Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Only incremental change this week from Essential Research, which also produces relatively encouraging news for both leaders on their standing against leadership alternatives from their own parties.

The latest reading of the fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens up one to a three-year high of 12%. Also:

• The highlight of the supplementary questions relates to favoured leaders of the major parties, a question last run at Tony Abbott’s low-point in February. He’s improved since then from 11% to 18%, and in doing so moved past Julie Bishop, who is down from 21% and 17% – a result that was reflected in a recent Morgan poll, and had some of us wondering if there was a name recognition issue with Bronwyn Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead at a steady 24%, but Abbott leads 41-21 among Coalition voters. The Labor results are a lot better for Bill Shorten than Morgan’s, putting him narrowly in front with 16% compared with 13% for Tanya Plibersek and 12% for Anthony Albanese. However, the uncommitted ratings for the Labor question are particularly high – 18% “someone else” and 36% “don’t know”, compared with 13% and 22% for the Liberals.

• A “biggest threats to the world” question has terrorism, global economic stability and climate change leading a field of seven on 61%, 51% and 38%. With the question changed to “biggest threats to the Australia”, the respective numbers are 47%, 55% and 38%.

• A question on the importance of the asylum seeker issue has 37% rating it “quite important but not as important as other stories”, 29% as “one of the most important issues” and 7% as “the most important issue”, without too much variation by voting intention or in comparison with the last such result from June 2013. Ten per cent think it not very important, and 9% not at all important. The Liberals are rated the best party to handle it by 37% with Labor on 12% and the Greens on 8%, which again is much the same as the June 2013 result.

• Labor’s policy for a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 has 65% approval and 16% disapproval, although 51% expect it will lead to higher costs, compared with 18% for lower costs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 19
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  1. RE: Apple and Android in the corporate environment.

    Having migrated from Blackberry to Apple at my work, I miss some of the security features Blackberry had. Unfortunately, Blackberry has fallen behind in terms of other features and stability in their phones and this had led to them dropping far behind in market presence.

    Apple iOS in its raw form weren’t suitable for our needs, until the incorporation of third party tools like Airwatch, which was godsent really.

    I believe Airwatch has been updated to the point that it is now supported by iOS, Android and Windows OS, and are very stable and security conscious in iOS and Android. With it, you can use it to wipe the devices remotely and enforce locking and manipulating of where data travels.

    In terms of privacy, do note both Apple and Google monitor your data for their own corporate interests, but I like how third party developers like CyanogenMod has broken away the Android platform to allow it to be more open and secure at the same time (the irony!).

    The location setting on CyanogenMod devices, for example, can be set so that it is completely only using GPS/Glossnas, rather than asking Google for pinpoint location determination.

  2. phoenix

    You just proved my point to. Last word or not. You have just done a full on personal attack.

    Nothing else to describe it and I hope Wiliam takes note of your personal attack.

  3. Things are hectic in SA with the health system. My mother was back in an emergency department today and was admitted. She will be shifted to another hospital where she secured the last bed available IN THE STATE! It’s way out in Elizabeth. Port Lincoln was in the mix for a while.
    We have gridlock.

  4. Ch10 news predictably opened with Tony Burke but soon morphed into the theme of pollies wanting to avoid ‘mutual destruction’ and Bronnie’s retirement pension and 10 free plane trips a year.

    Now that Bronnie is virtually gone, the story of MP travel seems to be losing momentum in the media and all MPs have presumably been told to keep quiet.

  5. Bushfire Bill@698

    Withut wishing to make a cheap pun, I DO think that Apples are namby-pamby “Green” things, while REAL men use Windows.

    Anyone can use Apples. Greens always take the easy way out.

    But you need real strength, true grit, and persistence, plus a lotta luck, to use Windows.

    Ah, you can expect someone like you to politicise the preference of OS. I use the Windows a lot of course for work, but a hobbyist at Linux and occasionally have some clients use them on the server side of things. Not sure what anyone’s political preference have to do with it.

    And I don’t understand why many retail businesses out there feel the need to use Apple machines if only to show off, when you can clearly see what they use on their screen are web based applications for their business tools.

    I can understand design studios and artists, but not the majority of businesses I see on Glenferrie Road.

  6. Raaraa

    Thats the marketing part of the business. Marketing thinking Apple design is cool and hip. So when things are equal they will use Apple computers for showing off.

    This despite the fact there are some good designs in other computer brands too.

  7. guytaur@689

    TD

    Wrong again. I was not talking about Apps. I was talking about the sharing required for apps to work.

    These are the default settings you are talking about. Change the defaults and apps stop working as sharing is reduced.

    I don’t know which side of the argument you’re on, but on the corporate environment, companies have the option to bypass the app store to implement the apps they need. Apple uses a corporate license to allow installation of third-party APKs and Android allows the use of Developer only settings to allow the third party installation of APKs.

