Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Only incremental change this week from Essential Research, which also produces relatively encouraging news for both leaders on their standing against leadership alternatives from their own parties.

The latest reading of the fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens up one to a three-year high of 12%. Also:

• The highlight of the supplementary questions relates to favoured leaders of the major parties, a question last run at Tony Abbott’s low-point in February. He’s improved since then from 11% to 18%, and in doing so moved past Julie Bishop, who is down from 21% and 17% – a result that was reflected in a recent Morgan poll, and had some of us wondering if there was a name recognition issue with Bronwyn Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead at a steady 24%, but Abbott leads 41-21 among Coalition voters. The Labor results are a lot better for Bill Shorten than Morgan’s, putting him narrowly in front with 16% compared with 13% for Tanya Plibersek and 12% for Anthony Albanese. However, the uncommitted ratings for the Labor question are particularly high – 18% “someone else” and 36% “don’t know”, compared with 13% and 22% for the Liberals.

• A “biggest threats to the world” question has terrorism, global economic stability and climate change leading a field of seven on 61%, 51% and 38%. With the question changed to “biggest threats to the Australia”, the respective numbers are 47%, 55% and 38%.

• A question on the importance of the asylum seeker issue has 37% rating it “quite important but not as important as other stories”, 29% as “one of the most important issues” and 7% as “the most important issue”, without too much variation by voting intention or in comparison with the last such result from June 2013. Ten per cent think it not very important, and 9% not at all important. The Liberals are rated the best party to handle it by 37% with Labor on 12% and the Greens on 8%, which again is much the same as the June 2013 result.

• Labor’s policy for a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 has 65% approval and 16% disapproval, although 51% expect it will lead to higher costs, compared with 18% for lower costs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 19
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  1. TPOF at 94

    The use of BB by Abbott to undermine any pretence of evenhandedness in the HoR though was perhaps the most extraordinarily pernicious action undertaken by a PM in my lifetime. Its repercussions will reverberate for sometime & at the very least will undermine the perception of a fair & democratic institution in the minds of many. What he was thinking in doing this is for future historians & investigative journalists (if any remain) to uncover but it must never again be allowed to occur. It will endure as part of his twisted legacy & provide a precedent for classes on ‘how not to govern’.

  2. [The Abbott government has accused big business of peddling propaganda against proposed changes to competition law and says Labor has fallen for it.

    As the rift widened between the Coalition and its traditional ally, the Business Council of Australia, Small Business Minister Bruce Billson hit back at a campaign against cabinet approving the introduction of an effects test in the Competition and Consumer Act to ban the misuse of market power that has the effect of ­substantially lessening competition.]

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/bruce-billson-says-labor-has-drunk-the-bca-koolaid-on-effects-test-20150804-giqw9i?stb=twt

  3. Zoomster

    I feel a bit sorry for Aunty. Since the BBC now sells its programs to FOX the ABC has either to use repeats or gets them after the Foxtel.

    Midsomer murders is now on Gem also

  5. I think swinging voters may be mollified by the ships pledge. It may be Pyne’s saviour. Myself? I remember that the submarines were a pledge too.

  7. BB

    [Science has few morals. In fact I’ve never seen a definition of the word “science” that includes a reluctance to be corrupted. Looked at dispassionately, faking a barnacle infestation might well be seen as serving the greater good. ]

    Horseshit. All of it. Now you’ve accused barnacle experts of being suborned by this malign MH370/Diego Garcia conspiracy.

    Proportionately speaking, barnacles have a really big ding-dong.

    http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2012/06/male-barnacles-have-the-largest-penis-proportional-to-their-body-size-in-the-animal-kingdom/

    I only mention this GG because this MH370/DG conspiracy crapola makes you come across as a big dick.

  9. How stupid can you be? Take a selfie.

    [“He took a photo with the echidna and showed that to a member of the public who raised the alarm,” he said.

    Piggie had been all over the news as police investigated her abduction, which puzzled many given echidnas are spiny, smelly and are not black market material.

    It’s alleged Simmons was able to take authorities to within 100m of where Piggie was found at the back of the sanctuary on Monday evening, 44 hours after two men allegedly snatched her from her enclosure.

    She had tucked herself under a log, curled up into a ball and was waiting to be rescued.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/04/selfie-with-echidna-helped-police-track-down-piggies-alleged-kidnapper

  11. imacca

    [Which is why i am confused as to why the Navy hasn’t put anything is the way of significant self defensive armament on the Canberra class.]

