BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The government’s position weakens further in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, as two new polls find a surge in support for the Greens.

The two-party preferred reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has ticked 0.5% in Labor’s favour for the second week in the row, on the back of a solid improvement for them in the latest fortnightly Morgan result, and a smaller shift on the weekly Essential Research numbers. In fact, the outstanding feature of both polls was the best result in years for the Greens, such that both major parties are little changed on the primary vote, and Labor’s two-party preferred improvement is received second-hand as preferences. Labor is back in majority government territory on the seat projection, thanks to single-seat gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.

There is also a new set of leadership ratings courtesy of last week’s small-sample Morgan phone poll, which I now see I neglected to link to, but you can read all about here and here. The BludgerTrack tables show how the results have changed since “last week”, but since the poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday, it might be better understood as a revised reading of the previous result than a current state of play. In particular, if the Labor national conference made any change to Bill Shorten’s position for better or worse, this poll will not have captured it. In any case, the result adds incrementally to the headlong plunges of both leaders on net approval, but doesn’t make much difference to preferred prime minister.

Otherwise:

Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that a preselection challenge against Teresa Gambaro, the LNP member for the federal seat of Brisbane, has been called off after the intervention of Tony Abbott – which would seem to be rather big of him, as Gambaro had been one of his most vocal critics. The putative challenger was Trevor Evans, chief executive of the National Retail Association and chief-of-staff and campaign director to Peter Dutton during 2010, who was said by an LNP source quoted by Atfield to have “had the numbers”. Not only has Evans been persuaded not to run, he will also serve as Gambaro’s campaign manager.

• The winner of a Tasmanian Greens vote to choose a Senate successor to Christine Milne will be announced today, and the Launceston Examiner for one deems that the party’s former state leader, Nick McKim, is “heavily favoured” to emerge the winner from a field of about ten. Milne has not yet set a date for her departure, but in the final week of the last parliamentary sitting she gave what she said was to be her final Senate speech, so presumably it will be soon. The Greens preselection process has been covered in very great detail by local observer Kevin Bonham.

• Two dubious claims of internal polling to relate, if only because I didn’t want the above items to look lonely. Speaking on Sky News earlier this month, Victorian Liberal Party state president Michael Kroger claimed that “current polling” had support for Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania in the low twenties. The CFMEU also claims polling it has conducted finds a “Nick Xenophon-backed candidate” in Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt would poll 38% of the primary vote, compared with 30.8% for Pyne and 17.4% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

  1. That Chopper and Abbott are aiming to tough it out says it all I suppose.

    What does she have on him that he can’t move her on?

    If all this stuff about integrity is a ‘distraction’ what is he point of any of it?

    The old saw about Guy Fawkes being the last honest man in politics has been done to death, but how true it proves to be.

    None of this would be so bad if Abbott had not set up his own set of pompous high standards with Slipper. He did and his words now hang off him as he swings in the breeze.

    Has it taken him four days to surface? I have lost count.

  2. I wonder, really, whether the Oz electorate is not beyond caring now about all this stuff?

    Business as usual while politicians win the last spot on the honesty/integrity/probity list?

  3. If Abbott ignores the likely weekend negative set of polls I think this will morph from a Bronny/bad pollies issue to an Abbott leadership one. A 55-45 would do it!

  4. [Business as usual while politicians win the last spot on the honesty/integrity/probity list?]

    Thats a win for the small government ideologues. ‘See, you cant trust politicians so dont let them control things with state owned assets, state run businesses or with regulations’.

  5. This is fascinating. Sounds impossible, yet it’s true. How many other realities do we dismiss as imagination or fairy tales?

    [Joel Salinas, a neurologist at Harvard Medical School in the United States, has a rare condition in which he feels what people around him feel.

    His mirror-touch synesthesia means that if he sees someone getting slapped on the wrist, he feels the same sensation on his own wrist.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/meet-the-doctor-who-feels-your-pain-20150731-gioig1.html#ixzz3hRe6e0VW

  6. Tony Burke won’t say in advance what Labor’s tactics will be. I hope they’re creative!

    [Earlier this week Mr Burke said Labor would no longer respect the Speaker when she tried to chair proceedings.

    Now he has broadened that to all cooperation between the two major parties, apart from parliamentary motions to mark the loss of life.

