Two new polls, including the first Newspoll conducted under the wing of Galaxy, show no signs of change in the relative standings of the two major parties, and record both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten sinking on personal approval.
The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers also adds to the weight of surging support for the Greens, but is otherwise largely unchanged on last time. Both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor by two points to 35%, and the Coalition by one to 39% – making room for a two point increase for the Greens to 16%. Labor’s two-party preferred support is at 53% on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively amounting to a one-point drop and no change. Both leaders have taken a hit on personal approval, with Tony Abbott down four points on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down six to 35% and up eight to 55%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened from 42-41 to 43-39. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.
The Newspoll result for The Australian has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings of 33% approval and 60% disapproval are the worst he has recorded from any pollster in about two months, while Bill Shorten’s respective figures of 28% and 54% slightly shade the last Newspoll as his worst numbers ever. The two are level on preferred prime minister at 39% apiece. Given that this is the result of an entirely new methodology, combining automated phone and internet polling with a sample of 1631 (compared with the old Newspoll’s interviewer-administered landline phone polling and samples of around 1150), comparing it with previous results is more than usually unilluminating.
130
The Betoota Advocate is a notorious satirical spoof website. It has featured on Media Watch as such.
Did some quick math, and the TPP by primary vote for each Federal poll released this week thus far:
Ipsos: 53.1 to Labor
Newspoll: 52.6 to Labor
I included that 0.14 Lib/Nat preference annoyance in both polls.
First Essential, now this result. Growing evidence for the hypothesis that the strategy isn’t working.
The electorate seems to be speaking pretty clearly: the more the PM gets in their face, the more they turn off. All the carry-on about death cults, etc is a turn-off. A significant proportion of voters see right through it and conclude that the government is trying to play them. They won’t have it.
I wasn’t expecting this response to be quite so strong but it seems to be there. If it continues on for much longer, the backbench rumblings will come back.
Gee, this on top of the Saints’ 25 goal thumping of the pig’s brain injectors sparking rumours of Hird’s d looming departure. What a day! Makes it hard to be an atheist!
Actually it makes sense banning his side from sitting on the panel on Q&A. They do embarrass themselves, and are often laughed at by the audience.
On vulnerability of ALP inner city seats – Greens taking them against popular incumbents is unlikely but ALP supporters in such seats are getting very browned off with ALP not standing for anything.
Why is this not the story?
[@sprocket___: Abbott Disapproval: IpsosPoll 59% NewsPoll 60%. Both have ALP well ahead on 2PP. Abbott was given 6 months to improve, 1 month left #auspol]
MSM trying to shift focus to Shorten is myopic.
Mr Abbott telling his Ministers to cancel Q&A appearances provides insight on several points.
First, the control freakery on the part of his office which helped kick along last February’s unpleasantness is obviously still alive and well.
Secondly, yet again he shows that he lacks basic political judgement. The argument about Q&A always had a limited shelf life, and by now is pretty much dead as far as the public is concerned, and yet here he is harping on about it still. It just feeds the public perception that the man is obsessive, and always needs to be having a fight with someone.
Most of us have probably encountered such personalities before. People can’t stand them, because they are the types who wreck any workplace, club or committee.
Anyone who saw Barnaby Joyce’s blathering performance on Insiders this morning would not be surprised that he has been banned from Q&A by the Libs. He was hopeless and cannot be trusted over a full hour. That is the real problem, although it is being done under the cover of “banning” the show itself.
[the backbench rumblings will come back]
especially with the potential for worsening economic figures and an ElNino. Risky going early, dont want to wait too long.
Delicious.
[If it continues on for much longer, the backbench rumblings will come back.]
And the 6 mths he was given to turn it all around keeps ticking down.
a great way to avoid scrutiny?
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/qa-fallout-tony-abbott-orders-frontbench-ministers-to-boycott-abc-show-20150705-gi5olb.html
kennett boycotted the abc right up to his disastrous ‘I’ll just sit here and have a cup of tea’ interview with Jon Faine that many think lost him the election.
Phil Vee:
I could barely understand a word Barnaby said this morning. But having said that, I have seen him on Qanda before and he wasn’t too bad being able to play to a live audience of normal people.
[156
sprocket_
Why is this not the story?
@sprocket___: Abbott Disapproval: IpsosPoll 59% NewsPoll 60%. Both have ALP well ahead on 2PP. Abbott was given 6 months to improve, 1 month left #auspol]
Abbott’s net-sat is life-affirming for everyone who can’t stand him. We are not alone!
If the Q&A producers had any gumption, they’d have an empty chair at the table, and put a “Barnaby Joyce” label in front of it.
163
The Government`s scare tactics failing and Abbott polling so badly on the personal measures gives one faith in democracy.
