BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Souring attitudes towards both major parties and their leaders result in Labor maintaining its lead in the zero-sum game of two-party preferred.

It’s been an interesting week in opinion polling on a number of fronts, with the Galaxy-conducted Newspoll series making its debut in The Australian, and big shifts emerging in the first leadership ratings to have emerged in three weeks. What there hasn’t been is any particular movement in headline two-party preferred numbers, although that’s of interest in its own right given misplaced press gallery expectations that things were about to turn in favour of the Coalition. So far as the BludgerTrack aggregate is concerned, Labor’s two-party rating has increased by 0.2% compared with last week’s reading, which is not enough to have made any change on the seat projection, with a Labor gain in Queensland having been cancelled out by a loss in South Australia.

However, the real picture which emerges from the latest results is of disaffection with both major parties. On the primary vote, the Coalition has ticked below 40% for the first time since March (before rounding, at least), while Labor is at its lowest ebb since November 2013, leaving room for the Greens to reach an historic high approaching 14%. Even more remarkable is a joint slump in the standing of both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Their respective net approval ratings have been precisely tracking each other downwards since May, feeding into a startling reversal in the tone of media commentary concerning Abbott’s performance over the past week. The preferred prime minister trend has Shorten recovering a lead he lost at the beginning of May, albeit just barely.

The debut Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, in which the interview-administered phone polling mode of yore makes way for automated phone plus online polling from a bigger sample (1631 on this occasion, compared with around 1150 previously), has produced a satisfyingly conventional result. Compared with BludgerTrack, the poll was about a point high for Labor, a point low for the Greens, and bang on target for the Coalition. This series will not form part of the BludgerTrack voting intention equation until the model has more than one result to work with, although it does feature in the leadership ratings, for which it and Ipsos broke a fairly lengthy drought this week.

I’ve also published the detailed quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, for those wishing to probe primary and two-party vote trends at state level. Crikey subscribers can enjoy my analysis of the results here.

Further on the polling front:

• There were two attitudinal results from the Ipsos poll which I neglected to touch upon earlier. Fully 75% of respondents were in favour of removing citizenship from dual citizens who took part in terrorist activities, with only 21% opposed. However, it should be noted that when Essential Research made a similar finding last month, it also asked a further question which established that most would prefer the determination be made by the courts rather than a minister. The poll also found 85% for support for constitutional recognition of indigenous peoples as the first inhabitants of Australia, up from 77% two years ago.

• The Australia Institute has waded into controversies surrounding the ABC by having ReachTEL conduct polls in the electorates of North Sydney, Wentworth and Sturt, which are respectively held by Joe Hockey, Malcolm Turnbull and Christopher Pyne. Respondents in all three electorates came out strongly against the government’s cuts to the ABC budget, with net approval ratings of minus 27.5% in Sturt, minus 27.6% in North Sydney and minus 18.5% in Wentworth. The poll even found strong majorities in favour of the rather odd proposition that the political independence of the ABC should be enshrined in the constitution. These seemed to have formed questions two and five of a longer questionnaire; Kevin Bonham is unimpressed that the other results have been withheld.

• The Northern Territory News last week reported on a poll conducted internally for the Northern Territory’s bitterly divided Country Liberal Party government, which found it at risk of losing all but one of the 13 seats it still holds in the 25-seat parliament after the recent resignation from the party of Araluen MP Robyn Lambley. The survey of 1154 respondents reportedly had Labor leading 59-41 on two-party preferred, pointing to a swing of 15%, and found many conservative voters of a mind to abandon the CLP in favour of independents. Parliamentary Speaker Kezia Purick was found to be better placed to retain her seat of Goyder if she ran as an independent, while Gerry Wood, the independent member for Nelson, was rated as the territory’s most popular politician with a net approval rating of plus 46%. Robyn Lambley was credited with a net approval rating of plus 10%, whereas Chief Minister Adam Giles and Treasurer David Tollner respectively scored minus 37% and minus 43%. Labor leader Michael Gunner was on plus 13%, and held a 16% lead over Giles as preferred chief minister. The poll also found only 18% of respondents saying the government was doing a good job, 22% saying it deserved to be re-elected, and 54% saying the territory was heading in the wrong direction.

Preselection news:

• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that Labor’s candidate for the seat of Brisbane is Pat O’Neill, a 34-year-old serving army major and veteran of two tours in Iraq, who if elected will become the first openly gay member of the House of Representatives. O’Neil won preselection ahead of Clayfield solicitor Philip Anthony. Brisbane is held for the Liberal National Party by Teresa Gambaro, who won the seat from Labor’s Arch Bevis in 2010. Gambaro is set to face a preselection challenge from National Retailers Association chief executive Trevor Evans, having put noses out of joint with her frequent criticism of Tony Abbott.

