BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains a mild improving trend for Labor, albeit that it does so on the strength of a single opinion poll for the week.

The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.

Other news:

• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.

• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.

• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.

• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.

UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. [Sorry, “The weight of the evidence suggest that this must be Africa” — although I’m quite fond of the Australian origin theory, it doesn’t seem to be backed by much evidence (as yet).]

    Z – yeah. Every creation story I’ve come across in Australia talks about indigenous people coming from “here” except one. (I haven’t exhaustively checked this out but an elder and old friend of mine reckons he had, and after he mentioned it i kept my ears open and so far he is right.) That is the story or the arrival of the 3 brothers at Evans Head in NSW, after a massive calamity, which at one time we speculated may have been the Toba volcano.

    I love the idea of humanity originating in Australia but I’d really like to see some evidence.

  2. It must be the killing season.

    The Daily Tele writes that now Mark Scott’s job is up for grabs.

    No reason, just that he’s “exasperated” the Abbotteers.

    This is the first time I have seen a Killing Season “Leadership Doubts” bootstrap campaign, switched from one person (Bill Shorten) to another (Mark Scott).

    They’re both traitors, of course, but who to finger for the chop?

    The pickings are so rich… nests of traitors, decitizenable graffiti artists, seditious journalists, bludging mothers, leaners, young home buyers without a good job, homosexuals, wind turbine artists, boat lovers, red carpet rollers, halal gluttons, disability pensioners, kids in schools, their parents, their teachers, union thugs who don’t even care enough about the workers to go on strike so they can wreck a $2 billion project.

    I mean: WHAT’S AUSTRALIA COMING TO?

    All of the above have been selected for vilification, heckling, bastardization, intimidation, bullying, and plonking wowserism by the Tele and THEY STILL DON’T GET THE MESSAGE!

    Don’t they know it’s the killing season? Don’t they know that this is the time of the year when journalists call for resignations and sackings? Do they dare defy the power of The Daily Telegraph and its millions of readers in Western Sydney?

    WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE POWER OF THE BOGAN?

    If someone doesn’t get sacked soon, I’m off to New Zealand.

  3. [I don’t think a court would consider “in the service of” to mean someone who provides any service.]

    Australian Federal courts have a history of applying very restrictive interpretations of laws that have the effect of limiting rights and freedoms, especially when those limits are imposed by executive action or automatically. The High Court, as currently constituted, is particularly strong on this. I think very few losses of citizenship will survive court interpretations of the legislation.

  4. ToBeAdvised:
    [Kathy as we know is innocent until proven guilty]

    ROFLMAO. That’s priceless coming from you. Haven’t been the recipient of a ‘charity shag’ have you?

  5. [93
    lizzie

    briefly

    I’m no legal beagle, but these measures seem to strongly echo mandatory sentencing, which the right wing loves, but lawyers regard as too restrictive.]

    Yes, I agree. It’s also about trophy-taking, or, really, setting traps for more potential political hostages.

    I doubt that such measures would have any effect on a serious would-be fighter. I’ve no knowledge about this, but it seems to me that a dual national who’s willing to give up their life in a revolutionary war is unlikely to be deterred from that by the risk of losing citizenship.

    Abbott is specializing in exclusion, expulsion, rejection, secrecy and denial. They are really just about repression, exemplary punishment and fear, and degrade the political culture.

    In the end, they are simply another installment in the self-defeating rule of the reactionary.

  6. [Kathy as we know is innocent until proven guilty]

    😆

    Kathy, as we know, is doing her damnedest to avoid appearing at all.

  7. I really should demand my HECS back on those history electives I did at Uni. They swore to me that the term “Ancient history” only applied to the period before 1000AD. So very wrong. Turns out something becomes ancient history in only two years:
    [Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek said lying was never acceptable, but dismissed the story as “ancient history”.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-25/bill-shorten-regrets-prime-minister-comments/6571668

  8. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 25, 2015 at 7:13 am | PERMALINK
    Morning

    Abbott says no one should live in fear and dread.]

    A pity the hypocritical bastard doesn’t apply that to the poor buggers being violated on Nauru and Manus.

