Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest poll from Ipsos records Labor and Bill Shorten rebounding from a soft result last month.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. I don’t begrudge someone being professionally successful but surely if you earn that career by stating a certain set of values then it is a bit rich to turn your back on those values, I know we can change our views over time but the basic values remain somewhat fixed.

  2. Morgan confirms the LNP vote is tanking over the last fortnight.

    Thanks Tones (SSM) and Joe Hockey (House prices), for reminding us how out of touch the government really is.

  7. mex
    Why deliberately increase an admittedly regressive tax in a country where inequality of wealth and income and poverty are getting worse when, for example, a simple increase in the maximum marginal income tax bracket will provide the same government revenue and have a lesser impact on fewer people?

    Easier to hurt the poor than target the LNP core support group?

  9. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/bishop-accused-of-changing-hansard/story-e6frg6nf-1111117571324

    [JULIE Bishop has now been accused of altering the parliamentary record over her defence against allegations she gave a speech that plagiarised the Wall Street Journal.

    In a day of gaffes yesterday for the new treasury spokesman, it was revealed that she had wrongly identified the Reserve Bank’s official interest rate and lifted sentences for a speech to Parliament on the financial crisis from the newspaper.

    The Australian Online reported last night that a Coalition staffer had confessed to cutting and pasting the offending sentences from an article in the Journal. But Ms Bishop has declined to blame the staffer, instead simply confirming she had not read the article and describing criticism of her was “puerile.”

    Now the government says her explanation of the incident has been altered in the parliamentary record.]

  11. [
    “If the payment to the ship crew members is not an Australian policy, but it is proven that some people from the Australian authorities have paid the crew members to divert their passengers to another destination, Indonesia could request Australia bring them to justice for allegedly committing human trafficking to Indonesia,” he said.]

    The Indonesian government is playing this issue for all it is worth, for domestic consumption. Abbott showed them how to do it.

  12. [
    I’d support a GST Increase IF and only IF the States get rid of all stamp duties as promised when the original GST was agreed to.
    The states are now double dipping.
    I was super annoyed receiving my Home Insurance quote the other day to see I am now paying 9% Stamp Duty on my Home Insurance and then an additional 10% GST on top of the total. That works out to be a combined state tax rate of 19.9%.
    What a flapping joke!]

    Quiz for smarter PB’ers what is the only Stamp Duty the states undertook to remove but didn’t remove (as far as I can tell)?

  13. [Telling that Peter Dutton tweet still has <50 retweets]

    5 for each point of IQ.

    Expecting Newspoll to be contrary and move to the Libs just because.

  14. [mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 5:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Tricot

    I agree about a third wont care and will stay with the Liberals but that leaves up to 70% that might be outraged.]

    That’s pretty much the theory I have been pushing over the last couple of days. Abbott is in effect angling for a demographic which is already going to vote for him, whilst running the risk of severely damaging his credibility in the eyes of everybody else.

    We don’t know yet, but it’s possible it could be a huge own goal.

  15. @BernardKeane: well done @PeterDutton_MP – 108 minutes in, you’ve cracked the 50 RTs! Hope you didn’t spend $5K a pop for those extra RTs.

  16. [Jewel Topsfield ‏@JewelTopsfield · 2m2 minutes ago
    Fairfax told Agus, the Oz official who allegedly made $US5000 payments, wore no uniform. He moved between Navy and customs ships #auspol]

  18. adrian and JimmyDoyle re:OnWaterGate

    If the allegations are true that Australian Officials paid people smugglers on Ashmore Reef, the offence will be punishable under Australia Law; since the Reef is a territory of Australia, and its territorial waters extend 22km around the reef.

  20. “@KJBar: Soooo.. I am thrilled to let you all know that I am joining the soon to be launched @HuffPostAU as Politics Editor.”

  21. Potato Head is the star performer of this Government. He has handled the bribery scandal deftly with not the slightest amount of blowback coming towards him or his Government.

    His giggling at Ray Hadley’s brilliantly satirical song, did not show him to be a sexist pig, no no, but what a principled man of the people Potato Head is. He’ll be the toast of every backyard bbq, he reckons, because he has the guts to stand up to those feminazi Greens.

    His character assassination of Gillian Triggs, that worthless defender of the innocent, demonstrated what a strong man Potato Head is, a strong, courageous, virile man who will show no fear in taking the fight up to those nasty human rights lawyers, those pesky judges, those abominable refugees, and those lazy protesters.

    He truly is the spiritual successor of Tony “People Skills” Abbott. His political nous is there for all to see. He is leadership material. You heard it here first.

  24. 708
    Trand
    Telling that Peter Dutton tweet still has <50 retweets

    To be fair to Dutton, that could very well be an accurate reflection of the level of support the Government has at the present moment.

  28. I can confirm that Mr. van Onselen has not exclaimed anything on Twitter in the last 4 hours. I expect a wowser, zomg, herpaderp or omgwtfbbq is imminent as soon as he gets the leak.

    Of course, now that he’s not doing the evening show, maybe he’s not on the leak list any more.

  29. Millennial at #718

    I think the fact that the customs/patrol boat whatever is Australian will suffice to render the offence applicable to Australian law?

  31. Millennial @ 718 – but conveniently the organisation able to investigate, the AFP, is hopelessly compromised by its intimate role in anti-people smuggling operations, and also rather conveniently, the decision to prosecute any law-breaking rests with the Attorney-General.

