Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Only incremental change this week from Essential Research, which also produces relatively encouraging news for both leaders on their standing against leadership alternatives from their own parties.

The latest reading of the fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens up one to a three-year high of 12%. Also:

• The highlight of the supplementary questions relates to favoured leaders of the major parties, a question last run at Tony Abbott’s low-point in February. He’s improved since then from 11% to 18%, and in doing so moved past Julie Bishop, who is down from 21% and 17% – a result that was reflected in a recent Morgan poll, and had some of us wondering if there was a name recognition issue with Bronwyn Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead at a steady 24%, but Abbott leads 41-21 among Coalition voters. The Labor results are a lot better for Bill Shorten than Morgan’s, putting him narrowly in front with 16% compared with 13% for Tanya Plibersek and 12% for Anthony Albanese. However, the uncommitted ratings for the Labor question are particularly high – 18% “someone else” and 36% “don’t know”, compared with 13% and 22% for the Liberals.

• A “biggest threats to the world” question has terrorism, global economic stability and climate change leading a field of seven on 61%, 51% and 38%. With the question changed to “biggest threats to the Australia”, the respective numbers are 47%, 55% and 38%.

• A question on the importance of the asylum seeker issue has 37% rating it “quite important but not as important as other stories”, 29% as “one of the most important issues” and 7% as “the most important issue”, without too much variation by voting intention or in comparison with the last such result from June 2013. Ten per cent think it not very important, and 9% not at all important. The Liberals are rated the best party to handle it by 37% with Labor on 12% and the Greens on 8%, which again is much the same as the June 2013 result.

• Labor’s policy for a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 has 65% approval and 16% disapproval, although 51% expect it will lead to higher costs, compared with 18% for lower costs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. @sprocket_/798

    Yup Murdoch/Media/Libs promoting new leadership.

    Giving him a softy touch after the ‘being tough’ on AS and Disabled Pensioners.

  3. [Pine Gap controls a set of geostationary satellites positioned above the Indian Ocean and Indonesia. ]

    Pine Gap is old technology.

    It’s satellites only keep what they’ve been asked to keep. Too much other stuff overwhelms the ability to analyse the content.

    General radio communications are likely out of its scope.

  5. CTar1@788

    Don

    Then you have not tried to find places, to walk from one place to another in a strange city.


    You obviously had a list of specific ‘targets’ to attend to – that’s OK.

    I’m more into a general check out and finding out the ambiance of the place.

    Then you don’t need a map.

    Wherever you end up is fine.

    But good luck finding your hotel again!

    I bought an iphone specifically for this seven week trip through Germany, Austria, London and France, I got back a week or two ago. Previously I had a brick.

    I have made many trips to Europe and Canada, and have never needed one – we used paper maps for the bike ride down the Danube from the source to Budapest, and from Amsterdam to Copenhagen, and from Cologne to the Black Forest up the Rhine, and I used paper maps for driving to various archaeological sites in France during the summers of 2008 and 2014, as well as in Canada in 2000 and 2012.

    But get dumped in a city, relying on public transport, and have to find particular museums, or your hotel after the visit, and a smartphone makes life very much easier.

    Whether others choose to do that is of no concern to me. Go for it.

  7. kakuru@792

    The long range early warning systems at DG are intended to detect ballistic missiles far above the atmosphere, not flights within the atmosphere. D G is too far away to have had any sighting of MH370.

    And you are seriously suggesting that they don’t have any method of detecting incoming low flying aircraft?

    Nobody thought of that at DG?

    They just sit there hoping nobody sends in an (updated) Japanese pearl harbor style fleet of aircraft to bomb them out of existence?

    Come now.

    The US is paranoid about security, and you are talking about Diego Garcia. They don’t leave that sort of thing to chance. It has been wargamed to death.

  11. [I can understand design studios and artists, but not the majority of businesses I see on Glenferrie Road.]

    I use mainly Blender, Reaper and Photoshop, which all love lots of processing power, and by far the cheapest way to get that is on a desktop PC.

    Everything was working fine on Win 7, and still is after upgrading to win 10. I just had to reinstall my Boutique (and always “difficult”) sound card.

    I have a tablet for slobbing about with, but much prefer a desktop as soon as I’m “doing” anything. Dual screens and a mouse make simple work of everything.

  12. Bronnie should be happy to retire. At about $5000 per week she can swan around the social scene for the rest of her life.

    These perks should be revised as well.

  13. Way to go attacking Diego Garcia.

    * Don’t use a missile.

    * Don’t use an afterburner.

    Use a military plane in cruise mode (still probably flying at 1200kph). Fly low to enhance wing-and-ground effect, and then just as you’re about to drop your nuclear bomb, ramp it up, kick in the burner and we have the most important base in the Eastern Hemisphere taken out in a doddle.

    On Diego Garcia, as they sip martinis in the Officers Club, or play baseball on one of the several diamonds provided, or just go for a swim, the first thing they’ll know about Armageddon is… pffft… they’ll be dead before they can even register the image of the explosion.

