Two new polls, including the first Newspoll conducted under the wing of Galaxy, show no signs of change in the relative standings of the two major parties, and record both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten sinking on personal approval.
The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers also adds to the weight of surging support for the Greens, but is otherwise largely unchanged on last time. Both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor by two points to 35%, and the Coalition by one to 39% – making room for a two point increase for the Greens to 16%. Labor’s two-party preferred support is at 53% on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively amounting to a one-point drop and no change. Both leaders have taken a hit on personal approval, with Tony Abbott down four points on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down six to 35% and up eight to 55%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened from 42-41 to 43-39. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.
The Newspoll result for The Australian has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings of 33% approval and 60% disapproval are the worst he has recorded from any pollster in about two months, while Bill Shorten’s respective figures of 28% and 54% slightly shade the last Newspoll as his worst numbers ever. The two are level on preferred prime minister at 39% apiece. Given that this is the result of an entirely new methodology, combining automated phone and internet polling with a sample of 1631 (compared with the old Newspoll’s interviewer-administered landline phone polling and samples of around 1150), comparing it with previous results is more than usually unilluminating.
HeeYah! Abbott jumping the shark
[Deputy Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has withdrawn from a scheduled appearance on the ABC’s Q&A, citing a decree from Prime Minister Tony Abbott that his frontbenchers are to boycott the program.
Barnaby was told this tonight and apologised to Q&A that he would not be able to appear
Only hours before withdrawing, Mr Joyce told the ABC’s Insiders he would appear on Q&A on Monday and praised the broadcaser for “dealing properly now” with the fallout from former terror suspect Zaky Mallah’s appearance a fortnight ago.]
http://bit.ly/1TdHgru
ratsak #96
It’s interesting that you talk about inner-city Labor sets being threatened by the Greens; because I checked the electoral results of the 2013 Federal Election, and of all the seats held by Labor at the election, and seats where the Green vote was 15% or greater, there were only 7 seats.
Of those 7 seats, 4 seats were inner-city Sydney seats, and the other 3 were inner-city Melbourne seats.
[ GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 28m28 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll
Constitutional recognition of Aboriginals as 1st inhabitants of Aust: Support 85 Oppose 11
Fantastic]
Yeah … fantastic. Mainstream Australia gets to feel good about itself by making paternalistic decisions for blackfellas yet again. Meanwhile defunding of indigenous legal services (while anti-native title services get a top up), destruction of communities and the intervention continue unabated.
Ancestors
Laura Jayes
13m13 minutes ago
[Laura Jayes @ljayes
Bill Shorten and Tony Abbott hit by popularity nosedive: Fairfax-Ipsos poll | http://theage.com.au http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-and-tony-abbott-hit-by-popularity-nosedive-fairfaxipsos-poll-20150705-gi5ga4.html …]
[Stephen Spencer
Stephen Spencer – @sspencer_63
@ljayes or, to put it another way. Labor retains landslide winning lead, Shorten extends lead as preferred PM….
4:26 AM – 5 Jul 2015]
I reckon Abbott doesnt want front benchers fronting up and being asked about ssm
Henry Ergas got something right once.
Some time ago.
I forget what it was, I do remember it wasn’t anything important.
Anyway about Bill.
I would be fairly confident that he will be damaged popularity wise by the RC.
That is ,after all why that RC exists.
To damage the ALP, unions and the LOTO.
So if they manage to find something, or failing that confect something, it will be shouted from the rooftops incessantly and have an effect on Bill’s netsats.
Some smear, lots of smoke with a spark or two and Press gallery Groupthink echo chamber doing the job it’s paid to do should have a negative effect on Bill and the ALP.
Unless …
Maybe the public is getting over the MSM bullshit led usually by Rupert’s mob but in this case the Fairfax fellas.
There have been hints, Qld election, the last state poll in Victoria, even this poll, that the baleful impact of the MSM may not be what it used to be.
Here try this on for size:
http://insidestory.org.au/why-bill-shorten-and-labor-can-afford-to-ignore-rupert-murdoch
BW @ 99
There is probably not an economic commentator less deserving of respect that Henry Gasbag – although some of his colleagues at Rupert’s Vanity Project do give him a run for his money (Judith Sloan sleazes across my mind involuntarily). I think I’d prefer Andrew Bolt’s views – whatever they were.
