Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor; Newspoll: 52-48

Two new polls tell a number of familiar stories, with the Greens up, two-party preferred steady, and both Prime Minister and Opposition Leader sinking on personal approval.

Two new polls, including the first Newspoll conducted under the wing of Galaxy, show no signs of change in the relative standings of the two major parties, and record both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten sinking on personal approval.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers also adds to the weight of surging support for the Greens, but is otherwise largely unchanged on last time. Both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor by two points to 35%, and the Coalition by one to 39% – making room for a two point increase for the Greens to 16%. Labor’s two-party preferred support is at 53% on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively amounting to a one-point drop and no change. Both leaders have taken a hit on personal approval, with Tony Abbott down four points on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down six to 35% and up eight to 55%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened from 42-41 to 43-39. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.

The Newspoll result for The Australian has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings of 33% approval and 60% disapproval are the worst he has recorded from any pollster in about two months, while Bill Shorten’s respective figures of 28% and 54% slightly shade the last Newspoll as his worst numbers ever. The two are level on preferred prime minister at 39% apiece. Given that this is the result of an entirely new methodology, combining automated phone and internet polling with a sample of 1631 (compared with the old Newspoll’s interviewer-administered landline phone polling and samples of around 1150), comparing it with previous results is more than usually unilluminating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,425 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor; Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. TPOF @ 1394.

    Yep. I spoke to Labor MHR and he said they were copping it from immigrants more than anyone. The issue being ‘why can’t I bring my family, but these people just get on a boat and get to stay’. The idea that you can’t allow people to just get on a boat and come is so overwhelming agreed across our society. That argument is over.

  2. @GetUp: The people speaking out about the atrocities taking place on Nauru and Manus are heroes, not criminals. #qanda

  3. @1360

    1. Labor has no responsibility by hiding behind Coalition Party. Blaming greens is also making Labor having no Responsibility – by the use of blame game and deflection.

    2. Australians elected this goverment so they have no care or responsibility of looking after others, this shows by the blind acceptance of Coalition Party, if Australians were terrified of these policies, they would not accept the secrecy or the transparency of the goverment – which would effect themselves.

  4. ratsak

    I was initially surprised. But the most ardent critics of refugees coming via people smugglers, were migrants themselves. I found it quite jarring, but there we have it. The argument has indeed been
    Lost. The Greens can continue with their care and no responsibility policy. Good luck to them.

  5. P1 @ 1398,

    I’m sure Labor are quite keen for some folks to maybe find themselves answering for their actions. But I’m also sure Labor won’t be making a song and dance about it. They’ll say paying bribes and other illegal activity is out, but that will be a footnote.

  6. P1

    This post was about Labor. Not the Greens not the LNP.

    To be clear I condemn completely the LNP for its policies designed to foster fear racism and division just to win votes.

  7. [1388

    Labor have no choice other than put a bipartisan approach that accepts as it’s basic ingredients:

    1. No unauthorised arrivals to ever be settled in Australia
    2. Offshore processing of any unauthorised arrivals
    3. Maximum effort to prevent any arrivals by boat including turn backs.]

    That is to say….

    1. Australia will abandon the legal principle of non refoulement

    Non-refoulement is a principle of international law which forbids the rendering of a true victim of persecution to his or her persecutor. Generally, the persecutor in mind is a state actor. It is a principle of both the customary and trucial law of nations.

    2. Australia will try to have its neighbours agree to becoming refugee waiting-rooms, as if there are not already plenty of refugees already being “processed” (that is, held in prisons) in these jurisdictions.

    3. Australia will continue to traffic human cargoes into other territories, even if this means trafficking persons who have broken no law into punitive and exemplary detention.

    Great. Australia has become an administrator of a gulag.

  8. I think what irks many run-of-the-mill Aussies – when it comes to AS – is that while many AS claim fear of oppression and possible death in their home countries (and this is on the cards) the said AS are not just seeking safe haven but a preferred safe haven.

    In the case of the boat crew it is Oz and for those chancing their arm in Calais, it is the UK.

    Same applies from those from Central America passing through Mexico on their way to the US.

    Many on their way here do not want to be in Indonesia, Malaysia or PNG but where they can get on in life – job, education, peace, prosperity and so on. Same applies for those trying to get into the UK. And, who can blame them?

    Many are willing to buy the opportunity and the rub comes when this process circumvents whatever ordered scheme may be established by a host country.

    Some people I know have been trying to get family members in from Argentina for some years now to no effect – despite having to put up several thousand dollars just to get into the process.

    This family are very hostile to AS coming by boat as they see the unfairness of the entrance of these souls while those working through channels are getting nowhere.

    Nobody said any of this is easy.

  9. [1355

    There is nothing inherently ‘right’ or correct about one’s principles. My first principle is that national cohesion is essential. Apparently unconstrained arrivals of self-selecting unscreened immigrants in large numbers threatens that cohesion fundamentally, despite the real sympathy due to the circumstances of many of them.]

    The “national cohesion” argument is tosh. It is the same line that Enoch Powell and Pauline Hanson deployed. It is the same false argument that was used to erect the White Australia argument 120 years ago.

    The use of the description “unconstrained arrivals of self-selecting unscreened immigrants in large numbers” is also emotively loaded. It’s a revival of Pauline Hanson’s phrase, “We’re being over-run…”

    This is to succumb to xenophobia, pure and simple. It “catastrophises” the dynamics and validates the use of fear in the construction of so-called “policy”.

    It is the fabrication of fear and exaggeration of “threat” that not only permits the use of exemplary violence against refugees, it practically insists on the use of such violence.

  10. [No my argument is that Australians are not racist by nature but fearful of the other like anyone else in the world.]

    What do you base this on guytaur? Are you white by any chance, cos in my experience the only people who say what you said are white and have never experienced the pervasive racism that underpins Australian society.

    Its fair enough to say not all Australians are racist by nature. I agree with that, but a large chunk are. And really much of the population of earth is too given the way humans treat each other.

  11. Victoria @ 1395 – its unbelievable, well not so much unbelievable as disappointing. Especially from Dawn Fraser, who was a brat herself and was suspended from the Australian Olympic team for 10 years for being a pain in the backside.

    What a comment. So many Australians have at least one parent born overseas. I think it was 44% at the last census.

    Then again Fraser did express support for Pauline Hanson once upon a time. I think you have a point about the national climate encouraging arseholes to speak their mind.

  12. jules

    Apparently she has clarified her remarks. Wtte that what she meant is “that if they dont want to be Australians, they should leave”. Next question would be did Kyrios say he didnt want to be Australian at any stage?

  13. David DWH

    You Do realise that “the crazy” finance minister is one of OURS. He taught at Sydney uni for 11 years.

  14. 8m8 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Laura Jayes on Sky thinks furore over Dawn is ‘political correctness gone mad.’
    Laura said few weeks back she grew up in Sutherland.

  15. the growth of the Greens primary vote from under 9% to the current 16% suggests growing numbers of voters are tired of the defacto Grand Coalition of Labor and the LNP on major policy areas: eg asylum seekers, national security, tax reform and so on. If this trend continues upwards to about 20% we can expect a number of Labor and some Liberal seats to be won by the Greens at the next federal election….now that would make for an interesting development!!

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