    Gee, and to think I thought US bases in the middle of nowhere, carrying out God-knows-what secret, classified missions, totally vulnerable from 360 degrees, might have some sort of sophisticated gear to detect threats from way, way far over the horizon, or from military planes disguised as commercial ones. The Russians or the Chinese are too dopey to think of THAT idea.

    Shows how silly I am too.

    All you have to do is have an aircraft that’s not a missile and that doesn’t use an afterburner. Like a commercial aircraft. But they don’t shoot those down despite it being specific US policy after 9/11. The USS Vincennes incident, MH-17 (shot down by the military) and that Korean Airlines disaster were one-offs… except there was three of them.

    Nice to know the Yanks are pretty laid back about the top base being attacked.

  14. [The Jindalee Operational Radar Network, known as JORN, is Australia’s powerful military radar system that has an official range of 3000 kilometres but experts say it’s over-the-horizon-radar system can detect movements across 37,000 square kilometres.]

  15. I imagine Bronnie is of the mindset that resists strongly spending any of her own cash reserves. Probably delays paying the service people, and the hired help, until they start asking their lawyers. Travel is good – if someone else will pay!

  17. phylactella

    She can also emulate some other retired pollies who charge exorbitant prices for lectures. Her lecture on ‘the lifestyle of an unbiased Speaker’ should be extremely popular.

  19. Without wanting to promote any conspiracy theory, Twitter is full of this type of stuff…

    [@WorldOfMarkyD: fresh “missing” fed #Newspoll that NewsCorp are hiding, likely looks like this

    2 party preferred –
    ALP:
    56 (+3)
    Libs/Nats:
    44 (-3)

    #AusPol]

  20. We need to end this forever gravy train once one has been booted from office.

    Pay them well in the job and depending on their position and responsibilities a set pay out figure when they exit.

    That should be the end of it!

  22. Just to weigh in on the Mac PC debate, I’m using Yosemite, scoring 4500 single core on geek bench. Yes, that’s a fair bit quicker than any Apple made computer.

    Some computations are sequential, meaning the number of cores doesn’t speed the task up. For multicore, Apples are great, but they’re using the same technology as high end Intel, so OS speeds are mostly the same.

    But it’s the little things. I haven’t come across a situation on a PC where you can edit a sentence in the middle of your last line on a paragraph where after editing, you can get to the end of the sentence simply by pressing down and then left.

  25. It would be remarkable if the Government was spending hundreds of millions of dollars looking for MH370 off Perth if JORN had detected it going somewhere else.

    Either JORN didn’t pick it up at all (for whatever reason), or it supports the publicly available story, I suspect.

  26. EXACTLY as I predicted:

    ABC TV News reports the allegations against Burke, say that HE “says” they were within entitlement, runs a tape of Abbott rabbiting on about “fixing this once and for all”, and then ends with “Some government MPs have said…” Tony Burke is a rorter (or WTTE).

    Jesus wept.

  27. Just caught a glimpse of ABC News and it seems that the Immigration Dept (Borders?) is so used to clapping secrecy notices on things that material already publicly available is classified. Not a new phenomenon, I don’t think. When tackled by Dreyfus, who was highly amused, the Dept Head said he’d consider discussing it in a closed session.

    Deeep!

  29. [Either JORN didn’t pick it up at all (for whatever reason), or it supports the publicly available story, I suspect.]

    Or it DOESN’T support the official story, hence binned.

  30. This government refuses to take any advice, even to save money.

    Fels on mental health today:

    [The key, he says, is to pour more funds into prevention, which was one of the main recommendations of the commission’s major review of the mental health system handed to the federal government earlier this year.

    The commission recommended that $1bn of commonwealth funding be diverted from acute hospital funding into more community-based and primary health services – a recommendation that was quickly ruled out by the federal health minister, Sussan Ley.

    But Fels believes the government will be forced to put the option, worth just one per cent of the overall hospital budget, back on the table.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/05/government-is-funding-a-mental-health-system-that-is-failing-allan-fels-says

  32. BB – it takes a dedicated conspiracy theorist to think a government would spend $150m+ searching for a plane somewhere that they have data showing it didn’t go.

    It’s not impossible, of course, but it’s pretty unlikely.

  34. ABC news seems to treat Abbott with inordinate and unwarranted respect, and still takes anything he says on face value.
    This goes far beyond the notion that they’re shit scared of the government, more likely that those in key positions are hard core coalition supporters.

  35. Now for something lightweight! 🙂

    [Lenny Kravitz may be known the world over for his music, but now he’s earned an unfortunate reputation for something else.
    During a performance in Stockholm on Monday night, the singer was grooving energetically on stage when he squatted in front of the crowd and ripped his leather pants in half.

