Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Only incremental change this week from Essential Research, which also produces relatively encouraging news for both leaders on their standing against leadership alternatives from their own parties.

The latest reading of the fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens up one to a three-year high of 12%. Also:

• The highlight of the supplementary questions relates to favoured leaders of the major parties, a question last run at Tony Abbott’s low-point in February. He’s improved since then from 11% to 18%, and in doing so moved past Julie Bishop, who is down from 21% and 17% – a result that was reflected in a recent Morgan poll, and had some of us wondering if there was a name recognition issue with Bronwyn Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead at a steady 24%, but Abbott leads 41-21 among Coalition voters. The Labor results are a lot better for Bill Shorten than Morgan’s, putting him narrowly in front with 16% compared with 13% for Tanya Plibersek and 12% for Anthony Albanese. However, the uncommitted ratings for the Labor question are particularly high – 18% “someone else” and 36% “don’t know”, compared with 13% and 22% for the Liberals.

• A “biggest threats to the world” question has terrorism, global economic stability and climate change leading a field of seven on 61%, 51% and 38%. With the question changed to “biggest threats to the Australia”, the respective numbers are 47%, 55% and 38%.

• A question on the importance of the asylum seeker issue has 37% rating it “quite important but not as important as other stories”, 29% as “one of the most important issues” and 7% as “the most important issue”, without too much variation by voting intention or in comparison with the last such result from June 2013. Ten per cent think it not very important, and 9% not at all important. The Liberals are rated the best party to handle it by 37% with Labor on 12% and the Greens on 8%, which again is much the same as the June 2013 result.

• Labor’s policy for a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 has 65% approval and 16% disapproval, although 51% expect it will lead to higher costs, compared with 18% for lower costs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. There was a place in Brissy’s West End that did similar fare. They even served possum.

    Nothing prepares you for possum.

    It doesnt taste like chicken.

  4. Interesting quote on Albo’s page on Facebook 4 hours ago ?????

    NewsPoll: Poll shock for L/NP and PM Tony Abbott. ALP-55%-L/NP-45%.

    In the Newspoll’s two-party preferred basis results, Labor has a 10 percentage point lead over the L/NP.

    Can anyone check accuracy ?

  5. I’m sure there will be much tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth today at the demise of Bronnie.
    Not to worry she’ll get over it eventualy

  6. jenauthor

    http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/labor-mp-tony-burke-to-repay-false-claims.2120473/?vtrct=8&utm_expid=509771-17.U3wUhNlPTku4I_iccyMzSg.8&utm_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com.au%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%26esrc%3Ds%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D22%26ved%3D0CCAQFjABOBRqFQoTCK38_tDTjscCFYbbpgodj9UAUg%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fhotcopper.com.au%252Fthreads%252Flabor-mp-tony-burke-to-repay-false-claims.2120473%252F%26ei%3D90fAVe2kHIa3mwWPq4OQBQ%26usg%3DAFQjCNEujW9xuuf9wPK1Xv88cv0uwcGA3A#.VcBIAIenZ9A

  11. [ I see the Prairie Hotel has Quandongs ]

    Ah – memories of quandong pie. The nut drilled and threaded on string and used in the playground.

  12. ADF equipment and ‘Force Balance’:

    No expert but …

    There are some numbers of ‘things’ to have that seem to have become ‘traditional’:

    – 3 Destroyers. We’re building 3 Air Warfare Destroyers. We previously had 3 Guided missile Destroyers (Perth, Hobart and Brisbane) that were decommissioned around 2000.

    – 75 F-35’s on order. Our main order for F/A-18 a/c was for 75 and before them 75 Mirages.

    – 8 new Frigates. We built 8 ANZAC class for the RAN.

    Having purchased two Helicopter Landing ships rather than one appears to be a large waste of money.

    It seems to me that having 3 Guided Missile Destroyers in the 60’s/70’s would provide for 2 to be available to escort HMAS Melbourne.

    Three Air Warfare Destroyers to provide part of the escort for two large Helicopter Landing ships if they had to be sent out for other than natural disaster relief. Should be five I’d say (4 available, 1 in maintenance).

