This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.
Furthermore:
• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.
• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.
• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.
Interesting commentary and suggestions for a different political model. We can dream, I suppose: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/five-ways-to-reform-politics-20150722-gihr4k.html
The SmearStralian is all Get Bill today with 7 articles and opinion pieces, plus the editorial laying into “Electricty Bill”. Yes, unlike the AS debate weighing down this blog and Twitter, the Murdcoh/Abbott cabal are all out to discredit the 50% RET target policy.
A small taste of the approach
[Bill Shorten’s shadow cabinet never discussed a policy shift that would see half of Australia’s large-scale energy needs generated from renewable sources by 2030.
The announcement caught some senior Labor MPs by surprise, and the union movement is divided on the impact of a 50 per cent renewable energy target on electricity prices.
Two MPs yesterday confirmed the plan had not gone before shadow cabinet or the partyroom.
“It scares the shit out of me,” said one Labor MP. “But technology is changing rapidly. It’s an aspiration. I have to say, even though it makes me nervous, I think he got the politics right.”
The new position comes a week after a leak of a draft Labor climate policy — before it had been seen by shadow cabinet — which detailed plans for an emissions trading scheme and a further tax on electricity generators.
But Mr Shorten risks a clash with some unions. The national president of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, Tony Maher, recently warned of higher electricity costs for manufacturers and households under a 50 per cent target.]
the sub theme of potential disunity within Labor is the obvious solution for a good cleansing from this unelectable leader.
And the Daily ToiletPaper is going after Bronwyn’s travel rorts, photoshopping her onto a My Roman Holiday Vespa.
[
High-flying Bronwyn’s five-star digs
EXCLUSIVE: Bronwyn Bishop went where popes, kings and princesses have gone before — now we take you inside the lavish hotels she checked into on her European tour.]
With Rupert now ripping the bucket on The Speaker, will she make it to the next sitting day? I for one hope so.
Morning all. Lovely to see a final outcome on costs for Joe Hockey’s defamation case. Fairfax will pay 15% because most of Joe’s claims were dismissed, so overall Hockey will pay out several hundred thousand more in costs than he won in damages.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-22/joe-hockey-court-defamation-costs/6639246
Its OK though. Joe Hockey is a man of principle. It was never about the money for him 🙂
Joe has called a presser for 9.30am this morning. His demeanour will be one for the body language experts to dissect.
I only caught a small part of Bill’s i.v. with Sales last night but it was quite enough. It could almost have been called vicious. ‘How can we trust you?’ seemed to be her theme, ‘because you’ve changed your mind so often’. What, on some sort of ETS? Renewables? Rubbish.
All I could think was that she was practising the trust theme in preparation for the Abbott interview (if he turns up).
Peta and Mark will have had 24 hours to prepare Tony for similar questions. He’ll be well rehearsed.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The AMA chief let fly at Medibank Private yesterday and said if things continue we will end up with a US-style medical system.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/medibank-row-stance-will-lead-australia-to-usstyle-system-says-ama-president-20150722-gii5ia.html
Bronnygate continues to bubble along.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishop-expense-scandal-speaker-defends-trips-to-the-opera-20150722-gihrxv.html
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishops-facebook-cover-photo-angers-social-media-20150722-giiala.html
Glen Stevens says that the budget’s growth estimates are too high and that this will cause more budget distress later on.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rbas-glenn-stevens-warns-of-budget-sting-in-the-tail-due-to-overoptimistic-growth-projections-20150722-gii0n7.html
The German shipbuilder bidding in the submarines job says Australia would be stupid to have them built overseas.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/future-submarines-cheaper-to-build-subs-in-adelaide-germans-say/story-fni6uo1m-1227453184542
Some men are such bastards!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/one-more-police-backdown-over-violence-against-women-20150722-gii5jl.html
Sydney house prices have risen 22% in one year!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/23/sydney-house-prices-jump-22-in-one-year-to-reach-1m-median-report-says
“View from the Street” touches on the taxation debate, Bronny’s opera visits and Labor’s renewable energy policy.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/one-more-police-backdown-over-violence-against-women-20150722-gii5jl.html
And Michelle Grattan says that Labor’s renewable energy policy can be a real positive.
https://theconversation.com/labor-seeks-to-turn-climate-policy-into-a-positive-with-ambitious-renewables-goal-45048
Meanwhile Abbott and his mates tread a new path to climate change action obstruction.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/tony-abbott-new-path-of-climate-change-obstruction,7969
Section 2 . . .
