the state ones, and likewise in alignment with the current Queensland reading of BludgerTrack, in crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, which represents an 8% swing compared with the 2013 election result. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (compared with 45.7% in 2013), 37% for Labor (29.8%), 10% for the Greens (6.2%) and 3% for Palmer United (11.0%). The poll also provides a second encouraging personal result for Bill Shorten following his improved rating in last weekend’s Ipsos poll, with 40% rating him the federal leader with the “best plan for Queensland” compared with 34% for Tony Abbott – a question that produced a 42-40 split in favour of Abbott when last posed in the wake of the budget in May. The poll had a sample of 800 respondents, and was presumably conducted late in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,060 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  3. Also Sprocket thanks for 24. I had missed the story about the Liberals Victorian embezzlement saga. Hilarious :). No honour among thieves. Have a good day all.

  5. Thanks sprocket. This follows the PB discussion yesterday:

    [Members of the ADF vote for the conservative parties more than any other occupational group – more than lawyers, or farmers, or corporate executives. It comes as no surprise that such people would also join those parties, run for preselection and secure public office.

    The defence force serves the nation, regardless of who may be governing it at any given moment. Yet, conservative politics in this country has always claimed to be more supportive of the military than Labor:

    Billy Hughes split the ALP over conscription in World War I;

    Labor had pacifist and anti-Imperialist elements among its membership since the party’s inception, which increased after the slaughter of World War I;

    Labor criticised what little the Lyons government did to upgrade Australia’s military in the 1930s;

    John Curtin had been a pacifist in World War I, and conservatives used this against him becoming Prime Minister during World War II. The disastrous decision to send Australian troops to Singapore was considered by many historians to be a reaction to conservative criticism, not only from within Australia but from Churchill in the besieged UK;

    Following rhetoric from the Nixon Administration in the US, conservatives conflated protests against the Vietnam war with pacifism and antipathy to troops, and criticised the Whitlam government for withdrawing Australian troops from South Vietnam;
    In 2003, then-Labor leader Simon Crean opposed sending Australian troops to Iraq, but declared his support for the troops nonetheless to the derision of the gung-ho Howard government.

    All of the above points (and others like them) have been painstakingly rebutted by historians. I do not aim to lend them credibility they don’t have, but rather to show Hastie’s remark is not some unprecedented departure from the ADF’s non-partisan service to the nation. Hastie draws upon a consistent rhetorical tradition in Australia’s conservative politics.

    Poor pay and conditions for ADF personnel, and inadequate support for wounded veterans, are yet more of those bipartisan traditions that our press gallery and defence/foreign policy intelligentsia insist upon but which fail us over and over again. You can expect that Andrew Hastie, whether as an MP or an advisor, will achieve no more for serving personnel and veterans than anyone else has in the past fifty years.]

  6. Middleton – ‘if that was meant to be a smear against Hastie, it may have backfired’

    Yet again a media insider is sucked in by the Liberal spin machine. Of course, the Liberals seeded this story in the media so that Hastie could give a strong response which is being reported EVERYWHERE. Whereas, of course, the ‘smear’ was nothing of the sort. It was a factual report linking Hastie to a big issue that arose a couple of years ago. Of course Henderson reinvents the report as a ‘smear’.

  7. [ An explosion has been reported at a chemical plant in China’s eastern province of Shandong.

    Large flames could be seen from the site after the blast in the city of Zibo. Nine people are reported injured.

    The People’s Daily said a warehouse at the Runxing chemical plant exploded. There is a residential area about 1km from the plant.

    Earlier this month blasts involving chemicals in the northern city of Tianjin killed at least 121 people. ]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-34029202

  9. For once a question is asked that is on my mind:

    “If you can’t accurately target food parcels, how can you target bombs?”

  10. WOW, JB saying she is getting full support from Bill Shorten….just not Tanya Plibersek.

    Thats a generous statement from the FM

  11. I just turned Insiders off – can’t stand anymore of Droopy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droopy) and now J Bishop is on.

    BTW I just read Latham’s article and I did not interpret the content as a personal attack Batty on directly, but he stirred a hornets nest by attacking, in his words more or less, a “lefty feminist” group in the Our Watch.
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/mark-latham-argues-we-are-putting-women-in-danger-20150624-ghw6dx

  12. [TPOF
    ….“If you can’t accurately target food parcels, how can you target bombs?”]

    If the bomb sat there and blew up at some point in the future you would have a point.

    Any food that was dropped would likely fall into the hands of whoever was in control of the area in which it was dropped.

    Nice idea, the practicalities are the problem.

  15. “@profsarahj: “Incident” is old, but still being investigated. Neither Defence nor Hastings confirmed his being cleared before Fairfax published #insiders”

  16. I think the final nail in Tony’s coffin was when he called Labor “racist”. At that point, thousands of voters said to themselves: “Hang on Tony, I thought you were the racist – that’s why I was voting for you”. Now they’ve changed sides.

    Loon Pond has a great analysis of how the toilet-graph is now attacking the NRL bosses who didn’t sign a deal with Foxtel and are trying to get them booted. A conflict of interest? Only a slight one. How stupid do you have to be to read the telegraph?

  17. [If the bomb sat there and blew up at some point in the future you would have a point.]

    As they do.

    [Any food that was dropped would likely fall into the hands of whoever was in control of the area in which it was dropped.]

    And any bomb that was dropped would likely fall on the heads of whoever was in control of the area in which it was dropped. If you can’t target one you can’t target the other.