    Eight Frigates about right – three available for each Helicopter Landing ship.

    Twelve submarines seems extravagant. If it was nine then the two extra Air Warfare Destroyers would would easily be within budget.

  16. [I have noticed you have an interest in native foods. You should make your way to the Prairie Hotel one day.]
    How things have changed! I recall driving up to the Parachilna Pub in the late 1960’s – no-one in the bar, just the sounds of bagpipes out the back. When we discovered the owner and had a drink or two, he showed us some kurdaitcha slippers!

  17. SK – Like munties not native but I used to enjoy Loquats in the bush as a child.

    Not the sort of stuff that Coles/Woolies stock.

  18. There are two or three sources I trust for Newspoll. I really wish this News Ltd conspiracy theory would just die.

    There was no Newspoll, let alone one with those results. They’re waiting, clearly, to be relevant to the return from the winter break next week and I assume, will probably release it early for maximum impact.

  21. The really real news from Glenn Dyer in today’s Crikey:

    [US coal dying. President Barack Obama’s latest toughening of pollution rules governing America’s power industry grabbed the headlines overnight. Only hours before, Alpha Natural Resources went bust with US$7.11 billion in liabilities (and has lost money for the past 14 quarters in a row). Alpha is America’s second-biggest coal miner, with 50 mines across the US Midwest and Appalachian regions. It is second only to Peabody Energy, which last week cut 550 jobs and revealed $1 billion dollar-plus loss and write-down because of weak demand for coal and falling prices in the US and export markets (not “new” news in Australia).

    Alpha blamed its bankruptcy on tougher regulatory standards and policies that favour renewable energy, as well the weakening prices for its coal. The big driver of the slide in US coal prices has been the rising use of cheaper gas (natural and shale based) in power stations and other consumers. — Glenn Dyer]

  27. Not only is 12 submarines extravagant but where will we get the crews from since we can barely find enough crew for the present fleet – maybe some surplus US submariners on 457 visas?

  28. paulchesherDont overload powerboards.
    @melbournemfb @CFA_Updates
    # vicfire #fire #mfb #housefire

    And Abbott wants to use foreign workers first..

  30. So, Boerwar, that link gives no details of what, where, when and how.

    Looking at the past 2 years of actual documentation tells me he is vigilant.

    Do you have actual details/proof or only inferences from an anti left anonymous poster whose other posts do not appear to have actual foundation?

  31. booleanbach

    [where will we get the crews from since we can barely find enough crew for the present fleet]

    Yep, there’s certainly that as well.

  32. [Thanks Bronwyn for dragging the Coalition down. Lets see if Tony Bourke can do the same for Labor.]
    Wishful thinking John. Hello by the way, welcome back.

  37. jenauthor

    Posted Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    Jenauthor
    The Obeid freebies are on the record.

    I gave you a link to something like 15 items that had to be repaid by Burke.

    I could do the rest of your research for you but I suggest that you get yourself past the two years in Opposition to when he was minister.

    My point stands. Burke with his repayments and his Obeid links was a poor choice for attack dog.

  38. John @ 76

    [Thanks Bronwyn for dragging the Coalition down. Lets see if Tony Bourke can do the same for Labor.]

    As I posted earlier today, Tony Burke’s alleged infractions are of the same standard as a number of other Coalition members and Ministers (especially the PM) as well, no doubt, as other Labor members and possibly cross benchers in the upper and lower houses. Bronnhilde was in a class of her own in terms of the sheer arrogance of her conduct – the sense that ordinary rules are for ordinary people only; not for the likes of her.

    If the Coalition or people representing them start to make a big deal over Tony Burke, it will be a tit for tat war that will leave them all bloodied and beaten. MAD – mutually assured destruction. And, as shown by Parliamentary expenses scandal in the UK, if there is any blowback when people from all sides do it, it will be the government of the day that gets the bulk of the blame.

    So while the crap is being thrown at Tony Burke, you will notice that none of the Government is doing the flinging.

