BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The government’s position weakens further in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, as two new polls find a surge in support for the Greens.

The two-party preferred reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has ticked 0.5% in Labor’s favour for the second week in the row, on the back of a solid improvement for them in the latest fortnightly Morgan result, and a smaller shift on the weekly Essential Research numbers. In fact, the outstanding feature of both polls was the best result in years for the Greens, such that both major parties are little changed on the primary vote, and Labor’s two-party preferred improvement is received second-hand as preferences. Labor is back in majority government territory on the seat projection, thanks to single-seat gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.

There is also a new set of leadership ratings courtesy of last week’s small-sample Morgan phone poll, which I now see I neglected to link to, but you can read all about here and here. The BludgerTrack tables show how the results have changed since “last week”, but since the poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday, it might be better understood as a revised reading of the previous result than a current state of play. In particular, if the Labor national conference made any change to Bill Shorten’s position for better or worse, this poll will not have captured it. In any case, the result adds incrementally to the headlong plunges of both leaders on net approval, but doesn’t make much difference to preferred prime minister.


Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that a preselection challenge against Teresa Gambaro, the LNP member for the federal seat of Brisbane, has been called off after the intervention of Tony Abbott – which would seem to be rather big of him, as Gambaro had been one of his most vocal critics. The putative challenger was Trevor Evans, chief executive of the National Retail Association and chief-of-staff and campaign director to Peter Dutton during 2010, who was said by an LNP source quoted by Atfield to have “had the numbers”. Not only has Evans been persuaded not to run, he will also serve as Gambaro’s campaign manager.

• The winner of a Tasmanian Greens vote to choose a Senate successor to Christine Milne will be announced today, and the Launceston Examiner for one deems that the party’s former state leader, Nick McKim, is “heavily favoured” to emerge the winner from a field of about ten. Milne has not yet set a date for her departure, but in the final week of the last parliamentary sitting she gave what she said was to be her final Senate speech, so presumably it will be soon. The Greens preselection process has been covered in very great detail by local observer Kevin Bonham.

• Two dubious claims of internal polling to relate, if only because I didn’t want the above items to look lonely. Speaking on Sky News earlier this month, Victorian Liberal Party state president Michael Kroger claimed that “current polling” had support for Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania in the low twenties. The CFMEU also claims polling it has conducted finds a “Nick Xenophon-backed candidate” in Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt would poll 38% of the primary vote, compared with 30.8% for Pyne and 17.4% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 20
1 18 19 20
  1. TBA@870: Just for once, I’ll reply to something you have posted.

    You should read my post @843. There is nothing particularly wrong with the current rules and they don’t urgently require reform. Travel to national party conferences (but not state ones) for Federal parliamentarians is permitted under the current rules for all parties.

    It would be ridiculous to try to tighten up the rules for other travel. We want our political leaders to travel the country and be accessible to the public. What we don’t want is for political fundraising events to be cross-subsidised by the taxpayer in terms of having their guest speakers conveyed to and from them at public expense. This has always been against the rules and no tightening is required there, simply compliance.

    Whether or not politicians can tack an appearance at the wedding of family or friends or competing in a triathlon onto the end of an official trip is not something that I reckon we need heaps of forms and auditors and so forth to look at. I think some of the criticism of the PM in relation to this sort of stuff has been over the top.

    The problem we are currently dealing with is one in which outlandish justifications have been made for some particular trips. I think someone should be asking questions of the bureaucrats whose job it is to police this stuff. One wonders why they were loathe to look more closely into some of the claims: particularly those relating to committee work.

    I’m sure some of our good senators will be doing just this in due course.

    In the interim, I’m still far from convinced that any rules need changing or tightening.

  2. [881

    I can only hope against hope…hope that Abbott does start to talk about travel rorts…about greed, about cheating, about self-gratification among his flock. Ordinarily, I’d say that would be really too much to wish for. But you never know. Since he lacks the stomach to sack Madam Chopper he may yet try to blame Labor for her pilfering…lol…let’s see him try that one.

  3. guytaur@895: McKim, and his partner Cassie O’Connor, were immensely unpopular ministers down here, and many in Labor would attribute to them much of the blame for Labor’s crushing defeat in the election last year.

