BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A slight gain for Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the second week in a row, with four pollsters this week producing highly varied results.

It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week. However, there has been no change on the seat projection this time around, with gains for Labor in New South Wales and Victoria counterbalanced by losses in Queensland and Western Australia. Newspoll and Ipsos both provide new numbers for leadership approval, on which both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten record substantial downturns for net approval. However, since this was driven by somewhat peculiar numbers from Newspoll’s swansong, I’d reserve my judgement on that for the time being.

BludgerTrack’s current two-party preferred reading of 52.1% for Labor is a bit lower than the other players in the poll aggregation game just at the moment, with Kevin Bonham and Phantom Trend both having it at 52.4%, and Mark the Ballot being even further out at 52.7%. Our relative weightings for Newspoll and Ipsos may have had something to do with this, but another factor will have been that only BludgerTrack has Essential Research’s weekly samples as separate data points, since Bonham and Phantom Trend have only the published fortnightly rolling average, and Mark the Ballot drops the pollster altogether. You may infer from that that this week’s result was on the strong side for the Coalition.

Also of note:

• Draft boundaries of a redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament have been published, which Antony Green considers in detail. The big change is the effective abolition of the Alice Springs seat of Araluen to make way for the new seat of Spillett in the north of Darwin’s growing satellite city of Palmerston. This has already had political ramifications, as Araluen MP Robyn Lambley cited it as one of her reasons for quitting the Country Liberal Party yesterday to sit as an independent, having intimated that the redistribution has singled her out for special treatment.

• The Lowy Institute has published its annual poll encompassing attitudes towards a wide range of foreign policy issues, which was conducted between February and May from a combined sample of around 6000 respondents by Newspoll and I-view, the latter being a part of Ipsos. Among many other things, respondents were asked to give the government marks out of ten across eight issues, producing a strong 7.1 average for “maintaining a strong alliance with the United States” (if that be deemed a good thing), a fairly healthy 5.9 for “responding to the threat of terrorism”, a perhaps surprisingly soft 4.9 for “handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat”, another 4.9 for “managing Australia’s economy”, and a low 4.0 for “managing the issue of climate change”.

• The Lowy poll also found concern over climate change at its highest level of 2008, the potential electoral ramifications of which I considered in an article for Crikey yesterday. I had another subscriber-only Crikey piece on Friday which took a careful look at Essential Research data concerning perceptions of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,875 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Abbott’s body language is suggesting he’s getting ready to walk off very soon now the questions are getting a bit hotter.

  2. [Actually, Shephard’s comments were really most relevant to the beltway types.]

    Those that use the expression ‘beltway’.

  5. [3769
    Leroy Lynch

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/06/23/essential-voters-back-conscience-vote-dont-like-bribes/

    Essential: voters back conscience vote, don’t like bribes
    Bernard Keane | Jun 23, 2015 12:55PM

    There is strong support for a conscience vote on same-sex marriage, today’s Essential Report shows, while voters disapprove of bribes to people smugglers.]

    the term “bribes” is a misnomer. The crew were hired by the Australian Government to take charge of a vessel with a human cargo and then to sail it to Indonesia. This is just one more instance of Abbott’s participation in the trade in humans.

  7. [Everyone who doesn’t go along 100% with their theory of the world must be a lefty. I thought last night that Ciobo gave a very good imitation of a stuffy conservative with a broom up his bum.]
    No, it’s because no one has a right wing idea too outrageous for them to disagree with. Ergo, if they disagree with it then it must be left wing.

  9. TPOF @3768

    Yes, we are in agreement on a number of things.

    As you have emphasised in your post, I also mentioned safety upgrades in my reply to zoomster.

  12. [@FarrellPF: Zaky Mallah: I stand by what I said on Q&A. Australia needs to hear it http://t.co/bDvYxxWl9m%5D

    Too bloody right. I fundamentally disagree with what Mallah has to say, but if it is not addressed soundly in public and shown up to be rubbish (or partly true – at least as far as rule of law goes), then it goes underground and is shared only between sheep who will vie with each other to be more and more radical.