  33. Success does not make one beyond reproach. It does breed arrogance and contempt.

    Those people who are not part of the Coalition’s tribe are going to see in the Coalition’s constant repetiton of “we stopped the boats” a claim that success lets them dismiss critics and do what they like.

  34. [Kathy Jackson turned Craig Thomson’s amateur cottage industry efforts into an industrial strength rort that it is alleged relieved the HSU of upwards of $1.4 million.]

    They both learned from the master, Michael Williamson.

  35. I see the three stooges still have not come clean on Operation Border-Line Sociopath.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-15/people-smugglers-abbott-bishop-dutton-refuse-discuss-payments/6547224

    They must have finally realised it is illegal. Surely the Senate can start calling people as witnesses? is there nobody who can complain to the AFP to get this investigated?

    BTW the failure of Abbott, Dutton and Bishop to answer questions also marks a new low for house speaker, the other Bishop. On a topic that the coalition itself has said is “vital to our national security” and which affects our foreign affairs, she will not insist that a question be answered.

  36. If the Liberals had “stopped the boats” there would be no boats to bribe. I think this is more damaging than $30,000US. Of the things said by the Liberals what can be believed.

  37. http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/eric-abetz-likely-to-force-another-abbott-reshuffle-20150614-ghnkux
    [Eric Abetz likely to force another Abbott reshuffle
    Jun 14 2015 at 11:59 PM Updated Jun 15 2015 at 5:51 AM
    by Joe Aston

    Just six months since Tony Abbott reshuffled his frontbench (a fair sight earlier than the PM wanted to, thanks to the NSW corruption watchdog delaying its findings from hearings that involved Arthur Sinodinos), Canberra is again abuzz with talk of another ministerial rejig.

    Recent commentary has brought into question the futures of Treasurer Joe Hockey and Attorney-General George Brandis.

    And that’s all perfectly valid, but we reckon it’s the government’s Senate leader Eric Abetz who, as Sinodinos did last Christmas, will most likely force the PM’s hand.

    Abetz has taken leave to deal with a grave family health issue and it’s entirely possible he will not return to ministerial duties in this term of government.

    Brandis is Abetz’s deputy in the Senate but, surely, the PM wouldn’t entrust him with leading the chamber semi-permanently after his cavalier performance reading poetry in estimates? Although stranger things have happened.

    Finance minister Mathias Cormann would be the most logical replacement for Abetz.

    Abbott had always planned a big reshuffle in the second half of 2015, to take a fresh team into the 2016 election. But it’s hard to say how much his thinking has been affected by last year’s reshuffle or any changes in the planned timing of the next poll.

    Veterans like Kevin Andrews, Andrew Robb and Ian Macfarlane were always expected to spend their last months on the backbench to blood the younger cavalry in big roles, but their tenures are now looking far more certain than others in the cabinet. How fickle Canberra is.]

  38. Toolman in full turd polishing mode on ABC news, in a report that could have been written by his mate Mark Simkin. The ABC is almost as big a disgrace as this government.

  39. Ullman showed the government idea of a get out of jail card. Namely intelligence officers are not accountable legally for actions they take outside our borders.

    Too clever by half. The law will catch up with them somewhere and certainly will catch up with Brandis as the minister directing him

  40. frednk

    [ If the Liberals had “stopped the boats” there would be no boats to bribe. I think this is more damaging than $30,000US. Of the things said by the Liberals what can be believed. ]

    How about “We stopped the economy!”

  41. [Indonesia’s Vice President Jusuf Kalla has said that paying off people smugglers – the claim made against Australian officials – amounts to bribery, in an escalation of diplomatic tensions.

    “It is wrong for a person to bribe, let alone a state. Such an act is definitely incorrect in the context of bilateral relations,” Mr Kalla​ said, while adding Indonesia was still checking whether the allegations were true.

    And Jakarta has also hit back at Foreign Minister Julie Bishop’s attack on its failures on people smuggling, with government spokesman Agus Barnas saying that many more boats would come Australia’s way if Indonesia did not enforce its borders.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesian-vice-president-jusuf-kalla-calls-smuggler-payments-bribes-20150615-ghoo4q.html

    Sounds like the high seas payoff actually has happened.

  43. [adrian
    Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 7:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Toolman in full turd polishing mode on ABC news, in a report that could have been written by his mate Mark Simkin. The ABC is almost as big a disgrace as this government.]

    Perehaps Ullmann wants to join Simpkin as a Ministerial PR person. Of course, that would pitch him against Gai Brodtmann MP, his other half.

  46. guytaur:

    These tweets say it all:

    [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 4h4 hours ago
    Refusing to details operational particulars is one thing, and valid. This is a question of brown paper bags & cash for criminals ffs!

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 5h5 hours ago
    It is so intellectually vacuous to dismiss questions about paying people smugglers by saying “we stopped the boats”. Breathtaking really…]

    When your own side are fed up with the hiding…

  47. [guytaur
    Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 7:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Ullman showed the government idea of a get out of jail card. Namely intelligence officers are not accountable legally for actions they take outside our borders.]

    Along with other commentators, Uhlmann seems to be admitting that the payment took place.

  49. confessions

    PvO’s program has recently been canned on Sky and today was absent from his replacement gig . PvO may be getting a bit bolshie.

  50. “@zackster: But It’s not the agents who should be prosecuted, it’s the Minister(s) who are responsible #abc730”

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