The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.
[ @ListenSport
Wtf!! Lib smarty and former Howard cos graham Morris Says the boat smuggler bribery was petrol money #auspol]
For TBA
@GuardianAus: Fact 2: There’s no official queue for people coming to Australia seeking a safe place to live http://t.co/g0CQ4tREh9 http://t.co/nXtX5tETdF
[ The PM needs to stand back and see the patterns forming. I have no doubt Julie Bishop has already. ]
I have no doubt that Morrison is paying close attention. 🙂
He strikes me as the nasty ambush predator type.
So where do they buy petrol in the middle of the Indian Ocean?
[ smuggler bribery was petrol money ]
Yeah that fits. There are like so many places to fill up and grab a coffee out there. 🙂
[ So where do they buy petrol in the middle of the Indian Ocean? ]
Xmas Island?? 🙂
Lots of Shells around I guess.
[Pam Walker
Brandis will choose winners and losers in the arts. This govt is gobbling up ministerial power at an alarming rate]
[651
lizzie
@ListenSport
Wtf!! Lib smarty and former Howard cos graham Morris Says the boat smuggler bribery was petrol money #auspol]
Without intending to, Morris has given the game away on the boat return system – every time Australia has supplied a vessel, or fuel, water and other supplies for a voyage, any equipment or navigation aids or safety gear, any time a boat has been towed back to Indonesian waters, Australia has been engaging in human trafficking.
Australia is probably the only State with an official policy that amounts to trafficking.
It’s no wonder the LNP want to suppress all reporting of these activities since they are most likely all contrary to the Criminal Code.
guytaur@590
Always suspected that to most voters the boats issue was as much a proxy measure of government performance as it was an actual issue itself.
Worth watching the Drum tonight. David Marr is on the panel and sure to come up some colourful phrases on the boat payment issue.
We will decides who smuggles people and the circumstances in which they will be smuggled.
It seems that Dutton is not getting a lot of love on Twitter so he’s blocking anyone who’s nasty to him. 😀
So the LNP policy selection gets down to this –
Either
Australia will traffic humans into another jurisdiction and into captivity;
or
Australia will use military and extra-legal paramilitary force to subject refugees to arbitrary imprisonment in circumstances where they will be deprived of judicial protection and may expect violent and degrading treatment of various kinds, up to and including sexual assault and murder.
This is it.
Australia is now one of the domains where vulnerable people will be subject to secret state persecution. It is also an offence to publish information about this persecution.
Tyranny has been erected using fear and hate before our very eyes.
Whole panel scathing of government on the Drum tonight
An increase in the GST rate to 12.5% would extrapolating out the second half of 2014 produce an extra 6.75 billion pa (unadjusted for growth etc) labor should run with it (and not to give straight to the states show leadership and break the stupid connection with the states for the new portion.
briefly @ 664 – further to your point, if meher baba is right and Australian law does not apply to customs vessels operations on the high seas in this case, then Australia is essentially acting in total disregard for international law. Australia is now essentially operating as if international waters exist in a state of anarchy. This is not tenable.
David Marr
[Australia is now known as a country that will bribe people]
“@NickFeik: Look fwd to Bronwyn Bishop on #qanda speaking about the separation of powers, and Bret Walker and Gillian Triggs staring at her open-mouthed”
Bordering the GST would in my view be more effective than increasing the rate.
Abbott absolutely has to go.
Gee, what with the boats sinking, the economy tanking and the polls drooping, not much to cheer up the LNP at the moment.
Perhaps Newspoll can manufacture a bit of blue sky for them?
What a gem of a line from Abbott – By(buy) hook or by (buy) crook we will stop the boats.
Mind you, there were rusted-ons today on talk-back making the point that it is cheaper to pay off the people smugglers than land the AS.
We just have to face up to the fact that 30%?? of the electorate doesn’t want to know/hear about what tactics this (or any other government uses) to stop the boats.
In this respect I think Abbott is on a winner with this lot.
Of course, history tells us other things.
The ordinary Germans/Poles/French and others during WW2 always believed those Jews in the trains were off on holidays.