This lawyer explains why Hockey’s defamation action was a big mistake.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/07/22/poor-judgement-hockey-defamation-case-costly-mistake/
Abbott’s responses to climate change are not considered as conservative says a British Conservative MP.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-responses-to-climate-change-are-not-conservative-20150722-gihpxi.html
Richard Ackland explains that there is fertile ground for legal action against the commonwealth and the contracted health service provider for detention centres.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/23/ihms-revelations-bolster-the-legal-and-political-case-against-the-detention-of-asylum-seekers
According to a big audit Melbourne’s train system is broken.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/metro-audit-reveals-detail-of-melbournes-failing-rail-system-20150722-giie6u.html
Alan Moir is having a lot of fun recently.
David Pope contrasts renewables policies.
Mark Knight with some good caricatures as Shorten considers boat turnback policy.
Watching the Drum last night, the low level of understanding of energy policy from both AGW and economic perspectives was disappointing.
The panel discussion simply focussed on the short term politics – there was nothing on the long term vision – no understanding of it.
Even the guest, Climate Spectator editor Tristan Edis, seemed to fumble the ball, when he acknowledged that there would be some increases in power costs but didn’t really push the long term benefits.
The benefits of an increased RET, and attendant policies, probably including ramping the CFC, include transforming our economy with smart technologies, cheap, ubiquitous, locally generated power.
Then we get Bernard Keane’s article in Crikey yesterday;
[Shorten’s Super-RET: dumb economics, but smart politics?
Bill Shorten’s higher RET is intended to exploit the gap between voter enthusiasm for renewables and Tony Abbott’s pathological hatred of them. But it’s not the best way to achieve decarbonisation.]
Well, how do you know Bernard? The announcement by Shorten simply set a target, it didn’t go into detail about other instruments, such as a cap on emissions, an ETS and the CEFC.
For example, the CEFC seems to be pretty good economically – in fact returning a profit to the tax payer.
If we can achieve 50% renewables by 2030, simply by ramping up some cheap loans to wind and solar generators, and make a profit at the same time, it sure beats the hell out of Abbott’s Carbon Tax, Direct Action for planting 50 trees in the local reserve at $500 a pop.
P.S. The 50% target is not really all that ambitious, we would probably get there virtually unassisted. (SA is already there.)
Speaking of bad economics, it hasn’t taken long for the Victorian Andrew’s Labor government to start stuffing up Melbourne’s rail system. The more political staffers interfere with departments, the more they stuff them up.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/train-delays-as-government-bungles-biggest-metro-timetable-boost-in-years-20150721-gih8cb.html
This means that the $3.8 billion regional rail link project has created almost no benefits for rail users. Shame, Daniel Andrews. In the end he is just a political aparatchik who got lucky.
I am fully supportive of Labor’s 50% RET policy, but not at all of the endorsement of the AS boats turn back.
This solution sits in a legally grey area and Abbott was constantly ridiculed on this blog for this policy, so I am rather perplexed to see some of our Laborite bludgers supporting it.
I don’t believe it is definitely decisive in whether Labor or the Coalition forming the next government because of the position of this one single policy, and IMO, Labor should have chosen to take no position on this policy.
All chaos on the Werribee line in Melbourne’s South-West this morning after vandals broke in and set fire and cut cables last night.
Buses substituting all travel between the Laverton and Newport stations.
From Grattan’s article on the RET, on Abbott and his carbon tax claims
[But parties always need to be beware of thinking they can fight the next election on the same formula as the last one.
]
My belief is that Abbott is going to fight the next election as he did 2013.
With the exception of debt and deficits it will be carbon tax and boats, and a tax cut.
It is beyond him to do anything else.
Socrates@10
I didn’t see the point of politicising metro timetables. Andrews should have just implemented this timetable now and based on the feedback make changes later that he believes are more beneficial.
The people most impacted are those in the safe suburbs along the Werribee and Sunbury lines.
Trog
[The benefits of an increased RET, and attendant policies, probably including ramping the CFC, include transforming our economy with smart technologies, cheap, ubiquitous, locally generated power. ]
Agree.
