Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Only incremental change this week from Essential Research, which also produces relatively encouraging news for both leaders on their standing against leadership alternatives from their own parties.

The latest reading of the fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens up one to a three-year high of 12%. Also:

• The highlight of the supplementary questions relates to favoured leaders of the major parties, a question last run at Tony Abbott’s low-point in February. He’s improved since then from 11% to 18%, and in doing so moved past Julie Bishop, who is down from 21% and 17% – a result that was reflected in a recent Morgan poll, and had some of us wondering if there was a name recognition issue with Bronwyn Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead at a steady 24%, but Abbott leads 41-21 among Coalition voters. The Labor results are a lot better for Bill Shorten than Morgan’s, putting him narrowly in front with 16% compared with 13% for Tanya Plibersek and 12% for Anthony Albanese. However, the uncommitted ratings for the Labor question are particularly high – 18% “someone else” and 36% “don’t know”, compared with 13% and 22% for the Liberals.

• A “biggest threats to the world” question has terrorism, global economic stability and climate change leading a field of seven on 61%, 51% and 38%. With the question changed to “biggest threats to the Australia”, the respective numbers are 47%, 55% and 38%.

• A question on the importance of the asylum seeker issue has 37% rating it “quite important but not as important as other stories”, 29% as “one of the most important issues” and 7% as “the most important issue”, without too much variation by voting intention or in comparison with the last such result from June 2013. Ten per cent think it not very important, and 9% not at all important. The Liberals are rated the best party to handle it by 37% with Labor on 12% and the Greens on 8%, which again is much the same as the June 2013 result.

• Labor’s policy for a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 has 65% approval and 16% disapproval, although 51% expect it will lead to higher costs, compared with 18% for lower costs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 19
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  1. BB

    [I thought I was “out there” with my several posts recently on MH-370′s possible fate. At least MH-370′s in the news.]

    You’re correct – you are “out there”. In fact, “out there” is an understatement. Like most conspiracy theories, this MH370 Diego Garcia conspiracy theory is complete horseshit. Even the poor barnacle scientists are being dragged in by the heels, as alleged puppets of the US military.

  2. Check out the space pic!

    [Super Typhoon Soudelor, the most powerful storm so far this year, is generating waves of close to 15 metres as it barrels towards Taiwan.
    Sustained winds were last calculated at 130 knots (241km/h), with gusts reaching 160 knots (296km/h), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/super-typhoon-soudelor-stirs-monster-waves-powerful-thunderstorms-20150805-girx77.html#ixzz3hv62drCp

  3. guytaur – keep thinking that irrelevant, undisputed facts have any impact on the point I was making if you like. I can’t make it any clearer for you than I already have, which is why as far as I’m concerned the discussion is over. You’re arguing against a point I never made with facts that aren’t relevant to the discussion being had, because you feel slighted that your choice of brand isn’t sufficiently respected.

    It’s pointless, and I’m ending it.

  4. [ Bushfire Bill

    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    I thought I was “out there” with my several posts recently on MH-370′s possible fate. At least MH-370′s in the news.

    But an “Apple v. Windows” fanboyz flame war?
    ]

    …. I think Edward Snowden has blown the pretence of ‘security’ and what NSA has on all of us/whenever it wants ….

  5. Ctar

    To be a bit clearer. I don’t even use the gym parts of the health apps and do not have a health wristband for the gym.

    So I don’t use those apps at all.

  6. [To be a bit clearer. I don’t even use the gym parts of the health apps and do not have a health wristband for the gym.]

    I choose not to have a ‘smart phone’ at all.

  7. TD

    You keep denying the reality by saying deluded fan boy when a fact is pointed out to you.

    Not just by me either. As I said if you can’t understand the difference that’s your problem.

    For more detail I suggest you read some Cnet articles or Boing Boing articles on why Apple is currently has more privacy than the others.

    As phoenix points out this is not saying much really. However it is more privacy rather than less privacy.

  9. [ CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    I choose not to have a ‘smart phone’ at all.
    ]

    *Smart* Thinking, 99 …

  11. I have just wasted an hour trying to create a myGov account with Centrelink. Fail. First, it won’t accept anything except a mobile phone number (what do the poor people do?). Then it won’t accept the password I created. Says it’s the wrong password. Wot!! Then I tried to phone them. Engaged.

    All I want to do is get them to send me a bloody form so that I can update my record. I suppose the next thing that will happen is that I’ll get charged for not submitting the form (and no, I don’t know its name, otherwise I’d download it).

  18. [ lizzie

    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    I have just wasted an hour trying to create a myGov account with Centrelink. Fail. First, it won’t accept anything except a mobile phone number (what do the poor people do?). Then it won’t accept the password I created. Says it’s the wrong password. Wot!! Then I tried to phone them. Engaged.

    All I want to do is get them to send me a bloody form so that I can update my record. I suppose the next thing that will happen is that I’ll get charged for not submitting the form (and no, I don’t know its name, otherwise I’d download it).
    ]

    …. get Guytaur to do it on his faultless Apple for you 🙂

  20. phoenix

    My sister gave me her discard I-phone. It immediately wanted to connect to my car via blue tooth. The benefit put forward was to be able to do ‘hands free’ phone conservations. I stopped that.

    After a week I backed it up and then took to the SQLite DB.

    It had far to much info in it. Mostly records of ‘home to shops’ and all messaging etc but very ‘1984’.

    So back to an old $50 Nokia that just does phone call and SMS.

  21. [kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 4:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Tony Abbott is ‘a pointless prime minister’, says Peter Hartcher. http://ow.ly/QvlqJ #auspol

    In other news, zoologists have discovered that bears do indeed shit in the woods.]

