BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Souring attitudes towards both major parties and their leaders result in Labor maintaining its lead in the zero-sum game of two-party preferred.

It’s been an interesting week in opinion polling on a number of fronts, with the Galaxy-conducted Newspoll series making its debut in The Australian, and big shifts emerging in the first leadership ratings to have emerged in three weeks. What there hasn’t been is any particular movement in headline two-party preferred numbers, although that’s of interest in its own right given misplaced press gallery expectations that things were about to turn in favour of the Coalition. So far as the BludgerTrack aggregate is concerned, Labor’s two-party rating has increased by 0.2% compared with last week’s reading, which is not enough to have made any change on the seat projection, with a Labor gain in Queensland having been cancelled out by a loss in South Australia.

However, the real picture which emerges from the latest results is of disaffection with both major parties. On the primary vote, the Coalition has ticked below 40% for the first time since March (before rounding, at least), while Labor is at its lowest ebb since November 2013, leaving room for the Greens to reach an historic high approaching 14%. Even more remarkable is a joint slump in the standing of both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Their respective net approval ratings have been precisely tracking each other downwards since May, feeding into a startling reversal in the tone of media commentary concerning Abbott’s performance over the past week. The preferred prime minister trend has Shorten recovering a lead he lost at the beginning of May, albeit just barely.

The debut Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, in which the interview-administered phone polling mode of yore makes way for automated phone plus online polling from a bigger sample (1631 on this occasion, compared with around 1150 previously), has produced a satisfyingly conventional result. Compared with BludgerTrack, the poll was about a point high for Labor, a point low for the Greens, and bang on target for the Coalition. This series will not form part of the BludgerTrack voting intention equation until the model has more than one result to work with, although it does feature in the leadership ratings, for which it and Ipsos broke a fairly lengthy drought this week.

I’ve also published the detailed quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, for those wishing to probe primary and two-party vote trends at state level. Crikey subscribers can enjoy my analysis of the results here.

Further on the polling front:

• There were two attitudinal results from the Ipsos poll which I neglected to touch upon earlier. Fully 75% of respondents were in favour of removing citizenship from dual citizens who took part in terrorist activities, with only 21% opposed. However, it should be noted that when Essential Research made a similar finding last month, it also asked a further question which established that most would prefer the determination be made by the courts rather than a minister. The poll also found 85% for support for constitutional recognition of indigenous peoples as the first inhabitants of Australia, up from 77% two years ago.

• The Australia Institute has waded into controversies surrounding the ABC by having ReachTEL conduct polls in the electorates of North Sydney, Wentworth and Sturt, which are respectively held by Joe Hockey, Malcolm Turnbull and Christopher Pyne. Respondents in all three electorates came out strongly against the government’s cuts to the ABC budget, with net approval ratings of minus 27.5% in Sturt, minus 27.6% in North Sydney and minus 18.5% in Wentworth. The poll even found strong majorities in favour of the rather odd proposition that the political independence of the ABC should be enshrined in the constitution. These seemed to have formed questions two and five of a longer questionnaire; Kevin Bonham is unimpressed that the other results have been withheld.

• The Northern Territory News last week reported on a poll conducted internally for the Northern Territory’s bitterly divided Country Liberal Party government, which found it at risk of losing all but one of the 13 seats it still holds in the 25-seat parliament after the recent resignation from the party of Araluen MP Robyn Lambley. The survey of 1154 respondents reportedly had Labor leading 59-41 on two-party preferred, pointing to a swing of 15%, and found many conservative voters of a mind to abandon the CLP in favour of independents. Parliamentary Speaker Kezia Purick was found to be better placed to retain her seat of Goyder if she ran as an independent, while Gerry Wood, the independent member for Nelson, was rated as the territory’s most popular politician with a net approval rating of plus 46%. Robyn Lambley was credited with a net approval rating of plus 10%, whereas Chief Minister Adam Giles and Treasurer David Tollner respectively scored minus 37% and minus 43%. Labor leader Michael Gunner was on plus 13%, and held a 16% lead over Giles as preferred chief minister. The poll also found only 18% of respondents saying the government was doing a good job, 22% saying it deserved to be re-elected, and 54% saying the territory was heading in the wrong direction.

Preselection news:

• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane is Pat O’Neill, a 34-year-old serving army major and veteran of two tours in Iraq, who if elected will become the first openly gay member of the House of Representatives. O’Neil won preselection ahead of Clayfield solicitor Philip Anthony. Brisbane is held for the Liberal National Party by Teresa Gambaro, who won the seat from Labor’s Arch Bevis in 2010. Gambaro is set to face a preselection challenge from National Retailers Association chief executive Trevor Evans, having put noses out of joint with her frequent criticism of Tony Abbott.

