Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Only incremental change this week from Essential Research, which also produces relatively encouraging news for both leaders on their standing against leadership alternatives from their own parties.

The latest reading of the fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens up one to a three-year high of 12%. Also:

• The highlight of the supplementary questions relates to favoured leaders of the major parties, a question last run at Tony Abbott’s low-point in February. He’s improved since then from 11% to 18%, and in doing so moved past Julie Bishop, who is down from 21% and 17% – a result that was reflected in a recent Morgan poll, and had some of us wondering if there was a name recognition issue with Bronwyn Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead at a steady 24%, but Abbott leads 41-21 among Coalition voters. The Labor results are a lot better for Bill Shorten than Morgan’s, putting him narrowly in front with 16% compared with 13% for Tanya Plibersek and 12% for Anthony Albanese. However, the uncommitted ratings for the Labor question are particularly high – 18% “someone else” and 36% “don’t know”, compared with 13% and 22% for the Liberals.

• A “biggest threats to the world” question has terrorism, global economic stability and climate change leading a field of seven on 61%, 51% and 38%. With the question changed to “biggest threats to the Australia”, the respective numbers are 47%, 55% and 38%.

• A question on the importance of the asylum seeker issue has 37% rating it “quite important but not as important as other stories”, 29% as “one of the most important issues” and 7% as “the most important issue”, without too much variation by voting intention or in comparison with the last such result from June 2013. Ten per cent think it not very important, and 9% not at all important. The Liberals are rated the best party to handle it by 37% with Labor on 12% and the Greens on 8%, which again is much the same as the June 2013 result.

• Labor’s policy for a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 has 65% approval and 16% disapproval, although 51% expect it will lead to higher costs, compared with 18% for lower costs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. phoenix

    [Sarin, anthrax, agent orange, methamphetanmines/ice, atomic weapons etc etc ….. sure, they were all invented by Con the Fruiterer and his boys in the back of the shop ….or was it Bob The Builder ????? …]

    There’s a distinction between discovery/invention and use/misuse.

    Sarin was originally developed by scientists as a pesticide, before the Nazis got hold of it.

    You also mention anthrax. In the late 19th centry, Koch’s discovery of anthrax was pivotal in understanding how certain microbes (‘germs’) cause disease – refuting the theory of ‘spontaneous generation’. Further work on understanding anthrax led to widespread measures to prevent people from catching (and dying from) anthrax – or “woolsorters disease”. The deployment of anthrax as a bioweapon came much later.

  2. silentmajority

    [Pick a design & then build them ALL to this spec]

    If that’s the way we’re doing it we’re not smart about it.

    The RN pick a design and then build in ‘batches’.

    The Batch 3 Type 42’s built post the Falklands were significantly different because of ‘lessons learned’. The remaining Batch 1 & 2’s all upgraded as part of their next refit.

  3. Raaraa

    A two party democratic planned economy on income distribution might be the way to with only owners of business being capitalists getting a little extra money for their management skills etc.

    No work no worries about wage disparity.

  4. kakuru #151
    Speaking of scientists…

    [Q&A recap: Neil deGrasse Tyson turns his mind to Adam Goodes and ‘Planet White Australia’

    The world’s sexiest astrophysicist (retired) came to Australia and to Monday night’s Q&A equipped with a fearsome brain and a fabulous array of desk-bound dance moves so exotic that, were he a footy player, the more enthused barrackers among us may have booed him back to the customs desk and beyond.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-recap-neil-degrasse-tyson-turns-his-mind-to-adam-goodes-and-planet-white-australia-20150804-giqrbt.html#ixzz3hpbw4MFO

  5. So Tony Abbott going after little workers again.

    We knew this would happen, still wish the public would wake up, even after the bishop scandal.

  6. Wakefield

    I do like being beaten up for something I never said, so here goes —

    There was an article which inferred (didn’t even state) that X could be a third force in politics federally (not in South Australia).

    I said he wouldn’t be.

    He might win every seat in SA (doubt it) and that still wouldn’t make him a third force in politics.

    It would obviously make him a force to be dealt with.

    However, I would point to the fate of similar individual based parties – PHON, PUP – as to the likelihood of that being something that would last.

  7. Raaraa
    Tukka sounds right.

    It was near a Hookah bar.

    So when you finished tucking in at Tukka, you could have toke on a Hookah.

  8. zoomster

    Again like it or not there is a third force in Australian politics already called the Greens.

    So put the third force bit in quotation marks if its not you saying it.
    Its Liberal Party Labor Party then the Greens. Just look at the polling.

  9. zoom – just getting people up to speed. The difference with X is that he is now a pretty hardened polly having been an MP for about 18 years. Look how he has got himself at the centre of the independents in the Senate and is now pretty clearly the key to many votes in Senate.

  10. no pressure on the Geelong faithfull.