And I note that the Libs particularly hate wind power. I assume that’s because their power generating mates don’t like the fact that wind turbines generate day and night.
Shorten needs all the hostile interviews he can get, because he needs to show some steel and stand up for himself. Sales interview last night was a classic opportunity for him and he did OK. It is probably not popular to say this but he needs to take the TURC advice on board and limit his answers to 30 or 40 seconds max and start with yes or no. This has the advantage of being seen to have “answered the question” which helps shut down repeated follow up questions.
John Reidy@13
Still unsure why any voters would take him seriously considering he went back on so many of his promises in 2013.
I’d pay good money to see a word cloud of all his electoral promises in 2013.
Ctar
I meant CEFC – not CFC. (We don’t need to ramp chlorinated fluorocarbons.)
This is a longstanding problem. Successive governments have failed public transport.
[The list of weaknesses in Melbourne’s rail network is so long that fixing it all would be unaffordable, according to an internal audit obtained by The Age, but Metro has warned the state government some of the problems are so critical they can no longer be ignored.
The internal audit has revealed the system is in such poor shape after decades of neglect that it cannot cope with expected demand unless hundreds of millions of dollars of failing infrastructure is renewed.
More than $950 million has been spent on the maintenance and renewal of the metropolitan rail network in the past four financial years, government figures show. Yet Metro’s highly detailed five-year plan, reveals the repair job remains huge and damages the reliability of virtually every aspect of the network.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/exclusive-the-six-problems-ruining-melbournes-rail-network-20150722-gii8ps.html#ixzz3gevUNQMU
TS
Yep, and then the same commentators will have a whinge about lack of vision, conviction, policy debate, etc etc — they may have a passing swipe at ‘the media’ just to make it all right.
Surely they should be talking about Shorten being a conviction politician (for supporting action on climate change consistently) and Labor as a party with a long term vision (NBN, NDIS, Gonski etc etc) for the nation?
But no – they portray both Shorten and the party as simply doing politics, ignoring the fact that they – oh, sorry, the other media – are saying at the same time that carbon pricing was (in part, they qualify) one of the reasons Labor was defeated at the last election.
If carbon pricing is political poison, then Shorten can’t be looking for short term gain. So either Shorten is a conviction politician, putting what it right over what is popular, or he’s a populist, and the general public aren’t satisfied with the present level of action on climate change.
Instead, the media want to have it both ways.
Raaraa
I don’t think any of us are particularly supporting boat turnbacks, just as I don’t think the ALP itself does. However, understanding the political reality that means Labor has little real choice except to accept them is a different matter – and we don’t know what Conference will do with the issue.
Trog
[I meant CEFC – not CFC. ]
I took it as such.
…as is so often the case, ‘explaining is not supporting’.
Raaraa
[Still unsure why any voters would take him seriously considering he went back on so many of his promises in 2013.
I’d pay good money to see a word cloud of all his electoral promises in 2013.]
Agree
Direct Action is Abbott’s Carbon Tax
umm..
Direct Action is Abbott’s Carbon Tax
Increasing GST is Abbott’s Big New Tax
umm..
Increasing GST is Abbott’s Big New Tax
This is probably a sensible move.
[The ABC will close its 50 retail stores around Australia, with the loss of up to 300 jobs.
The national broadcaster will instead move to online retailing of ABC-related products, and begin ending leases with landlords.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/abc-to-close-its-shops-across-australia-20150722-giiiqd.html#ixzz3gewo6oA4
I don’t like what is happening with AS but as I’m sure I don’t have a workable solution I refrain from commenting on them.
‘Just let them fly in’ is a silly idea.
[The Abbott government’s recently-released agricultural white paper was used by Mr Kennett as an example of an absence of political vision.
“There wasn’t a simple statement … that started the white paper about what the objective was,” he said.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/jeff-kennett-says-australia-has-been-leaderless-for-a-decade-20150722-giih11.html#ixzz3gexrRd6O
Lizzie and others
Most people I know with inside knowledge of the running of Melbourne rail would point to the late Lynn Koski as the real start of the rot for Melbourne rail. The privatization under Kennet was a disaster in terms of service quality, but the asset was still in fair condition. Koski was faced with the need to do major system maintenance and overhaul works, especially to the power supply and signalling. She didn’t do them. Whether rolled by Bracks or not, she never took up the public fight to repair the system. It has been falling apart ever since.