  8. BK, it is good that your mother managed to obtain a bed.

    The SMH today has a story about the dire situation at emergency departments in Sydney. It is something that is definitely not going to be fixed by cutting funding.

  9. BK@753

    Things are hectic in SA with the health system. My mother was back in an emergency department today and was admitted. She will be shifted to another hospital where she secured the last bed available IN THE STATE! It’s way out in Elizabeth. Port Lincoln was in the mix for a while.
    We have gridlock.

    BK, that is terrible. Assigning blame is probably pointless, because although the state (SA) is responsible for the hospitals (as I understand it) the state is dependent on the federal government for funds I think.

    Very glad that your mum got a bed, but what about the next person in line?

    To me, this looks like not a state, but a national emergency. What is going on here? Somebody on PB who can work out things like that, what is going on here?

    BK, if you think it is necessary, for goodness sake take a break from the morning roundup of links. You have a lot on your plate, you don’t need any extra stress.

    Everyone is wishing you and your family well at a difficult time.

  10. Raaraa

    I am not going to go back over it. Suffice to say I did not know about the corporate license. However it does make sense in having to get business away from Blackberry who did have the corporations business.

  11. guytaur@707

    TD

    You keep denying the reality by saying deluded fan boy when a fact is pointed out to you.

    Not just by me either. As I said if you can’t understand the difference that’s your problem.

    For more detail I suggest you read some Cnet articles or Boing Boing articles on why Apple is currently has more privacy than the others.

    As phoenix points out this is not saying much really. However it is more privacy rather than less privacy.

    No matter how secure a platform is, regardless of which OS you use, it is nullified by the apps you install, some of which blatantly violate simple privacy through sheer laziness of the users.

  12. BK

    I agree with don completely. I hope things work out.

    NSW has a similar problem it was on the news a week or two ago. So bad the paramedics were thinking about taking strike action to get something done.

  13. lizzie@711

    I have just wasted an hour trying to create a myGov account with Centrelink. Fail. First, it won’t accept anything except a mobile phone number (what do the poor people do?). Then it won’t accept the password I created. Says it’s the wrong password. Wot!! Then I tried to phone them. Engaged.

    All I want to do is get them to send me a bloody form so that I can update my record. I suppose the next thing that will happen is that I’ll get charged for not submitting the form (and no, I don’t know its name, otherwise I’d download it).

    Grrrrr.. My medicare account in MyGov still have some claims done by someone else when Medicare somehow misallocated my medicare card number to someone else in another state. They’ve fixed most of it after numerous calls and numerous visits to a Medicare office, but it is still “off”. I’ve given up trying to fix it all.

  14. imacca@726

    this MH370 Diego Garcia conspiracy theory is complete horseshit.


    kakuru, i wouldn’t go so far as to say that it is “complete horseshit”.

    To the best of my knowledge no-one has come up with an explanation as to why the pilot had such a sophisticated sim that included DG. Maybe it was just him trying to point people towards an involvement with DG that never happened? I dont know.

    I found it difficult to believe that it could have been a shoot down and no wreckage turn up before now. Look at the MH17 incident. The aircraft shattered and lots of debris over a wide area. And a lot of that would float for a long time.

    But now stuff is turning up and it appears that a real issue is the people where its turning up not recognising it.

    Honestly, i think the DG / shootdown “theory” has some measure of plausibility on the current state of knowledge. But so do other theories with the most likely being the dopey bugger flew it into the drink somewhere in the southern indian ocean when the fuel ran out.

    Just because you fail to understand how an aircraft can disappear without a shred of evidence into the Indian Ocean does not mean that the next wildest conspiracy theory deserves some merit.

    As armchair aviation experts here, we can simply say, “we do not know”.

  15. don

    Tell Tony to put the frigate money into Hospitals, schools , railways etc at least we will get some be fit out of it.
    With Frigates we get over priced artificial reefs 10 years after launch & more opportunity for RAN sexual abuse

  16. [ Solar Choice is building the two gigawatt Bulli Creek solar farm just south of Millmerran, with SunEdison yesterday announced as the project’s co-developer. ]

    Going to be interesting to watch the concurrent development of Rooftop Solar, these BIG solar projects, and how / if their viability is enhanced by the availability of better battery tech like the Tesla products?

    It may be possible that over the next few decades we are moving towards a situation where the “grid” is “just” something that links a plethora of very de-centralised (and so massively redundant) power production and storage facilities of all shapes and sizes. (i still like waves potential 🙂 )

    There will still be utility service costs as the grid and probably the larger storage nodes will be big investments, but it will open up MUCH more room for renewables to contribute to a reliable 24/7 supply.

