BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Two new polls, one stagnant and the other strong for Labor, reverse last week’s move of the poll aggregate pendulum to the Coalition.

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.

Furthermore:

• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.

• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.

• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,043 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. zoid

    [As if we don’t have enough problems with AusPost already,]

    I get two posted letters a month – a Telstra bill and a Mastercard statement.

    If the letter service was gone it’s not a problem for me.

  3. Well, I just hope the fix works to get the ALP in government: the only real solution in the long run is regional processing, by a well-funded UNHCR, with Indonesian and Malaysian cooperation, so no one has to take boats, and patience is rewarded instead of punished as presently.

    Despite all the crap we tell ourselves, all our incentives are wrong: people take boats because there is no regional queue, we don’t take from the pitiful underfunded trickle of UNHCR determined refugee anyway, and therefore its the only actual way here.

    Then we have to shut down Nauru before it becomes even more of a hell hole of institutionalised abuse. If people think Australia wont be held to account for that one day they need their heads read.

  4. Imacca

    [But, from what i can see at the moment (since there is NO military off the shelf option available anyway) the German U216 proposal, with US systems integrated, AND their proposal to build in Oz AND make it a regional maintenance hub for their other sales in the region must be a very strong bid.]

    this is an awkward matter tugging at Abbott’s conscience. He has promised the work to the Japanese, in fact probably in writing, as part of getting the Australia/Japan FTA over the line in record time.

    Perhaps he will break his promise? Perhaps he will ignore the advice from Defence? Perhaps he will cut adrift the Whingeing Pyne and a few other SA marginals? Surely not.

  6. [Also Religions creates Wars, that is a known fact, it doesn’t help the case for West.]

    It helps the ‘case’ for the ‘East’ in what way?

  10. And just on buying strategic war materials from Japan, and how they are now our best friends ever, one is reminded of the WW2 behaviour – something which Pommy lead swinger Abbott and family would not have experienced.

    It’s easy for Abbott to label ISIS as a ‘death cult’ for their beheadings, suicide bombings, land grabs etc

    Within the last century Japan had their kamikaze suicide bombers, tried to control all of Asia, had their Emperor worshipping Shinto religion, and my parents who were interned as Caucasians who happened to be in China when Japan invaded from time to time tell the story that you had to bow to the Japanese soldiers, and on more than one occasion internees who didn’t were forced to kneel, and then beheaded on the spot.

    Sounds like a ‘ Death Cult’ to me. Perhaps too soon to be pumping up Japan’s military industrial complex.

  12. zoid

    I’m all in favour of the idea that they’re going to do what they’re going to do.

    We should stay out of it.

  13. “@political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is in Melbourne today and will hold a brief doorstop interview at the University of Melbourne, 1.30pm #auspol”

  15. @GG/2914

    It’s funny, I get called alot of names and said alot of things about me on PB, but “hallucinating” tops the lot of it, considering I don’t smoke or drink even.

  19. How will Dutton respond to this?

    [A Papua New Guinean worker at the Manus Island detention centre was allegedly murdered over the weekend, a local MP says.

    The victim was allegedly beaten and drowned and his body discovered about 11pm on Friday night, Manus Island MP Ron Knight told AAP.

    He said PNG police are also investigating separate claims that three Australian expat workers at the centre were involved in the gang rape of a local woman.

    The Department of Immigration has been contacted for a response.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/worker-murdered-at-manus-island-detention-centre-local-mp-says-20150727-gil7rb.html#ixzz3h3aJd4hB

  21. TPOF

    Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 11:58 am | PERMALINK

    BU @ 2842

    [Your left bollock is moderately safe at the moment.]

    Well, that’s a relief.

    [Yes, elements of Reclaim Australia are spawned by the same ideology as GD. But that is where the similarities end.]

    Reclaim clearly has influence, George Christensen and other government M.P.s show this to be true.

    [GD is a political party with significant membership which has had members elected to Parliament]

    One Nation is a political party which had until fairly recently a significant membership which has/has had its members elected to Parliament.

    1998 One Nation primary vote: 8.4%
    2010 Golden Dawn vote: 5.3%

    One Nation and J Howard’s pandering to it certainly had a superior affect on Australian refugee policy than Golden Dawn has had on Greece and still infects both major parties today, the “turn back the boats/deaths at sea” rhetoric on this blog of late seems to prove this.

    Reclaim has the ear of a certain section of government and its intent is clear to all but the most foolish and ignorant.

    Perhaps George can quit the backbench and become its first ever federal MP.

    I’m sure Abbott has a spare Aussie flag kicking around he can pinch to drape around his shoulders, although he might need to sew a couple together to cover up his big fat gut.

  25. CTar1,

    See zoidies 2905 for who raised the issue.

    Let’s see if you are an equal opportunity admonitioner.

    Somehow, I doubt it.

  27. zoidy,

    Hate was the drug I was thinking of…

    You seem to hate everybody and everything. You must be a joy to be around.

  31. Useless denial from Kevin Andrews
    Donation was given to Menzis 200 ….

    The Menzies 200 Club was launched in 1999 by the then Prime Minister, the Hon. John Howard AC, to provide support to federal election campaigns of the Federal Member for Menzies and Minister for Defence, the Hon Kevin Andrews MP, and the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division) in their activities throughout Victoria.

    So it’s adirect payment to elect Kevin Andrews. Just like payments to North Sysney Forum are direct payments to support Joe

    Maybe Kevin can sue Fairfax .
    So how can it not be corrupt

  34. zoidy,

    Not for you it isn’t.

