Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Only incremental change this week from Essential Research, which also produces relatively encouraging news for both leaders on their standing against leadership alternatives from their own parties.

The latest reading of the fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens up one to a three-year high of 12%. Also:

• The highlight of the supplementary questions relates to favoured leaders of the major parties, a question last run at Tony Abbott’s low-point in February. He’s improved since then from 11% to 18%, and in doing so moved past Julie Bishop, who is down from 21% and 17% – a result that was reflected in a recent Morgan poll, and had some of us wondering if there was a name recognition issue with Bronwyn Bishop. Malcolm Turnbull maintains his lead at a steady 24%, but Abbott leads 41-21 among Coalition voters. The Labor results are a lot better for Bill Shorten than Morgan’s, putting him narrowly in front with 16% compared with 13% for Tanya Plibersek and 12% for Anthony Albanese. However, the uncommitted ratings for the Labor question are particularly high – 18% “someone else” and 36% “don’t know”, compared with 13% and 22% for the Liberals.

• A “biggest threats to the world” question has terrorism, global economic stability and climate change leading a field of seven on 61%, 51% and 38%. With the question changed to “biggest threats to the Australia”, the respective numbers are 47%, 55% and 38%.

• A question on the importance of the asylum seeker issue has 37% rating it “quite important but not as important as other stories”, 29% as “one of the most important issues” and 7% as “the most important issue”, without too much variation by voting intention or in comparison with the last such result from June 2013. Ten per cent think it not very important, and 9% not at all important. The Liberals are rated the best party to handle it by 37% with Labor on 12% and the Greens on 8%, which again is much the same as the June 2013 result.

• Labor’s policy for a 50% renewable energy target by 2030 has 65% approval and 16% disapproval, although 51% expect it will lead to higher costs, compared with 18% for lower costs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. D&M @ 836
    Darn it, where were you earlier when we could have had a rollicking good time alongside our Apple vs MS comrades? 😀

  2. [don

    Posted Wednesday, August 5, 2015 at 6:29 pm | Permalink


    The long range early warning systems at DG are intended to detect ballistic missiles far above the atmosphere, not flights within the atmosphere. D G is too far away to have had any sighting of MH370.

    And you are seriously suggesting that they don’t have any method of detecting incoming low flying aircraft?

    Nobody thought of that at DG?

    They just sit there hoping nobody sends in an (updated) Japanese pearl harbor style fleet of aircraft to bomb them out of existence?

    Come now.

    The US is paranoid about security, and you are talking about Diego Garcia. They don’t leave that sort of thing to chance. It has been wargamed to death.]

    Don your assuming the plane was flying towards DG. If the plane was over 2000km away and not flying towards DG (as indicated from the published Satcom data) then even if there is a system at DG that could detect it the software would probably ignore it.

    The other problem the Satcom data poses for the DG shoot down brigade is that even if you choose to ignore all the analysis to work out the range arcs from the satellite, the fact that the data shows the aircraft flew for more than 7 and a half hours and if it was flown to DG after taking an indirect path it just managed to arrive at the DG outer defences in time to get shot down as it ran out of fuel. Big coincidence. And if they didn’t shoot it down but it ran dry and crashed why would they need to run a cover up.

    I really don’t understand why people feel the need to make up such improbable scenarios. I’m also astounded that other people take them seriously.

  3. [ABC news seems to treat Abbott with inordinate and unwarranted respect, and still takes anything he says on face value.
    This goes far beyond the notion that they’re shit scared of the government, more likely that those in key positions are hard core coalition supporters.]

    Nowadays the commercial TV channels often seem to be giving more balanced political coverage than the ABC. Same for 2CC in Canberra although it relays the 2GB shock jocks.

  4. GG at 841. I agree completely. It is a silly strategy, borne of anger. I think those in Abbott’s camp have taken their eye off the main game. And all the while, Morrison and Turnbull a re strutting their stuff.

  5. The ABC is now providing fair and balanced coverage of this Government and I think it is a good thing.

    It is much improvement in the rabid leftie “burnt hands” and other bullshit stories of the early 2014’s

  6. Question@811

    I can understand design studios and artists, but not the majority of businesses I see on Glenferrie Road.