• A preselection held the weekend before last confirmed Sophie Mirabella as the Liberal candidate for Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. Rob Harris of the Herald-Sun reports that Mirabella prevailed in the preselection ballot over Wodonga businessman Kevin Ekendahl by 126 votes to 66. Mirabella will also have to contend at the election with a yet-to-be-chosen candidate from the Nationals, with the Border Mail reporting local party members Marty Corboy and Bernard Gaffney are expected to nominate. There has apparently been talk in the party of the seat being contested by Steph Ryan, who won the new seat of Euroa at the November state election, although it seems she is understandably not interested.

Promotion:

• Last week I had a paywalled article on Crikey on the terrible year that opinion polling has had internationally, having progressively dropped the ball in Israel, Britain, Poland and Denmark. Since then, there has been a new entry on the list with the referendum in Greece, at which pollsters heavily underestimated the “no” vote – although in this case, Nate Silver is more sympathetic.

• Also by me in Crikey recently for subscribers only: a look at the wild inconsistency in this week’s poll results for the Greens, and the obstacles facing Tony Abbott with respect to the timing of the next election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,266 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  3. [89
    meher baba

    (were the ALP to) expunge all right faction members/unions and veer as far to the left as it possibly can… it would put the party in a death spiral battle against the Greens for the same political space, with the Greens holding all the aces…

    With the Coalition vacating the political centre in a big way…it’s imperative IMO that Labor do all that it can to seize the middle ground.]

    Fear not, mb. Labor is a centrist party. Even if it wished to take a detour to the Green-left or the LNP-right, it cannot hope to do so and remain a relevant choice as an alternative Government. Labor’s focus is on the material economic and social circumstances of working people, broadly defined, and on using the capacities of the state to improve these circumstances. This is hardly going to change.

    I know shamefully little about Tasmania, but in WA the nomenclature of left/right doesn’t seem to carry a lot of meaning among MPs, though, for sure, the terms carry more weight in some unions. The factions seem to be more a way of distributing power than deciding policy.

  4. Stoljar once again doesn’t get the answer he wanted. Doesn’t like ‘context’. “You didn’t answer the question.”

  5. Interesting comments from Bob Hogg calling for Shorten’s resignation. One principled individual at least left in the Australian Labor Party.
    Although it was nice to see the Combet take time out from coal seam gas lobbying to defend Shorten.

  6. lizzie

    Stellar does not understand awards and the negotiations needed so is coming unstuck.

    It explains the whole thing we say before Shorten appeared on the stand that the whole EW thing does not have a smoking gun as far as we can see.

  8. “@BuzzFeedOzPol: Bill Shorten hasn’t sipped on any water yet. More to come. #TURCShorten”

    Hah! still paying out on the Australian 😀

  9. guytaur

    He’s asking auditor type questions on individual invoices, always implying shonky practices. You’re right, he’s refusing to understand the whole picture of union/workplace interaction.

  10. Lizzie

    And mind you these invoices are from 10 years ago. By law you are only require to keep them for seven years in any case

  11. Shock, horror! Company puts advertising in workers’ magazine. Bill says been happening for over a hundred years. This deep digging must have been part of the millions the Commission costs.

  14. Bob Hogg: along with his missus, another former booster of “Hero to Most” Rudd. Now following-up Kevin’s kick to Shorten’s nuts on TKS with his own karate chop in the guts.

    Labor rats: doing the grunt work of the political right for over 100 years.

  15. Greg Jericho retweeted
    Kristina Keneally ‏@KKeneally 2m2 minutes ago

    Here we go again – apparently Bill should be responsible for the invoices of the Vic Branch of the AWU after he left. #TURC

    I would call this a fishing expedition by the liberals and media.

  16. “@Pollytics: What do you say, Mr Shorten, to the proposition that the pictures of so called “workers” in your journal were actually AWU staff?! Huh, huh.”

  23. Andrew Landeryou
    Andrew Landeryou – ‏@landeryou

    Truth stranger than fiction: Abbott spends $80M of public money on #TURC which attacks ex-union-leader for being insufficiently militant

  25. Ouch

    [Andrew Landeryou
    Andrew Landeryou – ‏@landeryou

    Bob Hogg is 77-years-old, shares all of Maxine McKew’s antipathies and has been going off on Facebook about them for a month. Sad. #auspol]

  26. [Andrew Landeryou
    Andrew Landeryou – ‏@landeryou
    Dodgy $toljar trying to establish that union journals and training are somehow corrupt. This really is a sad, venal useless exercise #turc]

  29. citizen at 22

    This is what Grace Collier provided to the HR Nicholls Society:

    [Grace Collier
    At the age of 21, whilst an employee within Marketing at Telstra, Grace was identified by Officials within the Community and Public Sector Union as an individual with leadership talent for the organisation of labour and workplace activism. Inducted into the ACTU’s special training and development program, Grace began as a rookie Organiser with The Australian Services Union.