[Henry Ergas got something right once.]
I think it was disappearing behind the paywall and sparing us all the potential for accidentally reading his ideological crap dressed up as economics. Unfortunately BW has stolen even that small consolation from us.
Millenial @102: unless I’m missing something, shouldn’t Richmond (NSW north coast) be in that list? A seat that could well fall to the Greens but only when the ALP incumbent retires in my view.
Barney scratched from q&a by imperial decree
shea mcduff #106
I suspect that the RC appearance (and the accompanying MSM commentary) has already damaged Shorten popularity-wise, and is a major factor in his current declining netsats.
Millenial,
I doubt there are any really serious chances for losses to the greens. Tanya and Albo will be pushed a bit if the Libs pref the Greens and fall to third. Pretty hard to see much problem in Wills or Melbourne Ports. Brandt will walk it in again. That might be more a target at the following election to try and get back.
But these are more left leaning electorates so their holders will fly the flag on more left popular issues to keep their votes healthy, but not to the point of being in any way seen to be divisive.
victoria@94
I would think the Nats are on the way out and going extinct. Except perhaps in WA.
Jules at #103
Absolutely.
My understanding is that you have cited the reasons why a very large majority of aboriginal Australians have rejected the constitutional ‘reform’ because it whitewashes the reality.
I need to find out more – this link is just a start.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/06/16/online-poll-finds-majority-black-australia-opposed-recognise-campaign
Kevin Bonham #109
Right you are, it’s one of the 4 inner-city seats on my list.
Have I missed one? Here are the results from the ABC:
Greens 15%-20% vote
Richmond NSW
Syndey NSW
Gillibrand NSW
Greens +20% vote
Melbourne Ports VIC
Grayndler NSW
Willis VIC
Greens Candidate in 2nd Place
Batman VIC
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/abetz-mushrooms-and-shaky-same-sex.html
Abetz, Mushrooms And Shaky Same-Sex Polling
Article is way too long but includes my usual summary at the top. Highlights include some ancient history of Eric Abetz on gay rights issues, and also how anti-SSM polling shows that most opponents of SSM will oppose it whatever the facts concerning child welfare, impact on society and anything else they use as a front issue for their flat-out opposition.
*inner-city Sydney seats
Die Linke (The Left), is also the descendent of the former ruling party of East Germany (GDR), SED, which makes them more Communist than Socialist, and sit to the far left of the political spectrum.
Abbott telling Joyce he can’t go on Q&A is a desperate attempt to win my vote. I am grateful to him of course but it won’t work.
[Bernard Keane
10m10 minutes ago
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
Ipsos poll a real black eye for Abbott. He has relentlessly exploited national security to attack Labor for weeks – and it’s failed.]
[Katharine Murphy
Katharine Murphy – Verified account @murpharoo
@BernardKeane Labor ahead on two PP in 148 of the last 150 polls. That’s some trend we’re having]
No wait, sorry. Richmond’s a Northern NSW seat. Sorry about the confusion.
Abbott is now dictating what programs his ministers can and can’t appear on? He really has lost it.
[Katharine Murphy
Katharine Murphy – Verified account @murpharoo
@BernardKeane Labor ahead on two PP in 148 of the last 150 polls. That’s some trend we’re having]
Good to see a couple of them bucking the groupthink of ‘pox on both your houses’.
Damn it, Gellibrand’s an inner Melbourne seat.
112
After the NSW 2015 result the Greens in NSW will, I presume, be preparing to unleash the full force of their campaigning effort of Grayndler, Sydney and possibly trying it in Page (if not to win at this election, to have a vote more in line with their state level vote). I presume the same in Victoria for Melbourne and possibly Wills and/or Batman.
I don’t consider Richmond much of a target for the Greens at this point as the Nats will always be 1 or 2. Perhaps as KB says once Elliot goes it could be the Greens pushing Labor to 3rd, but that’s pretty long odds I would have thought.
