BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Two new polls, one stagnant and the other strong for Labor, reverse last week’s move of the poll aggregate pendulum to the Coalition.

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.


• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.

Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.

• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.

• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,043 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. [2967

    I think moving Rohinga to Bangldesh where they speak a common language and share religion is a better option than mass resettlement.]

    Bangladesh just refuse to resettle any Rohingya, saying they are Myanmar’s problem, not theirs.

  2. [Cathy Alexander ‏@cathymalexander · 8m8 minutes ago
    It’s not appropriate to use the atmosphere as ‘an open sewer,’ @algore tells a Uni Melbourne crowd of 1000 people #ClimateChange ]

  3. [ Hmmm, Greens at 15% highest in 5 years. ]

    So wonkish types. Whats the highest the Greens have actually got at an election then?? Personally i think there are more than a few ALP votes simply parked there for now.

  4. [In late July L-NP support is down 3% to 46% cf. ALP 54% (up 3%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten sided with the Government on their ‘turning back the boats policy’ and committed Labor policy to ensure 50% of Australia’s energy needs are met with renewable energy by 2030. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.]

  5. [54-46 is respondent-allocated. 53.5-46.5 by 2013 prefs]

    Consistent with the latest Newspoll, after Morgan house effect.

  6. [Whats the highest the Greens have actually got at an election then??]

    11.76% in 2010 Federal Election in HoR.

  7. [Ok war it is, unless you’ve been trained by one of those Scott brothers then the sooking and whining and staging for unearned frees (cheating) you are bound to indulge in could not be called war, if is worse than soccer.]

    Its interesting you say that. There is a group of supporters who hate Brad Scott. Really want him gone, despite the top 4 last year and probably again (yes I am serious) this year. They have a similar attitude but don’t see the players as behaving that way. I’m in two minds about to be honest i find myself grudgingly liking him and his coaching and the same with his brother at geelong.

    I had a friend who played with them. Says they were hard, aggressive, picked fights and backed each other up relentlessly. Even tho they always look like they’re about to burst into tears at any moment.

    I don’t think Geelong stage for free kicks and North Melbourne get screwed by umpires all the time. (5 examples from the last two weeks deleted.) lindsay thomas doesn’t stage. He weighs about 50 kg and gets flung about like a rag doll all the time.

    Lindsay Thomas staging a free.

    If you are talking about when Brent Harvey scammed a 50m out of Priddas – well I think it serves priddas right. He was refused to give the ball back and was not concentrating. If he’d handed harvey the ball, instead of holding it away while he onjected to the decision, stood his mark and kept his wits about him he wouldn’t have lost the 50 or looked like an incompetent goose when Harvey stepped him and set up a goal. If he’d just kept his wits about him when harvey tricked him the same thing would have happened. All the sooking about that was pathetic.

  8. really pleased to read this from my Club

    [The West Coast club issued a statement on Monday expressing its regret at the repeated booing.

    In a statement, the club said its Indigenous liason officer, Phil Narkle, spoke to Noongar elders today to express the club’s dismay and disappointment at the treatment of Goodes during Saturday’s game.

    “Adam Goodes is a wonderful player, person and Aboriginal leader and deserves our respect,” Narkle said.

    “As a club we are committed to a Reconciliation Action Plan and internally we are making some important progress in this area, now we hope to impact the community more broadly.”

    Chief executive officer Trevor Nisbett also came out strongly in support of Goodes.

    “It is completely inappropriate and it has to stop,” Nisbett said in the statement.

    He’s a superstar of the game, a superstar for the Swans, fans should show more respect for what he’s done for the game.
    Lewis Jetta on Adam Goodes

    “It was a minority of our fans booing yesterday, but it has happened across the competition for a number of weeks and as an AFL community we have to address this matter. I implore all clubs to stop this nonsense.

    “Adam Goodes is a great Australian and has made a wonderful contribution to the game and the community. We understand why Lewis supported Adam when he celebrated his goal and we have no issuer with that.

    “We want our fans to support our team, but there are some boundaries that need to be observed. We cannot and will not condone racist behaviour.]

  9. Morgan 54-46…

    Somehow I doubt that The Australian will be touting this particular Morgan. Clearly an outlier.