    [Sydney Swans champion Adam Goodes has confirmed he wants to return to face Geelong on Saturday night at Simonds Stadium after a week away on personal leave.

    Goodes stepped onto the SCG playing surface and was greeted by a media pack 30-strong, but even with the snap of the cameras in his face, the veteran had a broad smile and spoke of his relief to be training with teammates ahead of an important clash with the Cats.
    ]

    http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2015-08-04/goodes-rejoins-teammates-at-training

  11. guytaur@163

    Ctar

    Sneer as you will. Its a fact. Not an opinion.

    Hopefully we have passed ‘peak LOON’ and they will go the way of their predecessor LOONS, the ‘Democrats’.

  12. bemused

    That is a lot of Australians you are calling loons. Maybe you should think about a saner place with less loons like the US.

  13. guytaur@167

    bemused

    That is a lot of Australians you are calling loons. Maybe you should think about a saner place with less loons like the US.

    As you are not a Green, why does it bother you?

  14. the reason I have not signed up with crickey is because I am a pensioner and cannot afford it. but I need Tuesdays information as well s Thursdays please help.

  15. gt

    [Sneer as you will.]

    I don’t get to the ‘sneer’ point.

    I generally find the Labor Party as so ‘earnest’, the Coalition ‘dogmatic’ and the Greens and independents as slightly ‘comical’.

  16. zoomster

    Not at all. You talked about Xenophon being the next major force in politics as being unlikely.

    You referred to third force.

  17. Here in SA, Xenophon is far more electorally popular than the Greens. The only Green here with any name recognition is SHY, who has always been a polarising character. Where as most I speak to around Adelaide have nothing but praise for X

  18. [the reason I have not signed up with crickey is because I am a pensioner and cannot afford it. but I need Tuesdays information as well s Thursdays please help.]

    Any information in particular?

  19. I would rate the nongs who took us into the First World War as the worst Federal Government ever.

    That wasn’t a decision of the Australian Government, but the British who controlled our foreign policy, indeed the foreign policy of all the countries of the Empire until at least 1931 (Statute of Westminster, 1931, although Australia didn’t ratify it until 1942 and had to backdate it to the declaration of war in 1939).

  20. guytaur@169

    bemused

    The word loon bothers me. Its a put down of the mentally ill

    William Bowe@172

    The word loon bothers me. Its a put down of the mentally ill


    What bothers me about it is that it fell out of use in about 1974.

    From dictionary.com
    [loon
    noun
    1. a crazy or simple-minded person.]
    No mention of mental illness or usage ceasing around 1974.

    Seems to be an apt description of adherents of certain political cults.

  21. William Bowe@182

    Also from dictionary.com:

    groovy
    adjective, groovier, grooviest.
    1.
    Slang. highly stimulating or attractive; excellent:
    groovy music; a groovy car.

    Your choice of self descriptor? 😛

  22. guytaur@181

    bemused

    Look up the word crazy that might help you

    Hmmmm… dictionary.com again
    [crazy
    adjective, crazier, craziest.
    1. mentally deranged; demented; insane.
    2. senseless; impractical; totally unsound:
    a crazy scheme.
    — ]
    Of course I would apply it in the second sense. 😀

  23. bemused

    Loon. Loony. I need say no more. Generally how perceived no matter how you try and present otherwise.

    The word has fallen out of use of the language for a reason

  24. Mackellar by-election watch:

    [Rob Harris @rharris334
    So Brownyn Bishop’s yearly retirement pension will likely be considerably more than her $195K-a-year salary as a backbencher.]

  25. [slothy

    Posted Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    I would rate the nongs who took us into the First World War as the worst Federal Government ever.

    That wasn’t a decision of the Australian Government, but the British who controlled our foreign policy, indeed the foreign policy of all the countries of the Empire until at least 1931 (Statute of Westminster, 1931, although Australia didn’t ratify it until 1942 and had to backdate it to the declaration of war in 1939).]

    OK. We are narrowing down the identity of the nongs…

  26. Loon? I stand to be corrected but isn’t this the nick name given to the Canadian dollar? Also, is it not some kind of bird as well?

    I thought Looney Tunes were great cartoons in their day too.

  27. And also the notorious “The Gas Lash” which I vaguely remembered and Google helped out…
    [Martin Sharp…
    In 1961 he enrolled in Architecture at university (SU and/or UNSW). He was in trouble for obscenity for the cartoon The Gas Lash in the UNSWstudent publication Tharunka’s 1964 Orientation Week issue. ]

  28. &imgrefurl=http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/birds/common-loon/&h=450&w=600&tbnid=QRvTRxnM2IBSEM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=200&usg=__Iim4fVqxUwQjCA1HFaH9kk-j1as=&docid=mXGUOK9JCJyrnM&itg=1

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