It’s certainly not inner city, but I’d assume Elliot would be in the same boat as the others I’ve mentioned and get out with some left popular stuff even though she’s from the Right. (possibly explains her stumping up for Albo over Shorten for leader). Don’t get much news of that part of the world in Sydney though so I couldn’t say for sure.
Millenial at #111
Yes, you are probably correct. I was going to say ‘right’ but you wouldn’t want that would you?
[Mark Di Stefano
11m11 minutes ago
Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef
“Your PM has declared war on a panel talk show??”
“Yeah.”
“That. That is very weird”
An actual conversation with UK editors this week.]
fess @ 122
[Abbott is now dictating what programs his ministers can and can’t appear on? He really has lost it.]
Is this another Sir Prince Phillip moment?
This is seriously whacko stuff. And very UN-Australian.
Apparently Turnbull is on QANDA this next week.
And also:
Dude Thinking @dudethinking 21m21 minutes ago
“@broomstick33: Woah. Manus Island and Nauru removed from Google Maps http://www.betootaadvocate.com/entertainment/manus-island-and-nauru-removed-from-google-maps/ … #auspol”
Tom,
No doubt they’ll try, but that’s not the same thing as succeeding. Longer term perhaps, but that assumes Labor in government leaks more primary vote. I’m not so pessimistic. So long as they are reasonably competent and have sworn off leadershit they’ll win back a lot of people who will only preference them to get shot of Abbott next election.
Apparently Tim Wilson is already in a taxi headed to ABC studios
[ Abbott is now dictating what programs his ministers can and can’t appear on? He really has lost it. ]
[“a no surprises, no excuses government that says what it means and does what it says.”
MONDAY 2 September 2013 ]
…
[“I want to be the champion of fairness.”
TUESDAY 27 August 2013 ]
TtFaB #125
Yeah, Page isn’t a great target for the Greens, considering their vote was at 6.5% at the 2013 Election, and peaked at 10.8 at the 2004 Election.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/page/
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/results/page.htm
Bevan Shields @BevanShields 6m6 minutes ago Sydney, New South Wales
Alan Jones said a prime minister’s father “died of shame”. Abbott and Co regularly appear. #qanda makes a mistake and there’s a boycott
hypocrites in large volumes.
TPOF:
It’s beyond bizarre.
I would think the prospect of the local members in Grayndler and Sydney becoming ministers in a possible Labor government mean they would be likely ALP holds
or does this behaviour not really exist?
The Australian @australian 2m2 minutes ago
#NEWSPOLL @australian Two-party preferred: Coalition 48 (-1), Labor 52 (+1) #auspol http://bit.ly/1HFc3LH
The first Newspoll in three weeks shows the Coalition primary vote unchanged at 40 per cent. It is the sixth time in the past seven surveys that it has been at 40 per cent or higher.
Labor’s primary vote recovered by three points to 37 per cent — the fourth time in the past seven surveys it has been at this recent high.
Support for the Greens dipped by one point, to 13 per cent, while other parties and independents fell two points to 10 per cent.
Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor has improved its two-party-preferred lead from 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent in the middle of last month to 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent at the weekend.
That represents a 5.5 per cent swing to the ALP since the election and is the 26th consecutive Newspoll where Labor has led in two-party terms.
A separate Ipsos poll published by Fairfax last night gave Labor a 53 per cent to 47 per cent lead after preferences but with Mr Shorten suffering a hit to his personal ratings.
[My understanding is that you have cited the reasons why a very large majority of aboriginal Australians have rejected the constitutional ‘reform’ because it whitewashes the reality.]
Shea @ 114. Yeah that is pretty much it. Its not rejecting it for the sake of it, but whats the point of pretty words without the other issues being dealt with? And we are yet to see the questions that the referendum will present so it may yet be that it is a worthwhile thing. I’m not holding out any hope tho.
I think regardless of the rest there needs to be a separate question that kills the race power.
And replaces it with nothing.
It needs to be separate to any recognition questions.
Also I don’t even know who is at this summit with Shorten and Abbott.
In many ways this referendum is putting the cart before the horse. So much needs to be done and words alone aren’t enough.
