This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.
Furthermore:
• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.
• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.
• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.
vic
This bit got some passing mention –
[n 2013, he was embroiled in a travel expenses scandal when it was revealed he spent more than $5,000 on a trip to Cairns with his wife for what he said was “electorate business”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-21/federal-liberal-mp-donrandall-found-dead/6638170
Not long after the trip he disclosed that he had taken possession of an investment property in Cairns but maintained that was not the purpose of his trip.]
CTar1
Thanks.
“@GrogsGamut: To suggest as Abbott did that the ALP is “almost indistinguishable from the Greens” on asylum seekers requires a fairly odd view of reality”
Aristotle
Thanks.
@andrew_lund: Environment Ministers from South Australia and Queensland also meeting with Al Gore @9NewsAdelaide @9NewsBrisbane http://t.co/NSzaBGYjHV
At least this time Mr Gore is not being fooled by Mr Palmer
Asked about Madame Choppper Mr Abbott does a runner.
@guytaur/2848
So Coalition Party will attack Labor for being weak.
guytaur
How frickin predictable of the Abbott
Abbott now comparing Labor to Greens, how funny for BW and the likes:
Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut 5m5 minutes ago
To suggest as Abbott did that the ALP is “almost indistinguishable from the Greens” on asylum seekers requires a fairly odd view of reality
zoidlord
If Labor was shooting AS Abbott would find some way to say it was weak.
I think its going to be interesting how this plays out. The press pack sounded sceptical not just swallowing the lines from Abbott this time
[Asked about Madame Choppper Mr Abbott does a runner.]
He’s got to get in his exercise some how.
Victoria
On the paedophile thing, Scotland Yard suggests a CREDIBLE witness actually SAW an MP strangle a 10 year old.
As I say if it was New tricks I would be moaning about the implausible story line.
I am not normally in favour of capital punishment, but for that MP (now dead sadly) I think I would advocate medieval torture prior to hanging, drawing an quartering.
dtt
It is very disturbing indeed.
Guytaur
If Labour was shooting assylum seekers most of those on PB of ALP persuasion would tell us it was for their own sake, to ease their suffering.
@TheMuellerName: Abbott faces backbench pressure to reverse wind and solar directive http://t.co/EjWU9Hb0WZ! via @ABCNews
dtt
[I think I would advocate medieval torture prior to hanging, drawing an quartering.]
And you’d do it yourself?
CTARI
In the case of a priveledged MP who strangles a 10 year old – yes I probably would, but I think there would be a stampede of people to get there ahead of me.
I am of course joking because I am totally opposed to capital punishment
Perhaps just locking in a cell with Bubba as “company” to enjoy as Bubba chooses.
[zoidlord
Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 11:35 am | Permalink
@BW/2845
The problem with attacking Greece or Greens is that the AS will continue to flee, until the source is stopped.
Once you stop invading other people countries and improve the sources countries, majority of this will stop happen, but since we have this hatred/back and forth nonsense on repeat.
Boats ans AS will continue to flee, regardless of what nonsense rubbish you post]
Goal posts, meet shift.
Peg was lauding the Greeks on their reception of a/s.
My point was that one of the Greek Party’s, Gold Dawn, has its leadership and many of its MPs out on bail on a charge of murdering an immigrant.
As for the global asylum seeker issues, I simply cannot see a solution of any reasonable kind for the 50,000,000 or so refugees who are being joined not only by their own offspring as they keep having babies, but by 2-10 millions more of asylum seekers currently being generated per annum.
And that is before the AGW reffos start fleeing.
[ I believe it is perfectly legitimate for Labor supporters to speculate on the relationship between Abbott & Credlin.. ]
While i am guilty of on occasion finding such speculation humorous, as far as the recent ski trip I can well imagine that the Liberals would have wanted someone Abbott see’s as an authority figure to be sticking to him like glue and be immediately on hand during the period of the ALP conference.
For no other reason than to try and make sure he doesn’t come out with some kind of brain-fart comment in public on any matters arising from it. Regardless of what you think of Credlin, she does have a VERY hard job. 🙂
Whether Abbott and Credlin are shagging is their business.
Not ours.
Let us keep it like that.
BW @ 2870
Yes indeed. What they may or may not be doing is not affecting the way government works. We already know they work closely together.
No public interest here.
BU @ 2842
[If Reclaim Australia and Golden Dawn aren’t both spawned by the same ideology, I’ll chew off my own left bollock.]
Your left bollock is moderately safe at the moment. Yes, elements of Reclaim Australia are spawned by the same ideology as GD. But that is where the similarities end. GD is a political party with significant membership which has had members elected to Parliament. For all the noise it made – amplified greatly by its opponents – RA is still a fringe organisation representing the views of few Australians. And that is my point. A country on the edge of bankruptcy subject to an uncontrolled inundation of indigent asylum seekers with little in common culturally with the vast bulk of the country’s citizens give rise to parties like GD.
And the conditions are increasing there where people who feel they have nothing left to lose combine with others who are terrified of losing what they have to aggressively target scapegoats with extreme measures.
The public being interested as opposed to in the ‘public interest’ judged by the Press are two different things.
[“@GrogsGamut: To suggest as Abbott did that the ALP is “almost indistinguishable from the Greens” on asylum seekers requires a fairly odd view of reality”]
The ALP must have an amazing policy on boats if it both almost indistinguishable from the Government’s position and the Green’s position.
Perhaps the ALP have it perfectly balanced between the two and it is, therefore, the best policy.
Ctar
Yeah. For the press the public interest is how many newspapers/magazines can we sell or use as clickbait.
TPOF 😀
[The ALP must have an amazing policy on boats if it both almost indistinguishable from the Government’s position and the Green’s position.]
