BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The government’s position weakens further in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, as two new polls find a surge in support for the Greens.

The two-party preferred reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has ticked 0.5% in Labor’s favour for the second week in the row, on the back of a solid improvement for them in the latest fortnightly Morgan result, and a smaller shift on the weekly Essential Research numbers. In fact, the outstanding feature of both polls was the best result in years for the Greens, such that both major parties are little changed on the primary vote, and Labor’s two-party preferred improvement is received second-hand as preferences. Labor is back in majority government territory on the seat projection, thanks to single-seat gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.

There is also a new set of leadership ratings courtesy of last week’s small-sample Morgan phone poll, which I now see I neglected to link to, but you can read all about here and here. The BludgerTrack tables show how the results have changed since “last week”, but since the poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday, it might be better understood as a revised reading of the previous result than a current state of play. In particular, if the Labor national conference made any change to Bill Shorten’s position for better or worse, this poll will not have captured it. In any case, the result adds incrementally to the headlong plunges of both leaders on net approval, but doesn’t make much difference to preferred prime minister.


Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that a preselection challenge against Teresa Gambaro, the LNP member for the federal seat of Brisbane, has been called off after the intervention of Tony Abbott – which would seem to be rather big of him, as Gambaro had been one of his most vocal critics. The putative challenger was Trevor Evans, chief executive of the National Retail Association and chief-of-staff and campaign director to Peter Dutton during 2010, who was said by an LNP source quoted by Atfield to have “had the numbers”. Not only has Evans been persuaded not to run, he will also serve as Gambaro’s campaign manager.

• The winner of a Tasmanian Greens vote to choose a Senate successor to Christine Milne will be announced today, and the Launceston Examiner for one deems that the party’s former state leader, Nick McKim, is “heavily favoured” to emerge the winner from a field of about ten. Milne has not yet set a date for her departure, but in the final week of the last parliamentary sitting she gave what she said was to be her final Senate speech, so presumably it will be soon. The Greens preselection process has been covered in very great detail by local observer Kevin Bonham.

• Two dubious claims of internal polling to relate, if only because I didn’t want the above items to look lonely. Speaking on Sky News earlier this month, Victorian Liberal Party state president Michael Kroger claimed that “current polling” had support for Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania in the low twenties. The CFMEU also claims polling it has conducted finds a “Nick Xenophon-backed candidate” in Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt would poll 38% of the primary vote, compared with 30.8% for Pyne and 17.4% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. As MSM focus on Kill Bill (temporary distraction of Kill Bronnie), it’s Abbott’s tenure that is really at risk.

    Joyce turning on Abbott, BBishop turning on Hockey & JBishop, JBishop & Morrison turning on BBishop, Turnbull sending up BBishop…

    And they told us Labor was a divided rabble

  2. [Debris that appears to be from a large plane has reportedly been found off the east coast of Africa, raising the possibility it could be from missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
    The Boeing 777 aircraft went missing on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in March, 2014, with 239 passengers and crew onboard.]

    Read more:

  3. Andrew

    Short answer, Yep!

    Rabbott needs a distraction as the Choppergate continues to roll on instead of abating.

    I’m off..

  4. I think the opportunity for Abbott to make any political capital out of this is well and truly over.

    He spends millions of dollars, claims to have located the “possible” resting place several times, and has nothing to show for it.

    Now the wreckage is found “naturally”, in a place far from where he spent millions looking, at a time far distant from the date of the incidence, and with the drama of the tragedy very much dissipated from the public mind.

    If anything, it will highlight his impotence once again.

    Perhaps for once the victims of this tragedy will be left to grieve with dignity and in peace.

  5. With the next set of polls it will be interesting to see what happens with the greens PV ,I don’t think anyone could predict what will happen

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Lenore Taylor says Bronny’s future will be decided by the media rather than parliamentary scrutiny.
    And Michelle Grattan wonders how Abbott will defend Bonny if she’s still in the job when parliament resumes.
    Right on time – a unicorn!
    “View from the Street” covers the SSM debate and Bronny Bishop, super spy.–superspy-20150729-gin5zf.html
    Secrecy and costs are threatening TPPs.
    Peter FitzSimons piles into The Parrott and its acolytes over the Adam Goodes situation.
    It seems Paul Sheehan is one of them.
    How the AFL has failed Adam Goodes.
    Van Badham says that the ALP’s AS policy is by no means the same as the government’s
    Do we have a “Stephen Dank” of the horse racing world now?

