It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week. However, there has been no change on the seat projection this time around, with gains for Labor in New South Wales and Victoria counterbalanced by losses in Queensland and Western Australia. Newspoll and Ipsos both provide new numbers for leadership approval, on which both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten record substantial downturns for net approval. However, since this was driven by somewhat peculiar numbers from Newspoll’s swansong, I’d reserve my judgement on that for the time being.
BludgerTrack’s current two-party preferred reading of 52.1% for Labor is a bit lower than the other players in the poll aggregation game just at the moment, with Kevin Bonham and Phantom Trend both having it at 52.4%, and Mark the Ballot being even further out at 52.7%. Our relative weightings for Newspoll and Ipsos may have had something to do with this, but another factor will have been that only BludgerTrack has Essential Research’s weekly samples as separate data points, since Bonham and Phantom Trend have only the published fortnightly rolling average, and Mark the Ballot drops the pollster altogether. You may infer from that that this week’s result was on the strong side for the Coalition.
Also of note:
• Draft boundaries of a redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament have been published, which Antony Green considers in detail. The big change is the effective abolition of the Alice Springs seat of Araluen to make way for the new seat of Spillett in the north of Darwin’s growing satellite city of Palmerston. This has already had political ramifications, as Araluen MP Robyn Lambley cited it as one of her reasons for quitting the Country Liberal Party yesterday to sit as an independent, having intimated that the redistribution has singled her out for special treatment.
• The Lowy Institute has published its annual poll encompassing attitudes towards a wide range of foreign policy issues, which was conducted between February and May from a combined sample of around 6000 respondents by Newspoll and I-view, the latter being a part of Ipsos. Among many other things, respondents were asked to give the government marks out of ten across eight issues, producing a strong 7.1 average for “maintaining a strong alliance with the United States” (if that be deemed a good thing), a fairly healthy 5.9 for “responding to the threat of terrorism”, a perhaps surprisingly soft 4.9 for “handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat”, another 4.9 for “managing Australia’s economy”, and a low 4.0 for “managing the issue of climate change”.
• The Lowy poll also found concern over climate change at its highest level of 2008, the potential electoral ramifications of which I considered in an article for Crikey yesterday. I had another subscriber-only Crikey piece on Friday which took a careful look at Essential Research data concerning perceptions of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten.
ddt
I got into trouble on FB recently by telling a poster who I mistook for a male to “calm down dear”. It’s not the sort of thing I would ever dream of saying to a woman, especially within earshot of her indoors.
While I’m here, can I give a big thank you to Bushfire Bill and Alan Shore, two of the most erudite and entertaining contributors to this blog. There isn’t a journalist in this country who can hold a candle to your work which, just lately, has been exemplary. Personally, I can’t stomach watching TV current affairs or listening to the whining blowhards on talkback radio – it’s bad for my blood pressure, so I appreciate the filter that you guys provide.
Some journos on twitter seem to think an early election may be on the cards
Bernard Keane retweeted
Malcolm Farr
5m5 minutes ago
Malcolm Farr @farrm51
Nothing like the smell of an early election to make a party conference behave
Bernard Keane retweeted
Gabrielle Chan
6m6 minutes ago
Gabrielle Chan @gabriellechan
Tony Abbott presser at 1pm. How many flags?
Bernard Keane retweeted
Andrew Probyn
12m12 minutes ago
Andrew Probyn @andrewprobyn
Abbott describes ABC TV’s QandA program a “lefty lynch mob” in meeting of coalition MPs
Abbott and Dutton about to front a presser announcing citizenship legislation changes. How many flags will this require?
zoom
I think Raaraa makes it clear that the comment is only in the context of that metric, but it’s not the only metric:
[… Yes, the rural regions need some serious development …]
[Abbott describes ABC TV’s QandA program a “lefty lynch mob” in meeting of coalition MPs]
Everyone who doesn’t go along 100% with their theory of the world must be a lefty. I thought last night that Ciobo gave a very good imitation of a stuffy conservative with a broom up his bum.