    While I would not necessarily agree, I think it is fair to say that McKim’s time as a Minister was not exactly a great example for your argument.

    And what is your point anyway? You keep assuring us that you are not a Green. Well, all I can say is that you could have fooled me!

  4. MB

    I was not making an argument. I was refuting a fantasy. As your post itself attests part of government.

    Popularity of decisions is another matter

  5. Ok, from my limited reading of the act….
    [Anyone know what the political donation limit per person (on electoral roll) was under the NSW Barry Ofarrell laws?]
    No different to the Keneally laws the year before.
    [Were there any limits to moneys raised via fundraisers?]

  6. MB

    Besides the long term in power factor I blame the Forest Peace Deal for the unpopularity. That was excellent government. The failure was in the timing being close to the election.

    All the pain was felt and none of the benefit so the LNP was able to exploit it to the max.

    If not for that I think its possible we would have seen similar to the South Australian result. Either that or its the usual thing about corruption which Labor had a problem with in terms of perception.

  7. [Z E
    Posted Friday, July 31, 2015 at 4:46 pm | PERMALINK
    @PhoenixGreen 896

    Is there any polling available on the ACT? I can never seem to find it.]

    There was a poll not too long ago. It was mainly about opinions on the proposed light rail but also included political support. There are various articles on the Canberra Times website if you search on “light rail canberra”.

  8. “@amworldtodaypm: Finance Dept secretary has shown clear sympathy for #BronwynBishop’s position. This investigation is compromised: @Tony_Burke. Now on PM.”

  9. [There was a poll not too long ago. It was mainly about opinions on the proposed light rail but also included political support. There are various articles on the Canberra Times website if you search on “light rail canberra”.]

    Sorry, search “light rail poll”.

  10. @Z E

    Most recent ACT poll was a commissioned ReachTEL Poll conducted and released in June 2015.

    37.4 Labor (-1.5), 32.2 Liberals (-6.7), 14.9 Greens (+4.2)

    @meher baba

    I think both McKim and O’Connor were both fantastic Ministers, and I’d defend their records anyday. As I said before, my life is materially a whole lot better and simpler thanks to their actions in Government.

  11. The Greens have never been the senior partner in any state or territory government, and barring radical demographic change that trend is likely to continue. I do believe they have some good policies, but sometimes in refusing to come to negotiate, that hinders the wider progressive agenda.

  12. My take on parliamentary travel entitlements is that there isn’t actually a problem with them at all, the problem is with the politicians & their lack of moral compass. If the entitlements were so ambiguous then all politicians would be being called out when in fact proportionally, only a few rort the system, just the same as happens in the rest of society. We can tighten the rules all we like but those who will stretch them will always seek to do so.

  13. MB @ 901

    [I think someone should be asking questions of the bureaucrats whose job it is to police this stuff.]

    There is no bureaucrat with the job of policing this stuff. All the Parliamentarians are on an honour system in making claims and the only way they get found out is when the payments are published by DoF and someone picks up something questionable. Or else there is an obvious error, like claiming travel for family members outside entitlements. But auditing whether a pollie is telling the truth when they say the travel is for official purposes is pretty much non-existent and there is no staff to do it anyway.

  14. Phoenix Green

    Are you in Tasmania or the ACT? In #896 it seems as though you are in the ACT and in #914 it seems like Tasmania. Which is it?

  15. May be parliamentary entitlements should be similar to the expenses allowances for some US ‘new wave’ companies – you can spend as much as you like but the amounts are out there for all to see and if you are way out then you have to justify yourself.

  16. My favourite part of the current “pollie rort” debate is Abbott behaving like he’s only been on the periphery of this problem, rather than what he really has been: smack, bang in the middle of it with his hands in our pockets.

    He has been systematically rorting the system ever since he entered parliament and discovered he could go off on all sorts of Big Boy’s Adventures and get away with charging the taxpayer for it.

    Bike rides, camping in the wilderness, putting on hi-viz gear and pretending to be a he-man; if he can ensure he’s not out of pocket to do it, he’ll do it.

    But the minute he has to pay himself, it’s either not happening at all or it’s economy class.