  7. Section 2 . . .

    We have some disgusting individuals living amongst us.
    And some of them we assist through generous taxation treatment!
    Government ministers say that Bronny is doing “massive harm”.
    It includes a nice little cartoon from Ron Tandberg.

    With all that is wrong with this country all we hear about is “boats”.
    Fairfax is getting more and more on Kevin Andrews. Is there an interesting parallel to the $40000 Bill Shorten issue here?
    South Australia is set to take another step to crack down on outlaw bikie gangs.
    The winners and losers in the “trolley wars”.

  8. citizen@1400

    From the news organisation that brings you the DT front page with those horrible digitally altered political images:

    A POSTER erected on the streets of a small Victorian goldfields town has sparked a war of words about democracy, censorship and public art.

    The poster was plastered on hoardings opposite the public library in Castlemaine, not far from Bendigo, in March. The artwork was commissioned by the local council.

    It features a black and white photograph of Prime Minister Tony Abbott and the words “Australia Needs an Abbott Proof Fence”.

    It was put there by art students from Castlemaine Secondary College who had been studying the film Rabbit Proof Fence, the Bendigo Advertiser reports.

    The students expected it to create some discussion, but never expected it to lead to calls for teachers to be dismissed.

    I often see the Obama-esque poster of Abbott with the caption “HOPELESS” all around Melbourne, including one in the blue-ribbon area of Glenferrie Road in Malvern. It’s been sitting there for a few months untouched.

  9. Morning all. Thanks BK. To answer your question, we have lots of Stephen Danks in the horse racing world. Racing stewards fight a never ending battle against horse dopers. Depending on the betting markets, some try to make certain horses faster, others slower.

  10. From the AFR

    [Apart from Christopher Pyne, no one in the Coalition would back Ms Bishop, who can only be removed by resigning or losing a no-confidence motion.

    “It’s bad,” said one minister who asked not to be identified but who thought Mrs Bishop should step aside.

    “We can’t move, we can’t do anything. Our friends are joking about it, people who like us are laughing about it, people who hate us are smashing us.

    “She’s made our life miserable but I wouldn’t bet money on her going.”]

  11. The poll aggregate reflects what we all know following Choppergate. It will be interesting to see how it affects Abbott’s standing both with voters and with backbenchers. Putting Bronwyn “on probation” means no punishment at all, making Abbott look weak. It is also looking like costing some backbenchers their jobs.

    The State by State figures really are remarkable. At this point the only person keeping Abbott in office is Mike Baird. The ant-Liberal swing in NSW (-3%) is less than half the swing in other mainland state (-6.1 to -7.9). I doubt that is due to the charm of Abbott, Hockey and Bronwyn, three North Sydney locals. Without NSW Abbott would be facing a heavy first term defeat.

  12. From Lenore Taylor’s article:

    [Madam Speaker herself, a warrior if there ever was one, reinforced the message of defiance with a blunt four-word statement “the Speaker is not resigning”.]

    I’ve got two words for Lenore: “Learn to count”.

  13. morning all

    debris found off the east coast of Africa may be MH370. Poor ole Abbott. We spent millions looking in the wrong spot!!

  14. Jolyon

    Maybe the speaker gave a blunter four word reply that translated to “the speaker was not resigning”.

    Regarding MH370, while Abbott has milked it shamelessly, it is hardly his fault. The real blame lies with the Malaysians, not coming clean till too late, before ocean currents had moved wreckage.