    I use mainly Blender, Reaper and Photoshop, which all love lots of processing power, and by far the cheapest way to get that is on a desktop PC.

    Everything was working fine on Win 7, and still is after upgrading to win 10. I just had to reinstall my Boutique (and always “difficult”) sound card.

    I have a tablet for slobbing about with, but much prefer a desktop as soon as I’m “doing” anything. Dual screens and a mouse make simple work of everything.

    I completely agree.

    I had my start with computers because my brother is a designer. We could not afford an Apple Macintosh, so we settled with an IBM compatible machine which he used for picture and 3D processing.

    This was where I learnt scripting in a DOS based environment. Didn’t think I would have done it in a Mac.

  7. [Abuse victims ‘face cruel choice’: inquiry

    A VICTIM of sexual abuse within the Jehovah’s Witnesses would face an “impossible choice” between staying in the church and being cut off from friends and family, the child abuse royal commission has heard.

    ONE of the most senior members of the Jehovah’s Witnesses in Australia, Terrence O’Brien, told the commission on Wednesday that a victim would know that by “disassociating” or leaving the church, they would be shunned by other Jehovah’s Witnesses.

    Counsel assisting the commission, Angus Stewart SC, said in a scenario where a survivor of abuse could not bear remaining in the same organisation as her abuser, the fate she faced was “cruel”.

    “No one, is it not right, should be put to the choice of remaining in an organisation which she feels is protective of her abuser, and losing her family and social network?” Mr Stewart asked Mr O’Brien.]

  8. BK@831

    Thanks virtualkat.
    My mum still hasn’t been shifted due to the amount of shuffling the ambulances have been having to do.

    I hope the government covers ambulance charges there, or that your insurance pays for it.

    We need ambulance membership here. I didn’t have it, and when they shipped me between to adjacent hospitals (from a private to a public), it cost me $300. If I knew it cost that much (which I couldn’t claim from my insurance), I would have just walked it.

  9. [TBA – The ABC is now providing fair and balanced coverage of this Government and I think it is a good thing.]

    Just like Fox News in the US whose slogan is “Fair and Balanced”.

  10. [ONE of the most senior members of the Jehovah’s Witnesses in Australia, Terrence O’Brien, told the commission on Wednesday that a victim would know that by “disassociating” or leaving the church, they would be shunned by other Jehovah’s Witnesses.]

    I actually met a guy recently who was raised a JW, but left the church in his 20s when he started to question what it was preaching. He was/is shunned by people he grew up with, people he’s known his whole life who he would’ve once called friends before he went agnostic.

    It’s completely irrational by the JW church, and totally un-christian behaviour.

  11. Just been in the car, and as is my wont, tuned in to 2GB and Andrew Bolt.

    For half an hour it was:

    1. Tony Burke
    2. Adam Goodes
    3. Environmental impacts that stop mines.

    They invented a new name: “Tony Lurk. Get it? they thought it was hilarious.

    Goodes is more of an apartheid supporter than the South African whites were.

    Environment and Mines:
    Do we really care if the orange-bellied sknink (or whatever) is wiped out? “The only good skink is a dead skink. The world would be better off without them.”

    That is the standard of “debate” on 2GB when Bolt is around.

  12. [It is much improvement in the rabid leftie “burnt hands” and other bullshit stories of the early 2014′s]

    Translation: It’s a vast improvement on the rabid leftie “burnt hands” (and other bullshit stories) of early 2014.

  13. [The world changed forever when a US bomber dropped the first atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima 70 years ago.]

    [Mr Tanaka said it was a criminal act under international law.

    “Also, morally it was wrong. So they have to find some non-legal arguments to self-justify the conduct, that they annihilated 210,000 civilians,” he said.

    The debate in academic circles now is how much other factors came into play in America becoming the first and still the only nation to drop the atomic bomb in warfare.

    The issue will be debated on Lateline at 10.45pm]

  14. Re Dee @853: Jorn has an impressive range. The 90 degree arcs have an area of about 6 million sq km.

    Re Citizen @868: ‘Fair and Balanced’ = interviewers listening in respectful silence while Government or LNP spokespeople rattle off the talking points of the day.