  9. About constitutional recognition of aboriginal people. Not all blackfellas support it. Many see it as yet another colonialist imposition on them.

    Here’s what the Aboriginal Provisional Government thinks.

    [The Recognise campaign, backed by both the Coalition and Labor, operates on the assumption that Aborigines are Australians and that we want to be Australians. We never agreed to become Australians, to become citizens of the colonial nation built upon the genocide of our people and theft of our land.]

    If you want to recognise aboriginal people perhaps recognition that blackfellas do not necessarily want white Australia making decisions for them is part of that.

    On a completely unrelated note.

    Given the way the current federal government is going its possibly worth applying to the APG for political asylum.

  10. Zoomster

    Africa appears to be the origin of one important strain of human genetics but it is by no means the only candidate.

    The problem of course is deciding just what is “human”

    A lot of people, including many with a religious bent want to believe that one morning “humans” arrived, complete with modern features of speech, big brain, no body hair, upright walking etc. This makes us somehow different from Ape species.

    The reality is of course that the separation into different species occurred usually very slowly and only becomes complete when very long periods of TOTAL geographical isolation occur in combination with some genetic change that prevents interbreeding.

    The new data suggests that there were say 1.5 million years ago 4- 5 distinct regional populations evolving independently. Some of these populations may have been interbreeding even with Chimps or gorillas for long periods or EVEN after the original split form ancestral “human” line.

    However as in all cases of evolution, a family becomes isolated for a generation or three and are forced to largely incestuous relationships. If by chance they have a positive mutation eg stronger, cleverer, cold resistant, more melanin or less melanin, etc they will thrive and when circumstances allows intermingling with other populations, people being such (and male aggression being common) the stronger, cleverer newcomers will get all the girls so the positive genes of the family isolates will spread rapidly for a few generations. Usually the maternal DNA will spread more slowly.

    So too with humans, so we can be reasonably confident that one of the lucky positive mutation tribes came galloping out of Africa. However that is still just a tiny bit of the story.

    What we DO KNOW is that the most genetically distant MODERN peoples are Mbuti in Africa and some tribes in New Guinea (I am basing this on Cvalli Sforza which may be out of date).

    This tends to put one of the ancient human “splits” in a line between Central Africa and New Guinea. it could be at either end, or somewhere in the middle eg India.

  11. Surprised and impressed by Ricky Muir’s contribution to the terrorism debate

    [While I completely agree that 50 Australians fighting abroad is devastating, the reality is there are over 23 million Australians who have not and will not ever consider these acts; 23 million people who have a right to freedom, privacy and the presumption of innocence.]

  12. I did a bit of browsing various legal sites and experts last night in attempting to understand the implications of the Citizenship Bill.

    1 Regarding the no-natural-justice clause.

    Although the HC has not expliicily and specifically spoken on this, the view of experts is that based on a WA Supreme Court case (Seiffert) and 2 HC cases (Saeed more recently and Kioa a while back), it is available to legislators to exclude the Common Law based natural justice, but only if the legislation contains explicit, express, unambiguous intent to do so.

    This new Bill does that, in explicit terms, so it is likely the bastards will get away with that.

    2. Regarding Judicial Review of Administrative (ie in this context, Potatohead decisions).

    The Judicial Review Act 1977, s5 (1) lists the grounds on which a decision can be judicially reviewed. Subsection (h) states “that there was no evidence or other material to justify the making of the decision” as grounds for appeal.

    This Bill holds that Potatohead informs an OS terrorist that he has become aware that the terrorist has self renounced his citizenship by fighting etc and thereby confirms that he is “gone” as a citizen. Even though this Ministerial action is couched in terms of it being in nature a mere confirmatory notice to the terrorist it is arguable that the Minister is actually making a decision.

    That Potatohead has “heard” that there is evidence that the guy has self renounced by fighting and writes to tell him so arguably requires a “decision “by Potatohead. Otherwise how can Potatohead decide to confirm to Ahmed that he has self renounced, yet come to a different conclusion about Mustafa (and not issue a confirmatory letter to Mustafa). Is Potatohead really not making an administrative decision here ….. to me this is a very open question.