    CIWS is very handy stuff but the plan would be that the Landing ships never go into a hostile environment with out a escort.

  14. [CTar1

    Posted Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    imacca

    Which is why i am confused as to why the Navy hasn’t put anything is the way of significant self defensive armament on the Canberra class.

    CIWS is very handy stuff but the plan would be that the Landing ships never go into a hostile environment with out a escort.]

    I just Googled ‘Top Quality Escorts’ and I don’t think that Plan A is going to work.

  17. [I think swinging voters may be mollified by the ships pledge. It may be Pyne’s saviour. Myself? I remember that the submarines were a pledge too.]

    Its going to depend on how Nik X treats it. Swing voters listen to him.

  19. [ imacca will it pay off politically in SA? ]

    I think it may not. The ALP has already taken a position to support builds like this in Australia, so Abbott isn’t really differentiating himself, and if these announcements are seen as “promises” (is it gospel truth??) simply to provide cover for awarding the BIG submarine contract to an overseas build??

    That said, any other proposal would be driving a stake through the heart of all their seats in SA. 🙂 So….Abbott really did not have a choice. We’ll see if anyone believes him i guess.

    These builds are well into the next term of Govt so i’d think people in SA would be making the right noises publicly, taking it with a grain or 400 of salt, and making sure they leverage it to get the ALP to explicitly commit to the same thing.

  20. When the submarine issue was running hot, a whole of Ultra Dry Marketeers were besieging social media about how the unions were corrupt, how there was no value for money in Australian yards, how South Australia was parasitic, and how Australian workers were utterly incompetent. And about how the only place to build decent submarines was in Japan.

    As for the subs so for the car manufacturing industry.

    I assume that these hacks will now have to Vicki Verka all their social media commentary.

  21. It used to be that if there was a terrorist incident in Australia, it would suit Abbott politically.

    Something has changed, my antennae say.

    Having spent squintillions and having discarded the Magna Carta, a millennium of Common Law and most of the tenets of democracy, Australians are going to have a bit of a view that Abbott had better deliver on the safety stuff.

  23. [ kakuru

    Posted Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    BB – Science has few morals.

    Horseshit. All of it.
    ]

    Sarin, anthrax, agent orange, methamphetanmines/ice, atomic weapons etc etc ….. sure, they were all invented by Con the Fruiterer and his boys in the back of the shop ….or was it Bob The Builder ????? …

  24. I can’t see swing voters being won back to Abbott by the shipbuilding pledge. He’s already proven untrustworthy twice on the matter (first with the election promise and again to SA Liberals to secure spill votes) so I can’t see third time lucky.

    Nor if it was successful that he wouldn’t try nobbling the program later on

  25. Boerwar … did you see the details relating to that so-called list or are you just taking it for gospel that these were somehow underhanded?

    That’s like take comments by some twitter posts as gospel.

    I, for one, won’t make accusations about the veracity of someone’s (especially a public figure) with hard evidence.

    I even think it likely that not all Bronny’s supposed trips were unfounded.

    As a person who runs a business, I have also had a number of instances where I’ve accidentally used the wrong credit card and had to claim back or refund moneys as soon as I discovered it.

    I am not blaming the system … but people are fallible as well as greedy and I am not going to jump into “they’re all as bad as each other camp” without hard evidence.

  26. [ CIWS is very handy stuff but the plan would be that the Landing ships never go into a hostile environment with out a escort. ]

    Thats the plan, but i’ll go with Boer:

    [ I just Googled ‘Top Quality Escorts’ and I don’t think that Plan A is going to work. ]

    🙂

    Something like 2-3 SEA-RAM launchers is cheap compared to the cost of a major surface ship. And i’d have concerns about their vulnerability during humanitarian operations where they may have to go into parts of the world where some prat with a missile may take a potshot to try and make a point. The AWD or Frigate escort thing is really only going to apply in a shooting war, and even then i’m not sanguine about it.

  27. I would rate the nongs who took us into the First World War as the worst Federal Government ever.

    No government ever killed more Australians to so little advantage.

    At least Abbott was smart enough to get it that his death wish to send an Australian brigade to take on ISIL was as dopey as.

