BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Two new polls, one stagnant and the other strong for Labor, reverse last week’s move of the poll aggregate pendulum to the Coalition.

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.

Furthermore:

• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.

• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.

• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,043 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 60 of 61
1 … 59 60 61

  1. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/27/aboriginal-people-are-disproportionately-affected-by-hepatitis-we-know-why

    The over-incarceration of Aboriginal people means that more of us are in an environment where there are very high rates of hepatitis C. We’re more likely to inject drugs and share equipment when we do inject drugs, and our historic disconnection from the health sector means that people aren’t getting treatment and they aren’t being monitored. We’re also often disconnected from health messages that educate drug users to inject safely due to educational disparity and geographical distance.

    Colonialism and racism play a big role, too. Even today people claim that over-incarceration occurs because Aboriginal people commit more crimes. That is wrong. The evidence suggests Aboriginal people are more likely to be searched for drugs, more likely to be arrested if they do have drugs on them and more likely to be sent to prison if they are arrested.

  2. Bemused
    I suggest you read my posts.

    I am not in favour of large scale resettlement in Australia. I just do not much like shipping the problem to poorer countries.

    Serious question. Which camps do you think we should fund, and how much should we provide?

    I suggested a while ago that the SriLankan issue might be addressed by large scale funding to India/Tamil Nadu, probably not just for refugees but for the population. Building a hospital and some schools in Tamil Nadu in exchange for settlement of Tamils who make it to Australia, might have been a win, win,win for us, for the refugees and for the host nation. The same approach may work in Bangladesh for the Rohinga. it might even be a partial solution to Pashtun refugees for Afghanistan.

    However in the ME such solutions are a bit of a joke. The refugee camps themselves are not safe. History shows that they never disappear.

  4. dtt

    countries dealing – often quite badly – with refugees arriving on their shores are not necessarily taking them on.

    Just as you seem to confuse turning back the boats with conditions in internment, you’re confusing ‘having large numbers of refugees arrive on your shores’ with ‘accepting large number of refugees into your society.’

    Nearly every country which is dealing with large numbers of refugees struggles with the same kinds of problems Australia does. Most of them have some form of mandatory detention – even if it’s not called that – and refugees in most of these countries make the same kind of complaints about their treatment that refugees in Australian controlled camps do (which is not to excuse conditions in Nauru/Manus).

    Most of these countries also face either resistance or downright hostility towards refugees from a significant proportion of their communities.

    I’m not sure why there is this consistent portrayal of Australians are somehow nastier than citizens of other countries. I am seriously concerned about the ill disguised loathing of Australians apparently held by some posters here. People are people, and they tend to react the same way to events almost regardless of the society they come from. To pretend that Australians are a special brand of nasty – or that other countries are inhabited entirely by saints – is absurd.

  5. zoid

    The one thing I do like however, is the Labor Party pledging a review of Data Retention policy

    That’ll go nowhere.

  6. Lizzie

    I don’t remember that either, but Rudd was like the Energizer Bunny during that time and the media was all about Abbott

    I logged off after posting this morning.

    Rudd took tow backs to the 2007 election against Howard.

  7. daretotread@2952

    Bemused
    I suggest you read my posts.

    I am not in favour of large scale resettlement in Australia. I just do not much like shipping the problem to poorer countries.

    Serious question. Which camps do you think we should fund, and how much should we provide?

    I suggested a while ago that the SriLankan issue might be addressed by large scale funding to India/Tamil Nadu, probably not just for refugees but for the population. Building a hospital and some schools in Tamil Nadu in exchange for settlement of Tamils who make it to Australia, might have been a win, win,win for us, for the refugees and for the host nation. The same approach may work in Bangladesh for the Rohinga. it might even be a partial solution to Pashtun refugees for Afghanistan.

    However in the ME such solutions are a bit of a joke. The refugee camps themselves are not safe. History shows that they never disappear.

    The UNHCR runs the camps, so provide funding to them so they can allocate according to their priorities.

    If we are to take refugees from our region, the most in need currently appear to be the Rohinga.

    Sri Lanka should be assisted to sort out its own problems. They have had a change of government and the opportunity should be there.

  10. 2954

    I agree that Australia is not the most racist nation. I seem to remember some study of some kind that we are the second least racist nation, after Canada and there are certainly more racist places than Australia.