    Subsequently, rejected by the BLF and the CFMEU on the grounds of being “a girl and too small”, she eventually secured a position as Organiser with the Storeman and Packers Union; commonly referred to as ‘the Packers and Wackers’

    During the great dispute between Patrick and the MUA, Grace played an instrumental role in the Queensland section of the resistance movement and was one of the core group arrested and charged for her role in operations. However, upon the election of the Labor Government, all charges against Grace were dropped; for which Grace informs me she is now most grateful.

    The road travelled since her early days as a Union Official has been one of growth and challenge as Grace has navigated through several strategic career moves that have propelled her to her current role as a partner and advisor to boards and top-level executives.

    Grace formed Industrial Relations Consulting in 2003. Since then, each project Grace has undertaken has been stamped with her individual style; she conceives and steers strategic long-term visions for her clients while simultaneously micro managing the fine detail. ]

    Make what you like of her and her ego.

  31. TPOF

    Re Grace Collier. As the saying goes, if you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all.

    Save to say, she is a nutjob. 😀

  34. “@ccroucher9: After criticising the Shenhua Mine decision Barnaby Joyce has pulled out of scheduled event with Tony Abbott this morning @9NewsAUS”

  37. DF @ 50

    The reason given was that this person was a part-time office worker whom the Commission had no interest in. She was fearful that the mere mention of her name would be a huge smear, given that this whole exercise is a vile smear.

  39. OK here is an important matter.

    When discussing any political issue it is vital that we use correct and accurate terms so that we can have a common understanding.
    We need to agree on definitions on key terms.

    So what is Abbott’s TURC?

    Is it a ‘witch hunt”?

    From Wiki:
    1. Witch Hunt
    [A witch-hunt is a search for people labelled “witches” or evidence of witchcraft, often involving moral panic or mass hysteria…
    From at least the 1930s, the term “witch-hunt” has been used figuratively to describe activities by governments … to seek out and expose perceived enemies]

    Or is it a “kangaroo court’?

    2.Kangaroo Court

    From Wiki:
    [ A kangaroo court is often held to give the appearance of a fair and just trial, even though the verdict has in reality already been decided before the trial has begun. Such courts are typically run by authoritarian governments]

    Or…
    3.Both?

  40. victoria

    I agreed with Windsor before this. However this latest news may change things. What if Joyce was blindsided and it was just an Abbott Hunt decision?

    Of course Joyce did nothing he knew nothing about it. That is the other option. I don’t believe Joyce is the smartest tool in the shed but I do think he knows what is in his political interest in keeping his seat. I could be wrong, but I can see this scenario.

  41. From Last thread.

    bemused@1455 on Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor | The Poll Bludger

    Arrnea Stormbringer@1403

    @ Jolyon Wagg, 1395

    Maybe if the self-serving, class-traitor Labor Right hadn’t had the nuts of the ALP National Conference in a vise since the late 70s, the Labor Party would still be a party that the likes of Curtin, Chifley and Whitlam could be proud of.

    That has been undone this year, but I can’t help but wonder if it’s too little, too late. Especially discouraging is the failure of the Left faction to come up with a concrete policy on boat arrivals ahead of the Conference later.

    This comment alone shows the depths of your delusion.

    Chifley took on left wing unions and put troops into the coal mines.

    Whitlam was from the Labor Right and was attacked ferociously at times by the Labor left. He has become a hero of the left only since his period in office.

    I am no friend of the Labor right, particularly the NSW version, but you just mythologise history.

  42. Socrates at 21

    I don’t care whether the subject is Bill Shorten or someone I really despise, like Mark Latham, or anyone else who has been associated with the Labor Party.

    This Royal Commission is a huge abuse of power by this Government that strikes at the heart of our democracy. It is using this commission to weaken its opposition by smearing them. It is using the most powerful apparatuses of state intended to root out the most serious problems in our society to play politics.

    If you think there is moral equivalence between getting Bill Shorten and a significant and appalling abuse of power you need to check the settings of your own moral compass.

  44. “@bkjabour: A spokesman from Barnaby Joyce’s office said the PM had to reschedule joint presser in Grafton and Joyce couldn’t make the new time. #auspol”

    Well my scenario true or not boils down to the same thing. Joyce is doing nothing. Doesn’t have the balls.

  45. Victoria @ 81 – I think Windsor sold a portion of his family land that either wasn’t very fertile/arable, or it may have even been rocky, hilly country. I vaguely remember him saying something about that sort of land being fine to mine cos it was useless for farming. My memory isn’t what it was tho so maybe I’m mistaken.

    Its a common attitude among farmers – if the land is good for growing food then don’t grow timber on it or dig it up, but otherwise who gives a stuff.

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