[#NEWSPOLL @australian Two-party preferred: Coalition 48 (-1), Labor 52 (+1) #auspol http://bit.ly/1HFc3LH%5D
So how is Rupert’s Vanity Project spinning that to Labor and Bill Shorten’s disadvantage.
shea mcduff #127
Sorry, what you mean by me not wanting to be ‘right’?
Please explain?
And Newspoll (I thought it wasn’t Newspoll anymore?) just confirms that Abbott’s terror, terror, terror hyperbole is doing nothing to shift voters to the coalition.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/swedish-minister-gives-strongest-case-yet-on-why-eu-should-stop-turning-away-asylum-seekers-10366910.html
[According to statistics from the European Commission, Sweden accepted more than 30,000 of 39,900 applicants for asylum last year. Germany accepted 40,000 of almost 100,000 applications, while the UK took in 10,000 of 25,000.
The numbers, Johansson explained, are not huge. “Only 600,000 refugees have come to the EU,” he said. “It may sound like a lot, but how many people live in the EU? Something like 500 million. That’s like one refugee per year being granted asylum to an island of 1,000 people.”]
[It’s beyond bizarre.]
It’s a real political skill to make yourself appear more off the planet than Barnaby Joyce.
[@australian: #NEWSPOLL @australian Abbott’s performance: satisfied 33 (-1), dissatisfied 60 (+4) #auspol http://t.co/Ba4SXxRY2D%5D
And PHIL Hudson’s story leads with ‘Fall in Shorten’s approval’
Bad polls, front bench ban on Q&A and….
[Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull is scheduled to appear on the show next week.]
Malcolm? Malcolm! Get up, stand up….
Short article before the main one at midnight
TPP ALP 52 (+1) L/NP 48 (-1)
Primaries L/NP 40 (0) ALP 37 (+3) GRN 13 (-1) OTH 10 (-2)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-labor-in-lead-but-bill-shorten-at-lows/story-fn59niix-1227429663815
[Newspoll: Labor in lead but Bill Shorten at lows
The Australian
July 05, 2015 10:00PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra
Voter satisfaction with Bill Shorten’s performance continues to dwell at record lows — despite a bounce in support for Labor — as he prepares to face one of his most challenging weeks as Opposition Leader.
Ahead of his appearance on Wednesday at the trade union royal commission, Mr Shorten’s satisfaction rating remains stuck at a low of 28 per cent while his dissatisfaction has hit a new high of 56 per cent, according to the latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian.
Tony Abbott’s satisfaction has also edged lower but remains higher than Mr Shorten’s, with the leaders tied on the measure of who voters would prefer as prime minister.
The first Newspoll in three weeks shows the Coalition primary vote unchanged at 40 per cent. It is the sixth time in the past seven surveys that it has been at 40 per cent or higher.
Labor’s primary vote recovered by three points to 37 per cent — the fourth time in the past seven surveys it has been at this recent high.
Support for the Greens dipped by one point, to 13 per cent, while other parties and independents fell two points to 10 per cent.
Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor has improved its two-party-preferred lead from 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent in the middle of last month to 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent at the weekend.
That represents a 5.5 per cent swing to the ALP since the election and is the 26th consecutive Newspoll where Labor has led in two-party terms.
A separate Ipsos poll published by Fairfax last night gave Labor a 53 per cent to 47 per cent lead after preferences but with Mr Shorten suffering a hit to his personal ratings.
The Newspoll of 1631 voters shows Mr Shorten’s satisfaction rating remained at a record low of 28 per cent, while his dissatisfaction increased by two points to a new high of 56 per cent.]
In the lead up to the 1999 Victorian State election, Kennett censored his MPs.
The Herald Sun ran a front page with Liberal MPs and Labor MPs being asked questions – the Liberal MPs responding with ‘no comment’ and the Labor MPs providing individual answers.
Newspoll
52-48 2PP to ALP
Coalition 40, Labor 37, Greens 13, Others 10
Abbott: Satisfied 33, Dissatisfied 60
Shorten: Satisfied 28, Dissatisfied 56
Better PM: Abbott 39, Shorten 39
1631 sample July 2-5