    I think the perception that Australia comes party because when people travel, they tend to travel to places where the racism is not so obvious(cosmopolitan inner-cities, touristy parks, etc) rather than where it is most obvious (agricultural areas, inner-city ghetto areas, poorer suburbs, etc.). The racism, outside the English-speaking world, is also in a foreign language. Media coverage of foreign racism, except American Racism, is also limited.

    I also think that there is an element of “my society is rejecting these people, therefore my society is bad and therefore it is worse than other societies”.

  13. Am I the only one who thinks Abbott might want an election with the THREAT of the Royal Commission over Labor’s head rather than once the report is handed down and it risks being shown to be a waste of $80m that Labor can beat them over the head with?

    That and wanting to avoid MYEFO in December…

  15. @Dee/2964,

    Let’s just say that the people involved should be in sea of blood, not the whales.

    ETU National ‏@ETU_national 16m16 minutes ago

    It’s disgraceful that aap reporter @MartySilkHack was barred from a public #chafta hearing after covering the protests outside. #auspol
    2 retweets 0 favorites

    Protests of secrecy ?

  16. Will the Turn Back Boats policy attack another government after “Indonesia”?

    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm 44s44 seconds ago

    Aus Vietnamese community calls on Govt to insure safety of asylum seekers returned to Vietnam by Australian Navy http://ab.co/1GSXUUa

  17. Bemused

    I think that we should avoid sending people back to Sri Lanka for at least 10 years and until we are sure the place is stable. Ethnic conflicts take many many years to heal. In the meantime Tamil Nadu is a good place, but because it is poor we could help financially.

    I think moving Rohinga to Bangldesh where they speak a common language and share religion is a better option than mass resettlement. However as stated ,benefits need to go the the whole community, not just the refugees.

    The UNHCR camps are overwhelmed and failing. I am at a loss to know what to do in the ME.

  18. daretotread@2967

    Bemused

    I think that we should avoid sending people back to Sri Lanka for at least 10 years and until we are sure the place is stable. Ethnic conflicts take many many years to heal. In the meantime Tamil Nadu is a good place, but because it is poor we could help financially.

    I think moving Rohinga to Bangldesh where they speak a common language and share religion is a better option than mass resettlement. However as stated ,benefits need to go the the whole community, not just the refugees.

    The UNHCR camps are overwhelmed and failing. I am at a loss to know what to do in the ME.

    To be consistent, perhaps we should evacuate the entire Tamil population and re-settle here.

    Myanmar, Burma or whatever it currently calls itself should be heavied into protecting its citizens including Rohinga. Bangladesh cannot settle very many and we can’t take them all.

  19. Am I the only one who thinks Abbott might want an election with the THREAT of the Royal Commission over Labor’s head…

    Which is why, in my opinion, Labor ought to go all-out to denigrate the TURC, until such times as it is a public laughing stock, butt of jokes and a general white elephant.

    As far as I can remember there has been ONE arrest as a result of testimony: the construction guy in Canberra who was taking out and out bribes.

    This was something the police could have investigated and dealt with. Why we needed to spend tens of millions on tracking down this “Public Enemy No. 1”, I don’t know. Why he suddenly needed to be arrested immediately after his evidence was given, seems overly dramatic to me.

    I was in a customer’s house the other day where the sofa in the games room would have been about equal to the bribes this union guy took (not to mention the Maserati, three BMWs and the Harley carelessly leaning against the garage wall). All I was told was “they’re in mining”.

    Well, good for them. I am sure all their money was earned on the level, straight-up. Just as I am sure all that money given to political parties is donated to foster a better understanding of democracy and the workings of the Ozminster System.

    You could be forgiven for thinking the only crims in the country were trades unionists.

  21. One measure is to keep donations small enough that each individual donation is too small to have influence. The trick here is to set the cap at a level that makes it worthwhile fundraising but makes the donation small enough that no one donor has clout.

    The other is to cap expenditure on campaigns. This approach has now been adopted in NSW, which has raised the issue of whether sector specific bans are required.

    The third approach is disclosure. Some countries now require real-time disclosure of political contributions and they have teamed this requirement with regular disclosure of ministerial diaries.

    This provides at least some insight into whether donors are getting preferential access.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/banning-political-donations-will-run-foul-of-free-speech-protections-in-the-constitution-20150726-gijtoj.html#ixzz3h436Cqa4

  22. MTBW

    Can anyone explain to me why we have to wait two more terms for the Government to allow gay marriage?

    In real terms I doubt it.