  15. Jay Weatherhill standing behind a very strong Abbott talking about reigning in Pollie Travel Rorts.

    Jay is the best Liberal Premier, Labor has ever had

  16. [Does 2GB bring Bolt on to do comedy relief or something?]

    Bolt adopts that tone of self-satisfied smugness. It’s all so obvious: the Earth is cooling, Adam Goodes is a racist bigot, Tony Burke is a crook, Abbott is the only person in Australia who knows what he is doing and what needs to be done.

    It just rolls off the tongue.

    There’s a tame 2GB night-shift shock jock on with him who feeds him his lines, laughing along at every quip, and making fun of Lefties and Greenies, thinking up nicknames and generally doing the Big Grovel to the Mighty Bolt.

    I will admit that Bolt’s ability to appear calm and unflustered (when we know he’s a raving looney) is one of his more annoying traits. He is SO sure of himself. No doubts. He knows everything about everything: science, politics, the arts, human relations and (as of tonight) he’s an expert on which endangered species “the world can do without”… especially skinks, a particular reptile he doesn’t seem to have much time for, personally.

  17. It is interesting.
    Any normal government would move on from entitlements, particularly as they have just sold us a battleship (well 12 frigates and patrol boars)
    They don’t believe the defense announcement is any good, or it is beyond them to sell it, or
    All they know is attacking the other side.
    What happens if the spotlight shifts to Hockey or Abbott’s entitlements?

  18. [Jay is the best Liberal Premier, Labor has ever had.]

    If you believe that, idiot, then you will believe anything.

    The only people standing behind Tony Abbott have knives in their hands.

  19. [Yes, wonder why, SA is the loosing state.]

    Is Diog around and if so are there any SA’s stupid enough to fall for this stunt after falling for the submarine stunt last election?

  20. BB,

    I’ve said before, my radio has more than one channel you can listen to. As it goes, I too was on a country trip today and was listening to a series of Show Tunes that all seemed to have current political implications.

    First there was Fagin from the Musical Oliver singing, “You’ve got to pick a pocket or two which was clearly a reference to Bronnie’s rorting scandal.

    Later, we heard, “I believe in you” from How to Succeed in Business. The opening lyrics “You have the cool calm features of the wisdom of youth” Apparently, was requested by a listener by the name of Anthony.

    There was also the pollsters anthem from Camelot of “What do the simple folk do”.

    There was also a favourite requested by a Billy from Maribyrnong from Les Miserable “Do you hear the people Sing”.

    All in all a very political afternoon.

  21. Can’t believe the AFL is trying to Stop the Boo’s because “Adam reckons the boo’s are racist”.

    Well I reckon Adam is a racist, why don’t they kick him out of the game?

  22. [a very strong Abbott ]

    TBA wanna be award for tonight goes to TBA, noone could outstupid the suggestion the weakest and most ineffective Australian PM ever is strong. Good work TBA.

  23. Actually, watching Jay play with Abbott reminds me of the ancient art of ‘trout tickling’ …a pleasure to watch such a skilled practitioner ..Lol!!

  24. [Premier Jay Weatherill has worked out how to work with Tony Abbott ..he has him wrapped around his little finger :D]

    All he’ll get is slime on his fingers and broken promises.

  25. BB:

    What’s scary is that there are people out there who totally believe everything 2GB reports, even if it is Bolt, Hadley etc.

    I cannot believe there’s a sustainable market for that kind of unhinged, off the wall commentary.

  26. are the nationals running against mirabella? (many donated to McGowan’s campaign last time to get the sofa out – I heard the feedback to mcgown was ‘anyone who has been in the same room as mirabella wants her gone’). if so who have the nats put up and where will they direct their preferences? I’m interested to see you think Cathy is a dud zoomster – what did you think of the sofa? McGowan has a pretty impressive pre-parliamentary career, and I’ve always thought her pretty sharp and a go-getter. I would have thought she’d be a great indie in the tony windsor mode. not so? i think the libs have not done themselves a favour putting mirabella up again – she’s the ideological and political love child of abbott and bronnie, and the in-breeding is apparent. I think her actually family tree is greek monarchist/fascist, and they were a particularly nasty bunch. apples don’t fall far from their trees.

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