    “Whatever level of goodwill and cooperation has been there in the past will apply to condolence motions and absolutely nothing else,” Mr Burke told ABC’s Capital Hill program.

    “Any level of cooperation that the Government ordinarily relies on is gone if we have a situation where Bronwyn Bishop’s still in the chair.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-31/parliamentary-payback-threats-if-bishop-refuses-to-resign/6663598

  7. Player One @639

    [Jeebus, can you believe it – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-31/politicians-cannot-get-away-with-rule-breaking-abbott/6662042

    “Politicians ‘cannot get away with exploiting rules’, says Prime Minister Tony Abbott”

    She just has, you utter dimwit!]

    ….Could he be any more out of touch if he TRIED?!?

    Even Clive Palmer’s getting it right, and this, this….this utter nong, this blot on the Australian political landscape, is STILL sticking by Kerosene Bronny!

  8. Tony Wright, in criticising Abbott is careful to have 2-bob each way:

    [At a time when a fair slice of Australia is at odds with itself about what the weekly ritualised torment of an Indigenous footballer means to the national spirit, Prime Minister Tony Abbott has all but gone missing.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten hasn’t been vastly better, though he has named the booing as racist, declaring it was obvious Goodes was being targeted because of his Indigenous background. His advice to those he calls “idiots”? “Just shut up. Don’t say anything. Keep your thoughts to yourself.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/adam-goodes-and-racism-a-pms-statesmanship-is-left-behind-by-premiers-and-a-casino-boss-20150731-gior3m.html#ixzz3hRfsA5aV ]

    Oh yes, that’s right. Bill Shorten “hasn’t been vastly better”.

    * He’s just called the Goodes heckling for what it is: racist;

    * Declared that Goodes is being targeted;

    * And told the idiots to “Just shut up. Keep your thought to yourself.”

    What does Wright want Shorten to do? A spear dance? Slash his wrists in sympathy? Go to the ground and start shirt-fronting hecklers?

    This “balance” thing is very tedious sometimes.

  9. BK

    I’d like to see at least one QT ‘walk-out’ in protest. After all, we don’t get any information under the present model.

  10. With no cooperation being the order of the day the first thing on the agenda will be the flouting of the no props rule.

    What first. Model helicopters? P Plates?

  11. TtotalBloodyArsehat

    [ Anyone want to hazard a guess why Labor have been defeaning silent on Pollie Travel Reform? ]

    Because they’re too busy being flabbergasted by the appalling actions of the Queen of Rorts?

  12. [864
    TrueBlueAussie

    Anyone want to hazard a guess why Labor have been deafeningly (sic) silent on Pollie Travel Reform?]

    Because the LNP have a lily pad called Travel Rorts. It’s all yours. The LNP and greedy fingers are synonymous now. As long as Madame chopper is front of house, as long as Abbott lacks the nerve to sack her, this will be the theme in the minds of voters…the LNP have the hands in the public till.

  13. The LNP should move on the first day the most strict politician travel allowance restrictions in the history of the Australian Parliament… and hear those Labor Piggies Squeal!

    I mean… who paid for all those flights and accommodations for Labor pollies to go to the ALP Gabfest the other day?

    Wht “official Government business” were they attending to exactly as required under the rules?

  14. If Slipper was depicted by the tabloids as a rat, why can’t Bishop be depicted as a crow?

    After all, she squawks and screeches incessantly in Parliament, and takes things to which she is not entitled.

  15. Via #815
    [In broadcast, the commercial TV networks have run far more stories on Bishop in their news bulletins in the past two weeks than the ABC and SBS have.]

    Interesting.

    Of course raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.
    Also important, more so probably, is how the story is presented and the placement of such – lead item or tucked away as an afterthought.
    Nevertheless the information at that article is …tantalising.

  16. [ Abbott lacks the nerve to sack her ]

    If it comes to sacking her, abbott won’t have the bottle to do it himself.

    It’ll be a job for credlin.

    Just like his mum told the pregnant girlfriend there would be no marriage.

  17. TBA your delusions do make me laugh, but I’m starting to think we should feel sorry for you. Is it just all brilliant satire?

  18. TBA
    [I mean… who paid for all those flights and accommodations for Labor pollies to go to the ALP Gabfest the other day?]