  15. fess

    Havent heard it. Speaking of Alan jones. The big mouth went on a rant about Adam Goodes yesterday. I only heard one small part of what he said and that was enough for me. Anyhoo. I watch show called 360 on foxtel hosted by Gerard Whateley and Mark Robinson chielf football writer for the Herald Sun. Whilst Robbo as he is known, gives me the pips. Last night he got a gold star. He said wtte that he despised Alan jones and everything he stands for

  16. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 3m3 minutes ago
    This is a desperate attempt to use a belated apology purely to save her job. Frankly, three weeks on, it’s embarrassingly self serving]

  17. All the BB issue reinforces to the public is that Abbott is impotent – the narrative of his inability to manage continues.

    Worst PM ever!

  18. The yanks wheeled MH370 out of a hangar on Diego Garcia, sliced off a wing, lobbed it into the sea and returned MH370 into the hangar.

  19. ABC website “breaking news” says Bronnie apologises for letting down Australian people but won’t resign; will repay all money she spent attending weddings.

    She’s applying a massive amount of Araldite to her rear end for when they try to prise her from the speaker’s chair.

  20. Coal could have prevented the spread of the Ebola virus. Coal, the magic ingredient for survival :/

    [The World Bank said coal was no cure for global poverty on Wednesday, rejecting a main industry argument for building new fossil fuel projects in developing countries.

    In a rebuff to coal, oil and gas companies, Rachel Kyte, the World Bank climate change envoy, said continued use of coal was exacting a heavy cost on some of the world’s poorest countries, in local health impacts as well as climate change, which is imposing even graver consequences on the developing world.

    “In general globally we need to wean ourselves off coal,” Kyte told an event in Washington hosted by the New Republic and the Center for American Progress. “There is a huge social cost to coal and a huge social cost to fossil fuels … if you want to be able to breathe clean air.”

    Coal, oil and gas companies have pushed back against efforts to fight climate change by arguing fossil fuels are a cure to “energy poverty”, which is holding back developing countries.

    Peabody Energy, the world’s biggest privately held coal company, went so far as to claim that coal would have prevented the spread of the Ebola virus.]

  21. [shellbell

    Posted Thursday, July 30, 2015 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    The yanks wheeled MH370 out of a hangar on Diego Garcia, sliced off a wing, lobbed it into the sea and returned MH370 into the hangar.]

    Around five hundred days of drift at, say, around 100 k per day, means that the plane could have gone down anywhere in the Indian Ocean.

    My wild guess is the Indian ocean gyre, starting off heading north north east from off western Australia skirting south of Diego Garcia then south west towards Reunion.

    All we know for sure is that BBishop was not aboard MH370.

  22. It’s quite disgusting how people like Abbott, Morrison and Bronnie use the Alan Jones show to convey messages to the the Australian people.

    She needs to face a full media conference with the doors locked so she cannot escape the questioning.

  23. The ABC tweets do not indicate what Kennett said re Abbott. Wtte that this issue has nothing to do with Abbott. It is a Bronnie issue. Abbott is as loyal as they come and it is a quality Kennett admires. Vomit….

  24. [3AW Melbourne
    3AW Melbourne – Verified account ‏@3AW693

    NEIL MITCHELL: I’m not convinced Bronwyn Bishop gets it. I think she should go, and soon.
    3:37 PM – 29 Jul 2015]

  25. After this very belated and obviously forced apology from BB the report from the departmental investigation into the matter will be very interesting.

    If it totally exonerates her, it will be seen to be rigged and will make matters even worse for both her and Abbott. The obvious question will then be – well what is she apologising for? On the other hand , if it finds she DID dud the taxpayers, the calls for it to be referred to the AFP will intensify. Either way, the pressure continues.

    I notice that for all her grovelling this morning, she still managed to come up with an excuse for using the helicopter. She said wtte that it was the only way she could get there on time. Somehow I don’t think that will fly (pun intended).

  26. Saw this on twitter. Somewhat optimistic. 😀

    [straya maaaate
    straya maaaate – ‏@strayamaaaate

    Abbott forces Bronwyn Bishop to apologise-numbers being done to roll him Aug 10.Within 2 weeks we’ll have a new PM & speaker Yeehah! #auspol]

  27. [Stephen Koukoulas
    Stephen Koukoulas – Verified account ‏@TheKouk

    I reckon Labor popping champagne corks (or at least opening a cheeky Australian sparkling wine) given BBishop’s decision to stay on.]

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