You have to put in more effort and have more credibility than this government to fool the majority of the Australian voters.
[Neil McMahon
Neil McMahon – @NeilMcMahon
To save you the trouble of wading through Oz and Fairfax poll stories to find the actual 2PP – Labor leads 52-48 #Newspoll and 53-47 #Ipsos
5:15 AM – 5 Jul 2015]
Ha, the desperation to deflect from Abbott and the government’s appalling numbers is palpable isn’t it?
ratsak
It is indeed
pedant
Nah, the strategy should be a polite “We invited the Minister for X to appear. As he refused, we invited the Shadow Minister instead.”
Although in this case it means Fitzgibbon…
zoomster
Fitzgibbon was on qanda last week
Meher,
I’d like to believe that not only are the voters seeing through the Abbott gambits, but also seeing through the media that brought him to them in the first place (all additional help from Labor noted) and are still doing their darndest to polish him up.
Of course it’s probably only wishful thinking, but the sales team aren’t having much luck pushing the product any more.
Q&A should not screen until the ban is lifted.
That’ll f’ ’em.
“The usual programming can not be shown as the government are a bunch of tossers. We will resume normal programming when the government come to their senses and stops trying to drag the country into an Orwellian abyss.”
Would it be possible that News Ltd thought a plan to leave Leadership/Election to the last minute before a snap election, where it is too late for any other parties to do anything about it?
back out to 80+ seats for Labor on bludgertrack from these Bilbo?
Glad to know Newspoll is bringing some variety to the polling schedule, in contrast with the lopsidedness last FY where one week was full of polls and the other just with Essential.
Millenial
There are three ALP seats which on current voting patterns are at risk of going to the Greens:
Batman
Wills
Grayndler
Also a strong greens/Lib preference deal could deliver Melbourne Ports to the libs
Longer term Gellibrand Sydney and Richmond could be at risk, while , Mayo, Ryan, Brisbane and even Wentworth and North Sydney could be won from the Libs.
While they are a long way from ever claiming the seats, it would seem that in Sydney’s North Shore seats, Bradfield, McKellar and Wahringah, the greens look set to become the second party, ousting Labor.
Wild prediction: Shorten will acquit himself relatively well at the RC, the ALP conference will throw up nothing too controversial and Murdoch papers (or at least the Oz) will take the opportunity to save face and turn decisively against Abbott and try to back the winning horse for the next election. The Bolts of the world will still fume and not understand what’s happening.
#wecandream
daretotread @ 176
Clearly you’re not from Melbourne. The Greens don’t have a hope of winning Batman or Wills. Yes, their southern ends (closest to the City – Northcote and Brunswick respectively) are very good for them. But the further north you go (Reservoir and Fawkner) the territory becomes positively hostile for them.
Melbourne Ports is a better prospect for the Greens than either Batman or Wills.
Tom L @ 177
and if Rupert and the Oz does turn (highly unlikely) Shorten and Labor should tell them to gagf. If they can’t save Abbott then they can’t help Labor and so Labor owes them nothing but pain.
Toby Esterhase
Spot on
[
BK
Posted Sunday, July 5, 2015 at 7:21 pm | Permalink
It’s obvious from the Ipsos poll that Abbott didn’t have enough decorations on his George W Bush flying suit.’
]
More flags; clearly 10 is not enough. More concern trolls; that should help.
Credlin dining with the anti abortion crowd; perhaps that is he solution. More backyard abortions.
And for Melbourne Ports to be in the hunt for the Greens would require the Liberal vote to collapse from first on primaries in 2013 to third on primaries and then deliver nearly 100% prefs to the Greens over Labor. ie not gonna happen.
It occurred to me that the Jackson story lacks credibility because at first it was “HSU = good” but now to maintain her innocence it’s “HSU = bad”.
Likewise with Abbott, three weeks ago it was “ABC= bad”, then a week later “ABC = good”andnow it’s “ABC= bad” again,, with a black ban on ministers appearing thrown in for good measure.
Last year it was “Labor = Debt and deficit” and now it’s “what debt? What deficit?”
Bill Shorten was “Bill = bipartisan”. then he was “Bill = red carpet roller outerer to terrorists”.
Until recently Bill was “Zinger Bill”, now he’s “Bad Bill”. What’s more, the journos even told us the precise date at which he was to go from “Zinger” to “Bad”… they even provided a (laughable) editorial saying he may as well resign as they weren’t gong to change their minds about him.
And we, the Punters, are expected to ride all these conflicting waves and dutifully fill out our Newspoll and Ipsos forms accordingly? Further, we are supposed to believe the TURC has a “surprise” for Bill, when they haven’t had any surprises for anyone yet. They leaked their best shot to The Age and its been downhill since.
