BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The government’s position weakens further in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, as two new polls find a surge in support for the Greens.

The two-party preferred reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has ticked 0.5% in Labor’s favour for the second week in the row, on the back of a solid improvement for them in the latest fortnightly Morgan result, and a smaller shift on the weekly Essential Research numbers. In fact, the outstanding feature of both polls was the best result in years for the Greens, such that both major parties are little changed on the primary vote, and Labor’s two-party preferred improvement is received second-hand as preferences. Labor is back in majority government territory on the seat projection, thanks to single-seat gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.

There is also a new set of leadership ratings courtesy of last week’s small-sample Morgan phone poll, which I now see I neglected to link to, but you can read all about here and here. The BludgerTrack tables show how the results have changed since “last week”, but since the poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday, it might be better understood as a revised reading of the previous result than a current state of play. In particular, if the Labor national conference made any change to Bill Shorten’s position for better or worse, this poll will not have captured it. In any case, the result adds incrementally to the headlong plunges of both leaders on net approval, but doesn’t make much difference to preferred prime minister.


Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that a preselection challenge against Teresa Gambaro, the LNP member for the federal seat of Brisbane, has been called off after the intervention of Tony Abbott – which would seem to be rather big of him, as Gambaro had been one of his most vocal critics. The putative challenger was Trevor Evans, chief executive of the National Retail Association and chief-of-staff and campaign director to Peter Dutton during 2010, who was said by an LNP source quoted by Atfield to have “had the numbers”. Not only has Evans been persuaded not to run, he will also serve as Gambaro’s campaign manager.

• The winner of a Tasmanian Greens vote to choose a Senate successor to Christine Milne will be announced today, and the Launceston Examiner for one deems that the party’s former state leader, Nick McKim, is “heavily favoured” to emerge the winner from a field of about ten. Milne has not yet set a date for her departure, but in the final week of the last parliamentary sitting she gave what she said was to be her final Senate speech, so presumably it will be soon. The Greens preselection process has been covered in very great detail by local observer Kevin Bonham.

• Two dubious claims of internal polling to relate, if only because I didn’t want the above items to look lonely. Speaking on Sky News earlier this month, Victorian Liberal Party state president Michael Kroger claimed that “current polling” had support for Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania in the low twenties. The CFMEU also claims polling it has conducted finds a “Nick Xenophon-backed candidate” in Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt would poll 38% of the primary vote, compared with 30.8% for Pyne and 17.4% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. shea mcduff@946

    Roger Marks cited by bemused at #925 reminds me of the old joke-
    A man was walking down the street and saw another fella hopping up and down on one leg and chanting a mantra.
    “What are you doing that for?” he asked.
    “I’m keeping the man-eating lions away” replied the chanting hopper.
    “Don’t be silly” said the other fella, “there are no lions in Australia”.
    Replied the chanting hopper -”See, it works, doesn’t it?”
    And kept hopping and chanting.

    There must be a million variants of that old joke. 😆

  2. sceptic@940

    guytuar @912

    This from the Guardian today..
    Bronwyn Bishop claimed travel allowances as the chair of a parliamentary committee on 15 separate occasions for times and places when records indicate the committee was not conducting hearings, a review of historic travel claims reveals

    This is systematic fraud, once, twice maybe make a mistake but 15 plus times plus the chopper ripp off. Bronywn is a serial offender. It’s imperative the Dept of Finance make their investigation public

    It just doesn’t get more blatant –

    [ The claims, amounting to $3,723, cover three separate inquiries of the standing committee on families and human services, and are listed here.

    Inquiry into adoption of children from overseas

    25 July 2005 Brisbane $255
    13 August 2005 Gold Coast $212
    19 August 2005 Townsville $178
    24 August 2005 Brisbane $255
    20 October 2005 Brisbane $263

    Inquiry into balancing work and family

    22 February 2006 in Whyalla $186
    26 March 2006 in Melbourne $280
    7 June 2006 Adelaide $263
    24 August 2006 Melbourne $280
    31 August 2006 Gold Coast $228
    1 September 2006 Brisbane $288
    10 December 2006 Brisbane $285

    Inquiry into impact of illicit drug use on families

    15 April 2007 Brisbane $$288
    11 May 2007 Adelaide $268
    24 August 2007 Bathurst $194 ]

  3. Pretty good for Abbott really. Nothing in that to really demand him change tack. If Ipsos and Newspoll come out similarly he and Bronnie might just hang on.