  17. CTar1@706

    To be a bit clearer. I don’t even use the gym parts of the health apps and do not have a health wristband for the gym.


    I choose not to have a ‘smart phone’ at all.

    Then you have not tried to find places, to walk from one place to another in a strange city.

    Paper maps don’t cut it.

    Google maps is the app you have to have.

    I just got back from seven weeks in europe going to as many of the major museums in archaeology as I could fit in.

    Without a smartphone, it would have been a nightmare. With it, it was doable, at times enjoyable.

  18. Raaraa

    They’re saying that soon we will only be able to access them through myGov, which was why I tried to do the ‘right thing’ and create an account. But as Medicare and Centrelink are now in the same building (and farther from home) the queues are miles long.

  19. [… this MH370 Diego Garcia conspiracy theory is complete horseshit. Even the poor barnacle scientists are being dragged in by the heels, as alleged puppets of the US military.]

    Another brilliant analysis from Kakaru, citing historical incidents, and drawing upon his deep knowledge of just how all conspiracy theories are crap. All of ’em.

    Kindly explain how…

    * An isolated military base, one of the most secret in the world,

    * In the middle of the Indian Ocean with no protective infrastructure around it like armies or airforces (it’s on its own),

    * Thus forced to defend itself against nuclear attack, terrorist attack, and conventional attack, whether by air or sea or submarine, from hostile forces, by any means possible,

    … does NOT have its own (or several) satellites (secret or otherwise) parked right above it with infrared, ultraviolet, radar and other appropriate sensors, that cover not just the local area, but the entire Indian Ocean (and even that mightn’t give them enough time to respond against a missile attack)… YET it somehow missed a large aircraft, flying relatively slowly, with no stealth features whatsoever, that was in its patch for hours.

    Not a blip. Not a whimper. Not an open microphone. Nothing.

    Do the punters think that they just sit there waiting for a threat to appear on the horizon?

    Or, given Diego Garcia’s almost complete isolation in one of the least inhabited parts of the world, do they arm themselves to the teeth with every surveillance device known to man (and some that are not known, at least officially)?

    The former is what we are being asked to believe by the Conventionalists like Kakaru.

    One of a superpower’s most sensitive, isolated, vulnerable, important, valuable bases, one of the first to go in any preemptive strike attack, just “missed” MH-370 altogether?

    That’s where you start wondering how they could have missed that plane. Then you figure in their seeming casualness as to its fate, and then you start wondering about where the REAL horseshit is coming from.

  20. Thanks don
    I don’t find curating the Dawn Patrol a stressful task at all. Rather I look forward to it.
    As for the health system blaming does nothing other than inflame the situation and inhibit change. My view is that the principles of the Theory of Constraints be employed, along with a willingness of all the professions and unions involve to participate in it in order to make the most of the physical and human resources available capacities. We don’t want resources to be inactive or doing things that are well below their particular critical capabilities.

  21. [I hope Wiliam takes note of your personal attack.]

    I doubt it. William’s odd menagerie of political, cultural and historical preoccupations preclude him from taking that much notice of our bullshit.

  22. kakuru
    [As does Alan Jones. So not every such creature is civilized.]
    Yes, I know my logic too and that a -> b ⊬ b -> a. No worries there.

  23. Always trying to keep,up with the main game, the Greens have joined in the “rorting roundabout”

    [WA Greens senator Scott Ludlam spent $11,136 chartering a flight at taxpayers’ expense to get to Wiluna where he attended an anti-nuclear protest.

    But the party’s co-deputy leader defended the cost, saying the main purpose of his three-day visit in August 2011 was to meet staff of uranium miner Toro Energy and inspect the company’s proposed mine nearby.

    The Greens’ anti-nuclear spokesman also met residents and traditional owners opposed to the project.

    As a WA senator, Senator Ludlam has a $26,490 a year allowance to book charter transport, including flights.

    His return flight between Kalgoorlie and Wiluna coincided with the start of the Walkatjurra Walkabout when about 100 protesters marched from Wiluna to Kalgoorlie and then to Perth to demand an end to uranium mining.

    “We will not rest until this industry finally has been closed down,” he told Parliament after the visit.

    Senator Ludlam toldThe West Australian the cost was quoted on a competitive basis and no commercial flights fitted the schedule.

    “I wouldn’t really characterise the purpose of the trip as a protest, more as a site visit with Toro staff and a series of meetings … with local people,” he said.

    He said rather than dealing with regional issues from Fremantle, site visits, including to far-flung areas, were essential.