    Suppressing the fact that people have these views does nobody any good.

  14. Raaraa

    [If you want to bring environmental benefits as a reason to fixing rural roads, then people will rebutt with the point that there will be more cost-effective ways to reduce carbon footprint by fixing the transport situation in the cities.]

    I don’t know why this is addressed to me (is it simply sloppy use of the word ‘you’?) – I have made no comment about the environmental benefits of fixing country roads.

    And please, I’m a former local councillor in an area where roads are It. Don’t lecture me on what needs to be done on country roads.

  17. [After revelations Australian officials secretly bribed people smugglers to return 65 asylum seekers to Indonesia, just 29% of voters approve of the bribes, with 56% disapproving, including 33% of Liberal voters (48% of whom approve).]
    WOW
    48% of coalition voters don’t care if the government disregards local and international laws as long as it makes illegal migrants disappear. There’s your base line for whatever it takes.

  19. Mildly interesting result in the ‘Don’t Know’ column of the ER question about approving or disapproving of bribing people smugglers.
    Greens 6%
    ALP 8%
    Others 13%
    COALition 19%

    Maybe some of the not so rusted on COALition supporters are a bit conflicted?

  20. “@julie_library: .@TonyAbbottMHR whose side r u on? You allowed #MonManis to roam free after asking if he can contact ISIS! #RCnow #whosesideruon”

  21. zoomster@3813

    Raaraa

    If you want to bring environmental benefits as a reason to fixing rural roads, then people will rebutt with the point that there will be more cost-effective ways to reduce carbon footprint by fixing the transport situation in the cities.


    I don’t know why this is addressed to me (is it simply sloppy use of the word ‘you’?) – I have made no comment about the environmental benefits of fixing country roads.

    Look, I’m replying to you accusing me of making that “crap rural roads statement” or something to that effect. I’m willing to let that go since others have addressed those points to you.

    So I’ll just say, when I say “you” I’m just referring to whoever is going to justify fixing the roads, so yes, it’s a sloppy use of the word “you”.


    And please, I’m a former local councillor in an area where roads are It. Don’t lecture me on what needs to be done on country roads.

    There’s so much arrogance in that statement, I’m not even going to bother replying to that one.

  22. Raaraa

    [Look, I’m replying to you accusing me of making that “crap rural roads statement” or something to that effect]

    Well, in that case reply to what I said, rather than replying to what you thought I said.

    [There’s so much arrogance in that statement, I’m not even going to bother replying to that one.]

    And yet you did.

    Arrogance is often simply the knowledge that you do know more about something than someone else. If you are in a position to lecture me on country roads, you’re welcome to lay out your credentials.

    However, I think a lot of what I took umbrage at in your post – seeing it as arrogance on your part that you thought you could tell a country person what needed to be done on the roads they use every day, because of course, we’re too thick to work it out, being rurals and all — is probably due to your misuse of the word ‘you’, which gave the understandable impression that what you meant to be general comments sounded like they were directed at me personally.

    If you weren’t being arrogant, but simply mangling the language in a way that gave me the impression you were, I do apologise.

  23. [I am searching my conscience. Do I dislike Brandis because of his voice and superior demeanour, or is it his actions?]
    You seem a sensible person, lizzie. It would be all those reasons.

  24. [Is it still up to Dutton to judge ‘conduct’?]

    From what I can see of the nrief of legislation no-one decide who’s lost their citizenship, not a court, not the minister. It just sort of, y’know, goes *phfff!* and disappears.

    So now we’ve gone from a court deciding, to the minister deciding, to no-one in particular deciding.

    The minister isn’t saying “I am taking your citizenship away”.

    The minister is saying, “I heard somewhere you lost your citizenship. Gee, that’s tough luck”.