Daniel Hurst
8m8 minutes ago
Daniel Hurst @danielhurstbne
“We’re not far from an election year. While we’re coming good the other mob are falling to pieces,” Abbott tells party room. @gabriellechan
Think of the most exciting thing that’s ever happened to you and then imagine Greg Jennet reporting it. Wasn’t exciting after all, was it… 😆
[ and Abbott looks way too unworried. ]
Its called denial.
The presser is going to be on fuel tax so it will probably only be a six flagger.
zoidlord@3747
And the difference between this and corruption is…?
[Australia is about to make one of the most important and potentially costly decisions in its history. There are signs it’ll stuff it up.
As it happens, the actions we would need to undertake now aren’t that scary.
We have already promised to do our part to limit the rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees. It’s a commitment we can’t get out of, and nor have we tried. All the nations we compare ourself to have signed up to it, including those with conservative governments such as Britain, Canada and New Zealand.
What’s at issue in the next few weeks is how we do it. Australia is being asked to make a specific commitment ahead of the Paris climate summit later this year. The US has done so. It plans to cut carbon emissions by between 26 and 28 per cent relative to 2005 levels by 2025. Europe plans to cut emissions by 40 per cent on 1990 levels by 2030. China plans to stabilise emissions by 2030.
Australia faces a choice. It can either wind back its emissions quickly, meaning it’ll need to do less in the future, or it can wind them back slowly, making the future task harder. Guess which way it is leaning.]
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/climate-change-australia-prepares-to-blow-its-carbon-budget-20150622-ghty96
BK
According to journos it is a ten flagger!
Yasmin Parry
1m1 minute ago
Yasmin Parry @yasminparry
Nine News reporting raids in Redfern. Assuming this is related?
It’s a TEN flagger!
Being consistently late to appointments (like pressers) says a lot about a person.
Will Tony Jones be arrested for ‘aiding terrorists’?
Hey, they’re really beating it up. Stupid journo asks ‘should the show be axed>?’
RaaRaa, PG and It’s Time
Mea culpa for using the word ‘environmental’ to describe the benefits of pumping money into the Roads to Recovery program. Most people see that word these days in regard to transport purely in terms of the carbon footprint and, on that basis, I agree (as I did in an earlier post) that a much bigger bang for the buck in reducing the carbon footprint could be achieved by public transport measures that take vehicles off the roads.
Looking back on the comments, what I should have drawn attention to is the safety and general liveability benefits of repairing these roads. Unlike WestConnex and the like, fixing these roads will not bring more vehicles on to them – users have no choice because frequent or any public transport along back roads and secondary is not viable. What they will do is reduce the number of deaths and injuries caused by unsafe roads or roads made unsafe too quickly when weather conditions turn poor.
I think that is a worthwhile objective, even if it is not directed much at reducing the carbon footprint. And as Bill Shorten and co pointed out in their press conference, rural and outer suburban drivers, because of the extra kilometres they have to travel because of where they live, pay a disproportionate amount of the excise compared to income or any other measure except road usage itself. In the circumstances it is quite appropriate for them to benefit from extra repairs (not to mention the extra labouring and other jobs that will be provided on site).
Of course, all this depends on the Government agreeing to achieve Labor’s conditions. For all we know they could agree to whatever the Greens want (especially if it is just extending another inquiry) in order to give Labor a political black eye. Or be happy to hand the money back to the oil companies if they think it is better for them politically and financially (the oil companies would be happy to kick back a few dollars to the Coalition in the circumstances, I’m sure).
Looks like that stray 53-47 figure noticed on a different part of the Essential Media site is just an old figure never updated. No change in TPP today.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/06/23/essential-voters-back-conscience-vote-dont-like-bribes/
[Essential: voters back conscience vote, don’t like bribes
Bernard Keane | Jun 23, 2015 12:55PM
There is strong support for a conscience vote on same-sex marriage, today’s Essential Report shows, while voters disapprove of bribes to people smugglers.
A majority of voters oppose the bribery of people smugglers, today’s Essential Report reveals, with more than a third of voters strongly disapproving of the government’s payments to people smugglers to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia.