So yes in one sense all Victorian governments in the past two decades were guilty, but some were more guilty than others. When ministers ignore technical advice, they only have themselves to blame when the public gets annoyed with the resulting failure.
In my experience the Liberal party actively dislikes public transport, and only ever maintains the system, never expanding to meet demand. But Labor has no interest either way. Their main political interest is keeping train drivers absurdly overpaid, and other rail workers in a job. They rarely invest in maintenance, and only in capital so that they can be seen to cut ribbons,
Neither side publish detailed performance figures on patronage, reliability or running cost in a systematic checkable way. Otherwise the public might realise what they are doing. Sigh. Have a good day all. People of Melbourne, keeping changing governments till you get a competent one.
Argh! Just saw Dutton, words just fail!
11.8% margin in Canning.
Removing 6% personal vote leaves the margin on 5.8%
Factoring in the 7.8% swing seen in WA on this week’s bludger track compared to last election puts the margin on 2% Labor’s way.
Putting in a (completely made up) 3% factor of ‘governments always do poorly in by-elections’ gives a 5% margin for Labor.
Will the Liberals run a candidate? Or will they keep out of it to avoid the sensationalised news stories – “16.8% swing against Liberals – if this is repeated at the general election, the greens have a chance to become the official opposition”
sprocket @2
Re the The SmearStralian editorial
Electricity Bill’s Carbon Reboot
Just plain moronic.
I remember a time, back in the last century, when the Australian was highly regarded. Now they should simply call it The Bogan.
I have read a lot of renewables cost articles in energy industry (that is oil and gas) publications. So hardly biased TO renewables. All the writing seems to be that renewables are already very close to price competitive. I think it was probably MSM but a recent wind in the US seemed to indicate that where it had been installed (there was some subsidy scheme) the people including repug’s loved it, and the somewhat subsidized scheme.
Seems most of the ‘how expensive is that’ talk is from the Koch brothers and isn’t very attentive to like real facts.
Even the project lets steve price’s claim about how much more expensive it was go unchallenged. Yeah we are still paying for it but if wind has a capital subsidy, then actual generation costs may well be cheaper than coal (I think) but worse case it is a lot closer than the ‘bad economics’ clowns think.
[11.8% margin in Canning.
Removing 6% personal vote leaves the margin on 5.8%
Factoring in the 7.8% swing seen in WA on this week’s bludger track compared to last election puts the margin on 2% Labor’s way.
Putting in a (completely made up) 3% factor of ‘governments always do poorly in by-elections’ gives a 5% margin for Labor.
Will the Liberals run a candidate? Or will they keep out of it to avoid the sensationalised news stories – “16.8% swing against Liberals – if this is repeated at the general election, the greens have a chance to become the official opposition”]
Labor has to find a good candidate does Joe Bullock have a very charismatic son or daughter?
Soc
It was falling apart well before Kosky – I was in an electorate office in 2000 and rail problems were our main source of complaints.
Part of the problem Labor had (probably has now) was dealing with the mish mash of ownership and leases of the system left behind by Kennett.
To deal with the problems on the Albury line, for example, they had to wait several years until the opportunity came up to purchase it, because the contractors who ran the line were not required to maintain it to a satisfactory standard.
Trog
[I remember a time, back in the last century, when the Australian was highly regarded. ]
Minutes ago, OH made that exact comment.
It has morphed into a version of The Truth with a very thin veneer of respectability.
I don’t know the details, but WA Labor had a major falling out between the parliamentary arm of the party and the State office, resulting in the Secretary, Simon Mead, being eased out.
That will certainly complicate matters.
Morning all.
The BBishop saga continues I see.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/inside-the-lavish-hotels-where-speaker-bronwyn-bishop-stayed-during-her-european-tour/story-fntzoymh-1227453074074?sv=d9f0775153663b2bd18cabb24d9e0de3&utm_source=The%20Telegraph&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=editorial
Presumably this can go on for as long as there are travel records to be pored over. By not resigning she’s allowing the office of Speaker to be further traduced. What a disgrace.
The Oz today is still talking up Plibersek and is still trying to gut Shorten.