    A remaining issue however concerns how and when a challenge to the legislation might arise. Will it require someone OS who has had a confirmatory letter to seek redress? Why would they do so if b other legislation they would go to gaol on return anyway? is there an avenue for the legislation to be challenged locally and quickly?

    Of course as others and I have previously stated, Abbott is probably not too concerned about a challenge, given the timing. Firstly, he’s getting his payoff right now by the use of fear “hyperbole” to con a dumb electorate. Secondly, there may have been an election before the HC ever presents a judgement, and the matter will have already provided him with election campaign ammo.

  13. What to believe

    [Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields
    After urging ABC not to run the terror maps, ASIO now says ‘the content of the documents did not compromise national security’ #auspol]

  14. Psyclaw

    Hence why Labor are supporting the legislation. And whilst some people are pissed off with Labor and their me tooism on this, i reckon it was the right course

  15. Quote of the day goes to Ricky Muir.

    [If our government has a desire to strengthen laws they should do so factually and calmly, not by spreading fear – that is doing the job of the terrorist.]

    (Cheers TPOF @ 69.)

  16. dtt

    [The new data suggests that there were say 1.5 million years ago 4- 5 distinct regional populations evolving independently]

    What new data? You haven’t provided any.

    The regional theory is inherently racist, not supported by reliable data (you’re welcome to provide some, so far you haven’t) and side steps the main point – that all members of a species, by definition, share a common ancestor.

    In our case – and again, you are welcome to provide evidence to the contrary – this common ancestor appears to have been African.

    If humans were interbreeding with chimpanzees (or whatever) than at that stage they weren’t human beings. They were part of a species which was a common ancestor for both species.

    Again the weight of the evidence suggests that this common ancestor also came from Africa.

    To recap:

    Yes, there were waves of human migration, which meant that some established communities intermingled with later arrivals. However, all these communities originally had to have a common point of origin. The common point of origin appears to be, on the weight of the available evidence, Africa.

  17. [Please read all of this article, it is seriously disturbing. The dreadful Dutton is going to be given unprecedented power.

    The Australian Citizenship Amendment (Allegiance to Australia) Act is far more than new law. It defines what it means to be Australian. It gives legal force to who belongs to the Prime Minister’s “Team Australia”.

    Those who support terrorism, even tangentially or unwittingly, are off Team Australia. So, apparently, are protesters who damage federal government property.

    Genocidal war criminals, mass murderers and paedophiles – though – are on the team. In the bill, there is no provision for them to stripped off citizenship, even with a criminal conviction.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-deceit-behind-the-citizenship-changes-20150624-ghwpj6.html ]

    I can understand the reasoning behind that.

    War criminals, isn’t there a coalition minister who is related to a Nazi. Abbott wants to strip children of deemed terrorists of their citizenship, this bloke would get caught up in it.

    Mass murders, well that is easy, all of Australia’s mass murders have been white christians, can’t take citizen ship off them.

    Pedos, another easy one, can’t take citizenship off priests, think of all the good they have done! think hard now.

  18. “@shanebazzi: .@SenKimCarr: I remember @JoeHockey in tears saying he wouldn’t send kids to Malaysia, yet he sat in cabinet that sends kids to Nauru”

  19. [While I completely agree that 50 Australians fighting abroad is devastating, the reality is there are over 23 million Australians who have not and will not ever consider these acts; 23 million people who have a right to freedom, privacy and the presumption of innocence.]

    We need to protect the 23 million against the actions of the 50.

    or as Abbott says we need to destroy Australia to save it.

  20. This may be a bit controversial to return to the contents of the post, but my records show that this the Greens highest BludgerTrack figure. Certainly at least since the 2010 election.

    Does anyone else get the same?

  21. [ guytaur

    Posted Thursday, June 25, 2015 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    “@shanebazzi: .@SenKimCarr: I remember @JoeHockey in tears saying he wouldn’t send kids to Malaysia, yet he sat in cabinet that sends kids to Nauru”
    ]

    “Pre-election, Joe Hockey said, ‘Over my dead body will children be taken to offshore detention’.
    Can you confirm if Mr. Hockey is still alive, and if so, why?”