    His clear preference, though, is to find some way to manipulate the system so he can “legally” charge the taxpayer.

    Legal it might be, but in the spirit of the rules it certainly is not, and hearing him carry on like he’s as pure as the driven snow is bloody sick-making.

  17. Time for some comedy relief.

    I used to think The Age didn’t go much for comedy in its letters column, but today has changed all that.

    [Best man for the times

    With all the terrorism and mayhem in the world, including Australia, does Douglas Potter believe all will be well if there is a leadership spill?

    What we need today is a strong, determined leader and government that will do all it can to protect the Australian citizens because, like it or not, terrorists are a threat.

    So far, Tony Abbott has turned the screws and is making it difficult for them to ply their trade here. For that I am thankful. I have yet to be convinced that anyone in government, let alone the Labor opposition, will do a better job of protecting me and my family.

    There is no doubt that Tony Abbott is a man for his time.

    Roger Marks, Drouin]

    Read more:

    What a rich sense of irony Roger has! 😆

  18. [I do believe they have some good policies, but sometimes in refusing to come to negotiate, that hinders the wider progressive agenda.]

    Richard di Natale seems to be of a less intransigent ilk than his predecessors. As you say Goosh Goosh, this has made merry with the progressive agenda in the past. It also doesn’t help to be oppositionist for oppositions sake when there is a conservative government in power – being constructive rather than obstructive can provide political outcomes as well.

  19. [mari
    Posted Friday, July 31, 2015 at 4:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Poroti if you are around

    Enjoying the cold (amend) freezing delights of Edinburgh, saw a couple of bagpipers yesterday in full kilt etc. Glad the wind didn’t get up 😀]

    If it’s freezing in summer what’s it like in winter?

  20. Re Abbott and Bronnie. Years back Abbott declared that he was the “ideological love child” of Howard and Bishop . Howard I understand but what was his attachment to Bronny ?

    A giraffe that he used the term “love child” what with it being another term for “illegitimate” or “bastard” . So apt.

  21. guytaur@930

    @rmitcatalyst: Student protesters block the entrance to NAB bank, where PM Tony Abbott is launching Christopher Pyne’s book

    @rmitcatalyst: Police break glass doors to forcefully eject students protesting outside Christopher Pyne’s book launch at @NAB

    Hmmm 700 Bourke St – NABs shiniest, newest building in Melbourne CBD/Docklands.

    Why would Pyne be launching a book there??? Why would NAB allow or encourage it?

  22. @blackburnpseph

    I am in Tasmania, the affordable housing was funded & built by Cassy as Human Services Minister and the Buses bought and routes set up by Nick as Transport Minister.

    In #896 I referred to the ACT Greens as improving their vote “there”, but looking back at it I probably should have separated the ACT political commentary from my own experience living under Greens Ministers. Cheers.

  23. guytuar @912

    This from the Guardian today..
    Bronwyn Bishop claimed travel allowances as the chair of a parliamentary committee on 15 separate occasions for times and places when records indicate the committee was not conducting hearings, a review of historic travel claims reveals

    This is systematic fraud, once, twice maybe make a mistake but 15 plus times plus the chopper ripp off. Bronywn is a serial offender. It’s imperative the Dept of Finance make their investigation public

  24. Roger Marks cited by bemused at #925 reminds me of the old joke-
    A man was walking down the street and saw another fella hopping up and down on one leg and chanting a mantra.
    “What are you doing that for?” he asked.
    “I’m keeping the man-eating lions away” replied the chanting hopper.
    “Don’t be silly” said the other fella, “there are no lions in Australia”.
    Replied the chanting hopper -“See, it works, doesn’t it?”
    And kept hopping and chanting.

  25. “@kevinbonham: #ReachTEL #BronwynBishop should stand down? Yes 58% No 30% L-NP voters 33.7% Yes 49.9% No #auspol”

  26. “@kevinbonham: #ReachTEL 53-47 ALP primaries 41 L-NP 38 ALP 13 Grn. Pref PM Shorten 55-45 but RT PPMs not comparable to other polls #auspol”

Comments Page 19 of 20
1 18 19 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *