This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.
Furthermore:
• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.
• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.
• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.
dtt
When initially reading the pedo allegations, i was seriously disturbed at the very real possibility that young kids were not only abused, but possibly murdered. The mind boggles
“In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.” – Martin Luther King Jr.
[ Given Greece’s economic troubles, you might assume its people would have little sympathy for the boatloads of migrants that arrive from North Africa, the Middle East and beyond. However, nothing could be further from the truth. ]
Few want to remain in Greece or Italy etc. They move on pretty quickly.
They seem to head for UK, France or Nordic countries to ‘settle’.
Pegasus
[ It’s hard to understand why a country like Australia, which enjoys one of the best standards of living in the world, is not at the forefront of the humanitarian efforts. Why is it that a country that has not had a whiff of austerity or experienced the global financial crisis as acutely as many others did can remain so mean-spirited? ]
It’s not hard to understand at all. This is what Australians wanted, so this is what they voted for, and this is what they got.
And they will do it again at the next election. Any party that pretends otherwise has zero chance of getting elected.
I believe it is perfectly legitimate for Labor supporters to speculate on the relationship between Abbott & Credlin..
..Credlin is in the public eye by virtue of her position as Abbott’s CoS ..and it’s already been highlighted by Credlin herself that they have a more intimate relationship than that ordinarily expected in an ’employer’/’employee’ situation..
..additionally there has been significant concern expressed within the parliamentary Liberal party regarding the influence Credlin has on a wide range of decisions coming from the PM’s office..
..finally, Abbott has, in the past, shamelessly paraded his wife & two daughters for obvious and base political purposes. Part of this cynical publicity was used to juxtapose Julia Gillard’s living arrangements & portray Abbott as the quintessential family man..
In my humble opinion Abbott’s relationship with Peta Credlin is most certainly not ‘off limits’..
Is ABC doing paid reviews?
Michael Janda @mikejanda 4m4 minutes ago
Uber’s global head of strategy answers five top questions about the company and its service http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-27/uber-director-answers-common-questions-about-the-service/6650054 … with ABC’s @stewart_emily
Uber sued again:
http://time.com/3971351/uber-toronto-canada-lawsuit/
dave
[Few want to remain in Greece or Italy etc. They move on pretty quickly.
They seem to head for UK, France or Nordic countries to ‘settle’.]
I wonder where the money for them to catch a northbound train comes from.
iiNet in trading halt, there goes competition (that Turnbull promised) in Telecommunications sector:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mergers-acquisitions/iinet-investors-to-vote-on-tpg-takeover-deal/story-fn91vdzj-1227457844064
dave
[ Few want to remain in Greece or Italy etc. They move on pretty quickly. ]
Not to mention that the Italians (certainly) and the Greeks (probably) have figured out that asylum seekers that merely want to transit your country can be a financial bonanza!
markjs
My view is that if the parties to the personal aspect of the relationship are okay with it. It is off limits. Insofar as it relates to public decisions etc. that is a different kettle of fish
TPOF,
And your response to this… post studiously ignored yesterday by everyone who has so much to say about asylum seekers.
[And now Shorten has a contradictory platform. The vote on turnbacks allows the option of using turnbacks but all of the commitments in the platform are to the observation of the rule of international law and the Refugee Convention.Turnbacks cannot be done with compassion. Asylum seekers are not going to stopped on the high seas and willingly turned around. It is going to require force. How can Shortens turnbacks be achieved if he is also committed to international law and treating asylum seekers with compassion?]
https://www.facebook.com/labor4refugees
markjs
[ In my humble opinion Abbott’s relationship with Peta Credlin is most certainly not ‘off limits’. ]
Nor his relationship with his AFP “bunkies”.
TPOF:
We are in vigorous agreement. IMO Labor has not yet sufficiently argued that the Speaker of the HoR is paid to uphold and enforce the rules and conventions that make Parliamentary democracy work.
Bishop as the Speaker of the HoR has engaged in historically unrivalled partisanship in the conduct of her role as Speaker. Combine this with contumelious disregard for rules in respect of Parliamentary travel and other entitlements, and she doesn’t simply gives the appearance of being unfit for her office.