After revelations Australian officials secretly bribed people smugglers to return 65 asylum seekers to Indonesia, just 29% of voters approve of the bribes, with 56% disapproving, including 33% of Liberal voters (48% of whom approve). Although Labor (74%) and Greens voters (80%) have high rates of disapproval, 61% of “other” voters also disapprove. Only 25% of women approve, compared to 34% of men.
…………..
On voting intention, what had looked like some recent momentum for the Coalition has stalled for the moment. The Coalition primary vote has surprisingly dropped a point to 41%, having steadily built up from its February nadir of 39% to 42% last week. Despite a bad week for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, Labor remains on 39% and the Greens on 10% for an unchanged 52%-48% two-party preferred outcome in favour of Labor.]
@bkjabour: NSW state govt includes this graph in #nswbudget2015 papers to show how much money fed govt is cuttings from health http://t.co/x76CPffyiu
Essential up now. WOW. Gadzooks.
2pp completely unchanged but the Coalition lose one percent in the primary votes.
Given the hint that WB dropped that Essential had moved back to the coalition in last week’s single week polling, it looks like it has gone the other way now.
[So we in the country have to put up with cr*p roads and cr*p public transport because it’s not as good for the environment to spend money here?]
Zoomster, for someone who chides others for lacking reading comprehension or not understanding context when jumping into an ongoing discussion, this is poor form from you.
TPOF offered environmental benefits as a rationale for allocating fuel excise to country roads. A couple of us have criticised this as a justification for spending the money on rural roads. If there are more important reasons then spell them out rather than use an environmental red herring.
[Rex D
Be bold. Be strong. Display conviction.
Although you may not have noticed that the media are attacking Andrews as weak and changeable.]
Onya, lizzie. It seemed to have escaped RD
Nope, looks like Labor has successfully taken public transport off the table: http://www.financeminister.gov.au/media/2015/0523-fuel-excise.html
No finer legal mind in the parliament than George.
:womitous:
Cripes, Abbott just told George Brandis there is no finer legal mind in the Parliament than his!!
Malcolm will love that.
The Prime Minister reassures all Australians that his government has no higher priority than winning the next election.
[Cripes, Abbott just told George Brandis there is no finer legal mind in the Parliament than his!!
Malcolm will love that.]
Mark Dreyfus, who actually earned his silk by actual lawyering, would wipe his bum with the total of Brandis’s legal knowledge – and still need more toilet paper.
The media narrative is that last week was a bad wek for Labor.
It’s just there is absolutely no verification of this view in the polls.
So, perhaps the electorate can see through the sham that is the current debate on terrorism/citizenship and absolutely no one, apart from the froth at the mouth type LNP supporters, are surprised that Bill Shorten used to work for a Union and did deals.
I am searching my conscience. Do I dislike Brandis because of his voice and superior demeanour, or is it his actions?
Is it still up to Dutton to judge ‘conduct’?
GG
We disagree on a few things. I think your 3779 is on the money. Always wise to pay attention to polling and not media spin to see how a party is going.
[no one, apart from the froth at the mouth type LNP supporters, are surprised that Bill Shorten used to work for a Union and did deals.]
The Libs were caught flat footed by Tony Shepherd coming out and saying the deal was good and it was win-win all round.
[It’s not only a sound economic measure, but it also sends a signal (however small; and I would argue against my own interests and suggest that the exise should be increased substantially) to people to think before they drive.
If you want more people to use public transport, then raising fuel prices will certainly help in doing that.]
Yes, it’s possibly the only thing which I have agreed with the Abbott crowd on. How the Greens and Labor, both committed to a price on carbon, could not support it because it was regressive was beyond me. The other delicious pleasure was having Abbott arguing for his carbon tax against his populist instincts.
Whilst the size of the excise indexation is small and is overwhelmed by market fluctuations, it disproportionately focuses the minds of many people on fuel costs and consumption; very much like the CPRS and electricity costs. Electricity usage has gone down across Australia since it was introduced with consequential greenhouse benefits.
Perhaps Abbott will end up being an effective environmentalist, against his own fervent wishes and intentions. 😉
[I am searching my conscience. Do I dislike Brandis because of his voice and superior demeanour, or is it his actions?]