    You are a perpetual whine, whinge, disparage merchant and generally make the world a more miserable sort of place.

    I hope you enjoy my sugar coated character assessment.

    Cheery.

  35. Bemused

    Sorry but silly answer.

    Exactly what do you think we CAN do for refugees, short of extermination.

    Just about EVERY other country is taking on more refugees than us these days. many, may many more.

    Europe is being swamped with Syrians, Libyans and vast numbers from Africa who may be largely economic refugees. It would seem that the Pakistanis who once came to Australia, pretending to be Afghani, now head to Europe, as many of those on the boats in the Mediterranean are reported to be Pakistani.

    The USA is swamped by economic refugees from Mexico. Morally they probably should take in large numbers from Afghanistan Iraq, and Syria and Libya because they broke these countries and caused the problem. We helped, so yes we bloody well should do something, even if it is only to fund and protect refugees in camps in or near their homelands.

    Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan have huge refugee camps on their borders, where there are many, may many thousand. Lebanon has had thousands for 40 years.

    The best that you can say for Australia is that our intake is OK/head of population, but I suspect that with the huge numbers fleeing the Syrian, Iraqi and Libyan conflicts, that is no longer the case any more.

  37. Boerwar

    Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 12:08 pm | PERMALINK

    [The current single largest generator of refugees is almost entirely being generated by Sunni v Shia (Syria alone: 7.3 million refugees).]

    [The West is increasingly peripheral to this one.]

    Sweet merciful crap.

    Rumsfeld or Trump.

    Which Donald are you?

  39. GG

    Do you ever just once have anything nice to say about anyone?

    I suspect you think you are very clever but putting someone down in every post you make is really really boring.

  41. [It’s the second time an orangutan has escaped from its enclosure at an Australian zoo this month, prompting questions about whether they are mobilising.

    “I do wonder if the orangutans in Melbourne had a chat to our guys here; it’s a very, very rare event,” Henry said.

    …It is also the second time an orangutan has escaped in Perth. In 2009, Pulang, a then 15-year-old female whose name translates to “come home”, pulled one of the ropes in the exhibit free of its moorings and used it to swing into the public viewing area, in what zookeepers at the time referred to as “a planned escape”.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/27/orangutan-escapes-from-perth-zoo-enclosure-and-mingles-with-visitors

  43. @GG/2927

    Someone is obviously got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, someone is doing the “perpetual whine, whinge, disparage merchant and generally make the world a more miserable sort of place”, and that is the person who continues to rant on about people, rather than focusing on the problems of parties, policies, government.

    I’m doing the latter, your doing the former.

  44. daretotread@2935

    Bemused

    Sorry but silly answer.

    Exactly what do you think we CAN do for refugees, short of extermination.

    Just about EVERY other country is taking on more refugees than us these days. many, may many more.

    Europe is being swamped with Syrians, Libyans and vast numbers from Africa who may be largely economic refugees. It would seem that the Pakistanis who once came to Australia, pretending to be Afghani, now head to Europe, as many of those on the boats in the Mediterranean are reported to be Pakistani.

    The USA is swamped by economic refugees from Mexico. Morally they probably should take in large numbers from Afghanistan Iraq, and Syria and Libya because they broke these countries and caused the problem. We helped, so yes we bloody well should do something, even if it is only to fund and protect refugees in camps in or near their homelands.

    Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan have huge refugee camps on their borders, where there are many, may many thousand. Lebanon has had thousands for 40 years.

    The best that you can say for Australia is that our intake is OK/head of population, but I suspect that with the huge numbers fleeing the Syrian, Iraqi and Libyan conflicts, that is no longer the case any more.

    You are the only one who has canvassed options such as shooting and extermination.

    You also seem to feel out conscience can be assuaged by allowing a small number to self-select and scramble past others to come here.

    Our resources could assist a greater number in the existing camps which are just across the border and have the intention that the occupants can eventually all return home.

    We have a humanitarian intake which allows us to select those most in need for resettlement here.

  46. The one thing I do like however, is the Labor Party pledging a review of Data Retention policy:

    Delimiter ‏@delimiterau 5m5 minutes ago

    Nice one, @johaylen — Labor pledges Data Retention policy review: http://j.mp/1LMNHPU

  47. There would no doubt be some resistance but a campaign highlighting how much Australia benefits from refugees would ensure Australia had a much bigger and better funded refugee intake. It would probably already be supported.

    The million dollar question, once you’ve accepted and implemented a high refugee intake plan is to STOP those you aren’t selecting, selecting you. It is a form racism almost certainly just as liking blondes in short skirts you select but being somewhat scared of blondes in short skirts that select you is sexist. It is the power inversion in those coming by boats selecting us that has been used so effectively by Abbott and Howard before him.

    I suspect there were many factors but no doubt the irrepressible wave of refugees post wwii effectively removed the possibility of stopping the waves. The U.S. / Mexico issue is perhaps seen through this prism.

    Howard and Abbott have shown it is possible to ‘secure’ the borders so long as it is politically safe to them for them to do so.

  49. Just wondering what Bill Shorten’s next “crucial test” ..”insurmountable hurdle” ..”internal revolt” ..”leadership challenge”..etc, will be..

    ..stay tuned to our intrepid media to find out, ‘cos they don’t do policy ..only ‘click-bait’ politics..

  50. So no election this year if this is right

    @Kieran_Gilbert: I’m hearing a whisper the Union Royal Commission final report is likely to be handed to the GG in mid-December

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