    Bishop is such a nasty piece of work.

  18. Is this true? If so what a stuff up. No LNP candidate to vote for.

    “@julie_library: Let me get this right #AndrewHastie @LiberalAus rep 4 #Canning is unable 2 vote as he doesn’t reside in electorate yet & it’s 2 late 2 enrol”

  23. [WOW, JB saying she is getting full support from Bill Shorten]

    Immediately I heard that I wondered what is going to happen to the wedge strategy. I can see that bit excerpted every time Captain Chaos tries to imply that Bill Shorten is not supportive of Australian soldiers and is a friend of Daesh.

  24. “@TheRealKerryG: Finally got to the Laurie Oakes piece. The Vic Lib fraudster was due to arrive in #Canning on Tuesday to head up Hasties campaign. Oh dear.”

  26. Turned off Insiders. Had enough of the windbag Henderson. If anyone has a stronger stomach and is still watching they can report on anything interesting.

  27. Here is yesterday’s article

    [AT LAST Tony Abbott has had a bit of luck. The sensational $1.5 million Liberal Party embezzlement scandal was uncovered just in time to stop it affecting a must-win federal by-election.
    Damien Mantach, the party’s former Victorian director accused of taking the money, had been assigned to work on the Liberal campaign for the September 19 poll for the WA seat of Canning.
    He was, according to sources in the Liberal organisation, due to fly to Perth on Tuesday.
    Abbott can thank his lucky stars an internal party audit disclosing the alleged false invoicing scam prevented that.]

  29. So much for the ALP is not attacking Hastie PB meme:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/canning-by-election-distasteful-jokes-over-andrew-hastie-record-criticised/story-e6frgczx-1227495016027

    [Mr Tallentire, the state opposition environment spokesman, re-tweeted: “So #Hastie thinks campaigning for solar is aggressive? Can I have a show of hands on that?”]

    and

    [Mr West, the state opposition agriculture spokesman, re-tweeted: “A chopper with Bronny in comes in to land & here’s Hastie’s chopper, to chop off your hand! #Canning u believe this?]

  31. Isn’t there a school of thought that compares Australia with Argentina? Saying that as similar nations they had roughly the same chances but that while Australia prospered, as a result of poor choices the Argentinians didn’t do so well?
    So now Abbott looks like catching down to some extent, with a war contrived for solely political purposes to save his ailing regime?

  32. Hapless @ 79

    Get a sense of humour. Hand jokes are going to abound – and not just Labor. And while Hastie is tied to the incident, it does not play out badly for him at a personal level, as we saw yesterday with his in turns, self-pitying and nasty smearing speech at the Lib love-in.

    Libs do outrage like an ice addiction. You only have to watch Henderson on Insiders (although I got sick of it quickly) inventing things to get ridiculously outraged about.

  35. [TPOF
    Posted Sunday, August 23, 2015 at 9:48 am | PERMALINK
    Hapless @ 79

    Get a sense of humour.]

    …[Libs do outrage like an ice addiction.]

    Its not about having a sense of humour, its about highlighting that what has been said repeatedly here “The ALP is not attacking Hastie” is wrong.

    Thats all!

  37. I wonder what the record would be for number of polls (or perhaps months) of being consistently behind followed by winning the election.

    I reckon Howard would be in with a good shot at that title in the 1998-2001 period

  38. guytaur @ 68: You don’t have to be enrolled for a seat in order to be a candidate for the seat. In fact, you don’t have to be enrolled anywhere: the requirement is that you be qualified to be an elector. Electoral Act, s.163(1).

    In any case, if a candidate’s forms are filled in correctly, s/he will go on the ballot, and the only recourse is to challenge the election result afterwards.

  39. “I was too busy fighting the bad guys” would probably pass as an excuse for a candidate not having signed the right paperwork in time.

  40. confessions

    [ Sending troops off to war solely to wedge your political opponents is hardly the action of having the army’s back. ]

    Utterly disgraceful (but also utterly predictable) behaviour by Abbott. And perhaps Hastie supports the Coalition because he understands that the military will see much more action under an Abbott-led government?

  41. P1

    [perhaps Hastie supports the Coalition because he understands that the military will see much more action under an Abbott-led government?]

    They like the often unnecessary toys the Libs provide them with.

  43. victoria @ 84: If Mr Hastie made a provably false assertion that Ms Gillard had never been to Afghanistan, the press should be accosting him on that to his face at the first opportunity, and asking him to apologise to her.

  44. H

    Liberal smear. The whole point of Abbott going for Khaki election tactics.

    Very very dangerous politics for the country.

    It also happens to be a lie.

  47. [guytaur
    …H

    Liberal smear. The whole point of Abbott going for Khaki election tactics.

    Very very dangerous politics for the country.

    It also happens to be a lie.]

    and

    [95
    CTar1
    ….Liberal over reach on display.]

    Check the two posts above mine!

  49. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, August 23, 2015 at 10:07 am | PERMALINK
    H

    Those posts are about the politicians not the Defence Forces. An idiotic comment from you.]

    Oh really?

    [They like the often unnecessary toys the Libs provide them with.]

    The Coalition are providing military equipment for politicians?

  50. [And perhaps Hastie supports the Coalition because he understands that the military will see much more action under an Abbott-led government?]

    ….and this is a comment about the military seeing more action in Parliament when they are elected as MPs is it?

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