I just hate his face 🙂
[ Given the hint that WB dropped that Essential had moved back to the coalition in last week’s single week polling, it looks like it has gone the other way now. ]
Interesting. But probably just means that Essential is bouncy on a week to week basis at the moment.
The take out though is what’s reflected on Bludgertrack and places like Mark the Ballot. The Libs are seriously stuck on somewhere in the 47 – 48% level and nothing they have tried over the last year or more has changed that.
Their only hope is that Tony is right ( LoL!) with his “Captains Call” that he can turn 48 into 50+ during an election campaign.
And his other calls have worked out just soooooooo well………
BBS,
Do you approve of the Andrews Government decision to remove the railway crossing at Blackburn Road?
IT at 3772
[TPOF offered environmental benefits as a rationale for allocating fuel excise to country roads. A couple of us have criticised this as a justification for spending the money on rural roads. If there are more important reasons then spell them out rather than use an environmental red herring.]
If you had read my post at 3768 you would have seen this point addressed. For what it is worth, your responses to me basically did sound like you did not give a damn about fixing country roads, so I’m not surprised Zoomster arced up.
By the way, I drive on some of the best roads in the country and rarely leave Canberra, so its no big personal benefit to me that this money is spent on regional and rural roads. But I did have to drive to Cootamundra recently and was not impressed by the poor and dangerous conditions of the roads I drove on – including the Barton Highway, which is a national disgrace and one of the great death traps in southern NSW.
It’s going to be difficult when a country changes sides from enemy of Oz to friend. The ME is built on shifting sands.
@FarrellPF: Zaky Mallah: I stand by what I said on Q&A. Australia needs to hear it http://t.co/bDvYxxWl9m
[Is it still up to Dutton to judge ‘conduct’?]
One of the great mysteries of the world is how such a nong as Peter Dutton can be a senior cabinet minister. Being from Queensland must help. It must piss off that part of the backbench with average IQ or higher.
It’s Time
and I was responding to Raaraa’s comment, not TPOFs.
[How the Greens and Labor, both committed to a price on carbon, could not support it because it was regressive was beyond me]
It was worth it just because it got Smoking Joe to say that poor people don’t drive.
zoomster@3740
Z
Please re-read my initial comment. I did not say any of the things you accuse me of saying. If the motivation for the fixing of rural roads are environmental benefits, that you’ve got it the wrong way round.
I did not say fixing rural roads is anti-environment. I’m saying, you have to find a better motivation to fix rural roads (and there are plenty). If you want to bring environmental benefits as a reason to fixing rural roads, then people will rebutt with the point that there will be more cost-effective ways to reduce carbon footprint by fixing the transport situation in the cities.
If you want to fix rural roads, start with the eliminating dangerous major intersections, and improve the quality and safety measures of well used links between rural cities and towns.
You could also reopened mothballed stations and lines in rural regions (where currently being replaced by buses) and reintroduce government subsidies for these.
I have no issues with Labor negotiating with the Coalition on the cost indexing of fuel excise to inflation. I just wonder why this wasn’t brought up when the Coalition brought this debate in the first time around.
Bastard! Verballing Bret again.
BBS,
Actually, Shephard’s comments were really most relevant to the beltway types.
However, out in the burbs no one is particularly agitated about Labor having union links and Abbott is increasingly being seen as a mad raving uncle with a lamp shade over his head and his pants at half mast.
The voters are not listening to Tony’s rants and that can only spell trouble for him and his colleagues.
[One of the great mysteries of the world is how such a nong as Peter Dutton can be a senior cabinet minister. Being from Queensland must help. It must piss off that part of the backbench with average IQ or higher.]
He’s a champion of the right for knocking off Cheryl Kernot.
Abbott lyng about Bret Walker SC again. Public comments by Mr Walker are clear
GG
Having seen a goodly part of my life slip away and my blood pressure rise whilst waiting for the trains to go past – who could not approve. I will put my NIMBY hat on here and hope that it doesn’t bring more traffic into the area – time will tell on that one. You must remember that it (and St Albans and Hetherdale) were fully funded under the previous government so it is just fortuitous that it is all ready to go at this stage. It will be interesting to see when the next tranche come out.