  4. g
    One of the notable things about both the national meeting of Indigenous people to discuss Constitutional change and the Drum is that Indigenous people are now highly articulate.
    The temptation to be avoided is to leave the hard yards to them just because they are articulate.

  5. I am voting for keeping Bronnie – this has Sir Prince Phillip momentum in connecting with the general population. And they are taking the piss.

    Stay Bronnie, Stay!

  6. ratsak/954

    6 points behind on two party preferred, 10 points behind as Preferred PM – and this is somehow a good poll for Abbott?

    Good grief.

  7. [PhoenixGreen

    Posted Friday, July 31, 2015 at 4:33 pm | Permalink


    The ACT Greens Minister has improved Greens vote since his election, and Labor are on the upswing too. Greens there on track to elect 3-4 more MPs after 3 years in government.

    Greens Ministers built this complex of affordable units I live in, bought the buses I catch, set up the routes I take.

    You don’t have to agree with their decisions, but the Greens do government.]

    Puhlease don’t bore me with a few Greens ministers lurking in Labor Governments.

    Name a Greens government.

    Just one.

  8. bw

    Agree entirely. As Kevin Rudd showed Howard with the Apology and Keating with his Redfern Speech we have to do hard yards too.

    Actions not just words

  9. relatively Gary.

    It’s pretty depressing that even after all this woeful government has delivered 41% still want to give them their 1st prefs and they’re getting 47 2pp, but there you go. That’s democracy.

    I thought we might start to see some real movement like with Sir Prince Duke, but no sign of it yet. That is good for Abbott. If he can still pull 47 with even the Murdochians after Bronnie’s scalp he must still be in the game when they go back to Kill Bill. It’s ridiculous, but if people want to vote for flags at pressers then that’s their right.

  10. shea @946
    Alexander King, once editor of the New Yorker, wrote a book entitled “May This House be Safe from Tigers”. 1960’s. Gee I miss it – must look for it online!

  11. 53/47 is pretty much steady as she goes. An election-winning margin but there is no actual election.

    It’s a lot better than 47/53 but I would like to see it push out to 55. Labor tends to do better in polls than elections. Rudd won in 2007 with about 53% 2PP but polls were suggesting higher, more like 55. Likewise, polls predicted Labor victory in 2010 but it ended up 50-50.

    Then we have an election budget, the fact that the nation’s biggest media organisation will actively campaign for the Government and against the Opposition and the need for a safety margin against ‘events’. A nutter with a gun who could be labelled a ‘terrorist’ could change everything.

  12. blackburnpseph @937

    I suppose we’ll never know what Labor Ministers would have done, but I would consider it unlikely they would have achieved those two things I mentioned. O’Connor lobbied for funding for new affordable housing stock (And got some) and McKim’s “Energy efficient” bus fleet upgrades, including adding more of those infamous bendy buses, were spruiked as a way to expand Metro Tasmania’s passenger numbers, find savings on fuel & decrease carbon emissions. That new public transport ethic and active effort to increase Metro numbers I think was something fresh in a portfolio and GBE which had long been neglected.

    Something McKim failed to achieve was the Light Rail project, which was stalled by feasibility reports and technical studies. Now we have an empty rail corridor parallel to the busiest public transport route in the state, straight to MONA, just waiting for the next Greens Transport Minister to put it to use.

    Thankfully I think the ACT Greens learned from that mistake.

  13. Darn 911

    ave been over for Christmas and it s cold I can tell you especially watching New Year Eve celebrations atThe Meadows Very cold this in contrast to very warm weather for Scotland past 3 summers. eg 2 years ago there was a heat haze at British Golf open outside Edinburgh. Fingers crossed sun just broke through clouds in time for me to go to lunch with my daughtet’s in laws?

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