    The unfortunate location of the tear revealed everything underneath, including his penchant for not wearing underpants.
    According to local reports, the 51-year-old didn’t immediately realise he had exposed himself in front of the 17,000 people attending his concert.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/music/lenny-kravitz-exposes-himself-after-leather-pants-rip-open-on-stage-20150805-giseju.html#ixzz3hvsDix8M

  36. Display Name@715
    I am an militant agnostic when it comes to both editors and programming languages: ” I don’t know and neither do you!”

    VI is found *always* on every Unix/Linux system, including when booted up in recovery mode. It is easy to use as root on Sudo (Debian) systems, and I suggest it as part of the skill set for all programmers.

    I use emacs in preference if it is available, but using it from the command line requires a good memory for the commands.

    Mostly I use Gedit, or nano or pico . Or whatever seems like a good idea at the time really.

  37. The High Court challenge by Travers Duncan, Eddie Obeid’s mate, to the capacity of the NSW Government to pass retrospective legislation righting some ICAC wrongs pointed out in the Cunneen proceedings was heard today.

    It was meant to be heard over two days. It did not make it to lunch on day one as the judges were ostensibly against Duncan meaning ICAC could say very little.

  38. adrian

    [ ABC news seems to treat Abbott with inordinate and unwarranted respect, and still takes anything he says on face value.
    This goes far beyond the notion that they’re shit scared of the government, more likely that those in key positions are hard core coalition supporters. ]

    Don’t discount the obvious explanation, which is that the ABC has been so gutted by Mark Scott that those who remain are simply the idiots who are too gullible and stupid to get a job elsewhere.

  39. Re Dee @814: 37,000 square kilometres, if it were a circle, would have a radius of only about 109 kilometres, less than half the area of Tasmania

  40. Now I’ve heard everything. Come in spinner!

    [BB – it takes a dedicated conspiracy theorist to think a government would spend $150m+ searching for a plane somewhere that they have data showing it didn’t go.

    It’s not impossible, of course, but it’s pretty unlikely.]

    $150 million is what they spend on spares for one JSF.

    $150 million is what they spend on 1/2 a kilometer of national highway.

    $150 million is what they spend on a couple of hundred metres of North-West Rail Link.

    $150 million wouldn’t have bought the party pies for the G20 gabfest last year.

    In short, $150 million is f*ck-all.

  41. Every time the Libs raise the alleged rorts of ALP Members all they do is remind people of Bronnie and her helicopter.

    That is a total negative for the Government.

    The fact that they are focussed on revenge and nitpicking tells you their minds are not on the things that actually concern the public like jobs, health and education.

    So bring on the revenge Libs. It will only do you harm.

  42. BB – $150m would also pay for the next scheduled upgrade of JORN, which has been put off repeatedly because it’s a low spending priority.

    As I said – it’s a dedicated conspiracy theorist who thinks a government would rather waste $150m looking for something they know isn’t there over, you know, upgrading the thing that gave them that information. Or anything else the government could spend $150m on, such as some tasty electoral bribes in marginal electorates.

    But you are, of course, a very dedicated conspiracy theorist!

  43. Commonwealth Bank says “Bye-bye Adani”.

    [The Commonwealth Bank’s role as adviser to Australia’s biggest coal project, Adani Mining’s proposed Carmichael Mine in Queensland, has ended, dealing a heavy blow to its prospects and a significant victory for environmental groups.
    …
    Fairfax Media has confirmed that Commonwealth Bank’s mandate with the Indian conglomerate Adani had ended, a decision which now casts doubt on the likelihood that Adani will be able to raise the $16 billion required to build Carmichael and the attending infrastructure such as the rail line and the port facilities at Abbot Point on the Great Barrier Reef.

    “As part of Adani’s refocusing of the project on gaining the various outstanding approvals, the financial advisory mandate has ended,” said a spokesperson for the bank.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/adani-and-commonwealth-bank-part-ways-casting-further-doubt-on-carmichael-coal-project-20150805-gisd1l.html ]

    I wish the Commonwealth Bank “Good luck” in getting their fee paid.

  44. In the last half of 2014 Dutton spent over $28,000 on family travel costs…and the right are chasing down Burke.

    It reeks of childish tit-4-tat

  45. [Every time the Libs raise the alleged rorts of ALP Members all they do is remind people of Bronnie and her helicopter.]

    Muddying the waters. While it succeeds in spreading the shit around, all it really achieves is to further erode public trust in elected members.

    A total Abbott strategy.

  46. [The much absent Fair Work Commission vice-president Michael Lawler could be subject to a new wave of complaints following a protest lodged with the federal government that alleges his controversial periods of extended sick leave raise serious doubts about his judgment.

    Employment Minister Eric Abetz has received a formal letter of complaint claiming Mr Lawler made a “very dangerous” decision in April by providing justification for nursing home managers to compel “unqualified and unregistered” staff to administer prescription drugs to residents.

    The decision was issued by Mr Lawler shortly before he started another round of extended sick leave that ended late last month.

    Mr Lawler has taken nine months of sick leave on full pay of $435,000 over the past year. He ­already faces one complaint to the federal government for allegedly belittling an industrial advocate during a conference last year.]

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