Further, Abbott as PM must be denounced for his failure to take any action. He has not called for Bishop to give a full and proper account of all her travel rorts or required her to resign.
In those circumstances Abbott owns Bishop’s misconduct and every rorting travel expense she has claimed as Speaker should be seen as Abbott’s political bribe for her to continue to conduct her Speakership in the palpably partisan way she has.
[
In reality over the last twenty years, there is only one election that Labor has arguably not toughened up on its asylum seeker policy going into it, the 2007 election, and that being also the only election it has won in that twenty years.
]
I’m not so sure about that claim. For example, Rudd promised this on the eve of the 2007 Election:
[
Mr Rudd said Labor would take asylum-seekers who had been rescued from leaky boats to Christmas Island, would turn back seaworthy vessels containing such people on the high seas, and would not lift the current intake of African refugees.
“You’d turn them back,” he said of boats approaching Australia, emphasising that Labor believed in an “orderly immigration system” enforced by deterrence.
“You cannot have anything that is orderly if you allow people who do not have a lawful visa in this country to roam free,” he said. “That’s why you need a detention system. I know that’s politically contentious, but one follows from the other.
“Deterrence is effective through the detention system but also your preparedness to take appropriate action as the vessels approach Australian waters on the high seas.
]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/rudd-to-turn-back-boatpeople/story-e6frg8yx-1111114943944
Billionaires preferred:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/7/24/politics/abbott-keeps-prioritising-billionaires-over-battlers
Let’s get this clear now:
Stopping the boats is NOT a vote winner.
NOT stopping the boats, however, is a massive vote loser.
The Coalition will not be rewarded for stopping the boats come the next election. That is not how it works. People lose interest if the issue is off the front pages. However, Labor will bleed votes massively if it can be portrayed as the party that will let boat arrivals resume. You just have to look at the desperate attempts by the Liberals to paint that picture, with comments like Labor may be matching the coalition in detention and interdiction policy but their heart is not in it.
Shorten’s great achievement at the conference was to close off the potential serious line of attack by the Coalition that Labor will let the boats come again. And the fact that the vote was won on the hands, rather than by a count, shows that even the opponents know in their hearts that they cannot do anything for asylum seekers if the Coalition win government again. At least Labor will have the opportunity and will want to use the opportunity to improve the lives of those who we have detained.
CTar – Think a recent ABC program touched on that, individuals trying to raise money to move on.
Some no doubt bring some money with them. Others have family etc they try to get to.
Others seem to stow away in trucks and the like.
The Italians have made huge efforts at sea etc, but if all they rescued remained permanently in Italy, I wonder how they would feel about it all.
P1
[This is what Australians wanted, so this is what they voted for, and The vote does not prove there is a mandate for ‘turn-backs’ or for any other single issue.
If you want to cast a formal vote, there is no choice but to have your vote end up flowing to either of the two major parties, regardless of what an individual wants.
…oops u get the drift 😉
Andrew Robb being rolled out claiming FTA is really good deal for unions:
ABC Current Affairs @amworldtodaypm 1m1 minute ago
“This is a great deal for Australia. #Unions need to pull their head in”:@AndrewRobbMP #FTA #ChinaFTA #auspol #ausbiz http://ab.co/1DHVlVd
Unions should return fire at Robb, continue to point out facts.
dave
[The Italians have made huge efforts at sea ]
They certainly have despite the cost and are it seems still are even in the situation that the EU Task Force has ‘relieved’ them.
Good on ’em.
[ Greece rocked by reports of secret plan to raid banks for drachma return
Opposition demands answers after covert proposals attributed to Yanis Varoufakis and fellow ex-minister highlight deep split in Syriza party
Some members of Greece’s leftist-led government wanted to raid central bank reserves and hack taxpayer accounts to prepare a return to the drachma, according to reports that highlighted the chaos in the ruling Syriza party.
It is not clear how seriously the government considered the plans, attributed to former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and ex-finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. Both ministers were sacked this month. However, the revelations have been seized on by opposition parties who are demanding an explanation. ]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/greece-yanis-varoufakis-secret-plan-raid-banks-drachma-return
On the Adam Goodes booing thing, Fans that are not racists should think about not doing the old usual habits.
Why? Not because if Goodes was white they would boo too. Thats fair enough of course. The reason for them not to boo is simple. At the moment racists are using the booing to bolster their cause. So non racists could for a year or so as a way of opposing racism.
Not supporting racists is important. So is the booing tradition for the game. I think both can be done. As long as people make clear the silence is a statement of anti racism.
dave – Second part of answer:
[but if all they rescued remained permanently in Italy, I wonder how they would feel about it all.]
France has had enough for now.
Pegasus @ 2811
If you look at the list of parties to the refugee convention you will see that half of them are responsible for creating the flow of refugees. If being a party matters any more, you would welcome them all being moved off to Cambodia, which is a party to the Convention.
You can argue that Shorten’s position is contradictory as much as you like. You might even be right. Imagine a politician being contradictory – whodathunkit?
But the underlying fact is that being seen by the vast bulk of the voting public to be soft on asylum seekers arriving at Australian territory on unauthorised vessels – or dying in the attempt – is electoral suicide. Piping Shrike’s bizarre narrative, which had more in common with how medieval superstitions came about that genuinely rational thinking, notwithstanding.
On the AS
I still think the ALP did not need to do turn backs. However the ALP policies are not me too. This is because of the transparency in the implementation.
I think the ALP has got this right as no matter what policy is adopted voters should see the policy at work.
Labor needs to hammer this aspect. Something along the lines of
[We do not hide what we do.]
Well, have to go. Enjoy your day 🙂
abbott still swimming against the tide and while others look to the future –
[ Hillary Clinton pledges half a billion solar panels for US if she wins office
Democratic presidential frontrunner also says she wants America to generate enough clean renewable energy to power every home within 10 years
…Her campaign said the goals would lead to a 700% increase in the nation’s installed solar capacity from current levels, and eventually could generate at least one third of all electricity from renewable sources.
Clinton’s plans also call for extending federal clean energy tax incentives and making them more cost effective both for taxpayers and clean energy producers, her campaign said.
“We’re on the cusp of a new era,” Clinton said in announcing the goals on her website. “We can create a more open, efficient and resilient grid that connects us, empowers us-improves our health and benefits us all.” ]
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/27/hillary-clinton-pledges-half-a-billion-solar-panels-for-us-if-she-wins-office
Morning bludgers, a new post you might find of interest:
“Which newspapers most influence public opinion?”
http://andrewcatsaras.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/which-newspapers-most-influence-public.html …
Turnbull on 24. I think he is stirring leadership pot
“@ABCNews24: Malcolm Turnbull: I understand there are concerns about donations to political parties #auspol”
“@latikambourke: “There is no such thing as a cost free way of reducing carbon emissions,’ Communications Minister @TurnbullMalcolm.”
[Turnbull on 24. I think he is stirring leadership pot]
Never! There are no leadership issues whatsoever in the Liberal Party. Only Labor has these problems – as experts on the Labor party internal workings like C Pyne and A Abbott tell us ad nauseam – not to mention a whole slew of so-called journalists who work for one R Murdoch – who we know DID renounce his Australian citizenship.
TPOF
Did you like the casual coffee shop presser look?
[“There is no such thing as a cost free way of reducing carbon emissions,’ Communications Minister @TurnbullMalcolm.”]
Yeah, Talc but is it a tax or an incentive to individuals to take steps to use readily available techniques or technology to still live comfortably and decrease their energy expenses?
@1petermartin: How’s this for a denial? http://t.co/UVNpXEj4xI http://t.co/p28GGT7o2e #FollowTheMoney @smh @theage #ausecon #auspol http://t.co/WWiGL1zd6m
Greece…
[Arriving migrants, asylum seekers and refugees are left with poor accommodating conditions and limited access to healthcare..]
[..MSF has seen no improvement in the situation and a lack of political willingness to make significant changes in the provision of assistance to the refugees.]
http://www.msf.org/article/greece-alarming-increase-number-refugees-arriving-greek-islands-and-assistance-urgently
[The government’s own camps are vastly overcrowded – with around 5,000 refugees squeezed into squalid conditions at the Kara Tepe camp on Lesbos. In at least some camps, the government has been unable to pay local caterers to provide food to the refugees, forcing the army to step in to provide emergency food at one camp on the island of Samos on Tuesday.]
[As well as a bottleneck on the islands, there is also a buildup of stranded migrants at Greece’s northern borders. In recent months, refugees trying to reach other European countries have been able to walk into Macedonia, and then through the Balkans. But in recent days, the Macedonian authorities have moved to block the passage of most refugees, leading to an increasing number of migrants in limbo in the northernmost towns of Greece.
With Hungary – the next EU country on the Balkans migrant trail – trying to make it harder for migrants to enter its borders, there are fears many will decide to stay put in Greece, further stretching the country’s resources.
Adnother reason refugees could be forced to remain in Greece is that reported restrictions by international money transfer companies are preventing refugees being wired the large sums of money most rely on to fund their onward journeys.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/09/greek-crisis-un-refugee-agency-struggle-cope-banks-fail
The picture is of a country struggling to cope with the influx of refugees, and only tolerating their presence on the understanding that they’re heading for other countries anyway.
Another article, outlining the desperation of refugees in Greece, with some being jailed repeatedly for apparently no reason and others desperate for food and essentials —
http://www.wca-ngo.org/humanrightsfiles/the-syria-crises/356-pr-greek-crisis-means-disaster-syrian-refugees
Thanks Aristotle
Interesting
@guytaur/2836
I hate SMH website, auto play videos especially.
@Zoomster/2837
Sounds like Australia’s policy.
zoidlord
I am with you on the autoplay. My ad blocker stops them though so not a problem for me.
TPOF
Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 10:31 am | PERMALINK
[Yes. That explains why Greece has a Golden Dawn party and we don’t.]
Are you suggesting that such elements don’t exist here?
Recent reactionary, flag waving nutjob protests prove otherwise.
As would the appearance at such rallies of ignorant, morbidly obese and loud mouthed members of the current federal government.
Ditto One Nation, whose electoral success was at least in part responsible, if not the main catalyst for the current refugee mess.
If Reclaim Australia and Golden Dawn aren’t both spawned by the same ideology, I’ll chew off my own left bollock.
Didn’t Joe get Tony’s memo? The one about “No changes to the GST”?
[ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-27/gst-online-shoppers-could-lose-exemption-joe-hockey/6650222 ]
Abbott presser
[Pegasus
Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 10:28 am | Permalink
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/greece-shows-compassion-to-migrants-while-australia-stops-the-boats-20150726-giknm5.html
Given Greece’s economic troubles, you might assume its people would have little sympathy for the boatloads of migrants that arrive from North Africa, the Middle East and beyond. However, nothing could be further from the truth.]
Typical Greens head in the sand stuff.
Most of Greece’s Golden Dawn Party MPs, from the leader on down, is out on bail for murdering an immigrant.
BTW, since your SYRIZAN love buddies have been wrecking the joint it is the Greeks who are fleeing Greece.
Catching up on the news of MP Don Randall passing away. Was much said at the time it happened?
Good grief
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/pokies-victorian-punters-lose-more-than-25-billion-20150726-gikodo.html
“@latikambourke: PM Abbott conflating Labor talking about itself with transparency of Australia’s border security operations and treatment of refugees.”
“@latikambourke: ie. PM Abbott saying success of stopping the boats is because they don’t ‘big note’ and talk about themselves, justifies extreme secrecy.”
“@eleanorbloom: Abbott is asked about reports of asylum seekers returned to Vietnam. Guess what? He doesn’t comment on on-water matters. #presser”
“@eleanorbloom: I think Malcolm Turnbull just called the own government’s policies for reducing carbon… a tax. #helping”
@BW/2845
The problem with attacking Greece or Greens is that the AS will continue to flee, until the source is stopped.
Once you stop invading other people countries and improve the sources countries, majority of this will stop happen, but since we have this hatred/back and forth nonsense on repeat.
Boats ans AS will continue to flee, regardless of what nonsense rubbish you post.