    It’s worse than deciding to take it away. It’s just saying “It’s gone”, without anyone having to do anything.

    There is no process at all to it. The only process comes into it when you try to get a new passport.

    Having just applied for one, I had to produce a birth certificate, a driver’s licence, a Medicare Card and an electricity bill to prove there was a bloke with my name born on such-and-such a date at such-and-such a place, way back when.

    I didn’t have to produce any direct proof of citizenship. I’m not sure there is such a form, or certificate in its own right.

    This would apply to terrorists too, I’d think.

    But what I worry about is who else will this lazy procedure be applied to?

    A crim leaves the country… “Oh, we thought you relinquished your citizenship.”

    An opponent of the government goes for a holiday to Fiji, comes back and, “Gee sir, I can’t seem to see where it says you’re a citizen.”

    Anyone they don’t like can be just dropped off the non-existent list of dinky-di Aussies.

  25. “@ozipetezar: @TonyAbbottMHR You ask “Who’s side is the ABC on” that’s easy Tone, Australia’s, you might try it sometime.”

  26. “@drewsheldrick: PM just apologised for Defence Minister Kevin Andrews absence from #qt. He’s sitting behind him #auspol”

  29. [If you had read my post at 3768 you would have seen this point addressed.]
    No, TPOF, I did not read. This is a limitation of reading through a thread and undertaking other activities. My comments were perfectly correct at the time of reading and responding to your earlier post.

  32. I might add that under “TIME CRITICAL”, the new policy has “no”.

    WTF? I thought this was an urgent National Security measure, requiring 8 flags and a large wedge placed under those who would roll out the red carpet for terrorists (i.e. “Labor”)?

  38. [The more Q asked by journos, the more they found to ask.]

    No worries. If the journos can’t explain the legislation to us we can read the lovely Abbott Govt handouts which will be posted to us next week.

  39. “@LatikaQT: OL BS asks PM TA – can the PM please explain how can it be sensible or mature to cut every single $ from public hospitals? #qt”

  43. [Bernard Keane
    4m4 minutes ago
    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    I trust @TurnbullMalcolm has picked up the phone and called Mark Scott to demand a sacking or two? Or does that only happen on weekends?]

  44. [The take out though is what’s reflected on Bludgertrack and places like Mark the Ballot. The Libs are seriously stuck on somewhere in the 47 – 48% level and nothing they have tried over the last year or more has changed that.

    Their only hope is that Tony is right ( LoL!) with his “Captains Call” that he can turn 48 into 50+ during an election campaign.

    And his other calls have worked out just soooooooo well………]

    Given William uses the primary, and the LNP primary has dropped a point, I expect Bludgertrack will move another tad away from the LNP this week 🙂

    Yeah, I’m not sure why Abbott is so confident of his campaigning skills. He probably got a scare from Rudd’s initial polling bounce and thought it was his effort that pulled it back. The most notable aspect of his last campaign was how much it contradicted what he has since done in government. Not sure he can claim any trust.

    Also, during a campaign the opposition leader doesn’t have to work so hard to get heard.

  45. BB @ 3823

    You raise an interesting point about when the ‘automatic’ revocation kicks in. With the current s35, the citizen is fighting for an army of a nation with whom we are in declared war. However, when they are fighting for a terrorist organisation, or freedom fighting group or whatever, how do we determine when we are at war with. Who are our armed forces who are currently in the Middle East at war with? Daesh? The Free Syrian Army? Indeed, are our military people at war with anyone? Or are they just providing advice to a military force that is at war?

    I suspect that this legislation will be very dodgy indeed and will collapse at the first court challenge – which will just reinforce Captain Chaos’s thesis that you cannot trust our courts any more to ditch the rule of law in favour of political expediency.

  50. [Jay Weatherill is Abbott’s newest bestie.]
    What did Weatherill say about the education green paper to deserve this?

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