Imagine if Shorten HAD resigned when the SMH called for it! What a joke it would have been and how stupid!
Now Abbott’s on the skids, but all they can talk about is Bill Shorten, as if being consistently ahead for 148 out of 150 polls over the past 18 months or so, afollowing an electoral drubbing in 2013 of close to historic proportions, reuniting Labor and neck and neck with the government on National Security is some kind of BAD thing?
The only thing I worry about (although less so nowadays) is the Gallery’s ability to stick to a story no matter what the facts are. Some here have said Shorten should be at 60-40 against Abbott but, if he was, I seriously doubt whether the story would have been any different than “Bill = bad”.
I don’t think there’ll be any surprises at the TURC, although one or two questions may be written up as such. After that, it’s Shorten’s for the taking, as he goes from strength to strength, his policy of matching Abbott’s every move, even out into the spectator fleet (to use an America’s Cup analogy), finally paying off.
If I was a Lib marginal seat holder I’d be making some calls, right now.
Toby Esterhase@179
Melbourne Ports have some overlap with the state seat of Prahran currently occupied by Greens MP Sam Hibbins.
Ratsak
Oh, for sure. It would be the final shark jumping.
Mr Abbott has the potential to go into a real death spiral here: if his leadership comes under renewed pressure, he will be ever more beholden to the arch-conservatives in the parliamentary Liberal Party; but if he finds himself left with no choice but to support their agendas and rhetoric, he will be more and more on the outer with the electorate.
Well we have the answer. What comes after “Get Shorten”
It’s get QandA.
Now there is a level one vote changing issue of I ever saw one.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/qa-fallout-tony-abbott-orders-frontbench-ministers-to-boycott-abc-show-20150705-gi5olb.html
178
The Green vote is increasing in pats of Reservoir and Preston (particularly around the railway and the tram lines). This is happening less in Wills though. Remember that population growth is happening much more in Brunswick than Fawkner and more in Northcote than Reservoir and Melbourne gets drawn further and further back into the city with the population growth. That favours the Greens in Wills and Batman. The Greens are also yet to try their full campaign on Wills and Batman.
[
Simon Katich
Posted Sunday, July 5, 2015 at 10:41 pm | Permalink
Q&A should not screen until the ban is lifted
]
Why; it will be a hell of a lot better show without them.
183
If there Greens were to win Melbourne Ports, it would be on ALP preferences, not Liberal preferences. Like in Prahran in 2014. The Greens are more able to take votes of the ALP and the ALP voters are far more likely to preference the Greens than the Liberal voters are. The ALP is not immune from being overtaken and used for preferences.
pedant:
You can see that happening already with this ridiculous boycotting of Qanda.
So election looming I guess with the ABC QANDA ban!
185
Yes but most of the state seat of Prahran is in Higgins (as is the entirety of the suburb of Prahran). Melbourne Ports is mainly the state seats of Albert Park and Caulfield.
While the press focuses on the irrelevance of leader ratings (both terrible) look at the 2pp!
Some Abbott revival! LOL (@ the faces of oz journos in general)
This the LNP *LOSING* against the Shorten led ALP . Just like the last 18 months
When are you going to get what’s happening, journos?
It’s staring you in the face.
When do we get some results in Greece (although I do t think it makes any difference)
GG
Just saw a photo of Hird after the humiliation against StKilda and noticed Neil Craig with him. Is that man the kiss of death or what?
zoid
[election looming]
I doubt it.
I cannot believe the QandA decision was made. Talk about giving Labor and the Greens a free kick. QandA like it or not is the most popular political oriented television programme.
I think its now a certainty that Abbott will be dumped
The TPP needs to get to 55-45 for the Libs to panic about leadership.
http://news.forexlive.com/!/here-are-the-timings-on-when-well-get-exit-polls-and-results-from-the-greek-referendum-20150704
[We will get exit polls and results for this weekend’s Greek referendum on Sunday (5 July 2015) afternoon from 1600GMT
Xin posted this information on timings for the exit polls and results in another thread … I’ve just copied here (with minor amendments) in case anyone missed it, so kudos to Xin for this:
REFERENDUM TIMELINE for Sunday 5th July:
Polls open – 0500BST/0000EDT
Polls close – 1700BST/1200EDT
First exit poll – Shortly after 1600GMT/ 1700BST/ 1200EDT (US time)
~20% of votes counted – 1800GMT/ 1900BST/ 1300EDT
~50% of votes counted – 2000GMT/ 2100BST/ 1600EDT
~70% of votes counted – 2100GMT/ 2200BST/ 1700EDT
~90% of votes counted – 2300GMT/ 0000BST/ 1900EDT]
It is now 1320 GMT