We must be all agreed then.
/sarcastic
[confessions
Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 8:09 am | PERMALINK
victoria:
Totally agree re the social media crap re Abbott and Credlin. Completely unnecessary.]
Yes it probably IS unnecessary. But I have no sympathy for either of them. They are a pair of callous, lying, scheming bastards who between them have done untold damage to this country and they deserve whatever karma they get as far as I am concerned.
@BW/2868
Exactly why no policy will work until the source of the problem is resolved, and part of that problem is the west stop being involved in Wars, and stripping the countries of their resources.
z
The current single largest generator of refugees is almost entirely being generated by Sunni v Shia (Syria alone: 7.3 million refugees).
The West is increasingly peripheral to this one.
So BW
What is your humane suggestion for management of AS and their many babies:
1.return to home to be bombed, imprisoned, starved or massacred
2.Concentrate in overcrowded camps with poor food, hygiene and health care in the hope that the next epidemic will reduce the problem. An Ebola epidemic in the camps would solve the problem nicely
3.Mass sterilisation
4. Humane suffering amelioration. There are some good gas models in Auschwitz going cheap.
Any other positive suggestions?
Darn
Its the out of control press that we should be worried about. Lose the public interest test as a standard and you get the whole hacking gate scandal we saw in the UK.
Bw
[The West is increasingly peripheral to this one.]
Spot on. Since 1995 simply local war and slaughter.
If you are wondering what the noise is in back ground of Brisbane cross on 24
@GedKACTU: ‘@linessue addressing #ChAFTA rally in Brisbane – ‘I stand with workers and unions’ #ausunions #auspol http://t.co/0LnezDUZuB
Guytaur at 2860:
[If Labor was shooting AS Abbott would find some way to say it was weak.]
This statement is completely unsupported by the facts. You will surely remember the LNP/Green weepy response to the Gillard government Malaysian solution, subsequently supported by the “panel of three experts”.
Abbott’s response on AS is dictated by politics not principle and he will just as enthusiastically claim Labor are too harsh if he can cause disruption to effective proposals as he will claim Labor are rolling out a red carpet.
Since your hypothesised AS shooting policy would be a very effective policy for “stopping the boats”, particularly if well advertised, I have no doubt Abbott would claim (by coincidence as it were) it was too harsh.
BW
We created the current Sunni/Shite refugee problem We bloody well own it.
We looked the other way in Sri Lanka so we partly own it.
We are not responsible for Africa or the Rohinga
[Lose the public interest test as a standard and you get the whole hacking gate scandal we saw in the UK.]
Wayne Rooney cheating on his wife?
This is hugely comparative to what is going on in the M-E and north Africa …
NBN boosting staff levels, Turnbull attacked previous NBN CO management for levels of staff at NBN Co: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/nbn-network-set-for-hiring-frenzy-as-staff-morale-lifts/story-e6frgaif-1227457820240
http://www.zdnet.com/article/to-morrow-when-the-nbn-war-began/
Oh that reminds me, I needed to respond.
1. On Abbott/Credlin gossip. I make it a rule to never make politics about the personal, however, not when its hypocritical. If someone is a family-values politician and talks about the sanctity of marriage and MAYBE isn’t as committed to his own marriage is worthy. But again, it impacts partners and children and that’s not cool.
2. I saw someone suggesting that Joe DeBruyn is a respected figure in the ALP. I don’t know a soul, outside of the old-school Catholic Right faction who hold him in anything but contempt.
[We created the current Sunni/Shite refugee problem We bloody well own it.]
Please demonstrate your point.
The colonial powers didn’t seem to have a preference when they cut up the M-E a hundred years ago after the Ottomans collapsed.
[Please demonstrate your point.]
That should get me a very long numbered point answer.
@political_alert: New regulation tabled to enable Australia Post to introduce a two-speed letter service https://t.co/SbrweSRYlq #auspol
J341983
Great post at 2888 – totally agree!
http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/japan-looking-at-uk-help-to-win.html
Interesting. The Japanese are casting around for partners to try and beat out TKMS for the subs contract. The Germans really do seem to have their act together on this one with their industrial offering, a record of building pretty good boats, and experience supplying to foreign navies.
I suspect that in the end the US influence because of what kind of combat system they will provide to what supplier will be the critical deciding factor.
But, from what i can see at the moment (since there is NO military off the shelf option available anyway) the German U216 proposal, with US systems integrated, AND their proposal to build in Oz AND make it a regional maintenance hub for their other sales in the region must be a very strong bid.
@BW/2879
We intervened by the division of IRAQ, back when Britain was in control.
The west eat it’s own shit, so obviously they believe their propaganda.
@Guytaur/2891
As if we don’t have enough problems with AusPost already, they trying to raise revenue.
daretotread@2885
So we should bring the entire refugee population here?
Those that come here are a tiny minority of the refugees and the great bulk will be in a dreadful situation until conditions are created where they can return home.
imacca
[I suspect that in the end the US influence because of what kind of combat system they will provide to what supplier will be the critical deciding factor. ]
Am I deficient in memory in thinking that all the Krupps weapon systems in the Collins Class had to be replaced to appease the Yanks?
Also Religions creates Wars, that is a known fact, it doesn’t help the case for West.
guytaur@2891
Enjoy it while it lasts.
Letters are headed the way of the telegram.
[In reality over the last twenty years, there is only one election that Labor has arguably not toughened up on its asylum seeker policy going into it, the 2007 election, and that being also the only election it has won in that twenty years.]
Didn’t we read earlier that Rudd canvassed the idea of turning back the boats in the 2007 election? Sounds like a toughening up to me.