    You irritating child! You keep asking that, but ignore any answers. The Conference is an allowable expense for all pollies, Libs as well.

  19. [Trog Sorrenson

    Posted Friday, July 31, 2015 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    if we are to preserve habitat in Africa or anywhere else, we need to address the core issues i.e. ecological principles, social and local economic factors and global funding and strategies, not some rationalization of the value of trading off part of the ecosystem (i.e. killing the fittest animals) as a token solution to a much larger problem.

    (This is why I am a Greens member – because it takes Labor strong positive polls to take baby steps on no brainer issues like a renewables target.)]

    Oh, I recognised Greens-think when I saw it. Straight away.

    Labor does the art of the possible.

    The Greens sledge Labor and do the art of the impossible with a stiff dose of holier than thou to go with it.

  20. Big D Dave,

    Tony Abbott is very good when it comes to the politics. The left told us he could never be leader… and he did… they told us he could never get rid of Gillard… and he did… they told us he wouldn’t beat Rudd… and he did… they told us he could never become PM and he did. They told us he would be rolled as leader.. and he wasn’t.

    He will be working on a plan as we speak to wedge Labor and this is the perfect opportunity to do it… take note that Labor has not said a peep about travel allowance reform and there is a good reason for that.. they love the rorts themselves. It’s as simple as that.

    Take away their rorts and watch the infighting and disunity begin in Labor.. they will have to tell Aussies they have great moral outrage about Bishop… but can’t support travel rorts reforms.

  21. These repetitive questions also make me wonder if we can take them as proof that TBA is just a series of Lib-bots taking turns.

  22. BW

    New Senator for Tasmania was a minister in the Labor/Green Government.

    So much for your BS the Greens don’t do government

  23. McLachlan is as weak as. This is as strong as it gets from the AFL supremo. From his open letter to fans:

    […Whether you agree or not, the booing of Adam Goodes is perceived by him and many others as being racially motivated and that’s hurting us all.
    …]

    Leadership FAIL.

  24. G

    Oh, I know that the Greens sneak a few ratbags in on Labor’s coat tails and then destroy a Labor government or two.

    What I meant was that Greens don’t do government.

  25. Poroti if you are around

    Enjoying the cold (amend) freezing delights of Edinburgh, saw a couple of bagpipers yesterday in full kilt etc. Glad the wind didn’t get up 😀

  26. [TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Friday, July 31, 2015 at 4:11 pm | Permalink
    The LNP should move on the first day the most strict politician travel allowance restrictions in the history of the Australian Parliament… and hear those Labor Piggies Squeal!
    I mean… who paid for all those flights and accommodations for Labor pollies to go to the ALP Gabfest the other day?
    Wht “official Government business” were they attending to exactly as required under the rules? ]
    As has been pointed out many times.

    Determination 2014/16: Members of Parliament –
    Travelling Allowance

    3.12 Members: Travelling allowance shall be payable to a member for each overnight stay in a place other than his or her home base when that stay is occasioned primarily by:

    (f) meetings, other than in Canberra, of a parliamentary political party, or of its executive, or of its committees, attendance at the national and state
    conferences of a political party, to which he or she belongs (see clause 1.6.2)
    , and meetings outside the electorate on electorate business up to a maximum of ten overnight stays per annum in total, and direct travel to
    or from such meetings or conferences;

    Is that so hard to understand

  27. [ TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Friday, July 31, 2015 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott ….will be working on a plan as we speak ]

    His first *Plan* was to claim all of this was “Village Gossip”.

    He then tried various other things on the checklist which have all failed.

    The next plan better be good and it better be quick because the tories are trashing their brand all over the place.

  28. g
    Name a Greens government.

    And please do not cite some poxy hybrid with a Greens minority Greensmailing the poor unfortunates stupid enough to go for the self-destruction ride.

  29. @Boerwar

    The ACT Greens Minister has improved Greens vote since his election, and Labor are on the upswing too. Greens there on track to elect 3-4 more MPs after 3 years in government.

    Greens Ministers built this complex of affordable units I live in, bought the buses I catch, set up the routes I take.

    You don’t have to agree with their decisions, but the Greens do government.

  30. Anyone know what the political donation limit per person (on electoral roll) was under the NSW Barry Ofarrell laws? Were there any limits to moneys raised via fundraisers? I cant find it via a quick google.

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