    Shorten showed over the weekend that he can think, he can broker deals, he can develop policy and that he can do all of this without resorting to scare campaigns, high farce or intimidation.

    His history at the AWU, can now be turned into a plus. He brought in one of the biggest construction deals in Victorian history, ahead of time, with minimal industrial disputation, virtually no workplace safety issues, high wages paid to the lucky employees who worked on the project, and a healthy saving (some say $100 million) to the construction company. Tony Shepherd was so pleased with Shorten’s effort he tried to take the credit himself by reminding everyone who was Chairman of the East-West Construction Authority when the deal was done.

    The TURC tried to turn this – of all things – into a negative. Unions should have been on strike, downing tools, poorly paid, and holding lots of stop-work meetings over safety issues. They should have screwed the employer if they were worth their salt as “proper” unionists.

    When Shorten objected to Stoljar’s line of questioning, complaing about the sinister context into he was couch his probing interogatories, he got warned by no less than the Beak himself… “Mr Stoljar has a plan,Mr Shorten. You’d do well to stick to the script or I might write you up as having no credibility.”

    They should lay into the TURC with a great big waddy. They should go after Heydon and Stoljar as if they were enemies of Labor, which of course they are. There’s enough money sloshing around to create a scandal, if there isn’t one already.

    Chambers mates? Hand-picked? CRACK! One in the balls with that bloody great stick.

    No cross examination? WHOMPETY! Right behind the earole for that.

    Labor should have no mercy. The TURC was put in place as a giant redoubt, a final obstacle, an impregnable fortress… jst like the Siegfried Line. The Siegfried line lasted about 5 minutes, so should the TURC.

    Once past the TURC, the way to government is clear.

    With Chopper hanging around his neck like an albatross, Abbott will be too distracted to do anything about it.

    It’s going to get to the “high farce” stage pretty soon. All that Coalition posturing for nothing.

  10. [The personal ratings will be interesting.]

    I’ll be surprised if either leader gets a boost or a kick. Neutral is my prediction. Give me a strong 2PP over a preferred PM rating any day.

  11. What sort of ‘democracy’ does Abbott profess to support?

    [Another way of looking at it is that the final arbiter of what is fair and what is not in administering the House of Representatives is now, to all intents and purposes, Tony Abbott. The Prime Minister has made himself the Speaker by putting the titular holder of that office on notice of dismissal.]

    Read more:

  12. To merge two issues being discussed today; the influence of the Catholic Church in Labor politics and marriage equality, I post an interesting speech given by Gary Lockwood, an older gentlemen with an encyclopaedic knowledge of the history of the DLP, ALP and the Catholic Church in South Australia.

    Included is a little bit of an insight into the power behind a certain ex-Senator Don Farrell …

  13. lizzie

    Me too. I am interested in the preferred of course. I’m just expressing by ‘comfort level’ at this particular measure.

  14. Hairy nose – alot of that booing is racism, but alot isn’t and both sorts of booing create a feedback loop. They enable each other. People who don’t like Goodes the player feel ok to boo him because racists are, and vice versa.

    Ultimately that just means the people booing him are gonna be associated with racists. It goes back to when Goodes made the complaint about a Collingwood fan. Alot of people don’t like Goodes because of it. Even people who aren’t racist. I reckon they think he knew she was a 13 year old kid before he made the complaint. I know Swans fans who lost alot of respect for him because of that.

  15. zoidlord
    Go easy on Mal over the fraud and, he’s just following Tony’s instructions to pay off Rupert.
    I’m sure Mal will reverse his decisions if he becomes PM before the next election

  16. [Now as PM, it occurs in his own dining room.
    It’s an exclusive, invitation-only list with the singular requirement that the Jesuits have educated all those at the dinner. The dozen or so attendees are a mix of ministers, backbenchers, business folk, Liberal Party staffers and even the odd member of the clergy — in the person of the Liberal Party’s chaplain-at-large and old Abbott mate Father Michael Kelly.]

    Do we pay for this inclusive bunch of people or would Abbott be paying out of his own pocket. Jesuit educated only?!!!

  17. Ratsak back at 2754
    [Funny thing is that the next poll due is this afternoon’s Morgan. The last one was possibly a little overcooked for the government so it was likely to swing back to Labor anyway. Add in a little Bronnie seasoning and the narrative could easily be that the Conference was a triumph even though the polling was almost all done before it started.]