  40. [No shit. As a scientist myself, I think I’d be quite offended if a conspiracy theorist accused me of outright fabrication.]

    That is a poor argument.

    As a scientist you might feel uneasy working on weapons of war that kill people in horrible ways.

    But some have no such scruples. And they’re respectable too.

    Science has few morals. In fact I’ve never seen a definition of the word “science” that includes a reluctance to be corrupted. Looked at dispassionately, faking a barnacle infestation might well be seen as serving the greater good. We could ask Robert Oppenheimer, or perhaps (more appropriately) Edward Teller for their thoughts on the ethics of using science to cause mass destruction, except they’re dead.

    If you DO work on weapons systems that kill people, then you have negated your own argument, unless you think faking a scenario for the people that pay you large sums is ethically unacceptable whilst developing better ways to effect mass destruction is.

    Everyone has their price, is – I guess – what I’m saying.

  41. Isn’t the point of using Tony Burke that of demonstrating what an honest pollie does when they’ve made a mistake – pay up immediately without a quibblie?

  42. G’day Gary, thank you. I do hope you’ve been well. 🙂

    True it is wishful thinking as IMO the Coalition is held to a higher standard and that Bronwyn’s excesses were so great others look small in comparison.

  43. TPOF here excesses were for want of a better word excessive. I don’t understand how out of touch she could have been, she’s been in the game forever. So you’d think she’d know the damage her behaviour would have bough to the team. On top of which there was no contrition.. aarrgghhh!

  44. [I don’t understand how out of touch she could have been, she’s been in the game forever.]

    I think that is the problem. She was a politician virtually all her life and as a Senator and then the member for one of the safest seats in the country was totally out of touch with ordinary peoples’ lives. The very idea that justifying hiring a limousine so that the bus lane could be used and she didn’t get stuck in traffic with the rest of the little people is an astonishing disconnect.

    She was also a sitting duck in other ways. She was the speaker, and thus expected to exemplify the best of Parliament, not the worst, and there were many, including myself, who had not forgotten the standard demanded by Abbott of Peter Slipper. Finally, she was seen by her own side of politics as a proxy for Abbott, such was their closeness, and that is why from the very beginning the case against her had momentum.

    I expect that politicians though not an appalled general public, will be happy to have the matter swept to one side and dealt with the latest review of entitlements. No doubt the review will recommend even higher salaries in compensation for some benefit or the other that is foregone.

  45. Interesting that Abbott’s announcement on ships effectively cuts Austal in W.A. out of the running for the OPV contract. Only considering steel hulls and not the aluminium they would use for their offering in that class.

    http://www.austal.com/Resources/Deliveries/4a74c8d1-9ece-4ea8-8693-bcf8493e31cf/mrv-80-data-sheets-sml.pdf

    Which seems to tick all the other boxes though? Add an 11 shot SEA-RAM and CEA-FAR radar for air self defence and you’d have a very useful little ship. Build a 100 -120m long version and you could probably include an 8 shot VLS.

    Looks like Austal may be paying a price for the reliability / cracking issues from the Armidale class that have been so overused for “border protection”.

  46. imacca

    [Armidale class that have been so overused for “border protection]

    Yep. Frequent high speed use was not what they were designed for.

  47. [ Twelve submarines seems extravagant. ]

    Not so much i think. If you view them in the sense of a “dont fwark with us” deterrent the more scattered around the place the better. I tend to subscribe to the dictum that surface ships are basically targets during conflict.

    Which is why i am confused as to why the Navy hasn’t put anything is the way of significant self defensive armament on the Canberra class. They are probably going to be the most useful ships we have for a lot of different roles and they can even do terminal phase air self defence. 🙁

  49. [93
    John Of Melbourne

    On top of which there was no contrition.. aarrgghhh!]

    This is the best part of the whole episode. That and the love of country evinced by the Chopper as her reason for quitting. It recalls the morsel from Dickens…

    “It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known.”

    Heroically, such nobility is given to but a few. The Chopper has cast herself as an echo from “A Tale of Two Cities”…

    [It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.]

    It is absolutely brilliant that in Bronny political life is imitating soap.

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