• A preselection held the weekend before last confirmed Sophie Mirabella as the Liberal candidate for Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. Rob Harris of the Herald-Sun reports that Mirabella prevailed in the preselection ballot over Wodonga businessman Kevin Ekendahl by 126 votes to 66. Mirabella will also have to contend at the election with a yet-to-be-chosen candidate from the Nationals, with the Border Mail reporting local party members Marty Corboy and Bernard Gaffney are expected to nominate. There has apparently been talk in the party of the seat being contested by Steph Ryan, who won the new seat of Euroa at the November state election, although it seems she is understandably not interested.

Promotion:

• Last week I had a paywalled article on Crikey on the terrible year that opinion polling has had internationally, having progressively dropped the ball in Israel, Britain, Poland and Denmark. Since then, there has been a new entry on the list with the referendum in Greece, at which pollsters heavily underestimated the “no” vote – although in this case, Nate Silver is more sympathetic.

• Also by me in Crikey recently for subscribers only: a look at the wild inconsistency in this week’s poll results for the Greens, and the obstacles facing Tony Abbott with respect to the timing of the next election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,266 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. victoria

    The only people Windsor has to convince are the New England voters. They know all about the selling of the land to the coal mine and have the same attitude.

  2. BTW One of my favorite bits of Australia is the road from Gunnedah to Coonabarrabran. For some reason i really like that drive. I’d hate to see it turned into a coal mine. there is something about that is just special.

  4. The Commissioner intervenes to say that he doesn’t think Shorten is a credible witness, that he is operating out of self interest and can he please confine his answers to ‘yes’ ‘no’ or ‘I don’t remember’.

    Cough.

  6. “@Pollytics: Heydon clearly demonstrates exactly how this entire farce of a commission is little more than a political witch hunt with this intervention”

  8. Yvonne Man ‏@YvonneManTV 6m6 minutes ago

    BREAKING: 1,439 Chinese companies halt trading, 50% of overall listings #ChinaMeltdown

  9. Favorites
    Tweets
    Andrew Landeryou retweeted
    Stephen Spencer
    2m2 minutes ago
    Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63
    For the 3 of you left who don’t think #TURC is a political witchhunt Heydon is now advising Shorten about

  10. Commissioner Heydon shows his bias.

    Commission outs itself as an act of unprecedented abuse of power by Tony Abbott and Heydon and Stoljar his well paid tools.

  11. Re the coal mine: properly regulated, mining isn’t necessarily worse environmentally than many forms of farming. I am against opening more coal mines because of carbon emissions, but all this “beautiful farming land” stuff is just sentimental nonsense. Farming and mining are two different, potentially destructive uses of land. Many of the western slopes farmers opposing the mine are the same bunch who quietly cheered when the government official was executed, gangland style, for doing his job trying to stop land clearances.

    If I were a local, I’d be somewhat interested in the prospect of the coal mine bringing some jobs and money into the community. Modern commercial farms don’t employ many people at all.

  12. “@sspencer_63: @BevanShields what I’m concerned about is a Royal Commissioner who discusses newspaper coverage and media strategy. Unprecedented.”

  13. Try again

    [Stephen Spencer
    Stephen Spencer – ‏@sspencer_63

    For the 3 of you left who don’t think #TURC is a political witchhunt Heydon is now advising Shorten about his media strategy…
    6:04 PM – 8 Jul 2015
    6 RETWEETS3 FAVORITES]

  16. Shorten needs to be more petulant, even indignant and use TURC as a stage to push the idea that royal commissions should only be convened to deal with issues of significant public importance and that spending eighty million dollars to fund an LNP wet dream is not a justifiable application of scarce government funds during a “budgetary emergency” (especially one in which there is little to no real policy advisory outcome). That fit of pique at being asked about his wife and access he obtained to some sporting event yesterday was the highlight of the day. Most people already sense this has the hallmarks of a witch-hunt and I don’t think it would hurt him to reinforce that.

  23. Victoria, guytaur and lizzie

    Thanks. Considering that length that the TURC took at Shorten yesterday, I thought that Shorten’s appearance was a one-day ordeal.

  25. Shorten made a speech easrly 2000s suggesting an education fund should be set up for union members. Apparently it didn’t happen. Stoljar implying that’s BIG fault.

  27. Isn’t it interesting that if you negotiate an ‘agreement’, that sounds legit. If you work out a ‘deal’ it’s very suss.

  28. As I read it, Heydon’s comment was extraordinary. It demonstrates my view that Royal Commissions – so beloved by many on both the left and the right – are terrible instruments: an opportunity for unelected grumpy old men who are effectively accountable to no one to shovel up dirt against anyone they choose.