Ms Albrechtson fusses about politicians with an entitlement mentality.
confessions
[ By not resigning she’s allowing the office of Speaker to be further traduced. What a disgrace. ]
Agreed 100%.
Change.org petition now up to 62,500.
[ https://www.change.org/p/federal-government-remove-bronwyn-bishop-from-her-position-as-speaker-of-the-house-of-representatives ]
WWP
I have no idea about the numbers will go but note that the Greens were on about 7% and PUP on 6% in 2013.
I assume both of those will shift with the Greens going up a few points and the PUP vote virtually disappearing.
Good to hear ALP Anna Burke, my local MP, speaking out against ‘turnbacks’ on ABC RN Breakfast this morning just after the 8am news.
She conveyed her dismay and disappointment that Shorten and Marle, by announcing their support for ‘turnbacks’ pre-empted the debate on the national conference floor this weekend wtte that any opposition to the change in policy will be viewed as opposition to Shorten.
It’s all about politics and little to do with “saving lives at sea”, a euphemism for “who cares, let them die elsewhere, out of sight, out of mind”.
Have a good day all and assuage your consciences any way you can.
[ ‘How can we trust you?’ seemed to be her theme, ‘because you’ve changed your mind so often’.]
The acid test will be if we hear that line in an interview with Abbott.
Pegasus
[ Have a good day all and assuage your consciences any way you can. ]
Ditto.
Like most I guess, I have mixed feelings about the boat turn back announcement yesterday,
It is entirely pragmatic and would seem to change the complexion of possibilities for Labor in western Sydney. Dutton’s blazing guns this morning seems to confirm this.
And as is oft pointed out here in regard to Greens, perpetual high moral ground won’t deliver government power and the ability to make further changes until hell freezes over.
It will be quite a delight to hear Shorten say “we are on a unity ticket regarding boats”.
In government, hopefully Labor will have a better approach to detention etc, despite Potatohead’s lying claim to FKelly this morning that “we run humane and safe detention centres with first rate medical care”.
Lawyers explanation required
As Fairfax were successful in defending 12 of the 15 points & didn’t instigate the proceedings why isn’t Joe paying Fairfax’s costs. Is it because Fairfax didn’t seek damages.
Seems very unjust that you can be sued , win & have to pay the bill
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/07/22/poor-judgement-hockey-defamation-case-costly-mistake/
Here’s a personal reality check for PBers. Are you a real person?
https://twitter.com/leftocentre/status/623827053431816192/photo/1
[Boerwar
Posted Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 8:35 am | PERMALINK
The Oz today is still talking up Plibersek and is still trying to gut Shorten.
Ms Albrechtson fusses about politicians with an entitlement mentality.]
Murdoch’s Oz is basically a sheltered workshop for hacks who write the same stuff over and over. When given their daily orders on what to write, they do a cut and paste on what they have written previously.
They may have trouble surviving in the real world when their cocoon finally ceases to exist.
I don’t know any of these people mentioned, but I just hope Labor can preselect a strong, credible candidate.
[Both parties are scrambling to find suitable candidates — a task made harder because of an Australian Electoral Commission redistribution of Canning and uncertainty from the prospect of the Prime Minister calling an early election.
The Liberals and the ALP will want high-profile candidates, preferably with strong local credentials. People mentioned in Liberal circles include Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone and Murdoch University law lecturer Lorraine Finlay.
A potential Labor candidate is Law Society of WA president Matthew Keogh.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/28992081/by-election-trial-for-leaders/
EFA @efa_oz 56s56 seconds ago
Govt’s research shows #copyright notice scheme won’t work. No wonder rightsholders don’t want to pay for it: http://ow.ly/PXUQm #copdis
Don’t often watch the 7.30 report these days, but popped in on Iview to see S V S.
My take was that she let Bill speak for 80% of the time without much interruption.
She was quite pointed in her questions to the edge of rudeness, which is fine, provided she is does the same with Abbott if and when he turns up.
She put the heat on Shorten in terms of Trust – which is fine also – provided she asks the same questions in the same tone with Tone.
Personally, I don’t think much of her as she is in Gotcha mode most of the time.
On the other hand Bill comes across a bit diffident and hesitant.
I don’t think he needs to be too polite/bland. A bit of fire is worth it now and then.