    WA Greens MLC Robin Chapple, a staff member, a journalist, a conservationist, a lawyer and a hydrologist flew with him, but were not asked to pay.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-defends-claims-for-ironman-expenses-also-nominated-for-ernie-awards/story-e6frfkp9-1226734686200

  24. don – I managed to spend ten months in Europe without a smart phone a few years back, it’s not impossible. You just need to be a little bit more prepared when you go off adventuring (and having a decent sense of direction helps!)

  25. CTar1

    Hunt doesn’t understand anything except keeping in sweet with Tony. He always trots out different excuses for not doing his job for the *environment*.

  26. lizzie@770

    Raaraa

    They’re saying that soon we will only be able to access them through myGov, which was why I tried to do the ‘right thing’ and create an account. But as Medicare and Centrelink are now in the same building (and farther from home) the queues are miles long.

    I’m missing Medicare offices being open on Saturdays. Like they said, they’re trying to get people to go online and use MyGov, which I don’t completely disagree with.

    However, what do I do when somebody actually through some unexplained reason managed to mangle up my online medicare access? I had to spend hours on the phone and at the medicare offices just to half-fix this.

    I had to take time off and also my lunch break to deal with fixing my online records.

    It’s like one of those jokes:

    “Where do I find ?”

    “You are at the wrong department. You have to ask the Information Bureau.”

    “OK, Where’s the Information Bureau?”

    “I don’t know, try asking the Information Bureau.”

  27. BK@753

    Things are hectic in SA with the health system. My mother was back in an emergency department today and was admitted. She will be shifted to another hospital where she secured the last bed available IN THE STATE! It’s way out in Elizabeth. Port Lincoln was in the mix for a while.
    We have gridlock.

    Here’s hoping she gets better soon. All that travelling doesn’t help…

  28. CTaR1

    I suspect that it was SOP involving what was sighted and what not sighted (ergo what the min could reasonably have claimed to have taken into consideration – as he must do, legally -) but that this was the first time it was nitpicked in court.

  29. Raaraa
    As it turns out I can take a scenic drive through the hills and cover the 50 km in 45 minutes – which is about the same time it takes to get to Adelaide let alone finding a park!

  30. Meanwhile, out in Jacksonville…
    [A police anti-corruption taskforce is investigating the possibility that a secretive $250,000 payment from the Peter MacCallum cancer hospital to Kathy Jackson’s old union in 2003 was a bribe.

    Fairfax Media understands that a joint police Taskforce Heracles, which was set up by as part of the Royal Commission into union corruption, has interviewed health industry figures with knowledge of the 2003 deal between the hospital and Health Services Union.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/kathy-jackson-and-cancer-hospital-both-investigated-on-suspicion-of-bribery-20150804-gir0r1.html#ixzz3hvRJlONc

  31. BB

    That is a very interesting post.

    The US reported almost straight away how, where and when MH17 was downed.

    In fact, the US probably knew BEFORE Putin did.

  32. Don

    [Then you have not tried to find places, to walk from one place to another in a strange city. ]

    You obviously had a list of specific ‘targets’ to attend to – that’s OK.

    I’m more into a general check out and finding out the ambiance of the place.

  33. Windows sucks …Apple is fast/reliable/virus free/easier to use/better image resolution/videos perfect/has never failed/simply the best..

    Those who move from Windows to Apple never go back..

  34. To my mind, the Libs’ tactic of focusing on Burkes expenses is a tactical error – it takes the focus off Abbott’s attempts to set the narrative in the SA a Cabinet sojourn.

  35. BB

    [One of a superpower’s most sensitive, isolated, vulnerable, important, valuable bases, one of the first to go in any preemptive strike attack, just “missed” MH-370 altogether?]

    I’m not an expert; nor do I pretend to be one. But I’ve been reliably informed by a fellow ‘conventionalist’ (= non-conspiracy-theorist) that ground-based primary radar can only see about 15-300 km because of the curvature of the earth. The long range early warning systems at DG are intended to detect ballistic missiles far above the atmosphere, not flights within the atmosphere. D G is too far away to have had any sighting of MH370.

  36. BB

    [One of a superpower’s most sensitive, isolated, vulnerable, important, valuable bases, one of the first to go in any preemptive strike attack, just “missed” MH-370 altogether?]

    Yip.

  37. [That’s where you start wondering how they could have missed that plane. Then you figure in their seeming casualness as to its fate, and then you start wondering about where the REAL horseshit is coming from.]

    Mmmmmm….

    [Pine Gap controls a set of geostationary satellites positioned above the Indian Ocean and Indonesia. These orbit the Earth at a fixed point above the equator and are able to locate the origin of radio signals to within as little as 10 metres. Pine Gap processes the data and can provide targeting information to US and allied military units within minutes]

    But..apparently there are ‘blackspots’ or ‘gaps’

    [And he reveals the huge gaps in radar coverage across Australia and its waters. Could they allow a hostile aircraft to approach with little warning?] SBS

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