  30. jenauthor

    Do you really think that Labor would not have been better off getting someone from the ranks who had not had a freebie with Obeid, and who had not paid back 15 trips, and who had not spent a motza on his kids going to Uluru, and who had not spent $10,000 a day or whatever on some trip o/s?

    You seem to be thinking this is about a trial of Burke.

    It is not.

    My point was that there were better choices than Burke.

    ps Please stop harassing me!

  31. Boerwar #130
    …and who had not paid back 15 trips…

    Just curious, which source are you using for this information?

  33. Just to put the World War 1 decision into perspective, it resulted in deaths equivalent to 15,000 pink batts when our population was less than a quarter of what it is now.

  38. The problem with the Newspoll expectations is from Newspoll itself.

    Its schedule raises the expectation of fortnightly release. When it does not do the fortnightly release everyone comes out with their favourite conspiracy theory.

    So any confusion that arises Newscorpse totally deserves. William should just pass on complaints with an auto response to PB people of your complaint has been passed on to the Newspoll management.

  40. Apologies if you think I was harrassing you Boer, not my intention … I just didn’t get why an anonymous list from a message board was your evidence for condemning Burke.

    The Obeid thing was explained at ICAC and wasn’t taken further.

    I’ll leave off now.

  41. There is always a caveat….
    [The above votes were achieved on the giant Senate ballot paper used at the 2013 election. There will be fewer candidates on House ballot papers, and Xenophon will not be on House ballot papers himself, just his party name. Most of the sitting members will also have their own personal support to buttress their party vote.]

  42. [ Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    I would rate the nongs who took us into the First World War as the worst Federal Government ever.
    ]

    … Gulf Of Tonkin ‘incident’, WMD ……Mujahideen/Taliban/ Afghanistan ( Ronnies ‘Freedom Fighters’ …… ring any bells regarding our service people lives ???? ( maybe not on scale but on principle )

    ….

  43. Just a note on my understanding of how Navy operations work.

    if we have 3 AW destroyers then planning is for only one available. ie 1 in refit, 1 in work up & 1 on station. Same goes for Subs or anything else. Some of this may overlap so MAYBE 2 available for on station if you’re lucky but most likely 2 in refit overlap etc.

    The other thing is how we’ve always gone about building ships & subs. Pick a design & then build them ALL to this spec then close down the production line. Hence you can end up with a whole dud class of ships or subs & a loss of expertise. Sound familiar?

    I’m all for choosing a design, building 1 or 2 then re-evaluating & improving the next build as so each ship is an improvement over the last & we have a continuous ongoing shipbuilding capability.

    this sounds great in theory but the biggest drawback we have is manning. no use having 12 subs laid up because we don’t have enough personel.

  44. phoenix

    I am open to discussion on the issue.

    I was going by the cost benefit equation.

    But really, in terms of a government which really did major damage to the nation for zip return, the nongs who took us into WW1 are going to be difficult to beat.

    I hope no Australian government ever does beat that government for worst ever.

  46. In response to the 89 Billion dollar warship spend, China churned out a few hundred more jy-18s and jy-12s then went home for lunch

  47. [Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    Phoenix
    Further point: we lost 600 killed in Vietnam and 60,000 killed in WW1.
    ]

    … you are 100% right, Boerwar on ‘scale’ of Australian casualties …. I was just trying to make a point of lives lost on ‘false’ pretences of why we were/are involved in Vietnam/Iraq/ Afghanistan …..

  48. Hopefully a few sceptics might now realize the X factor in SA is significant. The interesting thing is that nearly all minor parties preferenced against X last time – to the extent that they went to a major party before X. Not many preferenced to both major parties ahead of X. At this stage X is greater threat to Libs but interesting to see his tactics with Labor on preferences in HR and Senate.

  49. kakuru@41

    Raaraa

    Now that really reminds me of the series of which I watched an episode of last night, Humans.


    What’d you think? I thought it was not too bad, but I lost interest toward the end. I doubt I’ll tune in next week.

    My philosophy is: if it was any good, it’d be on ABC1.

    I enjoyed it. Watching it, I had a debate on my other half regarding this. One of the concerns brought up is that our jobs will disappear. I think it’s inevitable. I think we need to change the way we live but we’ll have to embrace it. Who knows, really.

  50. Simon Katich@52

    There was a place in Brissy’s West End that did similar fare. They even served possum.

    Nothing prepares you for possum.

    It doesnt taste like chicken.

    Tukka Advance Australia Fare?

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