When some saw the camps at the end of the war – after being invited to do so by the US troops at the time, these same Germans believed their soldiers were “too decent” to carry out the atrocities they were obliged to look at.
Some of our fellow citizens fit into the same category I fear.
[@ListenSport
Wtf!! Lib smarty and former Howard cos graham Morris Says the boat smuggler bribery was petrol money #auspol]
Just askin’ … just how many petrol stations are there between Ashgrove Reef and Indonesia.
Did the Navy/spooks/Immigration give the smugglers boats without any fuel in them?
So much for drownings at sea.
Tricot
I agree about a third wont care and will stay with the Liberals but that leaves up to 70% that might be outraged.
Re Just Me @660: Always suspected that to most voters the boats issue was as much a proxy measure of government performance as it was an actual issue itself.
I think that this would be true for many voters, as evidenced by the Opposition’s constantly stoking the issue and even blocking possible solutions. It also helped them to hide most of their real agenda. While people were focused on boats they weren’t thinking about health, education, jobs…
Also, probably just as importantly, they were a convenient dogwhistle that appealed to a key demographic who had been part of Labor’s natural constituency. This was not a big proportion of voters and not a majority of Western Sydney voters, but a key 1 or 2% at the margins coming your way is a big help.
Re Just Me @660: Always suspected that to most voters the boats issue was as much a proxy measure of government performance as it was an actual issue itself.
I think that this would be true for many voters, as evidenced by the Opposition’s constantly stoking the issue and even blocking possible solutions. It also helped them to hide most of their real agenda. While people were focused on boats they weren’t thinking about health, education, jobs…
Also, probably just as importantly, they were a convenient dogwhistle that appealed to a key demographic who had been part of Labor’s natural constituency. This was not a big proportion of voters and not a majority of Western Sydney voters, but a key 1 or 2% at the margins coming your way is a big help.
Further to my comment @ 667, if the allegations are true (and it’s looking like it is safe to say it is) then these bribes are both a breach of Australian and international law. One or the other must have been in operation at the time the bribes took place, wherever they took place. Meher baba is entirely incorrect to suggest that a crime has not occurred.
670
I think you mean broadening not bordering.
The GST should be extended to healthcare and education (with exceptions such as bulk billing services, non-cosmetic dentistry (until bulk billing extends to dentistry), glasses and HECS/CSP contributions) as they are areas where wealthier people spend more money than poor people and so the GST would be more progressive.
TTFB
The GST is a regressive tax. It should not exist. However it does. We can however prevent it getting worse by broadening it.
Anyone that argues broadening it is progressive is living in a fools paradise.
[Further to my comment @ 667, if the allegations are true (and it’s looking like it is safe to say it is) then these bribes are both a breach of Australian and international law. One or the other must have been in operation at the time the bribes took place, wherever they took place. Meher baba is entirely incorrect to suggest that a crime has not occurred.]
Exactly. Whichever way you cut it, it is likely that criminal activity has taken place, either in breach of Australian or international law, or both if these payments have been made.
Steve777
Agree. As much a smokescreen, unicorn, and dog whistle as anything else.
Well this week we have all the fear stops pulled out; what next?
“@TonyHWindsor: ” I will do anything to get the job ,the only thing I won’t do is sell my arse”-this guy will do anything to keep it-where is Liberal Party?”
MB
Trouble is some of the 30% (and quite frankly I haven’t a clue what the percentage is) are nominally Labor voters.
Social conservatism, racism and the like are not the preserve of Liberal/LNP voters.
We all know there are members of the Labor party who would be equally at home in among the Liberals or back in the day, the DLP.
I have just listened to Martin Ferguson on local radio who I had to think hard was ever a member of the Labor party with some of his current views about penalty rates.
lizzie
Morrison was hilarious in his wriggling after the “petrol money” comment . Always good to watch a super shill in action . They are like those movies that are so bad they are good to watch.
So, Ipsos and Morgan both heading in the same direction. 🙂
Await Newspoll with interest.
frednk
[
Well this week we have all the fear stops pulled out; what next?]