  22. “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: I rise today to speak in opposition to this legislation”

    @shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8 back in 2012 there was an agreement between @JuliaGillard and @TonyAbbottMHR to reopen Manus and Nauru. Greens opposed that”

    “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: back then we questioned wisdom of pushing through legislation that would have no safeguards, no media access or time limit”

    “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: every single one of those amendments was opposed by Labor govt at the time and the Abbott opposition”

    @shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: these places have turned to camps of hell. children detained for over two years”

    “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: children now suffering in Nauru after being sexually abused and assaulted. One 5 year old girl swallowing razor blades.”

    “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: mothers forced to exchange sexual favours so they can get more time in shower blocks to clean their children #Nauru”

    “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: Moss Review, and now senate inquiry shows conditions in #Nauru are toxic, seedy, inhumane and unconscionable”

  23. “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: one contract with @TransServices for 20 months cost taxpayer $1.2b yet no running water in Nauru, not enough food, no toys”

  24. “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: staff employed by contractors are abusing children, raping women, sexually assaulting women, intimidating them #Nauru”

  25. zoomster@118: “The regional theory is inherently racist, not supported by reliable data (you’re welcome to provide some, so far you haven’t) and side steps the main point – that all members of a species, by definition, share a common ancestor.”

    What seems to have happened in the past few years is the undermining by DNA analysis of the single wave “out of Africa” theory, which has prevailed for many years. This theory, which its proponents asserted with overwhelming self-confidence – including accusing sceptics of “racism” – was that modern humanity is descended from one wave of migration by homo sapiens out of Africa which wiped out all other hominids: neanderthals, homo erectus, etc.

    More recently, some DNA analysis possibly shows elements of neanderthal and homo erectus DNA surviving in people living in some parts of the world. It’s too early to be sure: indeed, the progress of our understanding of prehistory has long involved a paucity of definitive information which doesn’t seem to have stopped experts being very definite about their conclusions: a classic example is Australia’s own Gordon Childe, whose book “What Happened in History” can now been seen as definitively “What Didn’t Happen in History.”

    One final thought. I sometimes find myself in situations of deep political correctness in which I am told to respect the views held by some Indigenous Australian that their original ancestors came into existence on this continent. Apparently it’s racist to not respect these views, but perfectly ok to laugh at the idea that the world was created in seven days and that Eve was formed from Adam’s rib.

    I’m very glad that I’m not politically correct and am free to disrespect any views or beliefs that don’t make sense to me.

  26. TBA (total bloody ???) shows he is on par with his heroes Bolt and Jones for accuracy, stupidity and lack of self reflection or accountability – some great comedy writing today:

    first

    [Such a conspiracy theory knobhead.

    Michael Lawler was appointed by the Gillard Government.

    Getting your “facts” off Independent Australia website are we?]

    then on being corrected

    [So he was probably reappointed during the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Years. Can’t see a public service term being 8 Years.]

    then on being corrected again…..crickets.

    so who’s the knobhead?

    Please have the decency to apologise troll, or you look even more stupid and petty than usual – then again, Bolt doesn’t mind that look, so maybe you’re OK with it.

  27. […Prime Minister Tony Abbott was wrong to demand of the ABC “Whose side are you on?” after the broadcast, and again on Wednesday after the program was repeated. This smacks of populist point-scoring rather than a genuine concern about the security of the nation. Is Mr Abbott’s faith in the power of free speech so feeble that neither he nor the members of his government can puncture Mr Mallah’s opinion, so instead seek to attack the messenger?

    Drawing the line for any freedom is complicated, shown by the proposals to amend the racial discrimination act, which The Age supported but the government chose not to pursue. But it is clear the law is already sufficient to deal with Mr Mallah had he crossed a line to incite violence or hatred on Monday, which he did not.

    Mr Abbott on Wednesday described the ABC as the “supposed national broadcaster”. His use of the word “supposed” suggests a belief that the ABC has a responsibility, perhaps by dint of its taxpayer funding, to toe the government line. Australia would be the poorer if speech were less free.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/free-speech-forgotten-in-the-qa-furore-20150624-ghwoxx.html

  28. “@shanebazzi: .@sarahinthesen8: let’s get time limits, let’s stop children born in Australia being deported to Nauru, legal requirement to report abuse”

  29. Message to all Rudd lovers out there, including those who were rejoicing in recent days on William’s “Killing Time” thread.