    The implication that Shorten could “clear his name” implies there are allegations against him. But it’s meant to be an inquiry FFS, not a kangaroo court. AFAIC, no satisfactory case has yet been made in a day and a bit as to why Shorten himself needed to be called as a witness on what seems to be a bunch of rats and mice stuff.

  31. Yet again Barnaby shows he’s one of the few Ministers I have any time for.

    [The agriculture minister, Barnaby Joyce, has declared it ridiculous to have a major mine in the middle of Australia’s best farming land after the environment minister, Greg Hunt, gave conditional approval for the controversial Watermark project in Joyce’s New Sout]

  32. [I am against opening more coal mines because of carbon emissions, but all this “beautiful farming land” stuff is just sentimental nonsense.]

    Its not the farming land there its the actual whole landscape. The Piliga, the Warrumbungles and the small hills that sprout from the Liverpool plains are simply stunning, especially at sunset or sunrise. They’d be just as stunning without the crops, probably more so, but sticking a great big hole full of coal dust in the middle is appalling.

    Regardless that farmland should be left alone because of its incredible fertility. That has nothing to do with my personal aesthetic taste and everything to do with not wasting useful assets for short term gain. That land has fed many and could feed millions of people over the next 100 years. Its a crime against future generations to wipe out that food production potential.

  38. MB since we’re quoting a PE classic this applies to those farmers out there on the western plains.

    [Sample a look back you look and find
    Nothing but rednecks for 400 years if you check
    Don’t worry be happy
    Was a number one jam
    Damn if I say it you can slap me right here]

    Some of those rednecks are scum, but destroying our national ability to produce food is just stupid beyond belief. Especially to dig up coal at this moment in time.

  40. mb @ 178

    There was only one Royal Commission called by the Rudd and Gillard Labor governments – it was into the Institutional treatment of Child sexual abuse and has been regarded almost universally as a great royal commission that has served the public interest far beyond what might have been reasonably anticipated.

    Subsequently Dear Leader set up two Royal Commissions with the principal objectives of undermining the effectiveness of any political opposition to him and getting revenge on people who stood between him and power.

    The problem is not the process of Royal Commissions but the abuse of powers.

  41. 186
    guytaur

    This is rubbish. A month ago the Eurogroup made an offer that would have given Syriza nearly everything they requested. Syriza walked away. They have precipitated the near-total shutdown of the economy. Even if it may have been remotely feasible to rescue Greece 1 or 2 or 3 or 6 months ago it is just impossible now. Syriza have destroyed what little remained of the Greek economy. They still have not put a proposal for funding to the Eurogroup. Their conduct is staggeringly self-destructive.

  42. briefly

    Rubbish from you. Its always been debt relief or Grexit. Nothing has changed. That decision has always been the EU decision.

  46. Jules@182: Australia has always produced a massive oversupply of food and fibre. We don’t need what the Liverpool Plains produces for ourselves. Global prices have been low for a long time. As far as I know, our farmers aren’t wanting to give it away to starving people: they want commercial rates for it.

    I do accept that there possibly isn’t much demand for our coal either.

    I also love that part of the country, but, along with the beautiful landscape, a lot of what I like is the people and the communities and the history. But the farming industry is in long-term decline as an employer. Mining is a short-term sugar hit, but it does create some jobs.

    I really don’t know what the long-term economic answer for the bush might be. It’s the same problemBecause we have in Tasmania. The only sectors that seem to have much going for them are tourism (and the related phenomenon of retirees seeking permanent lifestyle change) and boutique farming. But both of these sectors tend to fluctuate and can be vulnerable to capricious changes in taste.

    The bush, like Tassie, lacks a job-creating long-term economic mainstay. Pity.

  47. BK

    But I did hear Laura Jayes say that if an MP had to resign cos of perceived conflict of interest, than the parliamentary chamber would be nearly empty

  48. mb

    Its not just the plains. The NFF person on 702 with Linda Mottram this morning was talking about danger to the Great Artesian Basin as well.

    The big thing that stuck out to me is that the legislation was changed by one Hatcher of ICAC infamy so that flood plain was not included as it is for rest of NSW.

  49. I didn’t see Mr Heydon’s intervention. Was it such as to open some opportunity for some sort of approach to the courts (if that’s possible) to have the inquiry set aside on the grounds of actual or apprehended bias on the part of the Commissioner?

    I don’t know if that’s happened in Australia, but I do recall that the findings of the NZ Royal Commissioner on the Mt Erebus plane crash in 1979 were overturned by the courts, I think at the instigation of Air New Zealand.

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