After Abbott’s claim about ISIS are a comin’ for all of us to demand “submit or die” I can’t see how he will be able to top that effort.
[“I wasn’t aware that anyone other than perhaps Thompson himself still thinks there’s a shred of doubt about his guilty.”]
You should check out the website “Independent Australia” then!
Place is full of crackpots who reckon it’s all a big Liberal Party/Kathy Jackson conspiracy against poor ol’ Craig.
I personally think this is bad for Craigs mental health to have these delusions reinforced by other crackpots.
Tricot
[I have just listened to Martin Ferguson on local radio who I had to think hard was ever a member of the Labor party with some of his current views about penalty rates.]
The Ferguson’s are all part of a dynasty and almost all of family have some sort of job in the Parliament. Martin was obviously looking for good money.
I’d support a GST Increase IF and only IF the States get rid of all stamp duties as promised when the original GST was agreed to.
The states are now double dipping.
I was super annoyed receiving my Home Insurance quote the other day to see I am now paying 9% Stamp Duty on my Home Insurance and then an additional 10% GST on top of the total. That works out to be a combined state tax rate of 19.9%.
What a flapping joke!
679
Whether or not broadening the GST is progressive or not depends on what it is extended to. If it is extended to goods and services bought mainly by wealthier people and not much by poorer people, then it becomes more progressive. If however it is extended to fresh food, then it becomes more regressive.
[@ListenSport
Wtf!! Lib smarty and former Howard cos graham Morris Says the boat smuggler bribery was petrol money #auspol]
Obviously it was to pay for fuel for their next trip south where they could collect more petrol money…ad infinitum
MTBW
Not only that, but his voice was barely recognisable. “Gentrified” is the best I can come up with.
Gone is the knock-about-Aussi twang and a more pompous, business-like tone now evident.
I guess that is part of the sell out by him.
[fredex
Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 3:59 pm | PERMALINK
That Morgan poll was conducted over 2 weekends so does not fully include the impact of the boats fiasco.]
Or Hockey’s faux pas over housing affordability.
[Sean Parnell @seanparnell · 13m13 minutes ago
In which Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, never one to play politics, declares it is Labor not answering questions: pic.twitter.com/f9j7Ge08Ll ]
Dutton gets stuck into Tanya.
I agree with Tom, the GST can be extended without adversely affecting lower income people
Tricot
So Marn Fersun is now Mah-tun Fahr-gusson ?
Tricot
He would think of himself as a top dog and to think that he was once the leader of the left in NSW.
Just browsing the Jakarta Post
[A professor of international law from the University of Indonesia, Hikmahanto Juwana, said on Monday that Indonesia could request the Australian government punish the Australian officials who had allegedly paid a ship’s crew members to reroute asylum seekers they were carrying back to Indonesia.
“Foreign Minister Retno L.Marsudi has requested the Australian ambassador to Indonesia to give clarification on the matter. The clarification is aimed at determining whether such payments are Australian government policy,” he said as quoted by Antara.
The law expert was speaking in response to widespread suspicions that Australian authorities were striving to reject refugees seeking asylum in the country by paying crew members to divert them to another country.
Hikmahanto said if it was proven that the asylum boat payment was an Australian policy, then Australia as a Refugee Convention member state had violated the international law.
“If the payment to the ship crew members is not an Australian policy, but it is proven that some people from the Australian authorities have paid the crew members to divert their passengers to another destination, Indonesia could request Australia bring them to justice for allegedly committing human trafficking to Indonesia,” he said.]
– See more at: http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/06/15/ri-urged-call-sanctions-over-australia-s-asylum-boat-payment.html#sthash.M1lXDk43.dpuf
[Place is full of crackpots who reckon it’s all a big Liberal Party/Kathy Jackson conspiracy against poor ol’ Craig.
]
It was a politician persecution and a prosecution that did more damage to justice in our society than it delivered. Justice needs not only to be done it needs to be seen to be done and such a selective political prosecution should not have been allowed to proceed.