    I think the bears have already admitted that in a recent ad I saw on TV. 🙂

  22. phoenix

    Apple is not faultless. Just a little better on the privacy than the other two platforms. Its not a biggie just nice when facts are acknowledged.

    Facts and not being called a deluded fool for pointing out this fact.

    Posts like yours implying otherwise say a lot about you. Learn about this point for yourself.

  25. [ CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    phoenix

    So back to an old $50 Nokia that just does phone call and SMS.]

    … my uncle dropped his old Nokia 3310 out from his work crane at 30 metres up ….went down, picked it up and dialled home ….. try that with an iphone/galaxy etc etc ….

  26. [ this MH370 Diego Garcia conspiracy theory is complete horseshit. ]

    kakuru, i wouldn’t go so far as to say that it is “complete horseshit”.

    To the best of my knowledge no-one has come up with an explanation as to why the pilot had such a sophisticated sim that included DG. Maybe it was just him trying to point people towards an involvement with DG that never happened? I dont know.

    I found it difficult to believe that it could have been a shoot down and no wreckage turn up before now. Look at the MH17 incident. The aircraft shattered and lots of debris over a wide area. And a lot of that would float for a long time.

    But now stuff is turning up and it appears that a real issue is the people where its turning up not recognising it.

    Honestly, i think the DG / shootdown “theory” has some measure of plausibility on the current state of knowledge. But so do other theories with the most likely being the dopey bugger flew it into the drink somewhere in the southern indian ocean when the fuel ran out.

  30. imacca – the explanation for the pilot having DG on his flight sim could be as simple as him enjoying being able to visit air strips on his simulator that he couldn’t in real life. He may well have had Area 51 on there too!

    The problem with the DG theory has always been very simple – the data from the satellite handshakes doesn’t fit the course the plane would have needed to go on to get there. Now, obviously the data could be faked but the publically available information just doesn’t support the theory at all.

  31. phoenix

    My nephew has a personal I-Phone and a work one.

    The screens are perpetually cracked no matter how many times they are replaced.

    One drop on a hard surface is all it takes.

  32. [ guytaur

    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    phoenix

    Posts like yours implying otherwise say a lot about you. Learn about this point for yourself.

    ]

    Endlessley posting out posts 24+++ hours a frigging day on PollBludger ad nauseam, criticising/rubbishing what ANYONE else has to say beyond YOUR view point on life says more about you …. you need to get off here for a while and find out more about the REAL world instead of your closeted view of what others think of your pontifiacations and testiments from MOUNT GUYTAUR ….

  34. [ Now, obviously the data could be faked but the publically available information just doesn’t support the theory at all. ]

    Agreed. And to argument around this loss becomes one of those “well of course they would say that” type discussions. 🙂

    I’m just staying open minded at the moment.

  39. phoenix

    [Endlessley posting out posts 24+++ hours a frigging day ]

    The frequency of posts and an inability to accept that others may not agree border on bullying.

  40. [Should more be done to support solar projects like Bulli Creek?
    Current Results
    Yes – 87%

    No – 12%]

    [A SOLAR giant from the United States has been announced as the co-developer of a mega solar project in the Toowoomba region.

    Solar Choice is building the two gigawatt Bulli Creek solar farm just south of Millmerran, with SunEdison yesterday announced as the project’s co-developer.

    SunEdison is one of the world’s largest developers of large-scale solar plants.

    The Bulli Creek project received planning approval in February this year from Toowoomba Regional Council with construction planned to start mid-2016.]

    http://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/global-player-help-build-toowoomba-region-solar-fa/2730139/

  42. cobberdig

    See, the point is that I don’t know the name of the form and I would like to talk to a human bean. Looks like a long drive to the Centrelink office and wait in a queue for an hour or two.

  43. phoenix

    How much I post here is up to me. Unless William says otherwise.

    There is no MOUNT GUYTAUR

    I suggest you look at yourself instead of attacking me in a personal way. As you are doing with your mention of how often I post and what you think it means about my life.

  44. Not to fan the Apple windows war, a simple statistic

    Windows 7 is a 6 year old operating system used by 65% of PC ( non Apple ) users

    It’s a dinasour.
    If it makes people happy to use an old product because it’s better than the last 3 upgrades go for it.

  46. Display Name

    [What horrible, slanderous lies. Bears use the public facilities provided just like any other civilised creature.]

    As does Alan Jones. So not every such creature is civilized.

  47. The pointless Prime Minister…

    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm 2m2 minutes ago

    Frank Quinlan, @MentalHealth_AU: “We really face a very sig. crisis in mental health and… face a very significant disruption in services.”

  48. teh_drewski

    [Now, obviously the data could be faked but the publically available information just doesn’t support the theory at all.]

    That’s never killed a conspiracy theory yet.

  49. [ guytaur

    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    phoenix

    How much I post here is up to me. Unless William says otherwise.

    There is no MOUNT GUYTAUR

    I suggest you look at yourself instead of attacking me in a personal way. As you are doing with your mention of how often I post and what you think it means about my life.
    ]

    …. there you go, you just exquisitely proved my point – you just HAVE to have the last word …

    ….. well Good Luck and GoodBye to you, Guytaur …. have a HAPPY LIFE ….

  50. sceptic – the flipside of that would be that when you’ve got something that works perfectly well, there’s no point changing it just because there’s something newer available, much as that damages the profits of those companies who exist purely to sell you the latest and greatest version of exactly the same thing…

    But I realise that actually expecting hardware and software to perform their function for longer than 18 months is pretty antiquated in the modern world. Maybe that’s why Microsoft are so out of touch – they forgot to deliberately break their old products.

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