    As I predicted in a post on that thread, the confirmation by Rudd and his former staffer of a late night meeting involving Shorten on the night of the Midwinter Ball has caused considerable discomfort for Shorten.

    Why did Rudd choose to do this? It could have been purely out of indiscriminate malice. Or perhaps out of some faint hope that, combined with the largely positive portrayal of him in the show, it might provide the impetus for some sort of a “bring back Rudd” campaign.

    I reckon the latte. It has always been my expectation that this bandwagon would start up sooner or later: possibly over the winter break, when those Press Gallery journos who aren’t off skiing tend to find themselves short of things to write about.

    Rudd is really the gift that keeps on giving to the ALP.

  30. [ Sustainable future

    Posted Thursday, June 25, 2015 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    TBA (total bloody ???) shows he is on par with his heroes Bolt and Jones for accuracy, stupidity and lack of self reflection or accountability – some great comedy writing today:

    first

    Such a conspiracy theory knobhead.

    Michael Lawler was appointed by the Gillard Government.

    Getting your “facts” off Independent Australia website are we?

    then on being corrected

    So he was probably reappointed during the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Years. Can’t see a public service term being 8 Years.

    then on being corrected again…..crickets.

    so who’s the knobhead?

    Please have the decency to apologise troll, or you look even more stupid and petty than usual – then again, Bolt doesn’t mind that look, so maybe you’re OK with it.
    ]

    ….. it will be a cold day in Hell that TBA ( ToryBullshitAlways ) apologies for his continued stupidity – he figures that just because he has one, that it his right to come here every day and act like one.

  31. I was not aware of and am quite surprised to see that there are so many loonies around still contesting ‘out of Africa’ [which by the way never stated a ‘single wave’ nor ‘wiped out all other hominids’].

    Anyway here is an interview with Cann and Stoneking on the 25th anniversary of their paper.

    http://io9.com/5879991/the-scientists-behind-mitochondrial-eve-tell-us-about-the-lucky-mother-who-changed-human-evolution-forever

    This might be an appropriate extract:

    [ Despite all the criticisms of this and subsequent studies of human mtDNA variation, the central conclusion of the study remains unchanged – we have mtDNA data from hundreds of thousands of individuals, complete mtDNA genome sequences from thousands of individuals, and the current view is that the human mtDNA ancestor lived in Africa some 150,000-200,000 years ago. So 25 years on, our view of human mtDNA variation is remarkably similar to what we published. Moreover, our paper brought genetics into the debate over human origins, opening a new line of evidence which ultimately led to the resolution of the debate in favor of a recent African origin of modern humans followed by some assimilation of non-African hominins (e.g., Neandertals and Denisovans) – i.e., “leaky replacement” is currently the prevailing model for human origins.]

  32. Ricky Muir:

    😆
    [If members of the government honestly believe that they have a good policy they should sell it to the people without the unnecessary fear mongering and scare campaigning. If they are so convinced that they are making a decision in the best interests of Australia, they should be prepared to be scrutinised and have a good, calm argument to back up their views – not jump up and down screaming that the boogie man is coming in the hope that everybody will pull the blankets over their head and pee the bed.]

  33. meher

    You would see by the comments on the site you refer to that the majority of comments do not correlate with your views.

    We all have our own opinions about what went on it was there for all to see over three episodes.

    Please allow us all to have our own opinions even when they don’t agree with yours.

    In other words get off your bandwagon.

  34. [As I predicted in a post on that thread, the confirmation by Rudd and his former staffer of a late night meeting involving Shorten on the night of the Midwinter Ball has caused considerable discomfort for Shorten.]

    I think that staffer in Ep 1 or 2 was far more damaging with the ‘trust’ comment.

    Everyone already knew Shorto was up to his eyeballs in the fall of Gillard and Rudd.

  35. “@shanebazzi: .@RichardDiNatale: I rise to oppose this bill, which really is an acknowledgment that the operation of our detention centres are illegal”

  36. My take on operation photo op.

    Its definitely a security breach despite Dutton today trying to make out its Labor’s fault for calling them out with his silly call comments.

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