  24. I’ve been in the garden (fighting a huge buddleia). What was Shorten’s presser about? All the coverage seems to be the oppo.

  25. wwp

    But then I think boomer Harvey’s pathetic staging for a 50 metre in tassy a few weeks ago means he should be booed at subi every time he touches the ball. Yes in Aussie rules you can play the villian and you can stage and cheat but don’t turn all thinned skinned Scott brothers sook if you are treated like the villian afterwards.

    Of course you know this means war.

  28. Can anyone explain to me why we have to wait two more terms for the Government to allow gay marriage?

    Read the article from Crikey at the link, from Guytaur

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/07/27/inside-the-marriage-debate-shorten-sets-expiration-date-for-joe-de-bruyn/#comment-309358

    The answer is that we almost didn’t have it at all thanks to the presumed stitch up of the numbers controlled by the fanatical Catholic Right led by De Bruyn and Farrell.

    But, thanks to some smart politicking by Shorten and Plibersek, De Bruyn and Farrell were faced down and we got a compromise that will deliver the goods sooner rather than never. And that is far better an option to that of the COALition.

    Here is the key paragraph from the article, along with the photo:

     Don Farrell and Joe de Bruyn — were pulled into Shorten’s office and given the news. Although the right was winning, de Bruyn and Farrell were said to be ashen-faced when leaving the meeting. This was it: by 2019, like it or not, Labor will force its members to vote for marriage equality.

    Its a huge win for Shorten and a huge loss for the hard Right.

  29. Peter Ryan ‏@Peter_F_Ryan 2m2 minutes ago Sydney, New South Wales

    Breaking – NAB hikes rates on interest only home loans by 0.20 pc – cites concerns about pace of investor growth

  30. Yes. That explains why Greece has a Golden Dawn party and we don’t.

    We have the liberal party. John Howard adopting a chunk of Pauline Hanson’s worldview as policy sure helped with that.

  31. First-home buyers might be priced out of much of Sydney’s market but at Blacktown on the weekend they were out in force.

    Buyers queued early for their chance to snap up one of 106 apartments in Altitude Tower, a planned 24-storey building on the edge of Blacktown’s CBD.

    By Sunday afternoon, 98 apartments – or almost 93 per cent – had sold, with a quarter going to first timers. This is more than three times higher than the proportion of first-home buyers in the broader Sydney market, according to the latest ABS figures.

    http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/firsthome-buyers-swoop-as-56m-of-blacktown-highrise-apartments-sell-in-hours-20150727-giki6w.html

  32. Online shoppers beware – Treasurer Joe Hockey says the GST could be applied to all items bought online from overseas, no matter how little they cost An agreement between state and federal leaders last week was expected to see GST threshold on imported online purchases go as low as $20, from the current $1000.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gst-threshold-for-imported-online-purchases-could-be-reduced-to-0-warns-joe-hockey-20150727-gil4qa.html#ixzz3h47HVbrZ

  33. The really weird thing about that UK paedophile scandal is that IF
    it had been the plot of a BBC police drama – New Tricks, Scott and Bailey, Gently, Morse, Frost etc I would have been a bit annoyed, thinking that the writers had “lost the plot” and were straying into absurd ratings type stories that were not believable and not real world enough for what are generally excellent police dramas.

    I have communicated with victims/”conspiracy theorists” all over the world and know some victims in Australia. No one believes the stuff they say but over the last few years the number of names they’ve named that have turned out to be perps is disturbing. You wouldn’t believe the stories I’ve heard. Some I know are true (don’t ask how) and because of them the others have a lot more cred in my mind.

  34. Hi Tony, all happy in your little world, eh? 😀

    Malcolm Turnbull has cut through the slogans and semantics dominating the climate policy debate – pointing out that all policies to push low-emission electricity generation come at a cost to households, including the ones the government supports, and that the cost of renewables is falling.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/27/malcolm-turnbull-undermines-abbotts-electricity-tax-scam-claim-over-ets

  35. shea mcduff

    Just read it and understand the circumstances.

    It is well time for De Bruyn and Farrell to go they are closer to the DLP than the ALP and not in touch with the real world.

  36. Of course you know this means war

    Ok war it is, unless you’ve been trained by one of those Scott brothers then the sooking and whining and staging for unearned frees (cheating) you are bound to indulge in could not be called war, if is worse than soccer.