    Gary Morgans’s spin –
    [In late July L-NP support slumped 3% to 46% cf. ALP 54% (up 3%) on a two-party preferred basis as the travel expense ‘misconduct’ surrounding Parliamentary Speaker Bronwyn Bishop’s incorrect use of taxpayer entitlements continued to impact negatively on the Government.

    [In addition, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s important policy announcements last week including a Labor commitment to have 50% of Australian energy produced by renewable energy by 2030 and a decision by Shorten for the ALP to adopt the Abbott Government’s successful ‘turn back the boats’ policy towards asylum seekers appeared to give the ALP a much needed boost.]

    Picking it like a 5 year old with a snotty nose so far…

  18. The Morgan Poll result is quite predictable in light of Choppergate & the successful ALP conference. I suspect some lips may begin to quiver over at Liberal Party Hq.

  19. [I suspect some lips may begin to quiver over at Liberal Party Hq.]

    Mmmm….Rabbott facing internal pressure over wind and solar.

  20. Sarah Henderson was on 774 (Jon Faine) this morning, and Josh Frydenburg (Ralph Epstein’s Drive) this afternoon.

    Abbott seems to have hit back instead on Labor for wanting to cost the consumers by increasing the RET, but would he explain the $41 billion of the taxpayers money going to the fossil fuel lobby?

  21. Charlie
    Don’t you think the LNP will be in total denial, they will be expecting poll reversal on the back of Royal Commision stiching up Labor.
    Tony will be praying he isn’t rolled before it becomes too late for a change

  22. Jules

    well I’m with Whateley:

    [Whateley says anyone who argues the booing is not racist is “being deceptive in the debate”.]

    and with Jonathan Brown

    [“It’s obviously got some racial connotations to it, we’ve got our head in the sand and we don’t think it does,”]

  23. Con’t from before.

    And I get where they are coming from. I remember playing footy and it didn’t matter when or where you never let opposition supporters know they got to you or that you even heard them. Unless you’ve just kicked a goal.

    I look alot like Goodes, have the same colour skin, hair and beard and have heard all that shit before. he should have taken it out on the game – done one of his amazingly bullshit good things, then went past the fans who abused him and let them know they inspired it. Its not about him, its a team game.

    Then he should have publicly condemned it afterward.

    Straight Away. Before he was off the ground.

    Made a point of mentioning it after the game, and saying how disapppointed he was to hear that during indigenous week. How sad it was that in 2012 people still held such attitudes. That sort of thing. That would have been so much more powerful. I dunno if anyone has that sort of control. I dunno if I could have done that.

    So i can totally understand why he reacted the way he did and wouldn’t condemn him for it.

    But all of this has been lost to the racists cos ultimately alot of people don’t like the blacks getting uppity. They see what Goodes di, what Winmar did and any number of other things in football and don’t like it.

  24. A couple of weeks ago I’m driving the dogs to the vet and listening to Fran Kelly on Radio National Brekky – it was that or nothing.
    On comes some union fella talking about the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement – ChAFTA.
    He reckoned that temporary Chinese workers employed in Australia would not be on the same wages and conditions as Aussie workers and thus would be undercutting them.
    Fran said Minister Andrew Robb said they would be.
    The union fella said not so.
    Fran said the head of the BCA who was on RN Brekky the previous day said they would be paid the same – and she played a tape of her saying that.
    The union fella said that was wrong.

    Oh dear – who to believe?
    Well “The Conversation” has done a Fact Check.

    And the union fella -Michael O’Connor – is correct when he says:
    [“First off, there is no statement that says workers working side by side with an Australian worker shall receive the same conditions and pay. That’s nowhere in the agreement… go through the pages of the agreement and look at the Memorandum of Understanding and it doesn’t say it in black and white; nowhere in the agreement.”

    The Verdict:
    [Michael O’Connor is correct…..
    Mr O’Connor’s concerns have considerable merit.]

    And the Review of the Verdict?

    [ Michael O’Connor is totally correct in stating that nowhere in the MOU is there a specific requirement for foreign workers to receive the same wages and conditions as Australian workers that they may work beside]

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