  37. Can anyone explain to me why we have to wait two more terms for the Government to allow gay marriage?

    Gay marriage is likely to be well and truly done and dusted well before then if Labor wins the next election and/or if the Liberals allow a conscience vote on the issue, which they probably will post-Abbott. The two term period (about 4 years) means that everyone currently now sitting for Labor in the House or the Senate would have had to face election at least once knowing that they will be bound to support Gay Marriage from the election after next. Any new Labor members / Senators would have been elected knowing that was the policy.

    A neat compromise in my opinion. Puts the pressure back on the Libs.

  40. That and wanting to avoid MYEFO in December…

    Avoiding this will be very high on the Libs agenda. They either need to go before, or sufficiently after that their friends in the press have time to do a whitewash afterwards.

    Turc….well, if they want to exploit that i think they will have only a short timeframe to do so when the report comes out, and i really dont think it will have much of an impact outside of their base…votes that they already have anyway.

    And so far nothing, but nothing, has shifted the polling in any way significantly from 52/48 against them.

    I wouldn’t write off an early election but i am very unsure if they would go that option.

  41. I wouldn’t write off an early election but i am very unsure if they would go that option.

    Think it depends if they think the economy has real green shoots (then wait) or mould growing on a stagnant corpse (go before the punters work it out)

  43. Hey Mal, competition going bye bye:

    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm 2m2 minutes ago

    Ten Network shakes up board and management in apparent clearing the decks as ACCC considers FOXTEL buying 15% stake http://ab.co/1GT4w5d

    First TPG buys iiNet, now Foxtel buying up TEN.

  44. Sorry this is a bit long. From Crikey

    Australian priest Father Mark Raper, the Asia-Pacific head of the Catholic religious order the Society of Jesus (aka the Jesuits), has lambasted the Australian government for being “short term, narrow, self-interested, merciless and out of touch”.
    The federal cabinet is heavily Catholic and contains five Jesuit-educated ministers, including Prime Minister Tony Abbott himself.
    …
    “While clearly there must be many constraints on politicians, I have to say it is disconcerting to be an Australian living in Asia today and to be represented by political leaders whose perspectives are so short term, narrow, self-interested, merciless and out of touch with Asian realities, as in the case of migration,” Raper told Crikey at the semi-annual get-together of Jesuit leaders from around the region in the Cambodian town of Siem Reap.
    “Australia is not alone in the face of contemporary challenges,” he said. “Yet we rarely get on the front foot, we are seen as isolated from common efforts to find lasting solutions to the dilemma of the contemporary mass movement of people.
    “To give just one example, Australia spends more on counterproductive, inhumane detention and redirecting of vulnerable migrants than the whole budget of UNHCR worldwide. How crazy is that?”
    …
    Also an alumnus of Riverview and school captain there, Raper made his comments two months after an exclusive annual dinner for Jesuit-educated colleagues and friends that the PM hosted in Parliament House on the Wednesday night after the federal budget.
    Each year since he became opposition leader, Abbott has held a special dinner in the parliamentary dining room on the Wednesday after the budget meeting. Now as PM, it occurs in his own dining room.
    It’s an exclusive, invitation-only list with the singular requirement that the Jesuits have educated all those at the dinner. The dozen or so attendees are a mix of ministers, backbenchers, business folk, Liberal Party staffers and even the odd member of the clergy — in the person of the Liberal Party’s chaplain-at-large and old Abbott mate Father Michael Kelly.
    There was only one woman present. No surprises, folks. It was Peta Credlin, the PM’s omnipotent chief of staff, whose Jesuit credentials were her attendance at Melbourne University’s Newman College.
    …
    Tony Abbott’s Jesuit and very, very Catholic cabinet can expect plenty of (not so) subtle pressure on this, migration and other policy subjects.

  46. That and wanting to avoid MYEFO in December…

    Avoiding MYEFO won’t mean they avoid the pre election economic and fiscal outlook report which is required to be produced by Treasury not the Treasurer.

  47. Tony Abbott’s Jesuit and very, very Catholic cabinet can expect plenty of (not so) subtle pressure on this, migration and other policy subjects.

    A lot of good its done in the past….why would things change?

  48. WeWantPaul said

    my impression was that the booing yesterday started after and entirely based on his behaviour. I almost certainly would have booed him had I been at the game and had seen what he did.

    Crap – the booing starting from his first touch of the ball – it was scratching the racist itch pure and simple. As an Eagles fanatic I was pissed off with the crowd but even more so with the later justifications from people like you.

Comments Page 60 of 61
1 … 59 60 61

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *